Stop blaming the juice

[Geekyguy]

I hear a lot of folks here lamenting the "juice" trainers and how they can't be handicapped, and are to blame for their losses. Supposedly, these players would win if only the sport were honest. Woe is they.

In a word: bull.

First off, we don't know who has juice and who doesn't. We do know that trainers who win over 25 percent of the time are suspect because historically that hasn't been possible, but even then we don't know if it's juice or not. I do know that there is a place in Central PA that applies Olympic training principles to horses, even calibrating their body type and muscle distribution to tell you what it should be capable of (they can do this with olympic track runners). They also have the horse run on a treadmill (only recently has there been one that can take a horse going 45 mph on it), and use computers to see how efficient and powerful the stride is. When a horse doesn't measure up to its potential, the vets dig deep and fix the problem. This is one reason layoff horses win more these days; a lot more is done during the layoff.

Now, back to the juice. The problem isn't that these guys use juice, but rather that the public isn't properly analying trainer behavior. If these guys always use the juice, then their behavior is just as consistent as those who do not, and it's just a matter of predicting that behavior not perfectly, but better than the public. I do know that in a world where horses are claimed from 30-percent barns into 5-percent barns, the public often sends these horses off at 9-5 or whatever and they make great throwouts. Even the "juicers" lose 70 percent of the time, often at low odds, so there is another opportunity, and so forth.

How can we blame juice when we don't even know who has it? The whole "juice" issue is really a legal one, not a handicapping one, since juice (or the lack of it) is but one of many factors that go into the equation. If a barn can move a horse up fast, can't be claimed from, and their horses tend to fall apart after several wins, we can handicap this, because it's not like their behavior changes much over time. We even have ROI numbers in the Form to tell us how much value is built into this, so what's the problem?

The problem is most horseplayers are stupid, and nowhere near the handicappers they think they are. They remember their home runs but forget their strikeouts, and aren't very good long-term statisticians. One need not even keep detailed records to keep "stats" on your betting, as your pocket tends to make noise all the same. Some people don't even pay attention to whether or not their cash in pocket goes up or down more when they bet; it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that either.

[PaceAdvantage]

I doubt anyone is claiming they'd turn from a loser into a winner if the sport were "honest." It would certainly level the playing a field though, don't you think? More of a fighting chance.....

[Geekyguy]

I doubt anyone is claiming they'd turn from a loser into a winner if the sport were "honest." It would certainly level the playing a field though, don't you think? More of a fighting chance.....

To do what? Lose more pleasantly?

[PaceAdvantage]

To do what? Lose more pleasantly?

No, to have more of a CHANCE to become a winning or break even player. I thought that was fairly obvious....one less obstacle to overcome....get it?

[Valuist]

Geeky-

Who says it can't be handicapped? After years, even decades of following some of these trainers, I'd probably prefer the status quo strictly as a bettor. Is that better for the game? Of course not. But that (drugs) can definitely be factored into the equation.

[twindouble]

Geekyguy; I'll tell you what the problem is, first PA is right. When a freaking 7yo inproves 12 legnths over his life time record on a fair track and you bet $500 to win on the second horse at 6-1, if that don't sink your gut, nothing will. That's not taking into concideration the other horseman that entered the race doing what's right and don't tell me they don't exist. Don't tell me the vets finely after 7 years corrected an ailment, because after the fact the horse never ran back to that effort or come close for that matter.

As a handicapper we rely on the past performances and handicapping the trainers is part of the job. Sure I've singled out trainers that threw some crap at me, so I included them in my handicapping goes with the game. That don't make it right in my opinion. Drugs dominate our society today, it's a far cry from what it used to be. The biggest challenge the industry has is to offer an honest game, without that it's down hill.


Good luck,

T.D.

[Fastracehorse]

Geeky-

Who says it can't be handicapped? After years, even decades of following some of these trainers, I'd probably prefer the status quo strictly as a bettor. Is that better for the game? Of course not. But that (drugs) can definitely be factored into the equation.

I agree. It is a fundamental part of my handicapping. Low percentage trainers cheat as well.

I adjust my speed figures for juice - based on my juice theories.

fffastt

[midnight]

I know for a fact that it's happening, because I've been told in advance that horses that look like crap on paper are going to do well, reason being "the trainer is giving them more vitamins." (the guy isn't going to say the horse is drugged).

There's no place for it, and it's sucking up a lot of the money put through the mutuels. I realize that drugging has always been a part of the game, but that doesn't make it right, and the highest percentage trainers shouldn't be the ones who keep up with the latest in pharmacology. It's tough enough to get potential fans interested in horse racing, without the stigma of drugs hanging over the industry and keeping new players away.

[Geekyguy]

Geekyguy; I'll tell you what the problem is, first PA is right. When a freaking 7yo inproves 12 legnths over his life time record on a fair track and you bet $500 to win on the second horse at 6-1, if that don't sink your gut, nothing will.

What sinks YOUR gut pays MY rent.

Why would you bet $500 on one horse anyway? You also know this stuff is out there so it's not like you don't have warning. If it's a low-percentage guy doing it you'll get stung occasionally (why to bet a small amount on a lot of races), and if it's a high-percentage or high ROI guy doing it, you should have that factored in.

I doubt very many players who lose now would win if juice didn't exist. All it would do is change the result data, and the sharpies would adjust, stay ahead of the public, and not miss a step.

My research indicates that despite what people think, most races run to form. Most people just don't know how to predict future performance based on that form, and I thank God that they continue to load money into the pools as much as they do. The thought of having to get a real job would be very, very scary.

[twindouble]

What sinks YOUR gut pays MY rent.

Why would you bet $500 on one horse anyway? You also know this stuff is out there so it's not like you don't have warning. If it's a low-percentage guy doing it you'll get stung occasionally (why to bet a small amount on a lot of races), and if it's a high-percentage or high ROI guy doing it, you should have that factored in.

I doubt very many players who lose now would win if juice didn't exist. All it would do is change the result data, and the sharpies would adjust, stay ahead of the public, and not miss a step.

My research indicates that despite what people think, most races run to form. Most people just don't know how to predict future performance based on that form, and I thank God that they continue to load money into the pools as much as they do. The thought of having to get a real job would be very, very scary.

First off, I don't compete with you or anyone else, there's enough compitition on the track, second I've been handicapping the theives for 45 years now it's always been part of my handicapping. Third, I've stated here I believe the majority of races are run honest, otherwise I would have been long gone. Forth the point was, regardless of how you cut it, cheating is wrong and bad for the game, simple as that, so stay sharp. Anyone who doesn't miss a step in this game is God. Now tell me something I don't know. :bang: Other than how big your bankroll is.

[twindouble]

Geekguy; Further more. :D I ran out of ink! Got a little grumpy.

Your question was, "why would I bet $500 on a horse?" Why wouldn't I? are you suggesting that I bet $2.00 on a horse I like a lot to win with value? That's a key horse to me and could be a part of other wagers as well, picks, DD tri's or supers.


Good luck,

T.D.

[4Jayman]

I agree with everybody here. As a handicapper we must be watching for trainers who "get the run out of them". As a handicapper I dont care how they do it I just make sure I know who I better give a second look at. As a Horseman and a lifelong fan of the game I want to see the integrity of the sport in tact. I hate it when I see how several of the big win % trainers treat their stock and owners. I could go on for many pages about the crap Ive seen growing up in this game but I could also go on and on about reputable people who have sucess as well.

As few as 10 years ago I would have said there is not a drug that will turn a basement claimer into a stakes winner. There are only drugs that can do the reverse. However I damn sure wouldnt say that today. I have actually seen the basement claimer get claimed and come back to win a stakes next out. Worse than that the SOB paid $5.80. This horse was claimed off of a trainer friend of mine in a state bred 7500n3l by the biggest scourge on New Mexico racing. Ramon Gonzales. The horse was well beaten that day. The 1st out for Ramon was a state bred stakes and he won by the length of the grandstand. As I said this horse belonged to a trainer friend who does a nice job. He is a 15% trainer and works his ass off to achieve that sucess. Needless to say my friend doesnt appreciate looking like a fool. About a month later Ramon sent this horse out in a statebred clm 10000. My friend and his owner were determined to get this horse back and draw blood to see what in the hell Ramon was running on. There were several claims in for the horse and most of them were tied to my friend one way or another. The horse won the race easy and when he got back from the test barn the vet drew blood and sent it of to UC davis. The test came back positive for a high blood pressure medication known as Guana Bans. This stuff will make a horse run through his skin and several trainers on the big circuts (SA HOL etc) had gotten in trouble for it years ago. This information was presented to the NM racing commission and Ramon was ruled off the track for 2yrs for another incident involving Naproxin. So Ramon started running his horses under his brother Jose name until he was busted and now the Ramon horses run under a the Name Janice Dunivan. Neither Janice or Jose had ever been above a 7% trainer until now.

I tell this story to give you some insight to the games on the backside. The racing commissions never seem to crack down hard enough and scum bags like Ramon are going to find a way to get in the game. So as handicappers keep an eye open for these guys at all times. As a horseman keep you stock away from these guys. As fans of the sport demand strict enforcement and harsher punishment by you local racing commission.

[twindouble]

Jayman;

That was interesting and clear, thanks. What I can say, Geekyguy reminded me of something that ran through my mind when they anounced the crack down on drugs, my first thought was if they are effective how would it effect my handicappping realitive to the past performances, have to admit that had me concernded somewhat. As a matter of fact I posted that on another forum. I settled in thinking it would all wash out or the cheats will come up with something new like always. What has worked for me is not to get paranoid about cheating and what goes on with the barns. To many negitive thoughts will put you under in this game.


Good luck,

T.D.

[Valuist]

Let's say you're at the track and you figure Horse A to be 10-1 and the linemaker agrees and also has the horse at 10-1. The betting opens and, wham, horse A is 6-5. His odds start to drift up a little and the horse looks sensational in the post parade. Nothing on paper would have you believe the horse should be 6-5. In his last race, several horses who finished in front of him last time are taking less $$ in the betting. The horse finally goes off at 5-1; not the chalk but far lower than what one was expecting and the horse blows the field away.

Sound familiar? This scenario happens almost every day and it doesn't have to be a 30% or big name trainer. Was the horse drugged? Who knows? Did they tap a knee? You can deny all you want but these kind of "live underlays" win more than their fair share of races. The two tipoffs: heavy betting action, especially early, and a excellent appearance on the track.

[4Jayman]

Well said Twin Double!

[twindouble]

Well said Twin Double!


Thanks Jayman, sometimes I feel like I'm just torturing people here with my old hat posts. I apperciate your responce so I'll carry on. :)

[linrom1]

Unbelievable that so many respond to a troll. All we need is a new classifiacation in the PPs, (J) for juice in equipment and medication fields and everything is going to be ok. :D

[alysheba88]

How come every juice apologists feels the obsessive need to say that anyone who wants to see a cleaner game is a "loser" looking to blame others for losing? Have yet to see one of the apologists say anything different.

As others have pointed out, one can handicap and profit from the juice. Has nothing to do with winning and losing and everything to do with having a fairer game and doing right by the horses.

Any attempt at cleaning up the game is met with a "don't play then". Wish there could be at least an attempt at intelligent discussion on this