30% Win at 2/1 average odds?

[danddiver]

Please forgive me for asking this question.
I know it's a negative situation but is there any software out there that consistantly produces these kinds of numbers.
I'm looking for something to build on.
I figure if using a software that gives me this kind of "black box" results coupled with additional handicapping and trainer intent would lead to consistent profits.
Am I smoking crack or can this be achieved?
Please no "you're an idiot comments".
Thanks all,
Dan :confused: :)

[Wizard of Odds]

Please forgive me for asking this question.
I know it's a negative situation but is there any software out there that consistantly produces these kinds of numbers.
I'm looking for something to build on.
I figure if using a software that gives me this kind of "black box" results coupled with additional handicapping and trainer intent would lead to consistent profits.
Am I smoking crack or can this be achieved?
Please no "you're an idiot comments".
Thanks all,
Dan :confused: :)


If you want to get close to the figures you quote, here is a relatively simple way to achieve it:

Bet the Morning Favorite (at major tracks) to win for each race. You will roughly produce the results you seek with virtually no effort or work....and no software required!

Hope this helps,

Wizard

[Dave Schwartz]

Dan,

IF I understand you correctly, what you are asking is something like, "Is there any software that produces an odds line which comes remotely close to what the public's betting looks like."

If I am correct, then one answer is our software, the HorseStreet Handicapper. Might I suggest that you sign up for tonight's Pre-Sales class?

http://www.horsestreet.com/ubb/Forum32/HTML/000006.html

Please note that I do not generally respond to questions about software with a "buy mine" type of answer. Your question, however, is absolutely what our software does best. And, taking into consideration the tremendous Christmas offer, I feel it is appropriate here.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[kenwoodallpromos]

I will vouch for Dave that he is not out just to sell something. He has a nice site with good stuff on it.

[danddiver]

A couple examles of ML since 11/02 at Aqu ML fav W% 33.63 W ROI .84 for a 16% loss.
CRC which I realize is not a major track 9/19-11/28-ML W% 29.36 W ROI .73-27% loss.
HAW 9/23-11/26 ML W% 28%,ROI .80 -20% loss.
The mystical thing about post time favs is they win about 30% at most tracks-cheaper tracks a little higher-harness higher still but always for a long term negative ROI.
DAN

[danddiver]

I've purchased your 2 money management publications.
I also have heard nothing but good about you and enjoyed a phone conversation with you a couple of years ago.
Like most of us I would like to turn a profit with my hadicapping and figure if I can start with something close to even and with a little practice,patience and common sense this can be accomplished.
I've tried POLs last 2 versions and a few others but it's aways close but no cigar.
I spend a few months using these programs as prescibed,buiding data bases,
Spend 3-4 hours per day.
I don't lose bags of money but slowly my bank roll always gets smaller.
I certainly spend much more money on software and the monthy TSN $60 than I have ever lost at the track.
It's like black jack if you count cards,play basic strategy and play against a single deck you have an advatage over the house.
I just can't understand why I can't do this with horses.
I know you do it and Steve Wolsen can do it but why can't I do it using the same software and strategies?
Thanks,
Dan

[Wizard of Odds]

A couple examles of ML since 11/02 at Aqu ML fav W% 33.63 W ROI .84 for a 16% loss.
CRC which I realize is not a major track 9/19-11/28-ML W% 29.36 W ROI .73-27% loss.
HAW 9/23-11/26 ML W% 28%,ROI .80 -20% loss.
The mystical thing about post time favs is they win about 30% at most tracks-cheaper tracks a little higher-harness higher still but always for a long term negative ROI.
DAN

Hi Dan:

I do consider Aqu a major track, but not the others you mention. I gave you that M/L idea as an easy rule of thumb- actually the win rate is a little higher than the 30% you requested and the winning odds are a little lower. Nevertheless, what you requested was a .90 (=.3 x 3.00) ROI. Here is a mindless way to improve upon the ROI and win percent from the straight M/L favorite- eliminate all M/L favorites going off at actual odds of 3.0 or greater. You will now have very close to (or even greater than) a .90 ROI with an even higher win % (about 40%!). Of course, this still will not bring you a positve ROI nor will betting the actual favorite each race (as you point out).

The takeout is the crusher! <however, rebates now put you in striking distance of a long-term profit with a win % near 40%>

These ideas will also work at major Cal tracks.

Hope this helps,

Wizard

[midnight]

Dan: HTR's K factor will win about 30% of all races and hit an ROI of 0.90. JCapper 's J rating will win about 28% with an ROI of about 0.93.

[danddiver]

That does help!
Dan

[danddiver]

Does Jcapper accept TSN Procap files?
Dan

[Dave Schwartz]

Dan,

I know you do it and Steve Wolsen can do it but why can't I do it using the same software and strategies?

Why don't you start with an easier question, like "Why is there air?" <G>

Seriously, I could easily do an hour on an answer to that single question.

How about a simple version of that answer instead?

A few months ago, someone asked me what single thing would help most horse players more than anything else. My answer? Belief that they can beat the races.

It is a Catch-22, so to speak. In order to win, one must have confidence. One builds confidence by winning.

When you can find someone who wins, (and I mean someone that you are really convinced they win) watch them. Watch what they do and how they do it. What you will probably find is that, ironically, it is not their selection process that makes them win. Rather it is what they do with the horses they have selected.

(See? Now we are moving towards that more complicated answer.)

I have a workshop to prepare for. Must go.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Wizard of Odds]

Dan: HTR's K factor will win about 30% of all races and hit an ROI of 0.90. JCapper 's J rating will win about 28% with an ROI of about 0.93.

I know there are significant improvements that may be made with even just one rating. I'm trying to provide results based upon easy publicly available info.

Of course, the sharp handicappers here are always working to do much better.

Wizard

[midnight]

Jcapper does accept Procaps files.

[Topcat]

Starting with the obvious may not be the way to go but since you asked I'll take a stab. This isn't quite what you want but in HSH you can put together systems or spot plays to test against a database or use as a contenders list. Here's results from a simple little system that I threw together in HSH. It took me all of five minutes to put together and the "test" ran through a 1,000 races in under 10 seconds. 35% winners and a 6 cent loss on the dollar.

Test Race #1000 of 1000

Races Considered: 1,000
Bet: 1,000
Won: 356
Pct: 35.6
Pct Bet: 100.0

Total Bet: 2,000
Total Returned: 1,878.60
Profit: -121.40
$Net: $1.88

Avg Bet: $2.00
Avg Return: $5.28

[JimG]

Please forgive me for asking this question.

I figure if using a software that gives me this kind of "black box" results coupled with additional handicapping and trainer intent would lead to consistent profits.
Dan :confused: :)

I'm not trying to be a wiseguy when I say you are not the first person to think this and spend months with various software trying to do the same thing. The problem is the "additional handicapping" and "trainer intent" will likely not give you value-type horses. Heck it is hard enough to turn a profit if you find something in your database that wins at 20% and has an ROI of $1.20 much less starting from a base where your ROI is negative. Why?? Because if you find it, others do too and the odds start gradually eroding. There are alot of smart handicappers out there with their software and/or databases. That is one reason why past database results may not translate into future profit. Another is you can find unrelated factors that turn a profit, but are not really logical when used together.

I appreciate what you are trying to do and do not mean to state that it is hopeless. But I assure you it is alot of hard work and can cost a lot of money in tuition. No matter what anybody says, paper bets are not the same as live playing. The key is to find something unique...something hardly anyone else is using at your track(s) of choice. If you decide to buy some program, find a unique way to use it that hardly anybody else will likelyfind due to the work involved and/or your creativity. And if you do find a winning method, keep looking for others as the racing game and its players are ever evolving/changing. What turned profits 10-20 years ago likely does not turn a profit today.

Jim

[kenwoodallpromos]

For my handicapping, there is great truth in that.
I am always exploring all facets to look for a unique edge- then keep looking for others.
Some use common knowledge in a unique way- others use common knowledge and target and perfect certain points (angles).
I personally think starting from a deficit and trying to break even with widespread knowledge would be very difficult.
I use refined place/show angles; total track daily workouts; multiple longshots in "chaos" type races; and refined knowledge of training routines and physical condition because very few people use those.
I like to prove or discard angles and racing myths that are unproven.
I suggest if you use a program as you are thinking about, you should refine the data specifically for types of races, field size, and betting odds of the favorites. For example, I find favorites do best at sprints, higher purse claiming and non-claiming races, at 4/5 odds and on "fast" tracks at the track I like best. CD favs are not always early speed.

[mainardi]

Dan,

Keep in mind that 30% at 2/1 is a negative 10% ROI (.3 * $6.00 = $1.80). Favorites don't average 2/1, so playing them blindly will also be a -ROI, even at 33%. :(

What you need to look at is what you want to accomplish. My primary goal is to never have to reload my accounts, thus I expect a +ROI. I am a spot player (I'm not a Fred Flintstone bb-bet-bet-bettor), so I live with a lower win % and a higher average payout. I haven't had to re-fund my wagering accounts in five years, as I'm +5% ROI since 1/1/05. I can provide this thread with a table that shows what your win % would need to be at various price points if I am asked to do so.

A pause for PA... I noticed that you let Schwartz promote his system, so please cut me this one sentence of slack. Check out the latest review from PRN (at www.ponypicker.com, under Reviews), where Hor$ense Pro earned an 8 1/2 (out of 10) by turning a +2% ROI "out-of-the-box". Not that I expect you to buy it... just offering you options. :cool:

"Back to our scheduled programming"... nobody said handicapping was easy, or else we wouldn't have flooded you with so many ideas. You know that the answer is the "whatever works for you" cop-out, and hopefully you're gathering enough information to know what that means to you. ;)

[midnight]

Because if you find it, others do too and the odds start gradually eroding. There are alot of smart handicappers out there with their software and/or databases. That is one reason why past database results may not translate into future profit.

This is the exact reason I stopped data mining with popular programs and went back to my own program. If I found that a rating an ROI of 1.20 betting all horses at odds of 6-1, everybody else would find it, too, and the prices would go down to nothing. Find something else next year and everybody else would find it. It was a matter of everybody discovering something that had been neglected in the past. The problem is that it doesn't get neglected in the future.

[PaceAdvantage]

A pause for PA... I noticed that you let Schwartz promote his system, so please cut me this one sentence of slack.

Are you kidding me? What makes you think that you can promote your system just because you see someone else promoting something? The rule is AUTHORIZED ADVERTISING. Obviously, Dave is authorized. Why he is authorized or how he is authorized is really nobody's business but mine and Dave's. I'll give you a hint though. Among other things, Dave has actually sent me a piece of paper with the words "Pay to the order of" written on it...Have you?

NOW back to our regularly scheduled programming.

[mainardi]

Hey PA,

I can send you money and you'll let me advertise? :cool: Too bad I didn't know that before. Contact me in private with your rules and costs, and let's see what happens.