Bris Bets $93312 Players pool pick Six Ticket Crashes And Burns

[highabove]

Filly and Mare 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 11 13
Sprint 1 5 6 7
Mile 1 2 3 6 7 8 9 10 11
Distaff 2 3 7 10 11 12
Turf 2 3 5 6 7 9
Classic 4 8 11 13

$93312 4 of 6

Misses Filly Turf Intercontinental
Sprint Silver Train

I know its easy to criticize after the fact but even an amateur capper like me armed with the cjs could spot goofs in this monster ticket before the fact. It was hard to believe the so called dream team would leave off Intercontinental going nine deep. Had speed and pace figs to compete. 2nd highest CJ fig last race out. Distance a question. Im sure he was not the top of every ones list but when you go nine deep? Cannot blame any one for not having Silver Train. Some could say Taste Of Paradise was screwed by the stewards. The Clasisic did not come into play but was surprised Flower Alley was left off such a large ticket. Suave was included. Good pace figs would show Suave did not have the speed to stay in front of these. I guess the moral is if you dont like the work of the so called experts Do it yourself.
Was fun to go on a monster ticket till the start of the first leg. Did Hedge on Intercontinental. I guess This is a victory for the small player. These Player pools up the road could ruin the pick 6 for the average player.

[toetoe]

Agree about Intercontinental, but kudos for the MacGaughey filly in the Distaff. Wow, the non-DQ cost them almost $90,000, I guess. Almost enough to break even. Maybe they should bang a few combos extra times, cuz you can't expect much more than $100,000, can you? That's just so much dough, they're running over themselves.

[Blackgold]

I don't understand why these "professionals" put in large tickets, instead of the A/B/A stuff illustrated in B. Meadow's excellent book, "Money Secrets At The Racetrack."

[Valuist]

How could they have missed Silver Train? I'm not saying he should've been a single but if you're going to go 4 deep, why not use a Dutrow 3YO who already ran a 1:07 and change over the track?

[garyoz]

Agreed, it is an amateur structure for a serial ticket. Really not even amateur because they don't really try a structure. Maybe Bris makes them keep it simple? There are ticket structuring applications available for a minimal cost, you don't even have to do the hard work, a couple clicks of the mouse.

Group think also provides a problem in horse selection. End up having to cover the obvious. They may be better off with one handicapper pulling the trigger.

[BetHorses!]

They should carry the pick six pool over to next year so I can hit it then :D

[skate]

high high;


the last i recall (i think it was bris) they also thru out the top early, as they appear to have done again, only last time it was the only miss they had. geess.
that was like, 6 bmos back.

now you're saying they missed they're top early and they're top overall (speed), that's from Bris/TSN figures. in the third.

mercy mercy

[toetoe]

Here's hoping they did it for ONE dollar.

[chickenhead]

I got a phone call last night, a capper in my hometown, someone who is widely considered a windbag know nothing, had 5 of 6 NINE times. $810K. It was a single ticket as well, I believe he went 9 deep in the first and missed, and had all the rest. He could not have gone very deep in the other legs, singles and doubles.

Broken clocks and all that I guess.

[shanta]

Group think also provides a problem in horse selection. End up having to cover the obvious. They may be better off with one handicapper pulling the trigger.

I agree about group thinking being a real problem Gary. When Doc Sartin was active he would tell me on the phone to seperate from EVERYONE I knew when it was time to wager. He said while there might be safety in numbers there wasn't any MONEY in it.

Richie

[Light]

The fact that they felt the need to put $93k worth of horses in the p6 should tell you that they had no clue who the winners would be, suck at handicapping,and had a good chance of not hitting.

As far as Intercontinental,I guess those guys are not pace cappers. This horse had the top E2 fig in the field and was 4th best when combining her E2+Lp overall fig meaning she's not going to lay down in the stretch.

[midnight]

I don't see how they could leave Society Selection or Flower Alley off the ticket.

They appear to have used the "If they're from Europe, put them in" strategy, which left them with several "no chance" horses which were sent over by wealthy unrealistic owners. I admit that some of those "no-chances" do win, but I'd rather have proven horses here over horses who haven't shown much across the pond.

Our group put together a $648 ticket (two deuces, three treys) without Lost in the Fog or Shakespeare, on it, and we had 4/6 and would have had 5/6 if Taste of Paradise had won the Sprint (e.g. not been pinched off by the winner). Of course, we didn't have Pleasant Home.

[highabove]

The non DQ of Silver Train cost the ticket over $700000. But there was absolutely no excuse for the so called experts to leave Interconinental off the ticket when going nine deep. You would think these experts would do more then just looking at the Beyers in the form.

[the little guy]

Just curious...how many Pick-6s, and what did they pay, have all the posters in this thread hit?

[highabove]

If some of these guys had $93000 to play with I think we would've had a few hits.

[Valuist]

Highabove-

You beat me to it. Agreed 100%

[toetoe]

Of course, they would have multiple 5's, 8 of 'em, I guess. Also, Barry Meadow did not invent the split ticket, but he was wise enough to publish it; and it's the sine-qua-non of a serial-bet killer.

tlg,
I'm glad you asked. I hit ONE pick-six in SoCal for under $1,000. But let me tell you about Oct. 2, 1998. We played a 3x2x2x2x2x1 ticket, $96, and the two we left off in the first leg, Nelly's Crown and Picante Pequeno, ran first and second. Plenty of fours to go with our three fives, but the six that no one hit would be $61,000. Bay Meadows Friday night with a carryover of 2 or 3 days, it was perfect.

I'd like to hear of your pick-six exploits, le petit guy.

[garyoz]

Just curious...how many Pick-6s, and what did they pay, have all the posters in this thread hit?


I don't see any posters claiming to be part of a "team of all star handicappers." Not to mention the bankroll of $90k-plus in a single pick-6. If these guys had hit, the Bris marketing machine would have been insufferable. You live by the sword, you die by it....

[the little guy]

I really don't play the Pick-6 that often ( I probably am involved in it less than 30 times a year ) but I do know enough about playing it to laugh at these Monday morning quarterbacks who are selectively picking apart someone else's play. I can guarantee none of these people would have hit it on Saturday for under $100,000.

I hit it for $156K back in February, by the way, though I have only hit it once for six figures prior to that.

[garyoz]

hey little guy....I'm glad that you can guarantee what I did and didn't pick...I had thought you were an ok guy around the NYRA scene, but you sure are sounding arrogant....

[twindouble]

If some of these guys had $93000 to play with I think we would've had a few hits.

When I figured what I needed to hit the pick 6, it came to $8,192.00, that's out of my league even with a partner. I passed. Not only that, I didn't have Pleasent Home in any of my plays including my gimmick plays.

Speaking of the gimmicks, I told my partner early on Intercontinental could steal the race, like a dummy I use him just for second, third and forth.

Then to top it off, I did what I thought was a smart move by keying wheeling LITF. Didn't hit the board. :eek:

Then I got Aced in the 9th and didn't smell the Flowers in the Classic, just a wiff for 3rd and 4th.

Lost every race I bet but had a handle on the contenders. That's good for me for not being big on those races. Back to where I belong, Mountaineer.:cool:

T.D.

[the little guy]

What I consider reality you consider arrogance.

I just happen to find the constant picking apart of plays after races, a specialty of internet posters, to be boorish.

[DrugSalvastore]

I took a stab at it with a $96 ticket and ended up with just 3 of 6.

I'm pretty sure, if I had a nearly 100K ticket to work with, I would have had Silver Train and Pleasant Home on my ticket. No way on earth, would I have used Shirocco though. So, 5 of 6 would have been best case scenario for me, with that kind of money....

I can really see people being critical and knocking them if they went 2-for-6 or less...but, that was a very difficult P6. It's kind of petty to knock them for not having five...in my opinion.

[garyoz]

What I consider reality you consider arrogance.



To quote the Beach Boys--reality is not for me it makes me laugh--and the fact is a group of supposed all stars supported by a company that is prone to hyping itself put together a public pool and structured a stupid ticket....Such a public activity opens the process up to public scrutiny and public discussion.

What one may consider Monday Morning Quarterbacking another may consider critical analysis. Sort of empiricism, we learn from the mistakes of others.

And this discussion is getting boring...

[Valuist]

I think Pleasant Home was by far the toughest use. Granted, the race looked a bit chaotic with a decent amount of front runners. But even in a pace collapsing scenario, I wouldn't have envisioned what she did. She blew up my Pic 3 tickets, and I had tossed Ashado.

[highabove]

In most cases I agree with the sunday mourning quarterback thing. But when capping with other peoples money and toute great credentials you leave yourself open to comment. Could I have done better myself? Probably not. But I dont have the credentials those guys do. Hall of fame capper multable tourment winner fifty plus picksix hits ect. I would not take the job of capping with other peoples money. My problem is not with the lossing ticket. Its cappers with those credentals missing basic stuff. Go to Cjs site and pull up the 5th. Some one tell me Intercontinental is the 10th best horse.
While your there take a look at flip flop which was on the ticket. Never broke a pf of 100. tell me that horse can beat these. Thats what I was looking at before the fith. I dont expect these guys to be using Cjs figs but I expect them to have the skill to see the obvious.Oratorio and Suave on the ticket. Flower Alley off. Any good pace fig would show Suave did not have the speed to front these. Oratorio bred top and bottom for grass. My point is if you collect $93000 of other peoples money and toute three great handicappers they better not make basic mistakes. If the ticket lost with Silver train and (Pleasant Home which they did have)I would have had no problem. Some could say thats what you get for depending on others. lesson learned.

[Steve 'StatMan']

The kicker is that the entire Pick 6 Pool was about $4.5 million, so after 25% takeout, there was about $3.125 Million available to a single winner. A $93,000 ticket is on the sole winner would only have returned about 33/1, and everyone would get taxed on the winnings. But betting and hitting a single 33/1 shot oneself would not require the IRS paperwork, and be relatively independent of the other bettors (knowing the that odds in a big pool won't fluctuate too wildly at the last minute on BC Day). For $93,000, perhaps (yes, in hindsight) they might have been better off betting a few grand on several decent longshots throughout the card instead, or maybe different exotic wagers.

I guess it's partially comforting to have confirmed (we all pretty much know)that the BC Pick 6 is generally too deep to 'buy it out', as well as realizing the best Grand Prize payoff the BC Pick 6 offers is not likely worth betting what a normally really nice Pic 6 would pay itself, just to 'hit it'. Although, admittedly, the fame and bragging rights might still be tempting.

I've only hit 2 pick-6's so far in my life ($1,800-ish & $900-ish) but fortunately relatively small tickets (and yes, less than a 33/1 return on those small investments). Argravatingly close with some 5's, keeps me thinking about it and trying in periodically.

[Steve 'StatMan']

For what it's worth, the did hit the last 4 races, so that would have given them the last Pick 4, and the last two Rolling Pick 3's.

The last Pick 4 pool was $2.2M, about half of the featured Pick 6 pool. It paide $17,303. Using the same horses they used in the Pick 6, it would have cost (9x6x6x4) x $2 = $2,592 to bet that ticket, for a return just under 6/1.

Of the 6 horses they used in Race 8, they did have the $63.50 winner.

The Pick 3's on Races 7-9 they'd have hit paid $4,280 from a pool of $670k. Going (9x6x6) x $2 would have cost $648, for a return of around 6/1, even while using a $63.50 winner.

The last Pick 3, on Races 8-10, paid $2,045 from a pool of $1.4 Million. Going (6x6x4) x $2 would have cost $212, returning not quite 9/1. But still that included using a $63.50 winner.

Whole lot of ifs, and likely there was an interest, maybe differrent selections, fewer combos and more money on some combos than others would perk up those mulit-exotics better, if they'd use them this time.

Of course, over those 6 races, their ticket and the results were:

Race 5: 9 Combos - Lost
Race 6: 9 Combos - Lost
Race 7: 9 Combos - Won
Race 8: 6 Combos - Won
Race 9: 6 Combos - Won
Race 10: 4 Combos - Won.

Had the races been run in a different order, and the results went WWLWWL instead, they might not even have been able to cash in the P3, P4 & Late DD.

Face it, mulit-race exotics are mighty cool, but can also be mighty cruel.

[twindouble]

Statman; I agree. What we could do is, give every handicapper here 10 grand, (fun money) and let them attack the pick 6 when there's sizable carryovers like a hundred grand or more. We could also split the group in two and give them five grand to them and see who fairs better or another group with just a grand. Having three partners our investment norm runs under a thousand. Success would be measured on ROI.

I've done the above before for myself, allways had listed who I thought the contenders were prior and then figured out what it would have taken if I lost by virture of not covering all I thought had a shot and seeing if my key horses could have been used better. Plus when I was fortunate enough to win, evaluating the play overall to see if I could have invested less and accomplished the same thing.

There's no question by putting in more, I would have hit more often, that's why I partnered up years ago. That's why I say, when it comes to gambling you have to assess the risk and wager accordingly even it means sharing the risk. The face that passed on the B.C. pick 6 for me and my partner it was the right decision based on our bankroll but I still went back and to see what I over looked and yes we kicked it around like what's going on here. That isn't a negitive thing to do in my opinion.

I was just wondering if anyone can give me good resons why Pleasent Home should have been bet or used. I'm not taking someone who just mentioned the horse but bet the sucker or used him in the gimmicks. Then I'll go back and look again.

Good luck,

T.D.