Tele-Seminar-Form Cycle Analysis!

[Maxspa]

All,
For those of you who are interested in Cary Fotias, author of "Blinkers Off" and Xtra sheets, there is an upcoming Tele-Seminar on November 19th. The program will be hosted by Cary Fotias and John Pricci. Six races will be handicapped at three different tracks. Two races from Aqueduct, Churchill Downs, and Hollywood Park are on agenda. The cost is $59.95 with several bonuses given to the subscriber. You can get additional information on www.equiform.com.
This is for handicappers information only. I'm not affiliated with Mr. Fotias or his seminar. Having puchased "Blinkers Off", I received his flyer in the mail and wanted to share this info with any interested PA members!
Maxspa

[Tom]

Cool. Thanks for the heads up.

[kingfin66]

Some friends of mine who play Aqueduct told me that Mr. Fotias finished 2nd in the handicapping contest contested this past weekend. Not too shabby.

[Maxspa]

Kingfin, Tom and All,
Maybe we are seeing a unique method of handicapping communication that will be utilized on a regular basis. Although I'm not familiar with the different types, I believe Dave Schwartz used a similar program a few weeks ago. In handicapping as in most areas of business, knowledge is power!
Maxspa

[kev]

That's cool if he did being a form capper, this from the sheets site.

"Congratulations to sheet user Stephanie Davis for her victory in the Aqueduct handicapping contest and her mentor Joe Scanio who has now helped qualify enough friends and familly to field a hockey team. Although Stephanie graciously described herself as a Ragozin sheet user in the post contest interview the NYRA press release omitted this fact. "

[PaceAdvantage]

"Although Stephanie graciously described herself as a Ragozin sheet user in the post contest interview the NYRA press release omitted this fact. "

Of course they omitted it:

a) because nobody likes to give away valuable advertising
b) NYRA doesn't want in any way to look like they endorse the product, lest that lead to more federal indictments....lol

[John]

Just curious Max, have you ever used Fotias' concepts with Cj's figures or Pizzola's fulcrum,or Mitchell's Ability ratings beside those published on the Xtra sheets?

[Maxspa]

John,
I've read "Blinkers Off" and it was informative. However, in order to implement the handicapping ideas it requires the use of "Extras". "Extras" contain data that is used in one's daily handicapping and are an expensive learning tool especially with the learning curve necessary to become successful with the program.
For example Cary charges $150 an hour to tutor one in the use of "Extras" He mentions one of the reasons for having this Tele seminar is:"As I gave private lessons, I realized that what was so familiar to me was not so easily understood by the folks who bought my book and tried the Xtras." IMHO this is an honest eval of a beginning Xtra handicapper!
Max

[cj]

Just curious Max, have you ever used Fotias' concepts with Cj's figures or Pizzola's fulcrum,or Mitchell's Ability ratings beside those published on the Xtra sheets?

I have been told by a few guys who use my stuff that they work very well in relation to his ideas. I can't really say as I read the book, but it was about 125 in Saudi Arabia and the glue liquified, so the book fell apart, and I don't remember much. I did glance at Storm Cadet's copy at the PA Spa Getaway, but not long enough to remember much.

[John]

I have been told by a few guys who use my stuff that they work very well in relation to his ideas. I can't really say as I read the book, but it was about 125 in Saudi Arabia and the glue liquified, so the book fell apart, and I don't remember much. I did glance at Storm Cadet's copy at the PA Spa Getaway, but not long enough to remember much.

CJ, I remember reading something on this board not to long ago.So, I researched and found this from Delayjf 10-07-05


Given the way Cramer formultes his figures - which is not the same as Fotias's. I'd be careful about attempting to apply Fotias other form patterns using them. A pace top is a pace top no matter what pace figure you use. But his compression, negitive and positive spreads will not translate so readily.

I've personally had good results using CJ figures and most of Fotias's pace form patterns, BUT, keep in mind that CJ's numbers are not as tight as Fotias's. To see the form patterns that Fotias talks about, you have to convert one pace chart into another. By that I mean 1/5 of a second may be 1.5 points at the pace call for Fortias and 4 points for CJ. So a 15 point negitive spread might translate to a 25 - 30 point spread on CJ's scale.

I've had my best luck using CJ pace figures when the patterns are tight for example an 80-81 pace/speed figure in a six furling race would certainly qualify as a compression pattern for a horse stretching out. I recall this specific example because in real life this did happen and I got a 18.00 payout on this horse stretcing out for the first time.

[Storm Cadet]

CJ,
the only reason you only glanced at my book is because you and Buddha stayed up all night playing the ponies from Australia before retiring to your "BUNKER" for the night. ;) :D :sleeping:

I use Cary's theories and they work fine with CJ's figs.

SC

[cato]

Hmmm...wll, gee there maye be something to what Mr. Fotias has to say.

I attended the tele-seminar. It was pretty well done and lots of good ideas (I am about 1/2 of the way through "Blinker's Off").

In addition to talking about some preliminary concepts he uses in his handicapping and information provided by the XTRA s, he and his team also did two races at AQ and CD and and 3 races at HOL.

It was a very impressive day

Here are the picks and the results:

[CF Line is the odds line that Cary Fotias assigned to the contenders
Fair Odds are the odds that woudl be required to make a bet
Off at--are the post time odds
? -- means my notes were unclear as to what odds CF was using or demanding. CF demands that his horses go off at about 25% +/- greater than his odds line, as you can see from where my notes were clear]]

AQ 5th.
CF Line Fair Bet line off at Finish
2 9-5 5-2 7 show
7 3-1 4-1 4 out
5 7-2 9-2 1-2 WIN, PAID $3.00

AQ 7th.
CF Line Fair Bet line off at Finish
11 9-2 6-1 32-1 show
1 7-1 - 9-2 Place
2 7-1 - 14-1 WIN, PAID $31.00
4 7-1 - 7-2
7 12-1 - 50

$1 exacta $47.50
$1 tri $801

My notes indicate he did not give fair odds for 1,2 4, 7 but said he would take the higher odds horses and key them with the others. Based on the above I am sure he would have bet the #2 (the winner) heavily. While he probably ahd some money on #7, you could tell from the analysis that he was not very serious about that horse and that he liked the 11, 1 and 2 quite a bit
__________

CD 2d race

CF Line Fair Bet line off at Finish
6 3-1 4-1 8-5 place
10 12-1 15-1 9-2 show


CD 9th race
CF Line Fair Bet line off at Finish
3 ? ? 16 OUT
4 ? 12-1 5 SHOW
12 ? 15 23 OUT

CD 10th race

brief analysis--#2 Arch Assauilt was the best horse in the race by far and they gave it an even odds line (CF line). Horse won easily at 4-5

HOL

Hol RaCE 3

CF Line Fair Bet line off at Finish
2 E ? 3-5 Place
5 9-2 ? 5-1 Show
7 ? ? 7-1 WIN, paid $16.60
5 20-1 -- 27-1

Hol 4th

they were running short of time and CF just gave the two contenders,

#2 (3-1 ML ) and #4 (10-1 ML)

and suggested he woudl do a a key box , keying 4 with 1, 2, 7, 9

4 WINS and pays $34.40
2 places

$1 exacta pays $74

Hol 5th race

CF says #2 was big favorite and would be low low odds and says if he beats me he beats me (went off at 3-5)

Liked the #1, with CF odds of 4-1 (SCRATCHED)
LIked the #5 with CF odds of 2-1 (went off at 3-1)
threw in the #6 as a possible with cf odds of 8-1 (went off at 11-1)

The #2 favorite won easily, #1 scratched, # 5 was out and #6 showed.

If you had included the #2 in the Pick 3s and doubles you woudl have picked up a $400 + P-3 and a $90 + double

SO he publicly selected $31, $16 and $34 winners in 7 races...

Very impressive.

Take care, Cato

[Maxspa]

Cato,
Appreciate your lengthy, informative review. Awareness of handicapping processes and techniques are always an important part of one's skill development. It's a pleasure to read your review and now I wished I would have participated.
Maxspa

[Figman]

Regards the tele-seminar and the Saturday 7th race at Aqueduct - some callers into the Sunday morning TV show at Capital OTB in the Saratoga-Albany NY area were noting the "low" exacta payoff. Later John Pricci, who apparently has some connection to the Fotias tele-seminar, called in to say it was the Fotias-Pricci group (as he stated "bet heavily") that probably accounted for the low exacta price.

By the way, the Saturday a.m. Cusano-Veitch show and the Sunday a.m. Kling-Amello show are now available in real time at 10 a.m. Eastern time (Saturday) and 9:30 a.m. (Sunday) on the Internet at www.capitalotb.com. I am not sure if you have to be an account holder or not.

[cato]

Maxspa--I think that they plan to make the seminar available by tape or MP-3 or something like that. They also said they planned to do another seminar (gave me the impression that they would do several seminars.

I like CF's honesty when he pointed out this was a tough game. He used an example of a big horse he hit last week at something like $80. He said he had the horse at 4-1 on his odds line and that if his odds line is accurate he hits about 20% of the horses he puts at 4-1 which means yo coudl easily lose 15 or 20 in a row before you hit and you have to have patienece and confidence and determination to hand in there during the dry spells.

Figman -- as to moving the lines, it always sounds good and the exacta was a bit light but aparently the win betters at the seminar had it all wrong as the winner was 5-1 in the ML and went off at 14-1. Guess they passed up the win bet and pounded the exacta (to their detriment).

Take care, Cato

[highnote]

I am not surprised the Fotias hit 3 big winners during the seminar. His figures are about the best in the business and he is the best at using them. However, as more people begin to use his figures the prices may start to decline. That will be a sad day, as I like to use his figures and continue to get good payoffs.

My advice is to get his product while the getting is still good.