Breeders' Cup Fair-Odds Lines

[Overlay]

Juvenile Fillies:

Wild Fit 3-1 (Morning Line 6-1)
Knights Templar 5-1 (ML 12-1)
Adieu 5-1 (ML 3-1)
Folklore 6-1 (ML 5-2)
She Says It Best 10-1 (ML 15-1)
Diamond Omi 12-1 (ML 12-1)
Sensation 20-1 (ML 8-1)
Along the Sea 20-1 (ML 20-1)
Original Spin 23-1 (ML 6-1)
Ex Caelis 38-1 (ML 15-1)


Juvenile:

First Samurai 6-5 (ML 8-5)
Henny Hughes 7-2 (ML 5-1)
Dawn of War 13-1 (ML 20-1)
Superfly 24-1 (ML 30-1)
Private Vow 28-1 (ML 8-1)
Ivan Denisovich 31-1 (ML 12-1)
Brother Derek 36-1 (ML 20-1)
Sorcerer’s Stone 40-1 (ML 12-1)
Stevie Wonderboy 41-1 (ML 8-1)
Jealous Profit 42-1 (ML 50-1)
Set Alight 46-1 (ML 20-1)
Stream Cat 47-1 (ML 30-1)
Dr. Pleasure 57-1 (ML 20-1)
Leo 78-1 (ML 20-1)


Filly and Mare Turf:

Wonder Again 5-1 (ML 8-1)
Karen’s Caper 5-1 (ML 15-1)
Luas Line 7-1 (ML 15-1)
Mona Lisa 8-1 (ML 15-1)
Megahertz 10-1 (ML 5-1)
Intercontinental 11-1 (ML 8-1)
Riskaverse 13-1 (ML 15-1)
Ouija Board 20-1 (ML 5-2)
Film Maker 22-1 (ML 12-1)
Flip Flop 27-1 (ML 20-1)
Wend 29-1 (ML 10-1)
Favourable Terms 57-1 (ML 20-1)
Angara 57-1 (ML 20-1)
Sundrop 72-1 (ML 30-1)


Sprint

Lost in the Fog 6-5 (ML 1-1)
Wildcat Heir 6-1 (ML 10-1)
Battle Won 9-1 (ML 10-1)
Silver Train 13-1 (ML 8-1)
Taste of Paradise 13-1 (ML 12-1)
Elusive Jazz 15-1 (ML 12-1)
Lion Tamer 26-1 (ML 12-1)
Lifestyle 35-1 (ML 30-1)
Imperialism 39-1 (ML 15-1)
Gygistar 69-1 (ML 12-1)
Attila’s Storm 75-1 (ML 30-1)


Mile

Leroidesanimaux 8-5 (ML 7-5)
Artie Schiller 6-1 (ML 6-1)
Sand Springs 7-1 (ML 20-1)
Singletary 13-1 (ML 8-1)
Limehouse 17-1 (ML 20-1)
Valixir 17-1 (ML 10-1)
Whipper 17-1 (ML 12-1)
Funfair 18-1 (ML 12-1)
Host 24-1 (ML 12-1)
Gorella 31-1 (ML 20-1)
Majors Cast 37-1 (ML 15-1)
Ad Valorem 60-1 (ML 20-1)


Distaff

Ashado 9-5 (ML 2-1)
Healthy Addiction 3-1 (ML 10-1)
Happy Ticket 10-1 (ML 6-1)
Yolanda B. Too 19-1 (ML 30-1)
Island Fashion 23-1 (ML 12-1)
Stellar Jayne 24-1 (ML 5-1)
Society Selection 25-1 (ML 8-1)
Nothing But Fun 28-1 (ML 30-1)
Sweet Symphony 30-1 (ML 8-1)
Capeside Lady 33-1 (ML 30-1)
Pleasant Home 42-1 (ML 20-1)
Hollywood Story 45-1 (ML 20-1)
In the Gold 48-1 (ML 20-1)


Turf

Shakespeare 5-1 (ML 3-1)
Bago 5-1 (ML 5-1)
English Channel 6-1 (ML 10-1)
Azamour 7-1 (ML 7-2)
Ace 8-1 (ML 12-1)
Gun Salute 10-1 (ML 20-1)
Leprechaun Kid 17-1 (ML 20-1)
Shirocco 20-1 (ML 20-1)
Better Talk Now 23-1 (ML 8-1)
Laura’s Lucky Boy 27-1 (ML 20-1)
Fourty Niners Son 27-1 (ML 15-1)
Shake the Bank 60-1 (ML 99-1)
Silverfoot 60-1 (ML 30-1)


Classic

Saint Liam 5-2 (ML 3-1)
Borrego 5-1 (ML 9-2)
Rock Hard Ten 8-1 (ML 7-2)
Oratorio 9-1 (ML 10-1)
Suave 15-1 (ML 20-1)
A Bit O’Gold 18-1 (ML 30-1)
Flower Alley 18-1 (ML 10-1)
Super Frolic 20-1 (ML 30-1)
Choctaw Nation 22-1 (ML 15-1)
Sun King 24-1 (ML 30-1)
Starcraft 32-1 (ML 12-1)
Perfect Drift 41-1 (ML 12-1)
Jack Sullivan 56-1 (ML 50-1)
Sir Shackleton 58-1 (ML 20-1)

[ryesteve]

I'll take Ouija Board at 20-1... thanks :)

[Valuist]

There's not enough takeout. I just added up the Juvie Fillies and Classic and only got 105-106.

[midnight]

Another possibility is to use a true odds line at 100%. The people using it should know enough to look for overlays anyhow.

[xfile]

Classic

Saint Liam 5-2 (ML 3-1)
Borrego 5-1 (ML 9-2)
Rock Hard Ten 8-1 (ML 7-2)
Oratorio 9-1 (ML 10-1)
Suave 15-1 (ML 20-1)
A Bit O’Gold 18-1 (ML 30-1)
Flower Alley 18-1 (ML 10-1)
Super Frolic 20-1 (ML 30-1)
Choctaw Nation 22-1 (ML 15-1)
Sun King 24-1 (ML 30-1)
Starcraft 32-1 (ML 12-1)
Perfect Drift 41-1 (ML 12-1)
Jack Sullivan 56-1 (ML 50-1)
Sir Shackleton 58-1 (ML 20-1)


Sir S at 58-1??? Can you book this bet? Lol...SS wins for fun.:cool:

[Overlay]

Another possibility is to use a true odds line at 100%. The people using it should know enough to look for overlays anyhow.

You're absolutely right. I adjust my odds line as close as possible to 100%, so that I can compare my odds directly with the toteboard's. Since the odds on the toteboard have already factored in the take, and since toteboard odds represent the minimum that a win bet will pay, a horse that is at higher odds on the toteboard than in my line will then be a true overlay for purposes of isolating and sizing my wagers.

[keilan]

Horses that you haven’t given enuff respect imo


Original Spin 23-1 (ML 6-1)
Sensation 20-1 (ML 8-1)

Sorcerer’s Stone 40-1 (ML 12-1)
Private Vow 28-1 (ML 8-1)
Dr. Pleasure 57-1 (ML 20-1)
Stevie Wonderboy 41-1 (ML 8-1)

Ouija Board 20-1 (ML 5-2)

Imperialism 39-1 (ML 15-1)
Gygistar 69-1 (ML 12-1)
Attila’s Storm 75-1 (ML 30-1)

Valixir 17-1 (ML 10-1)
Majors Cast 37-1 (ML 15-1)
Ad Valorem 60-1 (ML 20-1)

Stellar Jayne 24-1 (ML 5-1)
Sweet Symphony 30-1 (ML 8-1)
Pleasant Home 42-1 (ML 20-1)
In the Gold 48-1 (ML 20-1)

Flower Alley 18-1 (ML 10-1)
Choctaw Nation 22-1 (ML 15-1)

[Overlay]

The use of a 100% line; the incorporation of multiple factors; and the calculation of actual statistical odds (rather than putting a cap on either the high or low ends of the odds spectrum as many morning lines seem to do) tend to especially make odds on the high end seem longer than you would normally see them on any track program (except perhaps for Shake the Bank). It's not a matter of disrespecting through personal opinion. I ran them through my statistical model and that's how they came out in comparison to their competition, which is another point to consider. Against horses which were not such strong entries, the odds on the same outsiders would not be so high. As I said, there's always only 100% to divide up among the horses in any given field, and when large field sizes like the Breeders' Cup attract exceptionally strong favorites, there will always be less remaining probability to be divided up among the also-rans, making their odds higher than they would be against a smaller field or a less formidable quality of competition.

[Overlay]

Best of luck to all tomorrow, by the way.

[Overlay]

Revised fair-odds line for Classic, to reflect scratch of Rock Hard Ten:

Saint Liam 5-2
Borrego 5-1
Oratorio 10-1
Flower Alley 14-1
Suave 15-1
A Bit O' Gold 18-1
Sun King 19-1
Super Frolic 21-1
Choctaw Nation 23-1
Starcraft 33-1
Perfect Drift 42-1
Jack Sullivan 57-1
Sir Shackleton 59-1

[Overlay]

Slight additional tweaking of that revised line for the Classic, with Rock Hard Ten scratched. (Disregard the previous revised line that was contained in the post prior to this one.)

Saint Liam 5-2
Borrego 9-2
Oratorio 9-1
Flower Alley 13-1
Suave 14-1
A Bit O' Gold 16-1
Sun King 18-1
Super Frolic 19-1
Choctaw Nation 21-1
Starcraft 30-1
Perfect Drift 38-1
Jack Sullivan 51-1
Sir Shackleton 54-1

[Overlay]

In the revised line for the Classic in the last post, change the fair odds on Flower Alley from 13-1 to 12-1. (Typographical error.) All others remain the same.