6-1 in the program, 24-1 on the board...wins!!

[Geekyguy]

I saw the thread with the guy who hit the 8-1 progam horse who paid 50-1. Another one came flying down the stretch to win a turf race at the Meadowlands yesterday.

These "outcasts" win fairly often. I think the connections just decide at the last minute to send the horse when they see the price. Why wouldn't they?

[SmartyMarty]

I saw the thread with the guy who hit the 8-1 progam horse who paid 50-1. Another one came flying down the stretch to win a turf race at the Meadowlands yesterday.

These "outcasts" win fairly often. I think the connections just decide at the last minute to send the horse when they see the price. Why wouldn't they?



I see..

there's a magic SEND button on these nags..

just press it when the rent is due..

how naive..

[SilverSow]

I see..

there's a magic SEND button on these nags..

just press it when the rent is due..

how naive..

Not sure if naive's the word. Realistic, perhaps? How many times do you see a horse come through with a big effort when it's been claimed? There's some days that trainers will be trying a little harder with the horse than others - just comes down to how well-meant the horse is that day.

And if I had a horse that was (correctly) listed as a ML 5-1 or so going off at big balloons odds, I might give the jockey some instructions that imply getting a little more serious with the horse today.

Dave

[kenwoodallpromos]

You did not mention that the 3-2 shot did not fire, another longshot almost won, and the splits were like 25; 50; 1:15. Unusually slow for that day's racing. Paid about $50.00.

[twindouble]

Not sure if naive's the word. Realistic, perhaps? How many times do you see a horse come through with a big effort when it's been claimed? There's some days that trainers will be trying a little harder with the horse than others - just comes down to how well-meant the horse is that day.

And if I had a horse that was (correctly) listed as a ML 5-1 or so going off at big balloons odds, I might give the jockey some instructions that imply getting a little more serious with the horse today.

Dave This post is just add something, not in disagreement.

Oh, the wonder of this game, never fails to amaze me how some people view and react to what's going on when it comes to handicapping and wagering. We have egotists along with the ego maniacs that have the need to show the world they are the best and they are personally reaching in your pocket taking your money and rubbing it in your face, cracks me up. Then there's the ones that walk around with an air, like they have the inside on all that's happening and your just outside looking like a chump, unreal! The reality of the game is, it all has to do with you and no one else.

Here's a little story that might make you laugh, just keep in mind it's just one of hundreds so I can say it just fits into the conversation and makes a point.

OTB sucks but this was prior to this computer and learning how to type. I was about half way through the Finger Lakes meet, was following the track very closely. I bet a horse that I thought had the right conditions and was coming into form, well the horse stumbled out of the gate right down to his knees, I figured from a dead stop he lost 8 or 10 saved some ground but was 7 wide on the far turn and ran even, continued wide and only got beat by about 5 1/2. didn't have to make note on that one, it was burnt in my mind. The horse comes back in 10 days or so entered in what deemed lesser company than his last. So, there I was sitting about two tables from five guy ego maniacs jumping around, laughing and screaming the big yessssssss like they owned the place like we were just observers, cashing their 2-1, 6-5's and $12.00 exacta's. Then the big guy hot shot that was doing the handicapping blurted out he had a lock in the next, no holds bared, in other words going to unload. Just so happen to be my race, two min to post he was 45-1 then floated down to 35-1 entering the gate. He broke third with the pace and it was all over from there, then pandemonium broke out at the hot shots table, his racing form went flying through the air all over the place, swaring like crazy saying it was a boat ride and will never bet that crooked track again. Just another day at the track to me but I do miss all that goes on.

Now if you want to hear some losing stories, your right I've got many. :cool: You know, if I were smart enough I should have brought someone with me every time I went to the track to record on video or film back then, it would make for one heck of movie, laughs and tears, although Let It Ride was a good one, a little far out but I enjoyed it.

Good luck,

T.D.

[The Hawk]

No one has mentioned how little money there is in the pools on Tuesday afternoons, even at the Meadowlands. I don't have figures but I'd bet the pools were skewed by a few "large" win bets on other runners.

[twindouble]

No one has mentioned how little money there is in the pools on Tuesday afternoons, even at the Meadowlands. I don't have figures but I'd bet the pools were skewed by a few "large" win bets on other runners.

Hawk, Skewed is a good point. To me it don't mean squat where the money is coming from or when, who in there right mind is going to bet a horse just because he's an overlay, underlay or got last min action? What the heck, they can just toss the form and see if they can make money over the long haul betting that way. I doubt it. I look at it this way, if I like horses, I just hope the general public don't see or know what I know hoping I get some value. Sometimes they get onto my horse or horses other times they don't. So-called smart money can be awfull dumb at times and so can we.:D Besides, a good handicapper gambler won't just go with the flow, he has confidence in his picks and feels he has an edge.


Good luck,

T.D.

[JustRalph]

You did not mention that the 3-2 shot did not fire, another longshot almost won, and the splits were like 25; 50; 1:15. Unusually slow for that day's racing. Paid about $50.00.

Nice Analysis Ken..............to me these facts are the most relevant

[Geekyguy]

You did not mention that the 3-2 shot did not fire, another longshot almost won, and the splits were like 25; 50; 1:15. Unusually slow for that day's racing. Paid about $50.00.

The 3-2 shot may have "fired" but gave up; we don't know. The other longshot busted up my exacta (I had the 24-1 over three horses), and pace scenarios are impossible to predict, but that was hardly implausible.

The morning line handicapper makes a value line. At least one guy on the planet -- a guy who is paid to do such things -- said the horse should be 6-1, and there he was at 24-1. He had decent form and the 6-1 appeared to be the correct price. I didn't like the horse except as one of several contenders, but I sure as hell liked the price. Even if he hadn't won, I bet him to place to ensure a profit if he ran second. He paid $24.00+ to place, still almost double what the program said he should pay to win.

How many reasons are we going to find to bet a 24-1 shot anyway? They do win from time to time so I figure if I have any reason to like it, I'll take a stab as long as I don't have a strong opinion on the race (I didn't here).

[Geekyguy]

What the heck, they can just toss the form and see if they can make money over the long haul betting that way.

I did just that about a decade ago, for a full month. I forced myself to make picks based on tote-board watching and more or less was able to break even. Now I incorporate it into my betting and get much better value for my money as a result, and tend to include horses I otherwise would have been burned by, while cashing in more on my winners who fit my tote angles.

Even now, if I see a race going on and there's a tote angle in play, I'll bet based strictly on the board, and have good results doing that.

[Geekyguy]

Btw, in the 1999 Belmont Stakes, Vision And Verse (trained by Mott) was 20-1 in the program and 54-1 on the board No other horse was bet down or "outcast." I figured Mott at 12F in a G1 stakes at 54-1 wasn't a bad deal so I included him, and he paid an exacta to place ($44).