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Valuist
11-01-2005, 10:41 AM
Juvenile Fillies- Folklore won as much the best, IMO. She dueled hard and actually went faster to the half and 6f than the males did. The runnerup had no excuse not capitalizing more on the pace.

Juvenile- How impressive was Stevie Wonderboy? The males went 1/5 slower to 6f but finished almost 2 full seconds faster than the Fillies. Another case where the winner was much the best.

FM Turf- Soft pace and wide draw compromised Ouija Board. I questioned her readiness but she ran a winning race. A solid race from 3rd place finisher Film Maker.

Sprint- I don't know if Silver Train should've been DQ'd or not but the trouble definitely cost Taste of Paradise the race. Still, I don't think it was ST's fault as much as TOP just being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Lost in the Fog's race wasn't bad, battling wide after a break that wasn't great but I didn't think there was that much speed in the race; certainly not for a BC Sprint race. There's also a case to be made that the outer part of the track was the place to be. It certainly didn't hurt to be a few paths off the rail.

Mile- Tough trip for Leroidesanimaux. Wide throughout and battling a solid pace all the way, he was narrowly beaten. Gorella had some traffic issues in the stretch, but the pace and ground saving trip did work in her favor. Like Ouija Board, Leroid was probably best.

Distaff- the most baffling of them all. The only case I can make for Pleasant Home is that she closed wide against a lone speed/soft pace in her last at Keeneland. Still she needed a pace meltdown (not unforeseen) but needed some closers and stalkers (like Happy Ticket) to not show up. She got her "Perfect Storm".

Turf- One noted journalist mentioned that the Euros might be overbet because Ace ran lousy in his US bow. Maybe he forgot Powerscourt blowing away all the top US grassers in August at Arlington. Still, I didn't necessarily think Shirrocco was the top of the Euros. Pace was not on the fast side which benefitted him.

Classic- Saint Liam was better than the winning margin indicated, overcoming a wide post and a soft pace by Flower Alley. Too bad we won't see Liam run anymore.

cj
11-01-2005, 10:55 AM
These are the pace / speed figures I come up with for the BC races, pace figure of the leader. (No pace for 1 1/4 turf race as they ran on the outer, something they haven't done in a long time, if ever, for that distance.)

Juvenile Fillies:
108 - 85

Juvenile:
105 - 106

Filly Mare Turf:
? - 106

Sprint:
116 - 111

Mile:
118 - 109

Distaff:
107 - 103

Turf:
118 - 116

Classic:
109 - 114

SilverSow
11-01-2005, 11:35 AM
These are the pace / speed figures I come up with for the BC races, pace figure of the leader. (No pace for 1 1/4 turf race as they ran on the outer, something they haven't done in a long time, if ever, for that distance.)

Filly Mare Turf:
? - 106



CJ,

You sure of that? I remember the program saying the F&M Turf was gonna run on the inner track, with the Mile & the Turf running on the Widener... I must be getting old... hell, I was THERE and can place the race on a particular course!

Dave

cj
11-01-2005, 11:41 AM
I was going by BRIS charts, looks like DRF has it as on the inner, so I'll fix it.

I'd check Equibase, but I don't feel like dealing with PDF now!

Thanks!

cj
11-01-2005, 12:02 PM
Thanks for the heads up, changes things a bit.

Filly Mare Turf:
112- 101

SilverSow
11-01-2005, 12:30 PM
CJ,

You sure of that? I remember the program saying the F&M Turf was gonna run on the inner track, with the Mile & the Turf running on the Widener... I must be getting old... hell, I was THERE and can place the race on a particular course!

Dave

This was supposed to say "CAN'T place the race on a particular course..." sigh.. I AM getting old... and only hit 3 small exactas there all day too... blasted bombs kept hitting in the middle of all my combinations... and NONE of them were MY bombs! LOL

Glad to have helped! Guess I'm not TOTALLY useless yet - I can figure out people's contest bets and say where the races were run... just pick like crap... LOL

Dave

delayjf
11-01-2005, 12:35 PM
I know a lot has been said about LITF and why he lost in the BC. IMHP he was on the down side of his form cycle, but it may have been hidden by his big beyer in his last race, one earned with a very soft pace figure - Very simular to the race he ran at Calder. I realize this is hardly objective, but my impression of LITF after his Saratoga win was that he was one tired horse, even Baze made the same comment. But, I would have expected the bounce in his next start at BM instead he got a soft pace and finished strongly which may have hidden his declining form.

I didn't bet the race but instead rooted for LITF, and I'm glad I didn't as I would have taken TOP and would have been sick. ST had earned almost identical pace/speed figures (CJ's) as TOP in his last race. Their late pace figures were identical. BUT his numbers had come from a route race, TOP's came from a sprint. I reasoned that TOP actual velocities was higher, not being a big believer in distance equalization. I think I was right at least morally, but wrong in the outcome. In horse racing moral victories suck.

Once again, it's bombs away in the distaff. I'm glad they made it a part of the pick six finally. Had they done that in 02 (SPAIN 50-1) and 03 (Adoration 40-1), good chance nobody would have had the P6.

Valuist
11-01-2005, 12:57 PM
But being a 3YO, Silver Train still had possible upside. Taste of Paradise, as either a 5YO or 6YO was coming off a lifetime top and while he could've paired it up (which he did) it wasn't likely he was going to go forward very much. Both ST and TOP clearly love Belmont.

delayjf
11-01-2005, 03:03 PM
But being a 3YO, Silver Train still had possible upside. Taste of Paradise, as either a 5YO or 6YO was coming off a lifetime top and while he could've paired it up (which he

Your right, but I had noticed that TOP had shown more pace ability in previous races. I guess I got hooked up on that. Glad I didn't bet.

Tom
11-02-2005, 12:21 AM
I was on TOP, and thought I had it.....DOH!

But I am glad I bet my 1 unit win 3 units place stategy - nice place pyayoffs in a couple of races that made it a good day.

toetoe
11-02-2005, 05:46 PM
Pleasant Home reminds me of Volponi. She beat a possibly overrated, overraced field that made her race look better than it was a la Volponi. Maybe?