BRIS pace pars

[Tom]

Has anyone with TSN or BRIs databases ever done any studies to see what pace (E2) is associated with a winning speed figure?
I am trying to come with a chart that tells me what E2 is average, fast, or slwo for a speed figure.
I have put together a small db of about 2,000 winners and have some scatter diagrams that look very neat for distances with enough data points. Some distances don't have as many, so the data is less clustered.
One thing I have found, is the BRIS pars are gargbage - not realeted to reality at all.
I have statred making pars for NYRA and what really is happening is not what they call pars. Also, using a performance figure seems to be better than just the speed figure. Nothing as elaborate as CJ does, but simply average the E2 and SR mkaes a tight distribution.
I know a lot of guys and gals here use BRIS....just interested what things you are doing with the numbers. I love the things Mickhicken has shared with us.
This is more or less a fun with numbers thing, something to do for fun while I take time off from handicapping - nothing serious until after the Holidays - got to recharge and avoid burnout.

[andicap]

Isn't that what Randy Giles has done? I believe that's how he determines if a certain pace is Fast X or Slow x for a given final time (and vice versa).

This might not be what you're after tho.

[Tom]

Yup. But how does he do it? What is the par that he uses?

[michiken]

Tom, Thanks for the compliment on my posts.

1. Many years ago I did some investigation with the bris pars and they do suck. I have attached a pdf to illustrate my point.

a. Pacelines for the race shown are selected from the horses most recent 2 races - cheap claimers at Hoosier do not hold form and I like recency. The list was sorted by ability time (calculated).

b. I subtracted horses pace figs from the corepsonding race par obtaining all the minus numbers on the top right of the pdf.

c. I generated a graph of these minus numbers shown as par difference.

d. As you can see the 7 horse had a great early speed pattern of +3 and +2 compared to the pars. This horse appears to be the dominant E horse and was heavily bet down.

e. Notice from the graph the downward slope of the line towards the 7's speed fig. He decelerated badly and compared to the pars the his pace would be Fast/Fast/Slow. Conversely, look at the positive slope of the 9 horse's stretch run.

f. Even by being -18 points off of the pace at the 4f call, the 9 closed nicely for a $13.20 win/$103 exacta/$840 tri. The 7 quit in the stretch (partly cause of a late bias that night and partly because of the wrong energy pattern - another attached pdf for you).

g. Notice that the top 2 pace ablity contenders last distance raced (Ldis) were at 5.5 furlongs. Both nags were close as compared to the pars but both of these horses ran out of the money - todays distance of 6 furlongs. These high energy types were racing at the wrong distance. (Perhaps watch the 7 next time at 5f or stealing a mile if he can be rated?)

h. It is my contention that comparing pars you are trying to create will run into this distance anamoly. Unless you choose pacelines from the exact same distance, it can give odd results. Another issue you will find is that sprinters will be highly overated in the first few calls when stretching out.

3. Part of the reason that I started tweaking the figs is to give myself a better understanding of how to compare them across different distances. Again, it is one method of pace analysis that points to chalk devouring payoffs.

4. If you develop the median pars as you speak of, you may be limiting your choices to the 'average paced' horse (the horse that tripped the timer the fastest). Associating a specific E2 rating could limit your choices unless you examine the total pace scenario. If you dig deeper like I did, you can watch for incremental changes that can point to off the pace runners at a price.

5. As long as your playing with the numbers, add a %Median to your arsenal to judge the requirements of various distances. Good luck with your endeavors.

My outside the box 2 cents worth.

[richrosa]

Cheers michiken. That was an outstanding post.

I too use Med% in my arsenal and keep track of the pars against distances to throw horses out who don't meet the profile. Your post has several key points that I will consider in my endeavors.

One thing that Sartin-followers are very familiar with is the concept of the counterenergy horse. In the case of your diagram its the horse going in the other direction at the end of the race. For years I've used that horse as a key (top or bottom) of exactas to some degree of success. When that horse can be isolated, it makes exotics a bit easier.

If you play nightime tracks like I do, you probably know that this analysis is key at MNR where (besides all the other confusion), your track profile on energy distribution is key.