99% losers

[joeyspicks]

Its been stated with "authority" that 99% of all horse players lose money (guaranteed). Now this board has 137 active members(online right now) and since I have been a winning player for 5 straight years I assume the rest of you poor s.o.b.'s are losing :lol: :rolleyes: ......a LOT of money!!

Why would anyone stay involved in a pursuit that they believe has such a small chance of success ? ? ?

Why would you spend money and time on a "business" of failure? ? (where a mystical 1% has all the money ? ?)


These statements and guarantees reflect your personal experince and may be true for you....but I think (just maybe) there are more than a couple other guys on this board that honestly make money.

[twindouble]

Its been stated with "authority" that 99% of all horse players lose money (guaranteed). Now this board has 137 active members and since I have been a winning player for 5 straight years I assume the rest of you poor s.o.b.'s are losing :lol: :rolleyes: ......a LOT of money!!

Why would anyone stay involved in a pursuit that they believe has such a small chance of success ? ? ?

Why would you spend money and time on a "business" of failure? ? (where a mystical 1% has all the money ? ?)


These statements and guarantees reflect your personal experince and may be true for you....but I think (just maybe) there are more than a couple other guys on this board that honestly make money.

Joey; I've been losing for 45 years now, I've got a freaking gold mine in my back yard. :lol:

[RXB]

From another post of yours, Joey:

"For example it took me something like 15 years to learn what it took to win money( not handicap!) The past 5 years have been very very good to me. I play completly different and have had a positive ROI over those 5 years. Have I made enough to wipe out the years I was losing? NOPE!"

When you have wiped out the losing years, and you get ahead, and then you stay ahead, I'll count you as a winning player. Because as of right now, if you hadn't made a wager in your life, you'd have more money than you do now. Same like the vast majority of us.

[joeyspicks]

true!

no denial on that.

Invest in any business and you have a "period of time" before you are profitable (meaning positive cash flow). Once you reach positive cash flow and are able to stay there....it again is only a matter of time. ALL business has a learning curve. ALL have capital requirements. All take years to become and stay profitable. But having a positive cash flow (monthly withdraw......NOT deposits) for 60 + months is an indication that I am "profitable".
Cash flow is KING in business (by your definition AMAZON is a loser).....and positive cash flow changes EVERYTHING.

[RXB]

Hey, if you've made money for five years running you're in select company. Good on you.

What I'm saying is: ain't no preseasons, no mulligans when you bet money. Every dime is counted. So by my definition, a winning player is someone who is on the positive side of the ledger when every bet is counted.

[twindouble]

From another post of yours, Joey:

"For example it took me something like 15 years to learn what it took to win money( not handicap!) The past 5 years have been very very good to me. I play completly different and have had a positive ROI over those 5 years. Have I made enough to wipe out the years I was losing? NOPE!"

When you have wiped out the losing years, and you get ahead, and then you stay ahead, I'll count you as a winning player. Because as of right now, if you hadn't made a wager in your life, you'd have more money than you do now. Same like the vast majority of us.


RXB, your winning now that's all that counts, the prior years you just paid your dues. Some guys reach that curve sooner than others. A good percentage of people get into racing the wrong way with foolish expectations, even here it's hard to weed out what's sound advise and what isn't.

I don't think it's good to measure todays success on other years of failure like you have to make up for it. It's good to hear from someong that turned things around and learned by mistakes or maybe got some good advise along the way.

Good luck and continued success.

T.D.

[kenwoodallpromos]

That is 1.37- Since I win at least 37% of my bets, I will claim to be the other .37!LOL.
Seriously, If you ever find a genuine "authority" in horseracing you will be an instant millionaire!

[midnight]

Another thing that isn't factored in is the time involved. You can't ever get time back. I'm well ahead over the 32 years I've been playing, but when time is factored in----nope, not worth it, from a business standpoint. There has to be some value added as entertainment, or it isn't worth it.

[joeyspicks]

MIDNIGHT: time! Yes you are so right.

I'm struggling now to try to reduce the time involved because of health issue's with my wife. Time is a huge consideration............all the more reason I marvel at anyone who keeps coming back......spending both time and money, when they have a belief that they have absolutely NO CHANCE at long term profits. IF you believe that 99% lose than thats what you are setting yourself up for. I would advise..........simply spend your time on something else, unless the entertainment factor outweighs your expense...( in precious time and money).

Everyone has three basic "commodities" : TIME, ENERGY, & MONEY. None are infinite (individually). So in continual losing a person is not just wasting money, but also his TIME & ENERGY. It may be "worth" it in entertainment value alone
or if you are constantly frustrated and hurting yourself it may not be!

[twindouble]

MIDNIGHT: time! Yes you are so right.

I'm struggling now to try to reduce the time involved because of health issue's with my wife. Time is a huge consideration............all the more reason I marvel at anyone who keeps coming back......spending both time and money, when they have a belief that they have absolutely NO CHANCE at long term profits. IF you believe that 99% lose than thats what you are setting yourself up for. I would advise..........simply spend your time on something else, unless the entertainment factor outweighs your expense...( in precious time and money).

Everyone has three basic "commodities" : TIME, ENERGY, & MONEY. None are infinite (individually). So in continual losing a person is not just wasting money, but also his TIME & ENERGY. It may be "worth" it in entertainment value alone
or if you are constantly frustrated and hurting yourself it may not be!

Joey; Sorry to hear about your wifes health problems, hope all turns out well. Your advise is good for anyone who's constantly struggling to get in the black throwing good money after bad. RXB was able to over come it from what he says and I trust he's being honest, after all he admitted losing for 15 years. I would have quit long before that.

I posted a thread a while back on time spent on the horses, everyone agreed it can be costly and intertaining. Striking out a balance is also very difficult for most, that clearly was the results.

I have a different take on, time, winning and enjoyment. I think that balance can be achieved within reason. I don't subcribe to the idea you have be some kind of handicapping guru to do it. Common sense application is forefront in what I'm saying and yes, K.I.S.S. does apply as well.

Sorry, supper is coming out of the oven, I'll be back.

[Nickle]

Most of us bet for action and competiton and not to win. I like the action myself.

[46zilzal]

never understood "action" ......is that the equivalent of a "charge" or something? heart rate goes up????

[Nickle]

Kind of like a drug, yeh heart rate does go up also.

Basically just pumped up when horse running.

[twindouble]

never understood "action" ......is that the equivalent of a "charge" or something? heart rate goes up????

You kidding us right? Well, I hope you are. :faint:

[GaryG]

This just gets crazier....I think this thread has entered another dimension, not of sight and sound but of mind...

[twindouble]

Joey; Sorry to say, Rod Serling is on to us, we need to find another Zone. Maybe GaryG can rescue us and this thread?

[RaceIsClosed]

Another thing that isn't factored in is the time involved. You can't ever get time back. I'm well ahead over the 32 years I've been playing, but when time is factored in----nope, not worth it, from a business standpoint. There has to be some value added as entertainment, or it isn't worth it.

One reason I bet a lot per race and get aggressive when ahead is the time factor. I want the day over in 3-6 hours, and either have a large profit I can live off of for a few months, or a fun day that didn't cost too much.

A "professional horseplayer" begins every month with a loss equal to his living expenses, and must dig himself out of that hole before he pays any other bills or, god forbid, has some fun.

[twindouble]

One reason I bet a lot per race and get aggressive when ahead is the time factor. I want the day over in 3-6 hours, and either have a large profit I can live off of for a few months, or a fun day that didn't cost too much.

A "professional horseplayer" begins every month with a loss equal to his living expenses, and must dig himself out of that hole before he pays any other bills or, god forbid, has some fun.

Maybe I am in another zone, I just don't get it. I never came close to what your saying, to me a professional player doesn't have that kind of pressure. I don't concider myself a professional player because I don't do it for a living but that don't mean I can't be "professional" in my approach to the game. Now what he heck does that mean? After 4 years on another forum, I was shocked with the different opinions that cropped up, it was like they were playing a different game than I was. I'm sure that's more than likely happened here as well. So, how do you seperate what counts in this game and what don't? I could write a book on the subject if I knew how to go about it. I've been on this forum for about 4 MO now, had a thread going for beginners with no responce to speak of so I figured everyone here has the game in their back pocket, maybe you do as well. So, I end up on the general forum getting a few laughs reading Tom's posts. If I had to go to war, I'd want him at my side, he's one mean sucker. :D

Anyway, if you or anyone have any questions I'll try to answer them, if not that's OK because there's plenty of savvy players here anyway. I hope you made enough to pay the bills today.

Good luck,

T.D.

[PaceAdvantage]

He ain't a pro...he's a gambler....

[twindouble]

He ain't a pro...he's a gambler....

I consider myself a gambler as well P.A. I don't know why others shy away from admitting it.

[RaceIsClosed]

[/b]

Maybe I am in another zone, I just don't get it. I never came close to what your saying, to me a professional player doesn't have that kind of pressure. I don't concider myself a professional player because I don't do it for a living but that don't mean I can't be "professional" in my approach to the game. Now what he heck does that mean? After 4 years on another forum, I was shocked with the different opinions that cropped up, it was like they were playing a different game than I was. I'm sure that's more than likely happened here as well. So, how do you seperate what counts in this game and what don't? I could write a book on the subject if I knew how to go about it. I've been on this forum for about 4 MO now, had a thread going for beginners with no responce to speak of so I figured everyone here has the game in their back pocket, maybe you do as well. So, I end up on the general forum getting a few laughs reading Tom's posts. If I had to go to war, I'd want him at my side, he's one mean sucker. :D

Anyway, if you or anyone have any questions I'll try to answer them, if not that's OK because there's plenty of savvy players here anyway. I hope you made enough to pay the bills today.

Good luck,

T.D.

A professional player always has pressure, because the second he stops winning, his net worth begins going down, and he starts wondering if he'll rebound or keep going broke. At what point should he quit if he's losing?

My original remark was that a professional player counts his living expenses as losses, which means he starts every month several thousand dollars in the hole, and can't rely on another income to dig him out of it.

[GaryG]

I know I could make more money in business and my hourly wage is not high, but it sure is a good life and I wouldn't change if I could. I am lucky enough to have a dear wife that feels the same way! Best to all.

[karlskorner]

After reading this thread and others I got to wondering about the percentage of "winning players" that there really are. SoCalfan stated on another thread that she has been attending "live" racing for 40 years, I have been a daily attendant for 25 years, I am quite sure that there are a score of others on this board doing the same thing or at least going to OTB. I have to discount the "at home playes" who play over the internet as they are an island unto themsleves.

What I am getting at is that as I walk through the 4 floors and paddock at CRC daily, I see the same 300/400 people who have been there as long as I have, are they all "winning" players ? This 1 percent, 5 percent or what ever "winning" players that keeps getting thrown about has to have some bases. Are these 300/400 people I see everyday "winning players" ? CRC has a average daily attendance of 3000/4000 people daily ( as do most tracks ) so in my mind about 10 percent are " winning players " or else they wouldn't be coming back day after day, year after year. I think I am alot closer to the number of "winning players" estimated at 10 percent rather than the 1-5 percent as stated.

[GaryG]

Karl, that seems about right to me. I attended daily in CA for nearly 30 years before becoming "an island unto myself". I knew most of the regulars to say hello to, but they mostly kept to themselves as I did. Never got into any philosophical discussions because everyone was busy trying to hold his own life together. I do miss the color and excitement though, especially in the old days when the crowds were big and enthusiastic. I don't think winning players want to advertise the fact. I know I never did for fear I would run into the IRS. :eek:

[kenwoodallpromos]

"in my mind about 10 percent are " winning players " or else they wouldn't be coming back day after day."
If true, I learned something new today. I have no idea.

[twindouble]

A professional player always has pressure, because the second he stops winning, his net worth begins going down, and he starts wondering if he'll rebound or keep going broke. At what point should he quit if he's losing?

My original remark was that a professional player counts his living expenses as losses, which means he starts every month several thousand dollars in the hole, and can't rely on another income to dig him out of it.

That puts things in a different light but it does support our clowdy perceptions of what a professional horse player is and how he goes about playing the game. Like I said, I never had to keep bailing out the ship to stay afloat, sure there was years where I had to work harder to patch up some leaks but not under the kind of pressure your discribing, that I believe inabled me to make a come back, as a matter of fact one year I got off to a real bad start and it turned into one of my better years. Lucky,some times but I think the foundation I operate from was the key, otherwise I would have changed things that didn't need to be changed. Chacing is one huge mistake that I don't indulge in, for example.

I was on the road to explaining that foundation in the beginners thread but your no beginner. Besides I find it difficult to put it in coherent written form so I can understand why it got very little attention, plus it had nothing to do with handicapping software or numbers.

T.D.

[karlskorner]

You are so right "you have no idea", neither do I. I remember reading something by Randy Giles that there are 5 percent "winning players" and I often wondered how he came up with that amount, the man is a " at home player " who attends "live" racing occasionaly. Trying the method of " hello my name is Karl, are you a winning player" will get you no where. I would venture to say of the 2000 members of this board, about 10 percent are " winning players " or at least they imply such. I really believe that the so called 5 percent "winning players" was made up by "system sellers" trying to induce buyers of their "systems" to join that "exclusive club" of 5 percent winners. Who needs their "system" if there were 50 percent "winning players"

[joeyspicks]

I would say 10-15% is much closer than 1%. The amazing thing to me is this is the same pct quoted for profitable commodity traders. Year in and year out. Both "markets" have people who proclaim "its impossible" to make a profit and anyone who says different is lying. Both have a tremendous amount of people looking for the mythical "black box" (the easy way to profits) and both have a hugh amount of "players" who are in it for the action (they may not admit this to anyone OR THEMSELVES). Most winners have a "method" or process that has been hard-earned and have somehow found a way to remove the ego from the decison making process. (a lot of good books have been recommended on this site.....I would recommend MARKET WIZARDS. Its about commodity traders who are wildly successful. No methods, or magic.....just insightful interviews with these traders. What struck me is the difference in style, type of trader, method, etc with these successful traders. Although completly different in method and style they all talk about the IMPORTANCE of conserving capital, money management, and removing ego involvement (emotional re-ACTIONs).

I started this thread because I believe there are at least 10-20 % winners in the horse "market". Some players who dont experience this make pronouncements of 99% losers
are simply REFLECTING THERE OWN EXPERIENCE.

[karlskorner]

There are " SNAKE OIL " sellers where ever there is money involved. We even have a few on this board. Their answer to the problem is buy from me and join that exclusive club of 5 percent winners.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I'm also wondering why you believe everone who are regulars are winners.
My experience is from bingo, where a lot of people go during the month until they ran out of money; the last few days of the month you could get as good seat!
The horsey losers I know play until they run out or play very wisely and pick their spots, but only when they run low!!LOL!! The $50-$100 per day gamblers turn into $10 per day with regularity!
I assume if you want to see a winner, look for the person sitting in a corner with his mouth shut and watching the tote board!

[Nickle]

Most regular horse players are lifetime losers, its no different than any other form of gambling.

[Vegas711]

I consider myself a gambler as well P.A. I don't know why others shy away from admitting it.

It goes back to the old saying: All gamblers die broke.

When you picture a gambler you have the mental image of a loser , blowing his paycheck at the slots.

Twin. Call yourself a Recreational Parimutual Invester it sounds better than a gambler.At the very least nobody will know what it is.

[Fastracehorse]

Most of us bet for action and competiton and not to win. I like the action myself.

But it doesn't work does it??

fffastt

[twindouble]

It goes back to the old saying: All gamblers die broke.

When you picture a gambler you have the mental image of a loser , blowing his paycheck at the slots.

Twin. Call yourself a Recreational Parimutual Invester.

That wouldn't go over very good with my buddies, they would toss me in the drink! :lol:

[jotb]

Its been stated with "authority" that 99% of all horse players lose money (guaranteed). Now this board has 137 active members(online right now) and since I have been a winning player for 5 straight years I assume the rest of you poor s.o.b.'s are losing :lol: :rolleyes: ......a LOT of money!!

Why would anyone stay involved in a pursuit that they believe has such a small chance of success ? ? ?

Why would you spend money and time on a "business" of failure? ? (where a mystical 1% has all the money ? ?)


These statements and guarantees reflect your personal experince and may be true for you....but I think (just maybe) there are more than a couple other guys on this board that honestly make money.


Hello all:

Unfortunately, you are not alone on this board. I've handicap a tad over 1000 races this year and my horses won 14% of the time but I manage to still make 6 figures. It took me many years (35+) to win at this game and I'm loving every minute of it...

Regards,
Joe

[Partsnut]

Unfortunately, you are not alone on this board. I've handicap a tad over 1000 races this year and my horses won 14% of the time but I manage to still make 6 figures.

You must be playing the exotics because your proported numbers indicates to me that you are definitely not a "win" player :eek:

[jotb]

You must be playing the exotics because your proported numbers indicates to me that you are definitely not a "win" player :eek:

Absolutely no exotics just wps.

Joe

[rastajenk]

Maybe the first five figures are zeroes.

[jotb]

Maybe the first five figures are zeroes.

Now was that necessary. I was not trying to push anyones buttons. I was just speaking the truth and show to other members that if you work hard at this game, sky's the limit. The PA members are astute individuals and most of them would love to be in a similar situation as myself. I spent many years searching the way to achieve goals that put me in this situation. Don't be angry at me. I hope someday you will be in the same situation..

Good luck to you,

Joe

[Vegas711]

Twin.

Tell them you have a PHD.................(Pace Handicapping Doctorate):lol:


This is why we pace handicappers think we are so damn smart.

[kenwoodallpromos]

When I bet my multiple longshots I sometimes win 5-10% but am ahead of the game. I totally believe your 14% can get it done if you bet "unpredictable" horses in "unpredictable"races.

[rastajenk]

No, it wasn't. I just saw an oppoturnity for a cheap shot. Good for you if you can master this discipline. I never could and gave up trying. At this point I'm more of a mere fan than an active participant, but there's good stuff on this board that I still find interesting. More power to ya.

[betchatoo]

I will make the very obvious observation that among the regulars on this board it is likely we have a higher percentage of winners than there is among the general betting population. The very fact that people here are constantly examining new ideas and exchanging viable concepts means that the interest in winning is high, and the willingness to work at being a winner is there.

Horse racing is a constantly changing game. The easy access to more information over the last several years has been beneficial to the public in general, but costly to those of us who worked at gathering that info before the public had knowledge of it. So we pursue new ways to stay ahead of the take.

It can sometimes be frustrating, but it's what makes the game so damn interesting

[PaceAdvantage]

Maybe the first five figures are zeroes.

That's an odd reply. Win% means little, and 14% isn't bad at all if your horses are paying on average over $20....lol

[frenchy]

The answer is :

WWW.BETFAIR.COM

Pick a looser !!! easy :D

[BIG RED]

I will make the very obvious observation that among the regulars on this board it is likely we have a higher percentage of winners than there is among the general betting population. The very fact that people here are constantly examining new ideas and exchanging viable concepts means that the interest in winning is high, and the willingness to work at being a winner is there.

Horse racing is a constantly changing game. The easy access to more information over the last several years has been beneficial to the public in general, but costly to those of us who worked at gathering that info before the public had knowledge of it. So we pursue new ways to stay ahead of the take.

It can sometimes be frustrating, but it's what makes the game so damn interesting

Well put, I agree

[Valuist]

It boils down to this: why care how the other players are doing......all one should be concerned with is their own bottom line.

[joeyspicks]

Valuest: of course you are right.....however I started this for those still searching ( and secretly WONDERING IF its possible ???)......I think there are a LOT of guys checking into this site who fit that catagory, and I cringe when someone announces (with total "authority") that 99% of players lose..

I KNOW its not only possible......but its possible to CHANGE the direction you are heading. . You must think its possible before you will even make the effort.

thats why

[twindouble]

It boils down to this: why care how the other players are doing......all one should be concerned with is their own bottom line.

It's no different than a bunch of fans getting together before and after a football game. It's called socializing with others that have something in common with you when you get right down to it. Further more, you just might meet someone that has a much better bottom line than you do for reasons you might have over looked. For example, I had no clue others out there were getting rebates untill I signed onto another forum, so I do care what others are doing.

[boxcar]

My original remark was that a professional player counts his living expenses as losses, which means he starts every month several thousand dollars in the hole, and can't rely on another income to dig him out of it.

Hmm...just like direct sales people who work on straight sales commiss, especially without a draw.

Boxcar

[46zilzal]

I have observed that the best handicappers are methodical objective and thorough while those traits serve one well on THAT side of the equation, the ones with the adventurous "devil may care" attitude, do better on the betting side of that same equation........Tough to shift all day

[Overlay]

I have observed that the best handicappers are methodical objective and thorough while those traits serve one well on THAT side of the equation, the ones with the adventurous "devil may care" attitude, do better on the betting side of that same equation........Tough to shift all day

I tend toward the methodical, objective, and quantifiable in both my handicapping and my wagering. What I wish I had was a greater intuitive sense for things like trainer moves, odds fluctuations, and the reasons why a horse is entered in a particular spot.

[boxcar]

I tend toward the methodical, objective, and quantifiable in both my handicapping and my wagering. What I wish I had was a greater intuitive sense for things like trainer moves, odds fluctuations, and the reasons why a horse is entered in a particular spot.

Well stated, Overlay. What you "wish" for is not only very intelligent, highly desirable and extremely useful, but within every handicapper's grasp, believe it or not.

Careful analysis of a horse's current chart can help you answer such fundamentally important questions as:

Why has the trainer entered his horse today in this particular race? Or is a horse today likely to improve its form or regress?

Once you learn how to dig into a horse's current chart to unearth the pertinent data therein, then analyze it properly you'll be able to reach intelligent, reasonable conclusions to these kinds of all-important questions. It's all matter of knowing what to look for, and then interpreting the raw data properly.

Boxcar

[fmhealth]

The ONLY winner I've ever met is my daughter. Since I put $5.00 in an envelope every time I go to the track. This year she's ahead $610.00. Not bad, but down from the $685 she "won" last year.

As for myself, after 47 years I'm still searching for my first winning season. Interesting thoughts on this thread as to why individuals like myself continue to pursue an activity that they apparently are ill-suited for. My response, it's the social interaction for many people that don't fit easily into what society considers "normal". 'Cappers are a subculture of society that finds "comfort" in a setting where the "abnormal" is actually the norm. There are plenty of others that we can relate too. I personally spend more time comparing option trading strategies with my "track friends" than I do discussing horses.

Most of my colleagues are retired executives like myself who are looking for some interesting, mentally challenging, time-consuming, and possibly profitable activities. We all lose. But that's hardly the point. We're actually "winners" because of the "psychic payoff" that accrues to us each day. Losing isn't fun, but it's more than offset by the collegial feeling that a day at the races produces.

For my $3,500 or so that I lose every year I get literally hundreds of enjoyable thought-provoking hours with "Runyonesque" types I meet at tracks all over the country. Hourly cost is a few bucks, end result is priceless.

[boxcar]

Now was that necessary. I was not trying to push anyones buttons. I was just speaking the truth and show to other members that if you work hard at this game, sky's the limit. The PA members are astute individuals and most of them would love to be in a similar situation as myself. I spent many years searching the way to achieve goals that put me in this situation. Don't be angry at me. I hope someday you will be in the same situation..

Good luck to you,

Joe

The man speaks the truth. It also took me years of hard work learning this game. But in the end, I reaped great dividends. The blood, sweat, tears, aggrivation, setbacks -- everything I invested paid off.

Boxcar

[hurrikane]

I'm not sure why the percent of winners is needed either.

either you are a winner or you are not. If you play $100,000 this year and have a 5% ROI or you play $10.00 this year with and ROI of 5.00. I guess you are both winning players. If you play 500,000 this year and have an ROI of 10% you may be able to live comfortably off that depending on the churn.

so the concept of being a winning horse player is not so strange. The concept of making a very good living off of it is not a lifestyle for everyone. And it shouldn't be for everyone. When I can make a lot of money in business and make good money in racing, loving both...I call that winning.

As long as your happy doing it.