Redboarding with Acceleration and Percent Median

[michiken]

I am currently working on my homegrown software and wanted to incorporate % median energy into my arsenal of handicapping tools and ran into some interesting observations.

Attached you will find a redboarded set of 2005 Kentucky Derby races where I looked at turn time acceleration, stretch acceleration and % median. The speed and pace figures have purposely been omitted to concentrate on these 3 factors. All pacelines used were last race and the chart is sorted based on Turn Time.

Earlier this month in another post, I asked about calculating %median and was given a formula for sprints. Not being familiar with extrapolating this calculation to routes, I followed the same principle and used this formula:

(Sum of Internal Pace Figs to the Half Time)/(Sum of Internal Pace Figs to the Half Time + Speed Figure)

With various route distances having up to 4 bris pace figs depending on the distance, this calculation seemed weird until I started looking at some results. (I highly expect to be told to only use the 2 pre finish calls for this calc).

Note the blue shaded boxes in my chart indicate a ranking that is above the average as calculated for the entire field.

Race 9
9 Horse - America Alive:
Tied for first in the turn time ranking.
Had a +7 final fraction which was better than Perfect Drift.
0.711 % Median Figure.
Winner paying $37.60

Race 10
10 Horse - Giacomo
Tied for 4th in Turn Time.
+4 final fraction which was better than those ranked higher in turn time.
0.719 %Median Figure.
Winner paying $102.60

Race 11
2 Horse - British Attitude
Tied for 2nd in Turn Time.
Lousy final fraction rating but better than the 1A.
0.708 % Median Range.
Winner paying $28.40


Race 12
7 Horse - Prayer Service tied for 2nd in Turn Time.
Final Fraction of +5 is better than the 8 and 9 horses.
0.715 % Median Range.
Places paying $9.00 and 9-7 exacta pays $123.

I would appreciate your comments to my questions below. Go head and rip!

a. For those of you who calculate the % Median, is this the proper formula for route races?

b. Is the 0.71%ish a good energy target for route races? or will I find it depends on the track? did I hit upon a late pace bias?

c. Are any of you following a % median variant to profile what types of horses are winning?

d. If any of you with massive databases could play with this idea and report back............. to tell me I am fitting a square peg into a round hole......

e. How effective do you think this would be by not using any type of speed figs at all?

[46zilzal]

the pattern of three declining total energy outputs with percent median increasing has worked often to show horses going off form as this post to Sartin Alums from a fellow playing Turf Pradise can attest to..

"8th race at TUP on the 28th, the fav, In Disquise last 3 lines.
1: tot=158.05 1:Med=69.3
2: tot=158.35 2:Med=68.7
3: tot=162.39 3:Med=67.0

Chalk as usual was winning all day but I tossed this one an bet the next 2 one of which was Ryans Partner who payed a fat $16.00 to win."

Found that it is MOST predictive when the animal in question is meeting the same fractions and cannot keep up and percent median gets earlier...If it is successively going against FASTER fractions the last three, well it was just out paced and the percent median relfects an inability to go with those faster fractions...Another example is when horses (youngsters) strech out, if they show a sublte inability to adapt to an energy distribution typical for that longer distance, it is a hint of their stamina inability...Galloping Grocer and the Florida Derby (High Fly) winner were good examples of this last year.

[46zilzal]

here is that again from ALums..
Remember the variations!!

Rising % median has to be evaluated in three categories

1) Horses streching out which simply do not have the stamina to go
that longer distance will get a shift of their % median earlier. One
sees this yearly in the Triple Crown (High Fly was a notable example).
This tells of limited stamina ability and it is not going off form

2) Horse runs against progressively faster early pace. THESE are the
ones I often miss. Trainer wants to get conditioning by running an e/p
type against a pace much faster than it can handle so the animal
cannot keep up and the % median rises. Ability, form, BOTH THERE.....
just over-matched.

3) Horse runs against a pace close to the SAME last three and
progressively has a rise in the % median. These are the ones that are
really going off form. It is wise to look at the e/l in their last ten
contests to see if they have ever run sucessfully at those e/l levels
in the last three. Only really works when THREE lines show elevation
of % median.

[andicap]

I use %E a lot in my play and have found that #3 above is a fancy way of saying that a horse who has faced a similar or slower pace in his last three compared to the pace expected today will probably fare badly if

1) his Average Pace velocity is getting progressively worse. (I bet you could even use speed figures. )
2) he is finishing worse with each race. i.e. his final fractions are dropping even when his pace figs are remaining constant or are slower.

The one small difference among pace cappers is in #2 above. Some look to the pace the horse ran and others look to the pace the horse ran AGAINST. Who's right? Probably both.

Energy is a neat way of calcuating what's happening with pace and deceleration but I found it's often made needlessly complicated. The Sartinites I felt were guilty of this. Reading some of their manuals and it was like you had to know logirithic math. (I can't even spell it.)

Energy is best used when comparing today's probable pace to the horse's abilities at that pace in terms of how he will distribute his energy today.
In English: If a horse has closed really well against a pace that is relatively similar to today's (you can never get too exact in this game) or slower and you expect a pace meltdown today, the horse is a good bet, especially in routes and at 7f. That is why you will horses with poor speed figures win races at long odds. It's not that the Beyers or CJs or Cramers are wrong. It's just you're using the wrong tool in that race.

If a horse has faltered against a pace that is probably faster than today's that is a legitimite excuse. Again a bad speed figure can magically improve by 30 or more points if the pace is one the horse can handle today.

Sometimes people make this game out to be more complicated than it really is. And the people give speed figures a bad name don't know how to use or interpret them.

[46zilzal]

my goodness, I thought it was getting easier to understand!

[twindouble]

my goodness, I thought it was getting easier to understand!:D

Wecome to my world. :confused:

[46zilzal]

we really differ on the calculation but as long as either one is consistent, it will work to show relative change

[46zilzal]

"the one small difference among pace cappers is in #2 above. Some look to the pace the horse ran and others look to the pace the horse ran AGAINST. Who's right? Probably both."


in Saritn software BOTH are considered in several readouts