Matchup line manipulation?

[Valuist]

Maybe its just a conspiracy theory, but I've seen quite of few of these similar moves. Horse A and B appear fairly well matched, and one opens as a slight favorite, then gets bet out to the -140 to -155 range during the morning. But by late morning, a flurry of money starts coming in on the other side, pushing the favorite back to the -120 area. Granted, there are low limits on these matchups ($200 the night before and $500 later on) so it doesn't take much to move a line; even a $50 wager the night before will move the line. All it would take would be a few guys to throw down some $100 wagers on one side, watch the line drift up, then hammer the other side w/the $500 max plays. This stuff happens in sports betting quite often, and the line moves are much smaller than in these Pinny matchups.

An example today would be Kohut against Major Jonathon at Aqueduct. Kohut opened around +128 yesterday and drifted up to +146 this morning. He's since been hammered down to +112.

[Jeff P]

One thing I like about head to head matchups is that the line does move. Sometimes a lot. That means it doesn't matter which side you like, favorite or underdog, betting head to head matchups profitably can often be a question of when you bet rather than who you bet. If you can assess probabilities with a air degree of accuracy, you should be able to get at least a general idea of a money line for both sides. Then, no matter which side you like, be highly selective and demand overlay. Play a waiting game. Often you can get 30 to 50 points more on the side you like than if you simply jump in when you first see the line. After doing that for a while, you'll eventually develop a sort of "sixth sense" for knowing which way the line is likely to move. At this point, then you'll know whether to jump in early or wait for a better price.

-jp

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[Valuist]

I agree. I do like to check them out the night before, because betting early can make a huge difference.

[Jeff P]

Valuist,

I want to clarify one thing. My post above wasn't directed at you. You suggested a conspiracy theory and I also have similar thoughts from time to time. My post was intended to be more of a primer to those who have never given head to head matchup wagering much thought or those who have never even been exposed to it. For my money I think it is a fascinating area of wagering - one that can reward the player who studies it a lower take out and better profit potential than can be found in the straight pools.

-jp

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[Valuist]

No offense taken. I do think its a mistake to never give them a look. They are very beatable.

[Jeff P]

I'll advance a conspiracy theory of my own here. I'm curious if anyone else has noticed this. It's one area of head to head matchup wagering where I suspect the bookmakers fleece the public without them being aware of it.

Horses with superior speed figures tend to get noticed by the betting public and prices on them tend to get driven down below fair value. This is just as true with head to head matchup wagernig as it is in the straight pools.

I've noticed the linesmakers are really good at including a horse in one side of a matchup that has the speed figures to create the impression of a total mismatch IF that horse were healthy. Often I see these types not only losing the matchup but finishing dead last in their races. I've been tracking it and I've noticed that these horses run dead last far more often when they are involved in a head to head matchup than when they are not part of a matchup.

I suspect that the linesmaker is relying on a little inside info when he creates such a matchup. If he can find the horse that isn't right, or is maybe entered by the trainer as a favor to the racing secretary to make a race fill, or any number of other things - and can match this horse up against a healthy or well intended horse with inferior speed figures - the linesmaker has done his job. He now has a matchup that looks one sided but really isn't. The betting on this kind of matchup can be pretty one sided. The players, not knowing what the linesmaker knows, pour their money in on the pretty on paper horse, making him the overwhelming favorite and scratch their heads afterwards when he finishes up the track. All the while everybody makes posts on messaqge boards everywhere applauding the bookmaker for offering low vig head to head matchups and having the sac to gamble with the players.

-jp

[toetoe]

Is the line swing ever large enough to allow betting both sides, the old middle move?

[Jeff P]

Is the line swing ever large enough to allow betting both sides, the old middle move?Yes. Especially if you can become good at anticipating which lines will move and in what direction. Still, I prefer being highly selective and backing one side at the right price rather than middling.

-jp

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