WorkOuts

[Derek2U]

Lately, I've been looking a lot at horses' workouts & its VERY
useful. I'm wondering what the opinion is of judging WOs
& using it to rate horses? Any thoughts?

[Observer]

I think some of the more important things in judging workouts is knowing the trainer's patterns and understanding the horse's habits.

Somes trainers typically work their horses fast, like Baffert, who seems to have an incredible amount of horses work 5f in under 1:00. Meanwhile, a guy like Lukas might typically get his horses 5f in about 1:01. That doesn't mean Baffert never has a horse go over 1:00, and it doesn't mean Lukas never has a horse go under a minute .. those are just generalities I've noticed about those trainers.

With regard to the horses individual personalities and work ethics ;) you might have a horse that is a "morning glory," who burns up the track in the morning, but burns money in the afternoon, or you might find a horse just don't work sharply but can really run when in the heat of competition.

[ranchwest]

It can also help to know whether the horse is running alone or in tandem and the horse with which it is running.

I know of people who are making a lot of money off of quarter horses by monitoring workouts.

[smf]

Derek,

Only thing I can add to Observer's comments is if you can get to a track a couple of times in the morning for the workouts and take in what's going on, it'll be very helpful (you'll understand that a clocked time isn't the be all, end all). Not all trainers work their runners the same way.

You gotta be there to get a good idea of what's going on.

[Rick]

My experience tells me that any workout evaluation method would have be entirely different for west coast tracks than for east coast tracks. But I think it would be more useful to use both races and workouts as a measure of form.

[rrbauer]

To follow Rick's comments, the workout regimen is completely different on the west coast circuit from any other. Also, the clocker's interpretations about the nature of the works differ. For example, some 80 percent or more of the works in the east (and Kentucky) are termed "breezing". Less than 5 percent of the works on the west coast are termed "breezing". If you look at works from horses trained by Lukas, Baffert, etc., who have horses running on multiple circuits, you will see that when those guys work their horses in KY and NY that the work effort is "B"; yet, same horse working in CA and the work effort is "H" (handily). From that you can glean a little info. For example, a good work in CA that is termed "B" is a damn good work! And, a work in NY that is termed "H" means that the horse was extended, maybe all out. Beyond that I don't pay much attention to the "how".

To me, the best use of workout data is in situations where you can determine from the work (improved) that the horse's next race effort will probably be improved. Also, workout knowledge on 1st timers and long-layoff runners are useful. As someone pointed out knowledge of trainers and their usual workout regimen is important. Guys like Baffert, Bonde, Mel Stute, etc. usually work their horses fast. On the other hand, Drysdale, Mandella, Frankel, etc., tend towards slower works. Some of that has to do with where the trainers usually run their horses (sprints vs. routes).

Some players mis-interpret the absence of workouts. Just because a horse has only a few works listed doesn't mean that it hasn't been on the track exercising. Also, some trainers will put periodic 3/8 mile breezes in a horse that don't get on the workout tab because of where or how or when the horse did it. If you look at works for Baffert's horses, you will see a lot of 5f works. Most of those are actually 6f works where the horse breaks off at the 5/8 pole and works around past the finish line to the 7/8 pole. The clockers stop their watches when the horse hits the finish line; hence, a 5f work.

Workout data can be useful but you can't use it blindly.

[pic6vic]

If your playing the southern cal circuit, there are some workout reports that are excellent. Believe me they are worth the money.
As for all the other circuits see the other posts.

[Tom]

With all thie inconsistenciesabout WO's, I never use them negatively, that is, if there are none at all, I don't worry about it.
They are probably there but I am not going to see them or know anything about them. No matter. I don't totally understand electricity either, but I use my lamp and my computer, so I guess it is there. But if a horse does show goods works, or works since the last race, especially at cheap tracks, I mentally upgrade the horse's form evaluation. I don't realy care how fast they are because the time can't be related easily to anything for reference.
And now, at FL, they have a swimming pool for horse and these "dips" are not recorded. I think the swim is much more important than a WO...

[Rick]

Tom,

I've also heard of them using treadmills for the conditioning and that wouldn't be recorded either.

[so.cal.fan]

Rick,
Where do they have treadmills?

I have noticed that at many tracks back East, the horses show very few works.
Do they train on farms, training centers on a regular basis?
Here in So. Cal they sometimes train at farms, but not too often.
We have a training center, San Luis Rey Downs, they record works, but probably not as accurately as at the track.
Even at Los Alamitos, they often miss TB workouts.

[Rick]

socal,

I don't know where they have them, but Tom Ivers mentions it in his book "Complete Guide to Claiming Thoroughbreds". That's about all I know about it, since I'm not connected in any way to the owner/trainer side of the game. Maybe you could ask around. You probably know someone who could give you a better answer than I could. If you find out, please let me know. I'd really like to know a lot more about how to properly condition a thoroughbred. There seem to be some wildly conflicting theories about it. Hey, somebody has to be right, but where's the evidence?

[Observer]

Don't know how widespread the use of a treadmill is, but I have seen clips on tv of horses on treadmills. I've always thought it was more for therapy after injury than anything else, like the swimming pools they use at layup facilities when attempting to bring horses back.

As already mentioned, just because a horse may show a couple of weeks between works doesn't mean the horse hasn't been out working daily. Horses are frequently sent out to just go the "wrong way" at a trot. Or you might have horses cantering or doing long gallops. None of this would be timed, yet the horse is getting in stamina building work.

Also, could it be that since many tracks here in the east are typically deeper than those out west, like in California, the horses here are getting more out of their works, and therefore need less of those published-type works?

[Triple Trio]

My understanding is that treadmills are very common in Hong Kong.

Our racing season has just ended and the top trainer honor went to a new trainer from Australia. His methods are very different from other trainers. Very few fast or long workouts but lots of swimming. His success has caused other trainers to copy his methods and so horses in Hong Kong are swimming a lot.

[so.cal.fan]

Isn't it funny how some trainers will jump in there an copy others that are having success?
True story:
Years ago, when Mish Tenney was training horses in Calif. for Rex Ellsworth (SWAPS), they would turn horses out in cow pastures.
The cows would chew the horses tails! There horses came in with almost no tails! Another trainer, who is a HUGE SUCCESS today, so I will not mention his name, decided this was the secret to their success, and cut all his horses tails off!!!!!

[rrbauer]

Re: Treadmills

Treadmills are used more in rehab than general training.

Generally they are used in a pool so that the buoyancy provided by the water lessens the amount of weight that the legs and joints are being subjected to.

I wouldn't view treadmills as a serious substitute for over-the-track horse training.

[Rick]

Tom Ivers mentioned treadmills as a recommended training technique, but I don't think most trainers agree with his theories and wouldn't expect them to be widely used. He's also and advocate of interval training which is not well accepted by most either. I read his book to try to get some insights on the effectiveness of different training methods, but can't say I've benefitted greatly. However, it was very interesting to read something from the trainer/owner point of view, especially regarding claims.

[so.cal.fan]

Rick,
I tend to agree with rrbauer on treadmills. Even swimming.
Seems to me that horses who need such things, are probably problematic, inconsistent, etc. We probably wouldn't be interested in them as bets, anyway.
One of the good trainers in So. Cal.
discussed workouts with us one day.
He maintains that after a race, you should see a work of 4 f. or more within 12 days. He thinks that sometimes a work of 3 f about 7 days after a race, is to get the soreness out of horses.
He cites Charlie Whittingham doing this for the above reason.
If you check out all the stakes races you see the best patterns of works. I go by that, and I only bet claiming races.
Some trainers have different patterns, you have to know who and what they are.
I have a "loose" rule. I like to see a 5f or more work in the past 13 days. This is for distance horses. I don't know about sprints, again, I would study the Stakes races.
I need to do more work on this angle, it is interesting.

[delayjf]

I have noticed that certain trainers do have certain WO patterns that are profitable. One So Cal trainer comes to mind that has in the past entered a FTS with only three published works but has won one race at 45-1 and came in second by a head at 35-1, using the same pattern.
I know most Ron McAnally layoff winners show at least one work at 6 or 7 furlongs and some trainers work their horses at Hollywood and ship them into SA. Just a few examples. Perhaps So Cal fan knows of a few more.

[karlskorner]

Unless you can identify each horse on the track, going to view workouts in the morning is a waste of time, they don't wear name tags. If you think you are going to get a peak at the clockers charts, forget it, even JC won't see these. Buying a "clockers" reports is a waste of money, as the clocker told his trainee "48 & 2 makes 50", you'll never read about the good ones.

The only thing worthwhile is knowing a Trainers patterns, means some bookkeeping, but at times it's worthwhile.

Karl

[Rick]

socal,

I was thinking of maybe looking at 5f works (or 5 and up) only to try to get a rating. What do you think of that approach?

[so.cal.fan]

Rick,
Based on time?
I really don't know. I have heard of people doing it, but haven't ever checked it out.

I like to study a few of the top trainers, for instance Frankel.
Check out his work patterns for good horses on turf. It is interesting.

It would be interesting to research how top trainers train different types of horses for different types of races.
I'll bet you would uncover some good patterns.
I'm sure some of you have done it. Without giving away your research discoveries, does it work?

[Doug]

Over the years I have found one workout pattern that can produce some good longshots.

Early in the 2 yr old season I look for 1st timers that have worked longer than todays race.

Examble today's race is 4 1/2 fur. and the horse has worked 5 fur.

Find it is better when the longer work is not the last work for the horse.

Doug

[Rick]

Doug,

Anything on these 2 furlong races they run in SoCal? Sometimes they run two of them in one day! I've just about given up betting there because there are so many obstacles to finding many playable races compared with other parts of the country. I do, however, love the turf races there.

[rrbauer]

delayjf wrote:
"One So Cal trainer comes to mind that has in the past entered a FTS with only three published works but has won one race at 45-1 and came in second by a head at 35-1, using the same pattern. "


Comment: There a few trainers (and owners) who have arrangements with farms that have training facilities, usually a 5/8 mile track, where their babies are broken, breezed and made ready to race; and, where layup horses get some training prior to going back to the track. When you see a FTS show up with but two or three works. chances are good that it's been training at one of those facilities. If it gets bet, chances are good that it's a runner!

Also, in Utah and Arizona (and maybe Idaho-not sure), there are unsanctioned race meets, usually in conjunction with a county fair, where horses race but the results never show up in the form of a pp line. These horses show up in Calif looking like FTS and get treated as such, as far as conditions, etc. Usually, these horses' "papers" will have such races noted on the back and a sharp racing secretary will advise the track handicapper/ML maker when a horse with that background has been entered to race.

The winner of last Saturday's 10th at HOL, Slouisana Lew, a FTS, had only a couple works, however I knew that it had been at Boise in training before coming to SoCal and also that it had been in training a year ago. The ML maker laid it at 7/2. Jeff Mullins (Arizona) trainer. Had to use it. It won for fun and looked very accomplished for a FTS!

[Doug]

Rick wrote,

Doug,

Anything on these 2 furlong races they run in SoCal? Sometimes they run two of them in one day! I've just about given up betting there because there are so many obstacles to finding many playable races compared with other parts of the country. I do, however, love the turf races there.

If the horse has workedout 3 furlongs then I would play that horse.

Like anybody would, I need to get at least 5 or 6-1 or over.

Doug

[Rick]

Doug,

Does that really happen? Is what you're saying based on actual results or theory?

[Derek2U]

there is a web page called www.wired4speed.com ...
i found it, called the guy in the ad, and found the greatest
chat about horses. the guy wouldnt even sell me the proggy,
but he is making a download version. check it out. i almost
forgot, his page mentions that tom ivers guy.

[cj]

there is a web page called www.wired4speed.com ...

The program is boasting good days in 1997 , hope its had a few since then! Probably a great guy, just needs a page update.

CJ

[Doug]

Rick,

Doug,

Does that really happen? Is what you're saying based on actual results or theory

Does what really happen?

If you are referring to working longer than todays race is (for mdn 2 year olds) yes it really happens.

This little method can get you some big time payoffs. Not just theory. I am one of those players that does not keep records (at least not at the present time), but believe me it happens.

A year or so ago had a horse at gg that paid $140.00. This pattern is not always present and tends to not perform as well after the 2 yr olds start racing 6 furlongs. Also mdn claimers and not real good bets with this pattern. Demand real long odds in mdn clm.

It is especially potent if the longer work is followed by a speed work.

Example today's race is 5fur. The horse has worked six fur. At least we know the horse can run the distance.

Check some past racing forms or whatever and see for yourself.

Doug

[Rick]

Derek,

You've definitely found better drugs than the rest of us.

What are the secret fitness factors of these guys anyway? Since they gave up in 1997 they must not have worked too well.

[Rick]

Doug,

Thanks so much for sharing that idea. Sounds like a great idea for spot plays playing all tracks.

[Doug]

Rick

Thanks so much for sharing that idea. Sounds like a great idea for spot plays playing all tracks.


I seriously believe if you have a hard ass (which I don't have) you could make some good money using this as a spot play up until about late july or early August.

Doug

[pic6vic]

Re all the discussion about workouts and FTS.

The information is out there and available. However it is not free.

I subscribe too a service for workouts and also one for trainer stats. Cost money, but I don't see how you can make a serious play without this information. Sometimes it just gives you enough to make a big play. They definitely are worththe money, especially the workouts.