Fundamental Theorem of Horse Race Betting..

[Wizard of Odds]

"If it makes logical sense to bet on a particular horse, betting on this horse is a bad bet (underlay) and this situation may create good bet(s) (overlay(s)) on other horses(s)."

This sounds silly and trite, but trust me, it is profound and the key to long-term winning.

Wizard

[thoroughbred]

"If it makes logical sense to bet on a particular horse, betting on this horse is a bad bet (underlay) and this situation may create good bet(s) (overlay(s)) on other horses(s)."

This sounds silly and trite, but trust me, it is profound and the key to long-term winning.

Wizard

Wizard,
Adding a bit to your fine advice: If a good "overlay" doesn't arise under these conditions, consider skipping the race.

[Overlay]

Of course, getting value on your bets is key, which also requires having the insight and discipline to pass situations where value is not present. But I'm not sure I agree that all horses that it makes logical sense to play are by definition underlays. It varies on a case-by-case basis, depending on the individual winning chances of the public favorite, as well as the other horses in the race. Sometimes the favorite itself will be an overlay, based on its toteboard odds. And sometimes solid contenders that survive thorough analysis will be ignored because the public is oversold on a hot isolated performance angle or connection factor (jockey or trainer). It comes down to how competitive the race is, and what the public is giving weight to in its wagering.

[kenwoodallpromos]

"Logical" prior to tote watching.

[captvancouver]

"If it makes logical sense to bet on a particular horse, betting on this horse is a bad bet (underlay) and this situation may create good bet(s) (overlay(s)) on other horses(s)."

But what if the parameters that I would use to select a horse are different than yours, and what the crowd uses? And if what if those parameters exist for me on which to base a logical choice, for me ,and you are unaware of these parameters .Not that these do as yet. Perception is in the eye of the beholder.(I am getting my new medication next tuesday, and they are going to let me out onthursdays too....LOL.)


Nothing unreal exists
Ntohing real can be threatened

[Wizard of Odds]

You and other posters are correct on this issue.

In this context, "logical" means those parameters perceived by the general lay public. In the extreme case, a 'publicity horse' is one of the worst (underlaid) bets of all.

Thank you for the opportunity to make to make this clarification.

All the Best,
Wizard

[captvancouver]

It s a great point.

All the best

Keith