Pace,Class,Stretch loss figures etc

[dancingbrave]

I've been betting UK Racing the majority of my life very successfully and moved to North America a couple of years back and am learning the US Horse Racing game as I don't get pics for UK racing anymore though I still play.

I have been fascinated but bewildered by all the various forms of speed type figures that people use and deem important for US racing. Personally I think all these ratings/figures are reduntant. Horse racing for me can only be analysed by the time of race, comparitive times to races that day, sectional splits, track conditions etc and most importantly having a video library of how the horse ran. What you can see no figures will ever tell you and relying on someones rating system based on some notion that may/may not have any creedance seems bizarre and a futile exercise.

Any views?

[twindouble]

I've been betting UK Racing the majority of my life very successfully and moved to North America a couple of years back and am learning the US Horse Racing game as I don't get pics for UK racing anymore though I still play.

I have been fascinated but bewildered by all the various forms of speed type figures that people use and deem important for US racing. Personally I think all these ratings/figures are reduntant. Horse racing for me can only be analysed by the time of race, comparitive times to races that day, sectional splits, track conditions etc and most importantly having a video library of how the horse ran. What you can see no figures will ever tell you and relying on someones rating system based on some notion that may/may not have any creedance seems bizarre and a futile exercise.

Any views?

I'm of the same opinion but the verdict is still out as to how valid those numbers are that are discussed here. What does impress me is, these guys talk and include just about every factor that triditional handicappers like you and I use. It isn't like they don't know all the basics and some of the figures they are creating do cover trip handicapping as well. How they arrive at it by computation I don't know. From what I gather the numbers are just an added tool and are in some cases tied to the Beyer figures that I discounted many years ago. Correct me if I'm wrong guys.

[cnollfan]

Like Beyer's buddy Charlie says in one of his books (I think that's where I read it), "it's not how fast they run, it's how they run fast."

[twindouble]

Like Beyer's buddy Charlie says in one of his books (I think that's where I read it), "it's not how fast they run, it's how they run fast."

The how indicates pace I would think so how can a number determin the pace of a race prior to running? I don't need Beyer or anyone elses to make that dicision for me because the conditions of the race are different than when the number was created.

T.D.

[captvancouver]

I don t know much about horse-racing..I am a newbie.
But I am curious. Suppose we were to bet in the next last olympics on the mile run by human runners, and you could bet on Hickam El Giroux. Hickam hadn t lost a race in several years, except the time he fell. He consistently beat the teams of Kenyans,usually several in a race, who trained at high elevation, and would send out rabbits to wear Hickam down, but he would run the early pacers into the ground. He couldn t afford to let them in front of him,because they would box him in with 3 runners, and have their real contender mount an insurmountable lead. Hickam beat em all,when he was young,in some of the most incredible feats ever seen on a track..Sebastain Coe, and Steve Ovett the previous greats from Britain,were in awe of him. Wouldn t his previous PPPs mean anything. And what about the legends of American 100 yard sprinters in numerous world and olympic finals, with these phenomenal times. Because of their ppps, everyone knew who was going to win,..we just didn t know by how much. The pace factor became a big thing when the Canadian world 100 metre champ met the American 200 metre champ in a money race a few years ago(The 200 metre champ pulled up lame) It didn t matter if the previous race was in Amsterdam, on a rainy track, or wherever in the world. And believe me, we are talking 1/100 s of a second here, and there are slow tracks and fast tracks, and headwinds etc.I realize we are not talking about fractional times here, but there were speeds published of past performance.
Could you tell me what I am missing here, as a newbie. I can t imagine not looking at ppps, even if they cover different tracks..even if they may be an approximation because of variants.

[kenwoodallpromos]

1 thing you are missing is the trainer's influence. Since horses cannot speak, trainers use whatever hints they can to try to put a horse in a race when it is at its peak- but it is an educated guess. Add to that the other variables that you are familiar with and current available energy and rate of energy loss is crucial but hard to quantify.
This is all besides and speed or time aspects of data.
That is why I consider pp's showing a horse is maintaining its successful patterns of works and races as very important, as well as track variables and general predictability of the specific type of race as important.
The predictability of a 5-horse non-claiming sprint or turfer can be much different than a 1 1/4 stakes with 20 entrants or a tired favorite on an off-track.
A horse that always runs 5 weeks apart with works every 2 weeks who has been out 10 weeks after lugging out or stumbling must be viewed with caution.
To win overall you must find overlays regardless of tote odds and they must be of ROI value; In order to bet those with confidence you must assess predictability of the race and the risk of betting the individual horse which includes speed, stamina, physical condition, competitiveness, and race placement.
I have to know when the low-odds horse is the right bet and when I can bet multiple longshots with a positive ROI, and of course (even when the favorite is a lock), when the payoff will be too low for the risk.

[rastajenk]

...and most importantly having a video library of how the horse ran. What you can see no figures will ever tell you and relying on someones rating system based on some notion that may/may not have any creedance seems bizarre and a futile exercise.


I am more often led astray by the visual interpretation of a race than by the numbers it produces. I think a lot of people are, too, although many may be too stubborn to admit it. For every Bellamy Road and his high-falutin' Beyer fig, there are a dozen or more Borregos, Empire Makers, and Officers (to name a few of recent vintage off the top o' my bean) that wowed folks visually in one race but couldn't reproduce it in the next.

[captvancouver]

Really an interesting discussion for me. I am starting to change my mind about the figures.

[dav4463]

The Beyer numbers help me in a big way. My ultimate decisions are based on scanning the racing form and noting the up and down movement of the Beyers related to the class moves and the horse's form cycle. The Beyers along with other numbers help me to narrow the field down right off the bat, while the quick scan allows me to spot patterns that have won for me in the past. I cannot do it the same way with other figures. I don't know if I am just used to the patterns or what, but it works for me.

[Overlay]

Really an interesting discussion for me. I am starting to change my mind about the figures.

I'd make sure that you don't swing too far in the other direction, though, and start treating any one figure (whatever it may relate to) as the sole factor in determining the horse that you bet (unless you take probabilities associated with the figure into account, as well, and bet only when the odds are in your favor).

[garyoz]

I have been fascinated but bewildered by all the various forms of speed type figures that people use and deem important for US racing. Personally I think all these ratings/figures are reduntant.
Any views?

They are a handicapping tool like anyother. It is all in precision, reliability, nuance and form cycle interpretation. A quarter point forward move in Thorographs or The Sheets means something, as do double and triple tops, etc. Likewise a new pace top or cyclical pace top in the Xtra's can also be another handicapping tool. You also can pick up patterns for individual trainers, etc.

IMHO, most criticism of the "serious" speed and performance figures come from people who have never used them for any length of time. Personally, I don't think the Beyer figures are very precise or reliable and they are way overbet. If you want to become versed in using speed and performance figures it takes a time commitment, experience and money for the data. Just like handicapping.

BTW, comparing horse racing to human runners is worse than apples to oranges. Time in horse racing is far more compressed. For example, the rule of thumb that one second equals 5 or 6 horse lengths, compare that to humans. Humans are classified by gender not by a class system--most races are for claimers. Humans are not handicapped by weight carried. Humans don't run as often as horses and less likely to form cycles, etc. etc. Humans are far less likely to run when they are injured. Trying to generalize from one to the other is apt to get you in trouble. As an aside, I think that there is a better analogy between starting pitchers in baseball and horse racing form cycles.

[midnight]

. Humans don't run as often as horses and less likely to form cycles, etc. etc.

I don't agree with that. Most track athletes workout several times a week (a horse is lucky to workout twice in a week), and most on the tour compete in 20-30 meets a year (your average horse races less). In each meet, they may compete in multiple events, each with qualifying and (hopefully) a final heat.

[garyoz]

So do humans bounce? :) I still think trying to generalize from human runners to handicapping horses is problematic.

[Gary Geigercounter]

As an aside, I think that there is a better analogy between starting pitchers in baseball and horse racing form cycles.

I think that there's something to this. Baseball Prospectus uses a stat called PAP3 based on what they call Pitcher Abuse Points.

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1477

You have to be a subscriber to read that, but it's also in their 2001 annual, IIRC. While the stat is mainly designed to determine the effects of high pitchcounts on a pitcher's armhealth, "...(T)here's a strong trend for pitchers to allow more runs following a high pitch count outing. A typical high endurance pitcher gives up 7% more runs per inning in the three weeks following a 140+ pitch outing that the three weeks immediately prior."


GGC,

Another newbie who's read alot and is still Lost In The Fog

[dav4463]

"Personally, I don't think the Beyer figures are very precise or reliable and they are way overbet"


Knowing this allows me to spot the false Beyers and those who will be overbet and look elsewhere for the play. When I have a legitimate Beyer horse, I know to pass or use in some way. My favorite race is one where my top choice is not a top or close to top Beyer horse. This is still using the Beyers but in kind of a reverse way, knowing that the high Beyers of my non-contenders will help my price.

[46zilzal]

The how indicates pace I would think so how can a number determing the pace of a race prior to running?

Folks don't use SINGLE numbers.....

I don't need Beyer or anyone elses to make that dicision for me because the conditions of the race are different than when the number was created.


ONLY PROBLEM is that the horses usually CANNOT read those condtions and just run their race

[rastajenk]

"This is still using the Beyers but in kind of a reverse way, knowing that the high Beyers of my non-contenders will help my price."

Good point. Even though you use Beyers in your own personal way, you're still using them, as you said earlier, because you know them and trust your experience with them. Me too. I'm always amused when non-Beyer people zero in on the highest last-race number and point out that since they don't always win, the system must be flawed. That would be just one way to interpret speed figs, and certainly not the most profitable one. There are many ways to read the tea leaves.

[46zilzal]

Beyers are like reading the LAST chapter of book first...not very useful if you don't know what came before it