IS A TOTE INCREASE IN A LONGSHOT A BAD SIGN?

[captvancouver]

The odds for my horse on the tote board are 8:1 with a great overlay. The are gradually going up several minutes before post.He has a 5 F workout 7 days before the race .He is coming off a short layoff (36 days). It is a sprint race. Are these events a bad sign. Should I bet him to win,everything else looking fine. The overlay is juicy, the horse otherwise looks fine to me , but is the crowd sending me a message I should listen too?Any opinions.(I am told that the crowd picks 33% of all winners.
Any insights for this newbie are appreciated.

Thanks

Capt Vancouver

[Speed Figure]

They pick 33% of all winners, but they lose 67% of the time. If it looks good to you that's all that matters.

[midnight]

As a rule, don't let lack of action discourage you. On occasion, a lack of play on a horse might be a sign that it isn't going to do anything. But that's not always the case. What you need to keep in mind is that at longer odds, you only need to win a few of them to be profitable. Don't let the public do your handicapping: they may pick 33% winners, but they're a consistent net-loser up and down the line.

[xfile]

The odds for my horse on the tote board are 8:1 with a great overlay. The are gradually going up several minutes before post.He has a 5 F workout 7 days before the race .He is coming off a short layoff (36 days). It is a sprint race. Are these events a bad sign. Should I bet him to win,everything else looking fine. The overlay is juicy, the horse otherwise looks fine to me , but is the crowd sending me a message I should listen too?Any opinions.(I am told that the crowd picks 33% of all winners.
Any insights for this newbie are appreciated.

Thanks

Capt Vancouver


The crowd doesn't know S****!...unless they come out of this BBS...lol:cool:

[GameTheory]

Also don't get discouraged when your longshots often come in last place or just run terrible. Typically when betting on longshots they will either win or run up the track. As long as you get those winners, don't worry about what the other ones do...

[captvancouver]

I ve been doing okay on overlays/longshots etc, but I needed to find out if this drop on the tote was a factor.

Thanks for the input.

I think it resolves my problem, but any other input is welcome too.

Best regards to all.



Keith

[JustRalph]

when they go down in the last few clicks.......... I get worried. I think that I am using something obvious to make a decision.......... when they go from 40-1 to 70-1 in the last few clicks..........I get excited...:D...then I get worried, then I get excited.........you get it...........:D I really have a hard time distinguishing between smart money and dumb money. Stick with what you feel is right.

[xfile]

when they go down in the last few clicks.......... I get worried. I think that I am using something obvious to make a decision.......... when they go from 40-1 to 70-1 in the last few clicks..........I get excited...:D...then I get worried, then I get excited.........you get it...........:D I really have a hard time distinguishing between smart money and dumb money. Stick with what you feel is right.


Late money seems like a curse for me...lol.....just today I bet a horse at 8-1 odds with 5 minutes before post. As their loading in the gate I glance at the board and he's bet down to 3-1:confused: ...and this is in a big pool in NY!(it's very hard to sway the odds that much that late in a NYRA pool!!!!!). And it was not my bet...lol...Needless to say that horse is still running. Search party sent....lol :D ....but the Odds Gods were very nice to me at CD with a $167 exacta several times. First time starter named Dyna Slam (Grand Slam) won to pay $40 some dollars. Logical favorite was 2nd and exacta was overlaid in my eyes. :cool:

[cato]

I like this analysis on whether action or no action is meaningful...

If based on traditional analysis you think the crowd should be betting ahorse at say 3-1 [again--not your line, but what the crowd should do, based on good recent Beyers, recent form, recency, class, etc] and the horse is not being bet and is going off at 12-1 (for example) that's a bad sign. A sign that connections and people "in the know" are backing off of the horse.

On the other hand if you have found a horse that looks bad on paper (bad recent form, bad recent Beyers, etc) but you have found an angle that may be hidden from others (i.e., some non-traditional handicapping) then you do not expect the horse to be bet and no action is neutral--its what you expected.

Cato

[xfile]

I like this analysis on whether action or no action is meaningful...

If based on traditional analysis you think the crowd should be betting ahorse at say 3-1 [again--not your line, but what the crowd should do, based on good recent Beyers, recent form, recency, class, etc] and the horse is not being bet and is going off at 12-1 (for example) that's a bad sign. A sign that connections and people "in the know" are backing off of the horse.

On the other hand if you have found a horse that looks bad on paper (bad recent form, bad recent Beyers, etc) but you have found an angle that may be hidden from others (i.e., some non-traditional handicapping) then you do not expect the horse to be bet and no action is neutral--its what you expected.

Cato

I find 3-1 shots going off at big odds almost every day. And they win. The winner in the feature at AQU today is a great example. MIRACULOUS MISS was 3-1 on my line and went off at 9-1. She won going away.

[captvancouver]

I like your logic. I try not to do things unless they make sense,since that approach usuallycovers exceptions to the rule,and this makes sense.Thats what I like about horseracing too...for most aspects of it there is a logical answer..and maybe the rest falls into the fact that horses are moody,too, and are not machines, but have their bad days like any other athletes.

[captvancouver]

I like your logic. Thanks..


Keith

[kenwoodallpromos]

I do not consider 36 days a layoff.
A lot of the pool for low odds horses is recency so some overlays have back class.

[Fastracehorse]

I notice this alot with horses that should be around 15-1.

If there is st ugly about the horse - like a jockey or poor running line - the public will let some value go.

fffastt

[dav4463]

My favorite bet is when I have a horse that is "almost" as good as the horse the public is pounding. The odds will go up on the "almost" as good and when the pounded favorite doesn't fire you get paid well. I really like it when the favorite has a questionable class move such as dropping big off a layoff, dropping off of a good race, or back at same level after being recently claimed.

[Overlay]

If based on traditional analysis you think the crowd should be betting ahorse at say 3-1 [again--not your line, but what the crowd should do, based on good recent Beyers, recent form, recency, class, etc] and the horse is not being bet and is going off at 12-1 (for example) that's a bad sign. A sign that connections and people "in the know" are backing off of the horse.

I understand and generally agree with what you're saying. (That is, I often give horses that are large overlays according to my personal line a second look just to be sure there isn't any negative aspect of their records that I missed.) But I think that the farther you stray from "traditional analysis" in setting your own line (that is, the more you rely on peripheral aspects of performance), the more your net result will suffer. I've regularly seen instances where the public will get oversold on a horse because of one overriding handicapping consideration, and completely disregard solid contenders that end up going off at odds far higher than they should. I've found that, as long as my analysis is based on proven fundamentals that have held up over time, I can bet the higher-odds horse with confidence in the long-term results.

[classhandicapper]

If you disagree sharply with the tote board, you should at least attempt to understand why. If you can't understand why, then it's at least possible that it's "you" that doesn't understand something about the race or the horse. It's also possible the information you are using is either incomplete or inaccurate.

Maybe you don't know about some trainer pattern that accounts for the action on the board.

Maybe one of the horses had a big trip last time out and you didn't see it.

Maybe there's a strong bias that day and you didn't even notice it, but many players did.

Maybe the set of speed figures you are using has a couple of races a lot different than public perceptions of ability and "your" figures are wrong.

Maybe you didn't notice that there's not much speed in the race and your horse is a deep closer.

Don't back off just because you don't understand the board, but I think it's well worth the effort to try to understand why.

IMO, the best betting opportunities come when you know exactly who the public is going to make the favorite and why, but you disagree strongly.

[Suff]

The odds for my horse on the tote board are 8:1 with a great overlay.

Capt Vancouver

there are a few moving parts to your scenario. Like...where? a parimutual pool that can be manipulated by $500, such as Great Lakes Downs.

Also, field size has a lot to do with tote prices in the final minute.

An 11 or 12 horse field at NY , its common to see an animal going at 9-1 , that lands at 13-1 when the gate opens. It works the other way...Funnycide was 13-1 with 30 seconds to go and ended up being 11-1. how much money do you think it took in the final minute of the Kentucy Derby Pool to move a horse 2 points? I'm guessing a 1/2 a million bucks... maybe more.
6 horse field different story... If I see a 6 horse field and my horse is the 2nd longest shot on the board at 11-1, and its drifting up....I willl double check why I like the horse, and pay attention to why the public doesn't.

neever a bad thing to watch where and why the money is going.

[Richie]

anytime my horse goes up I love it, each and every time I want it to go up, never down. If your betting horses I find it odd that anyone would get a postive validation of your horse by the odds board and the dropping of odds on your horse. I get no comfort from that.

[Overlay]

anytime my horse goes up I love it, each and every time I want it to go up, never down. If your betting horses I find it odd that anyone would get a postive validation of your horse by the odds board and the dropping of odds on your horse. I get no comfort from that.

Of course, it would be ideal if every horse we liked got ignored in the betting. But the public has proven its overall accuracy in setting aggregate odds year after year. If someone insists on betting high-odds horses indiscriminately just to be contrarian or to set themselves apart from the public, they're fighting a losing battle, in my opinion. I find that my greatest success comes when my general handicapping largely matches the public in terms of the rank-ordering of the horses in a field, but one or more of the horses are offering betting value when I compare their individual odds with my estimate of their actual winning chances.

[Fastracehorse]

Maybe you don't know about some trainer pattern that accounts for the action on the board.

Maybe one of the horses had a big trip last time out and you didn't see it.

Maybe there's a strong bias that day and you didn't even notice it, but many players did.

Maybe the set of speed figures you are using has a couple of races a lot different than public perceptions of ability and "your" figures are wrong.

Maybe you didn't notice that there's not much speed in the race and your horse is a deep closer.

==========================================
==========================================

Maybe I have a live 50-1 shot :p

fffastt

[cato]

XFILE said: "I find 3-1 shots going off at big odds almost every day. And they win. The winner in the feature at AQU today is a great example. MIRACULOUS MISS was 3-1 on my line and went off at 9-1. She won going away. "

That's consistent with my point. These are horses you make 3-1--your line. YOu may have made them 3-1 for some reason that is not obvious to the public... or even if its obvious the public is ignoring it. If that's the case, then a horse going off at high odds does not bother me..its a good thing.

If on the other hand you make them 3-1 because it has recency, and good/top Beyers and a good trainer/jopckey combo and good works and the horse is well placed at the right class and diatance and surface and the horse is going off at long odds then I woudl be troubled and take another look.

Having said if a horse I make 3-1 goes off at 9-1 I am thrilled becasue I'm not going to be betting on traditional horses so the higher the odds the better (up to a point).

In your example, Miraculous Miss, she was shipper from Delaware who was riunning in a $100,000 stakes race at AQU. Its maiden race was at 4 1/2 furlongs and its only other reace was at 5 1/2 furlongs (again, at Delaware) and its ML odds were 10-1, so great work on making the horse 3-1 and picking the winner.

Had I ben smart enough to select that horse I would have bet it at almost any odds...it was the longest shot on the boards in the ML and often those horses are ignored while everyyone is piling on the "smart" money. So I would hnot ahve been surprise for the odds on MM to drift up and I would not be troubled at all.

I like what classhandicapper had to say--that you shodul at least try to understand why the board is doing what its doing. That knowledge and understanding may or may not cause you to back off a race.

ANd just to beat this to death, it ius rarec when I back off a horse becaue the odds are going up. Its normally the other porobelm...where a horse shoudl be 10-1 (for example) and is bet down to 8-5 and stays there. When I have no explanation for that I'll normally stay out of that race and watch the mystery horse

Take care, Cato

[hurrikane]

one thing to consider in this,

your horse is going up for one reason. people are betting a different horse.
Usually the favorite or second favorite.

can you find a flaw in the favorite? second favorite? they win 66%.

if you can clear that hurdle...give me the 50-1 shots all day.

[Overlay]

one thing to consider in this,

your horse is going up for one reason. people are betting a different horse.
Usually the favorite or second favorite.

can you find a flaw in the favorite? second favorite? they win 66%.

if you can clear that hurdle...give me the 50-1 shots all day.

To me, it's more a question of value rather than finding flaws. Perhaps the favorite in a particular race deserves that status, and is in fact the one horse that's most likely to win the race. Its only "flaw" (if you want to call it that) is that too many people are aware of its superiority, and are driving its odds down below fair value (the level that reflects the horse's actual chance of winning) with their bets. In that case, you can either pass the race altogether from a win-bet standpoint, or you can look for another horse that may not have as good an absolute chance of winning as the favorite, but that has been overlooked by the public, with odds that are higher than its actual chance of winning.

(Also, if I recall correctly, I believe your 66% statistic would be for the top three favorites in a race, rather than the top two (roughly 33% for the favorite, 20% for the second favorite, and 14% for the third favorite). That was the basis for William L. Scott's approach in Investing at the Racetrack, where he reasoned that if you could select the one horse out of the top three that would beat the other two in two races out of every three, you'd end up hitting an average of four races out of every nine, which he used as the starting point for his system.)

[classhandicapper]

Maybe I have a live 50-1 shot :p

fffastt

You often do have a live one when you understand exactly why the public is ignoring it and you have a good reason disagree.