ROI of Favorites

[classhandicapper]

Does anyone have the data avaliable to test the ROI for all favorites and odds on favorites by field size for AQU, BEL, SAR, HOL, SA, DMR, CD, KEE, and GP?

[midnight]

I don't have the data available right now, but I've done queries on this recently. Based on past queries I've done, the ROI is around 0.83 overall for all favorites and about 0.85 for odds-on favorites. If the tote favorite is also the morning line favorite, the ROI drops a couple of points to 0.81 and 0.83 respectively.

[classhandicapper]

Does it vary by field size?

[midnight]

The ROI is inversely proportional to the field size, but the variance isn't that great. It's worse in small fields, a little better in larger ones.

[Jeff P]

I have data for 12 tracks during calendar year 2004 -
BEL AQU SAR CD KEE ELP CRC GP SA HOL DMR FG


Post Time Favorites by Size of Field...

Data Window Settings:
999 Divisor
Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: D:\2004\2004StarterDB\pl_Favorites_1.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 16186.70 17145.80 17172.60
Bet -19326.00 -19326.00 -19326.00
Gain -3139.30 -2180.20 -2153.40

Wins 3377 5447 6633
Plays 9663 9663 9663
PCT .3495 .5637 .6864

ROI 0.8376 0.8872 0.8886
Avg Mut 4.79 3.15 2.59


By: Field Size

Field Size Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
2 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
3 -0.60 14.00 0.9571 4 7 .5714 1.6351
4 7.50 172.00 1.0436 49 86 .5698 1.6303
5 -75.20 1048.00 0.9282 237 524 .4523 1.2942
6 -579.80 2804.00 0.7932 518 1402 .3695 1.0572
7 -540.50 3808.00 0.8581 715 1904 .3755 1.0745
8 -717.30 3694.00 0.8058 615 1847 .3330 0.9528
9 -326.60 2610.00 0.8749 450 1305 .3448 0.9867
10 -466.60 2500.00 0.8134 389 1250 .3112 0.8905
11 -188.40 1210.00 0.8443 186 605 .3074 0.8797
12 -218.60 1316.00 0.8339 195 658 .2964 0.8480
13 -12.60 86.00 0.8535 13 43 .3023 0.8651
14 -28.80 62.00 0.5355 5 31 .1613 0.4615
15 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
16 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
17 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
18 8.20 2.00 5.1000 1 1 1.0000 2.8614
19 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000

-jp

.

[Dave Schwartz]

Here you go... The last 20,000 races in my system. Unfortunately, it includes "co-favorites." (i.e. 2 horses @ 2/1 even though they are 2.1:1 and 2.2:1 - they are considered co-favs.) Sorry if it ruins it for you.

Oh, I threw in Day of Week and Race Number just 'cause I thought you'd get a kick out of it.

Dave

1- Overall
Win Bets
Starts Wins Pct $Net Opt IV PIV AvPay AvOdds AvPCh ExWins PExWins
Overall 21,950 7,620 34.7% $1.69 -10.8% 2.69 1.02 $4.87 1.44 1.0 2,836.85 7,457.43


310- Field Size
Win Bets
Starts Wins Pct $Net Opt IV PIV AvPay AvOdds AvPCh ExWins PExWins
2 2 0 0.0% -100.0% 0.41 1.0 1.00 1.18
3 18 8 44.4% $1.38 -55.9% 1.33 0.84 $3.11 0.57 1.0 6.00 9.52
4 188 93 49.5% $1.76 -15.5% 1.98 1.08 $3.55 0.81 1.0 47.00 86.09
5 1,017 449 44.1% $1.72 -14.7% 2.21 1.06 $3.90 1.00 1.0 203.40 422.86
6 3,147 1,186 37.7% $1.66 -14.0% 2.26 1.01 $4.42 1.22 1.0 524.60 1,177.85
7 4,486 1,609 35.9% $1.67 -12.5% 2.51 1.01 $4.65 1.34 1.0 641.05 1,593.50
8 4,142 1,423 34.4% $1.68 -11.1% 2.75 1.02 $4.89 1.47 1.0 517.75 1,394.36
9 3,330 1,128 33.9% $1.75 -7.9% 3.05 1.05 $5.16 1.58 1.0 369.96 1,072.48
10 3,000 914 30.5% $1.64 -10.6% 3.05 0.99 $5.39 1.69 1.0 300.00 924.59
11 1,265 401 31.7% $1.77 -6.4% 3.49 1.05 $5.57 1.74 1.0 114.99 383.35
12 1,156 351 30.4% $1.73 -7.3% 3.65 1.04 $5.69 1.85 1.0 96.29 336.69
13 108 27 25.0% $1.75 -5.0% 3.25 0.93 $6.99 2.09 1.0 8.31 28.97
14 91 31 34.1% $2.08 1.9% 4.77 1.19 $6.12 1.91 1.0 6.50 26.00


130- RaceNum
Win Bets
Starts Wins Pct $Net Opt IV PIV AvPay AvOdds AvPCh ExWins PExWins
1 2,104 780 37.1% $1.68 -12.5% 2.61 1.01 $4.55 1.27 1.0 299.21 769.54
2 2,223 748 33.6% $1.61 -14.0% 2.54 0.97 $4.79 1.40 1.0 293.91 767.27
3 2,212 848 38.3% $1.80 -7.4% 2.75 1.09 $4.69 1.36 1.0 308.75 779.16
4 2,272 779 34.3% $1.69 -10.6% 2.65 1.02 $4.93 1.47 1.0 294.39 762.65
5 2,260 778 34.4% $1.68 -11.1% 2.70 1.02 $4.89 1.45 1.0 288.56 764.82
6 2,266 771 34.0% $1.67 -11.3% 2.71 1.01 $4.92 1.47 1.0 284.78 760.11
7 2,302 780 33.9% $1.66 -11.8% 2.62 1.01 $4.89 1.48 1.0 298.25 771.29
8 2,284 768 33.6% $1.65 -12.0% 2.58 1.00 $4.91 1.46 1.0 297.42 770.16
9 2,088 724 34.7% $1.76 -7.8% 2.86 1.05 $5.08 1.51 1.0 253.06 691.39
10 1,155 389 33.7% $1.75 -7.8% 2.99 1.06 $5.19 1.61 1.0 130.06 367.79
11 332 112 33.7% $1.70 -9.9% 2.92 1.03 $5.04 1.53 1.0 38.42 108.88
12 180 58 32.2% $1.64 -11.6% 2.73 0.97 $5.10 1.50 1.0 21.24 59.72
13 145 44 30.3% $1.61 -11.8% 2.77 0.98 $5.30 1.67 1.0 15.90 45.08
14 108 36 33.3% $1.83 -4.9% 3.29 1.07 $5.48 1.68 1.0 10.93 33.49
15 19 5 26.3% $1.17 -34.0% 2.54 0.82 $4.44 1.60 1.0 1.97 6.07


140- DOW
Win Bets
Starts Wins Pct $Net Opt IV PIV AvPay AvOdds AvPCh ExWins PExWins
Sun 3,703 1,301 35.1% $1.72 -9.6% 2.70 1.04 $4.91 1.46 1.0 482.27 1,247.13
Mon 2,411 823 34.1% $1.63 -13.3% 2.63 0.98 $4.79 1.38 1.0 312.41 839.27
Tue 1,455 533 36.6% $1.73 -9.9% 2.82 1.05 $4.74 1.38 1.0 189.03 508.11
Wed 2,706 901 33.3% $1.61 -13.8% 2.54 0.98 $4.82 1.43 1.0 354.17 923.32
Thu 2,938 1,025 34.9% $1.72 -9.6% 2.72 1.03 $4.93 1.45 1.0 377.03 995.01
Fri 3,909 1,344 34.4% $1.68 -11.1% 2.66 1.02 $4.88 1.45 1.0 506.02 1,322.01
Sat 4,828 1,693 35.1% $1.73 -9.2% 2.75 1.04 $4.93 1.47 1.0 615.92 1,622.58

[ryesteve]

... and this is why db handicapping can make you nuts. Jeff and Dave both compile tons of data, and come up with inverted relationships between field size and ROI.

[classhandicapper]

Thanks. I was hoping the ROI would improve a bit more as the field size increased because there are usually a few very dead horses in those races that tend to be overbet a bit.