Results of top beyer fig in a race

[sq764]

I was curious if anyone had any stats on the percentage of winners and ROI of horses that simply have the top last out beyer figure in a race.

I am not a bog beyer fig person, but if I see a race where the horse with the top beyer fig (5 points or more) is at a nice price, I make a small play. Amazingly, I have seen horses pay $20 in this scenario..

With all the beyer lovers out there, its stunning that this could happen time and time again..

[Tom]

In his book, Beyer on Speed, Andy had DRF do a study and found that a 3 point edge was significant. I think the hit rate for the top fig horse was someting like 29-30% - don't have the book in front of me, but its close.
Another scenerio he talksed about about was double advantage horses - horse's last two numbers were better than everyone elses numbers in their whole record. Nice thing about this is you can bet against these at cheaper tracks like FL and Pen and get nice prices.

[so.cal.fan]

Tom,
I know you check the Beyer figures. Have you ever checked out the best Beyer number at the track the horse is running at?
I checked it out one Santa Anita meet and found that the top 3 or 4 Beyers at the track in question, have a pretty good win %.
Just wondered if it works at other tracks?
The only hitch I found, was you can't go back too far.
Say an 8 year old who got a 90 Beyer 4 years ago.
Of course, you do not use it on maiden races.

[Tom]

At better tracks, with classier horses, I look at Best Beyer at the track, surface, distance, etc. I use it to judes where the recent races fall into the history. Say a horse runs 67, 69, 74, 70, 87...
what does that 87 mean? If the horse has run 98 previously, I don't get too upset about the big jump. Something I like to do, especially now that we have lifetime PP's available, is draw a line through every race that is not the same as today's basically. Say today is a one turn dirt mile at Belmont. I cross out a two turn routes, grass, off tracks, etc. This leaves me with race very similat to todays, and usually all Belmont races (except Aqu miles).
Filters out a lot of noise. Now, I don't have any clue how the horse will run today, but Iknow if he does fire what he is capable of. Churchill turf is another one where I like to isolate the figs for that course. Saratoga mud is another one. Aqu inner is another.
At FL, most horse are already way below there better figs and I don't bother too much with it.

[GR1@HTR]

My guess of the best top beyer fig is that it hits around 26% to 27% with -18ish ROI....typical of any good sped fig.

[hurrikane]

thare was a study done by, maybe Cramer. Actually, it was posted here so try a search here or on his site. Had the breakdown of wins by high beyer and then within so many points.

It seems to hold up from the studies i have done. Although I don't use Beyers because...everyone does..it seems to hold true across speed figs I use. Anyway..bottom line was anyone within 10 pts is a contender.

You can in fact shave that fig down at some tracks with a little study.

[cj]

Originally posted by hurrikane
...Anyway..bottom line was anyone within 10 pts is a contender.


I hope this does not mean anyone not within 10 points isn't a contender. Especially with younger, improving horses, that would be dangerous grounds for elimination.

CJ