Help Making Pace Figs.

[traveler]

I last made my own figs. 15 years ago and am now having brain-lock.
I know how to make FPS calcs. as an example for a 6 F race, but what about 5.5F? At the second call, the chart time is from the 1/2 mile but the positions in the race chart are from 3/8's into the race, not the 1/2 mile. Here is an example - hope it is readable
The 3 horse is 2nd 2 lenghts behind at 3/8 mile into the race but the time is taken at the 1/2 mile point. I am probably going to feel like a dope when it is explained but it wont be the first time. I know the leaders time, but I don't know where the 3 horse was in relation to the leader at the half? :bang:

# Horse A/S M/E Wgt PP St 1/4 3/8 Str Fin Jockey Odds
3 Cloudlet 2 F L b 121 2 4 3hd 21/2 12 14 Winnett, Jr. Buddy G. *0.80
5 Crystal Sonata 2 F b 119 4 1 11 1/2 12 23 2nk Flores Emilio 6.40
7 Just Be Happy 2 F 119 5 2 21 1/2 34 1/2 36 39 1/2 Clifton Thomas 2.10
4 Missy's Collection 2 F 121 3 5 5 5 5 43 Lee Katie 14.40
1 Jet by the Brook 2 F 121 1 3 410 48 42 5 Carlos Marino 6.50
Off Time: 7:26 Start: 5 went. Good for all. Ridden out. Track: Fast Weather: Clear 50o
Fractions: :231, :481, 1:012, 1:082 (:23.29, :48.20, 1:01.50, 1:08.47)

[cj]

All you can do is guess really, or watch a lot of replays. I would think most just use the 3/8 BL like it was at a half mile. Or, you could project the 3f time based on the 2f and 4f times. One other, maybe project 4f BL from the 3/8 BL and the Str Call BL. None are perfect, but it is all we have. Pretty sad actually.

[classhandicapper]

I wonder how Formulator does it when you view the horses's individual fractions or the incremental pace from a result chart? I never looked closely enough.

[traveler]

Thanks CJ. I was hoping you would weigh-in. At least I haven't lost it totally yet. It does leave room for a lot of guessing though. Thanks again.

[Tom]

I wonder how Formulator does it when you view the horses's individual fractions or the incremental pace from a result chart? I never looked closely enough.

As one might expect, they do it horribly!:rolleyes:

They use the time from the first call to the finish, so you get third fractions like :44.1.....very useful info. Being a bit off using the second call wouuld be far more helpful, IMHO.

[Big Bill]

I had a related concern when I first started using BRIS pace ratings, i.e., where the calls differ from the fractional times in 5 and 5 1/2 furlong races.

I sent the following to a friend at BRIS:

In 5 and 5.5 furlong races, the points of call are at the 1/4, 3/8, stretch and finish. Since your description of the pace ratings state that the E2 rating is at the 1/2 mile call in sprints, is the E2 pace rting really accurate, i.e., is the rating calculated on the time to the half or to the 3/8 call?

Here was his answer:

"This a complicated situation because although we get a 3/8 call we only get a 4f fractional time, so we incorporate an extrapolation process to dtermione the beaten lengths. So, it is based on the 4f time but we use a process to determine an 'accurate' E2 (3f) number. I hope this makes sense."

I had trouble understanding that explanation at the time, and I'm not too sure I understand it completely now! :D

Feel free, anyone, to elaborate on this.

Big Bill

[andicap]

"Extrapolate" = Guess




I had a related concern when I first started using BRIS pace ratings, i.e., where the calls differ from the fractional times in 5 and 5 1/2 furlong races.

I sent the following to a friend at BRIS:

In 5 and 5.5 furlong races, the points of call are at the 1/4, 3/8, stretch and finish. Since your description of the pace ratings state that the E2 rating is at the 1/2 mile call in sprints, is the E2 pace rting really accurate, i.e., is the rating calculated on the time to the half or to the 3/8 call?

Here was his answer:

"This a complicated situation because although we get a 3/8 call we only get a 4f fractional time, so we incorporate an extrapolation process to dtermione the beaten lengths. So, it is based on the 4f time but we use a process to determine an 'accurate' E2 (3f) number. I hope this makes sense."

I had trouble understanding that explanation at the time, and I'm not too sure I understand it completely now! :D

Feel free, anyone, to elaborate on this.

Big Bill

[exactajack]

Big Bill,

I recall having this same problem when putting together my program. I came across it while debugging. If you want to calculate the pace of the race where 2 or more horses are coming out of the same race you will get 2 or more different pace of race unless you have the equation Bris uses for extrapolating. You can't just use beaten lengths at the 2nd call and adjust the E2 for pace of race. I contacted their programmer and after a lengthy disscussion he gave it up. I incorporated it to my program and it solved the problem. I'd post it here but don't know if that would be alright. Contact them again.

[Big Bill]

exactajack,

I've just sent you a private message.

Big Bill

[Tom]

"Extrapolate" = Guess

Considering the accuracy of the beaten lengths and the formulas we use to convert them to times, assuming the 5.5 furlong second call is the same of 6 fulongs is probably not such a bad idea.
The only thing certain in horse racing is the takout.