Hidden Energy on Turf

[shoelessjoe]

For any of you old Sartinites out there did you find this readout a good one for predicting turf races.Just in case you forgot it's 2nd fraction velocity +3rd fraction velocity.I have just started to take a look at this and it seems promising.Shoeless

[midnight]

Fr2 + Fr3 would make sense in turf races.

[xfile]

For any of you old Sartinites out there did you find this readout a good one for predicting turf races.Just in case you forgot it's 2nd fraction velocity +3rd fraction velocity.I have just started to take a look at this and it seems promising.Shoeless

I do know TOTAL PACE works very well on turf. That is mid pace plus late pace.

[46zilzal]

I thought looking for LATE MOVERS on the lawn was an epiphany learned after the first few races one 'caps on the grass.

[michiken]

I do the same type of comparison only I use bris speed figs. I calculate the 2nd and 3rd fractions by subtracting the various pace and speed figs. In my software, I call it 'turn time' and 'final fraction'.

IMHO, this is an unexamined realm of handicapping and it can point to long priced mutuals. A good case in point is the BC where Pleasant Home had excellent 2nd and 3rd fractions - most software downgraded this horse because of the slow pace it ran against. Similarly, Steviewonderboy and Silver Train had good final fractions.

The hardest part about this approach is trying to predict when the pace will colapse (i.e. pace pressure) and allow these types to win. In the recent BC Sprint, I saw nothing but rabbits running in front of Lost in the Fog. I keyed in on Silver Train, Taste of Paradise and Lion Tamer as coming on late. Stupid me keyed Paradise on top and missed out.

Another comparison that I like to make is to those early speed types that got loose on the lead and essentially won the race in the first quarter. These types charge out of the gate, run a sufficient 2nd quarter and build up a big enough lead to hold on. Even though this type of horse will exhibit the better speed and pace figs, examining the final fraction compared to the rest of the field can predict meltdown.

Example from last nite 11-2-05 at Mountaineer. Race 10 - the 1 horse 'Southern Eyes' had figs of 2f=95 4f=96 6f=69 and was bet down to 4-1. This was a case of impending meltdown because calculating the final fraction (69-96) = minus 27! See attached pdf.

Going further, you could calculate percent median (95+96)/(95+96+69) = 0.734 meaning that the horse used 73.4% of the total energy during the first two calls. At Mountaineer, this energy distrubution would be better suited for 5 furlongs. The last killer ingredients were a muddy track and the 1 post. This horse finished dead last........ Along with the 10 horse who had a minus 23 (bet down to 4.7-1) they both ran out of the money.

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On another subject, I think it would be great to experiment with internal fraction variants:

Think about it. One horse runs 6f with internal fractions of 22.2/23.2/24.3 = 1:09.7 (on a fast track) while another from the same race runs 24.0/23.0/23.1 = 1:10.1

WHICH horse gained on the fast pace? Which horse would you bet if they were stretching out to a mile?

This Could make things interesting with the winter weather and the off track conditions.

[shoelessjoe]

Michiken,Good stuff you posted there well done. Shoeless

[Tom]

Michiken, always a pleasure to read your posts.


LP, or HE in turf.....I find it generally the factor I use most often, along with final fraction.

LP is also pretty powerful in dirt MSW races as well.

[delayjf]

Ken Massa at HTR did a study on Late Pace (F2 + F3) Oct 01 newsletter.
www.homebased2.com

LP is also pretty powerful in dirt MSW races as well.
I love this angle too, especially when a bunch of front running sprinters are stretching out. They haven't yet learned to rate. Surprizingly I've also gotten some real bombs on the turf with this angle (MSW)