Trainer Intent

[Rick Ransom]

I've read a lot about "trainer intent" and I think some of it is valid, some just guessing. If two different trainers do the same thing, they may have different reasons. But, if the idea works enough of the time to give you an edge it's still worthwhile.

One idea that I used to improve some of the methods I used a while back involved what I referred to as proper placement. That might not be a very good term, but let me explain it.

Most of my methods at the time involved horses in good form, usually as evidenced by early speed, and coming back within about 3 weeks. My assumption was that normally, when the horse is in good form and hasn't been laid off, the following would be the typical placement of the horse in the next race according to the finish position in the last race:

1st: Up one level
2nd or 3rd: Same level
4th or 5th: Down one level
6th or worse: Down two or more levels.

OK, now let's say the trainer thinks that the horse is a little better than this and, if it's a claiming race, wants to make sure the horse doesn't get claimed while still giving it a chance to win the purse. Then he would probably enter the horse about one level higher. So now we have:

1st: Up two levels
2nd or 3rd: Up one level
4th or 5th: Same level
6th or worse: Down one level

You'd be surprised at how much this improved some of those methods. Entering the horse at two or more levels above the usual seemed to be the kiss of death. So, I guess you could say that being cautiously optimistic was the best strategy.

I haven't tested this in a long time and it may only work in the situations mentioned above (horses in good form coming back quickly). If any of you database guys want to test this, I'd be interested in the results. Of course, it requires defining class levels for different kinds of races. At the time, I was only playing one circuit and knew the relationships pretty well. Of course, claiming races would be the easiest to test (but be careful of restricted claiming races).

Just thought mention this in case anyone is interested.

[smf]

Rick,

Unless we're on the backside & in the barns, we're only guessing (and hoping, lol) the odds are in our favor based from our own data or knowledge, and wager accordingly. I agree w/ your first paragraph.

Interesting 'guidelines' you have layed out. I have to say from my experience, that the trainer intent where I am is different from, say, Woodbine.

When a trainer here (TX, LA) claims a horse, it's ~ a 70/30 proposition that the trainer thinks he has a winning chance first out with the claim, depending on the trainer/ owner. I'm finding out as I collect WO claiming data that it's a different world up there. Winning "now" is far less a priority b/c of the different circumstances (higher claiming prices, higher purses, shortage of horses, jail time, etc..). A lot of the WO claims are being spotted for a "claiming sale" as much as they are for wins. That's much different from what I'm used to seeing here.

It also makes for a tough read for a trainer handicapper. When I look at my own circuit, I'm reading the races in "English", whereas I look at the WO races (claims) and I have to switch over to "Chinese" or somesuch.

It's really an entirely different business landscape and it's easy to get confused at times. Not a good situation for a handicapper.

[Rick Ransom]

smf,

I have to agree. It's best to specialize at whatever method you use, otherwise it just gets to be a confusing mess. That's the problem with analyzing huge nationwide databases. You miss a lot of interesting exceptions to the rule. Of course, you don't have to lump everything together just because it's there.

I was playing Northern California tracks when I used the "proper placement" rules, but it might not work elsewhere, especially on the east coast. I know the training patterns as far as workouts and recency are entirely different on the east coast vs the west coast.

Claims can be a very profitable area to study (as you already know). I think looking at purse size vs claiming price explains a lot of the differences. Since we're talking about a business here, it would make sense for them to do whatever maximizes income. Delaware Park should be really wacky with the purses being way out of line from slot revenues. Elimination of the jail rule messed up one of my favorite spot plays at several locations.

A lot has been written about monkey business (buzzers, etc.) in Louisiana. Have you found that to be an important factor or just a minor annoyance to be tolerated?

[smf]

Rick,

It's not a factor at all.

Louisiana Downs and the Fairgrounds are as formful as you'll ever find. When EVD gets their slot $$ next season, you'll be able to add them in also. The purse structure w/b healthy and some Lone Star trainers that run at FG, LAD will likely move to Lafayette in a couple of years.

I haven't heard of a buzzer being used in La lately but it did happen at Oaklawn 3 yrs ago. Doubt that Dallas Keen (trainer) had anything to do w/ that. That's a long story that I'll spare you.

The 'fog jock' deal happened at DeD. The purses there are too small for me to trust my $$ there.

Funny, but when the 1997 "sponge" stuffing garbage went on at churchill, people never quit betting cd. The fact that the cd track mgmnt was downplaying the incidents turned me off to the point where I didn't play churchill races anymore. I haven't heard of any "sponging" in Louisiana.

People made a big deal out of milkshakes, but they went on everywhere at the time. La outlawed milkshakes but I hear it's legal other places.

[Rick Ransom]

smf,

Glad to hear that. I always did pretty well at tracks down there. Louisiana Downs is one of the best tracks I've ever played. Besides, like I think I said once before, I usually zero in on any funny business and profit from it anyway. I haven't tried the Texas tracks yet, but based on what you say, they might be great.

Have you tried my local track, Turf Paradise? I know it doesn't have big parimutuel pools and has a high takeout, but I've found it to be easy to beat over the years. Probably because of the large number of tourists here that bet without knowing anything about horse racing. Phoenix Greyhound Park (dogs) is also a really easy mark, if you're into that, for the same reasons.

I've got to say that the "fog jock" story is one of the greatest of all time (you have to give him points for creativity, he just didn't execute it quite right). They had some pretty weird stuff going on in Northern California for a while, but nothing to match that.

I'd rather play LA & TX tracks any day than Churchill. I hate that place. I don't think I've ever won a Kentucky Derby in 20+ years, and that just doesn't match up with all of my other results elsewhere.

Best of luck guy!

[Dick Schmidt]

Interesting stuff. A couple of questions:

1) What is "sponge garbage" and what does a sponge have to do with horse racing?

2) What is a "milkshake?"

I know it is natural to talk in shorthand and assume that everyone knows what you are talking about, but I find it much easier to define my terms at least once in each post. Cuts way down on the questions and makes it much easier for a newby to follow along.


Thanks.

Dick

[smf]

Rick,

Being a trainer handicapper, I had to choose a circuit that was available on TRN (to watch, tape), and was bet-able thu the old youbet. Texas doesn't allow TX residents to wager by phone on TX races...Guess that they don't want my business that much. I'll go to see live racing at LS, but don't see the point in going to LS for simulcasting. What's the benefit?

The Louisiana tracks (lad, fg) fit the bill and some of the LA trainers run here at the local track. Made for a good fit. Since Ladbrokes has touch tone wagering, I haven't used youbet in months. Therefore the "circuit" for me was ls, lad, fg.

Churchill seems to be doing just fine without me, lol. Doubt they miss my wagering dollar.

The 2nd (possible ) circuit for me is Woodbine. Lot of claims and if I can find 3 trainers w/ claiming patterns that repeat, it'll be worth the effort.

Turf Paradise never made their signal available to TRN, and their signal wasn't available at LS until recently, so they kind of slid under my radar. Sounds like they're growing their business well there in Phoenix, tho.

Speaking of Phx, I watch the dawgs at Tucson and Phoenix on TRN when I'm waitng for replays of FG, LAD, or WO. I rotflmao at 'Jimmy the Weasel' (sheesh, whatta name!) give out his Tucson pix. Cheesy, cheesy stuff.

I get a kick outta those dog tracks. They're kinda like Southern Baptist preachers....,they're a hoot, but they ain't gettin in my wallet.

Don't mean to knock my homestate tracks, but you may want to stick w/ Louisiana tracks, not TX. More formful, and they WANT your business. La tracks are on TRN, youbet, et al, and will take action from all over. Can't say the same for Texas tracks. Very political, and it's been a mess from the start.

Dick,

The sponging happened in may 1997. Some (live) runners at CD had sponges stuffed up their nostrils, which obviously stopped them cold on the track. One horse died from complications a month after they extracted the sponges from him. The best that cd could come up with was to "scope" the horses in a x-fer barn before their races. If the runner had a sponge, it was on the trainer's head. I don't recall any penalties given.

This went on for a good while before cd did anything. The story was in one of the first DRF's I bought after LS opened. A month later, a QH trainer or 2 were caught doing the same stuff in New Mexico to cash in on a twin tri carryover.

Milkshakes....Louisiana came under fire 2-3 yrs ago when some QH's tested positive (cocaine??? don't exactly recall the substance) and they came to the conclusion that whatever the substance was, it was administered via the shake.

I'd bet Observer or So Cal fan can describe this better, but from what I hear and read it's where you ingest (via the nostrils if I'm not mistaken) fluids & minerals that are lost from exertion back into the runner. Apparently it was believed that this was an easy way to get "juice" into a horse w/o anyone "seeing" anything wrong.

It was overblown and was commonplace almost everywhere, the article read. A lady I used to date that grew up around horses said it wasn't harmful. Personally, I wouldn't know---never seen it done.

Hope that helps, but if someone can be more descriptive on the milkshakes, please do!

[Dick Schmidt]

SMF,

Thanks for the info. That is about as ugly a picture as I've painted in my head for some time. I know I'll dream of sponges up my nose tonight. Is it too late to hang the trainers?

Dick

[Rick Ransom]

smf,

I'd forgotten about your political problems in Texas. We've had our share in Arizona too. I used to have an Autotote (CT OTB) phone account, but they pulled the plug after the AZ racing people sent them a threatening letter. Of course, there are other options still.

Turf Paradise only recently started comingling simulcast track pools (one of the last in the country, I think). The current owner was found to have some connections with a guy who was allegedly a Mafia puppet at the Stardust in Las Vegas in the real-life equivalent of the movie Casino. That caused him to lose his license for the OTBs at the Indian casinos, one of which would have been the only live betting outlet that is conveniently close to me. Seems to be no end to the roadblocks they put up to avoid having my money go into the local track pool rather than elsewhere.

[smf]

Dick,

They didn't find anyone at fault, that is to say "catch" anyone. It could have been anyone..., a vet, a groom, etc... The trainers interviewed in the DRF were upset about it b/c (beside the obvious problem of someone possibly screwing around w/ their horses) they had to pay for the 'scoping' themselves.

That stuff may go on everywhere for all I know. I just didn't like the way Meeker/ cdsn handled it. Too much $$ is involved to sweep it under the rug after the spotlight went off.

Rick,

Amazing how some of these track mgmnts make it difficult for them to accept our money. Good thing they don't run banks.

[so.cal.fan]

There are rumors that these are used in So. Calif. by certain barns.
I don't know that much about them except that the main ingredient is bicarbonate of soda. It is suppose to open air passages.
I would assume it is administered via tube.
The horse has a "gas" feeling, and sometimes passes gas or will make a sharp kick while being saddled, then they allegedly run faster and better during the race.
It is tricky to detect, because many horse who pass gas, actually are not right, most have several bowel movements, some loose, due to nerves. And horses who kick while being saddled are more often distracted and angry about something.
So.........I don't try to look for it, as I could easily misread something.
I don't know if they are still legal in California or not?
Does anyone know?

[karlskorner]

Milkshake is the combination of sodium bacarbonate, water, electrolytes and confectionay sugar, administred via a stomach tube. It is suppose to retard the development of lactic acid with intent to reduce fatigue.

Used often in harness racing.

Karl

[karlskorner]

Testing for "milkshakes" creates some problems as it disappears rapidly from a blood sample. A sample must be drawn within 90 minutes of the race conclusion and post race testing must be done within 96 hours, after that a proper reading of dissolved carbon dioxide levels at the time of the race cannot be made. It's almost impossible to make split-sample testing within 96 hours, hence trainers cannot be found guilty, if they ask for a split-sample testing.

As with Lasix, a great place to hide other drugs, better in fact, as all traces disapper from the blood sample within 4 days.

Wonder why trainers ask for split-sample testing ?

Karl

[hurrikane]

wonder if the improvement is imagined or real. Trainers have some peculiar beliefs..as we all do I suppose.

If real..is there a pattern you might see to spot trainers.

Would this explain form reversals or is it more used to get one more race out of horse before he lays off?
How common do you believe it to be?

[karlskorner]

Hurrikane

Lactic Acid describes the intense pain during an exhuastive exercise. When muscles contract vigorously for long periods the circulatory system begins to lose ground in the delivery of oxygen. As lactic acid is produced in the muscles it leaks out into the blood and is carried around the body. If this condition continues the functioning of the horses body will become impaired and the muscles will fatigue very quickly.

Is there a way to spot it ? If there were, trainers would not be using it.

Is it in common use ? Geee..... I don't think so.

Karl

[Rick Ransom]

Everyone,

I've been away for a couple of days enjoying the outdoor environment here. But, you guys are making me laugh now that I'm back!. I'm sorry, but this milkshake and buzzer and sponge stuff doesn't compare at all to what what happening in NY in the 70s-80s. I'm glad it's more honest now, but don't try to make too much out of this stuff. The real overlays on "funny business" are probably long gone.

Please correct me if I'm wrong!

[so.cal.fan]

I agree with you Rick.
The testing has improved.
It is far more productive to improve your own handicapping than to worry about any crookedness going on.
The people I know at the track who win, very rarely give any thought to crooked trainers or jockeys.
However, in the 70's and 80's we couldn't say that.