Review of "Ten Steps to Winning"

[midnight]

The book, written by Danny Holmes, is essentially a hodgepodge of different concepts that have been presented by others.

The author makes some very broad generalizations, and there are a lot of inaccuracies. For example, he says on page 5 "Because of the racing officials and (drug) testing procedures horse racing is considered by many experts as a very honest sport."

The author presents an elimination method to attempt to narrow the field down to a few contenders. The method of doing so is very basic, and the reader could do just about as well by eliminating all the horses that are 8-1 odds and higher.

The author touts that he will present "a different handicapping method for every racing condition." What he actually does is have the user lump all races of a certain type (for example, sprints) into one heap and handicap them all by the same factor (for example, pace). '

The author presents a simplistic betting and money management method, which is basically a multi-horse dutch of all contenders that are 4-1 or higher.

The author then presents a test of one week of races at Nocal and Socal tracks. Some of the winners are arrived at by some other manner than what is outlined in the book.

All in all, this book will be of value mostly to newcomers who want a general understanding of the game and don't plan on becoming more than recreatioional players. Serious players might get an idea or two from it (I can't say that I did, but everybody's mileage is different), but I wouldn't personally consider it among the top 100 handicapping titles.

[oddswizard]

I would like to discuss your review of my book. No handicapping book has ever pointed out that sprint races should be handicapped by Pace and Distance races by Class. I agree the elimination of horses is a very basic method of eliminating contenders. That is the beauty of the formula. However, eliminating all horses over 8-1 would be bad as I get a lot of longshot winners. Intercontentinental and Shirocco were my top selections on BC day. I do lump handicapping methods by the distance of the race and it works. It also saves a lot of time. The winners used in the samples were arrived at using the exact methods listed in the book. I am sorry you are critical of my book. However, in over ten years this is the very first unfavorable review. My suggestion is to re read the ABC Money Management and put it into practice. The results might surprise you. The book is simply a winning method of playing the races. If your method is better-more power to you. As a professional handicapper I am always open for your suggestions. All I want is profits. Danny Holmes

[dav4463]

I guess it is no coincidence then that I do very well in distance races and frequently do very poor in sprints.

I do not use pace at all except for run styles. I focus primarily on class and class moves as they relate to the horse's basic ability.

[xfile]

[QUOTE=midnight]
The author presents a simplistic betting and money management method, which is basically a multi-horse dutch of all contenders that are 4-1 or higher.
QUOTE]

Any multi horse dutch should be alot higher than 4-1. I use 8-1 and up as a rule of thumb. By the time you figure out the overall odds on the multi horse bet you would have to cash an extremely high % if using anything in the 4-1 to 6-1 range.

[Dave Schwartz]

The people on this board are typically pretty advanced as horse players. As such, we have a natural tendancy to forget that it is real tough for any author to come up with something we've never heard of before.

When I first read this book I was somewhat pleased because I got a rather an idea from it. - That is my first requirement for a book being worthwhile at all.

In comparison to the other books I have read recently, I can say that Ten Steps has far more to offer.

Although Mr. Holmes does not tell you how to do it the book is actually applicable to many handicappers. He offers a step-by-step plan for playing the races profitably. It is a general strategy for play that makes sense.

Understand that I am not advocating this particular approach - my own is quite a bit different .

What I am saying is that the strategy he puts forth is well-organized and workable. That makes the book very worthwhile, especially in comparison to much of the other stuff available.

I can give this book a B- in the scheme of things and rate it as a worthwhile read, especially relative to purchase price and time involved in the reading.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[GameTheory]

The people on this board are typically pretty advanced as horse players. As such, we have a natural tendancy to forget that it is real tough for any author to come up with something we've never heard of before.

When I first read this book I was somewhat pleased because I got a rather an idea from it. - That is my first requirement for a book being worthwhile at all.

In comparison to the other books I have read recently, I can say that Ten Steps has far more to offer.

Although Mr. Holmes does not tell you how to do it the book is actually applicable to many handicappers. He offers a step-by-step plan for playing the races profitably. It is a general strategy for play that makes sense.

Understand that I am not advocating this particular approach - my own is quite a bit different .

What I am saying is that the strategy he puts forth is well-organized and workable. That makes the book very worthwhile, especially in comparison to much of the other stuff available.

I can give this book a B- in the scheme of things and rate it as a worthwhile read, especially relative to purchase price and time involved in the reading.
I agree. A "non-advanced" handicapper, who is typically overwhelmed by data and conflicting advice, could do a lot worse than this book to put some structure into his approach.

However, I don't think the money management scheme advocated (at least as it has been explained on this board by the author -- I have an older edition of the book sans said strategy) is necessarily applicable to other methods as it depends on a certain hit rate, average mutuel, etc. (I can easily come up with winning scenarios that turn into losers using that strategy.) That is true of any money management strategy that doesn't allow for the assignment of specific probabilities or varying amounts of "value" offered by different betting scenarios...

[SPEEDHORSE]

How did Danny Holmes computes his figures in this book? How did he arrived at his 3 likely contenders? These questions are addressed to all who have read the book.

[Handiman]

Odds wizard,

I'm a bit confused. Especially if you are D.H. I doubt if you remember, but about 10 years ago a friend of mine named Lance and I sat in Santa Rosa's OTB with you for a day and played live.

The D.H. I sat with was a funny and generally nice person. You in fact gave me a copy of your book and signed it.

Now here's where the confusion comes from. I was in Las Vegas last year talking with Howard Schwartz in Gambler's Book Club store and he told me that Danny Holmes had passed away not long before our discussion took place. And Howard is usually pretty knowledgeable about the comings and goings of authors.

So what is going on? How can Howard be right and yet you post here, unless you are using a computer from the other side?

I'm just really curious.

Handiman:)

[PaceAdvantage]

This is an old thread. I believe Mr. Holmes/oddswizard has since passed away....

[timtam]

Danny Holmes has passed away but if you do a search there are quite a

few posts referring to this topic. Actually I believe there is a thread to an

interview with Danny Holmes which was quite informative. And of course

this was before he passed in case any wise guys get cute with life beyond.

[Handiman]

I feel like such an ass. In my haste I didn't bother to look at the post dates. I'm usually much more attentive to detail.

Please forgive my lack of the use of my brain. I will tuck my tail between my legs and scurry off now to the hole in the wall from whence I came.

Handiman:blush:

[Overlay]

Danny Holmes has passed away but if you do a search there are quite a few posts referring to this topic. Actually I believe there is a thread to an interview with Danny Holmes which was quite informative.

Here's that thread:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=3837

[turfnsport]

The author makes some very broad generalizations, and there are a lot of inaccuracies. For example, he says on page 5 "Because of the racing officials and (drug) testing procedures horse racing is considered by many experts as a very honest sport."

Sounds like the book could use an update. :lol:

[timtam]

Is that supposed to be funny :confused:

[turfnsport]

Is that supposed to be funny :confused:

Yes, I found "Because of the racing officials and (drug) testing procedures horse racing is considered by many experts as a very honest sport" hysterical.

[ranchwest]

Here's that thread:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=3837
That seems to point to an attachment.

[Overlay]

That seems to point to an attachment.

Yes, the interview is in the attachment (as it appears on the screen that comes up when you click on the link that I posted, and then scroll down). (The link that I posted is the direct link to the interview, as it was contained in the first post of the thread. It was not a link to the thread itself. Sorry that I was imprecise in my terminology.)

[ranchwest]

Yes, the interview is in the attachment (as it appears on the screen that comes up when you click on the link that I posted, and then scroll down). (The link that I posted is the direct link to the interview, as it was contained in the first post of the thread. It was not a link to the thread itself. Sorry that I was imprecise in my terminology.)

No, no problem with your post. My smart phone wasn't so smart and didn't pull up the page. Now that I'm home, I've read it. Thanks.

[Capper Al]

Here's that thread:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=3837

Thanks to PA for posting the interview. Danny was a good sport giving me( an unknown racing fan) this interview. He will surely be missed by many.

Capper Al

[nalley0710]

This is why I keep a huge library of almost everything written on handicapping. I have this book but have not read it yet. Now I am very intrigued and plan on reading it. His ideas on route races are very interesting.

[wes]

http://www.petalumavalleyrotary.org/viewpoints/20070801/newsletter_20070801.html


Drop down to the lower part of the site for Danny Holmes.

wes

[Robert Goren]

How much difference is there between 1990 version and 2003 version of the books? I noticed that there is quite difference price when you try to buy it used. The 90 can be gotten for $20, but 2003 will set you back $100.

[GameTheory]

I have the older version. The ABC betting system is not in there, but I wouldn't really recommend it anyway. I think the main handicapping concepts are the same, but Danny said that the newer book had more clarity. I think an experienced handicapper would be fine with the old version just to absorb the ideas as I doubt you're going to follow them religiously anyway...