Speed the way to go on Churchill turf

[cj]

That is the title of an article by Steve Klein on DRF.

Here is a quote:

At the fall meet at Keeneland, just 11 percent of the first-call leaders in turf routes won. At Churchill, the win rate of the early leaders has been noticeably stronger, at 17 percent through Nov. 10. Just one horse who was second during the early going won on the grass at Keeneland, for a 3 percent win rate. Horses who were second early at Churchill have won 11 percent of their races going long on the turf. Horses who were among the first three to the first call in those races at Keeneland won 20 percent of the time, compared with 47 percent at Churchill.

Granted, speed is better at CD than Kee, but I would hardly call speed "the way to go" with the above stats. Am I missing something?

By the way, his choice in the race led through dawdling fractions before backing up to finish a well beaten 5th.

[JustRalph]

I haven't seen many races at CD this meet, but I think speed is doing ok on the turf. This field may not really be representative though. It was a mini stakes for 75k

example race: http://www.columbuscool.com/CD1112200507p.asx

This was 5 on the turf. Looks like speed held up here, although they switched leaders a couple of times

[cj]

I wasn't saying speed was bad, but 47% winners running 1-2-3 at the first call means 53% were not! The headline implied speed was dominating to me.

[GMB@BP]

cj,

I ripped this article over at another forum I post on, klein is the worst handicapper over there and if you listen to his methods at all you are on the fast track to the poor house.

notice he does not list any impact values for betting the speed horses, cause if he did anyone would see speed is not winning any more then it should based on the entrants. randy giles had a good write up on this as well on his site.

[garyoz]

That is the title of an article by Steve Klein on DRF.

Here is a quote:



Granted, speed is better at CD than Kee, but I would hardly call speed "the way to go" with the above stats. Am I missing something?

What you're missing is that Klein's latest book is about "The Power of Early Speed"--A little cross promotion between the news side and the publishing side? ;) Sounds like hype to me.

[JustRalph]

Good Point CJ. Reminds me of the trainer stats where on air types like to talk up trainers with 18-19% winners with First timers........etc..........they are losing 80% of the time............duh?


I think no matter the surface, good early speed will have an advantage in 5F races just about any place.

[JustRalph]

What you're missing is that Klein's latest book is about "The Power of Early Speed"--A little cross promotion between the news side and the publishing side? ;) Sounds like hype to me.

Never........they would never do that!

[Valuist]

In recent years, speed has always been much better on Churchill's grass compared to Keeneland's.

[kenwoodallpromos]

With such little information other than win %, it is easy to downplay the quote.
Much more info is needed to validate the stats- 11% leaders by how much? Sprints or routes? Dogs out? Field size? Purse level? What is Klein's method of predicting which horses will be among the first 3 at CD? Since the horse in 3rd wins 20%, is that in itself significant?
On GGF dirt the first 3 would do better than 47%.

[Jeff P]

Sounds like he's just promoting his new book.

-jp

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[toetoe]

The strangest part is that the 2nd- and 3rd-place horses at the 4f. are only winning 9% combined! That would be a huge tool, IF we could predict who those two would be.