GUARANTEED PICK6 SATURDAY

[pic6vic]

Does anyone play the pick6. I used to play, but stopped because of the 70-30 payout. Sometimes on these guaranteed days I will
play. Will be in Bakersfield Saturday. There will be a maiden
in the7th that made everyone's horses to watch list.

This should make it a pick 5.

Does anyone play?.

[rrbauer]

Vic:
I used to play the P6 regularly...back before carryovers, when they paid the major-pool to those with the most winners and the consolation to the 2nd-most winners. Then I would only play on weekends, holidays, when the pool was sure to top $100k (SoCal circuit).

Once the carryovers started the pools dried up until there was a carryover. Then the players came back and if there was a double carryover, it was really pounded.

Today, I play it on limited occasions. There must be a carryover (money in the pot and no tickets attached to them makes a nice premium). There must be 6-races that I'm good at handicapping. After handicapping it and putting together a trial play I have to feel good about sending in $800 to $1200 to try and hit it.

With the advent of the rolling P3's, and more recently the P4, both of which are $1 bets, I've found that I can get more mileage out of my money in those arenas than I can the P6 which can become a very capital-intensive proposition. Sure, a $30k pop is a nice piece of change, but if you're stuck $20k by the time that you hit it, the net after w/h is pretty puny.

As to the guaranteed pools. In SoCal they usually go over the guarantee amount, so there's no advantage to the player with that. If the track had to kick in a couple-hundred large to meet the guarantee, then we're back to the "money without tickets attached to it" game again, and that's a better deal.

Finally, with regard to the "single" that everyone knows about. Where's your advantage?

[pic6vic]

rrbauer

points well taken and I agree with your analysis. When we were
playing the pick6 in the late 80's, the weekend pools were 400k
and there was no carryover feature. This way when you hit 5 you got a big chunk back not just your money. We would play between 1500 and 4000 according to the card. We were successful but in those days they withheld 20% on a $1,000
payoff. There would be days where we lose money and the government would still get a piece. If you have ever read a book by Jerry Samovitz on beating the exotics, he details our success
with the pick 6. Anyway very seldom play now for the reasons you stated.

[GR1@HTR]

IMHO, the small better (me) who might put in a $300 ticket has no advantage on carryover days. Reason is that just about every combo has been covered several times. On non carry overdays, a small ball player has a chance to sweep the pool ($100K) w/ 2 to 3 double digit winners. You hit the P6 on a carry over day w/ 2 double digit winners and you might collect only $10K.

[GR1@HTR]

P6V, I played the P6 almost daily for 2-3 months 2 summers ago. I also thought the opportunities would be better for the small better on carryover days. What I found was the opposite. The reason being is that so all the syndicates and big time players come out of the woodwork and cover all "value" combos. Track the payouts on carryover days and non carryover days. Look at the payout of the win horses in those races. I think you will come to same conclusion.

[pic6vic]

GR1

I think you may have it backwards. You will see bigger tickets on
carryover days, therefore thos big tickets will only have the payoff once. This is what causes the pick6 to pay bigger on carryover days. These days i'm in the same position as you, as I will only play a few hundred on the pick 6. This is why i like to form mini syndicates with others. It still not a good bet, but I like
reaching for the sky at times. Also I very seldom single, but will use keys. If I see obvious singles I will pass. If this horse Sat
is an obvius single (as I think it will be) I will pass.

[rrbauer]

The reasons the P6 will pay bigger for 6 on carryover days:

1. There's money in the pool without tickets attached to it. Ergo, a premium! This is the single biggest reason.

2. Virtually everyone, big bettor, or small, plays way too many combinations loaded with favorites. So the more people that you have playing it (drawn in by the carryover fever) the more combinations you will get dominated by favorites. About once a year you will see a P6 dominated by winning favs. The rest of the time those combinations are losers and become part of the booty for the winning combinations.

[GR1@HTR]

I understand there is more money in the pool when there is a carryover. And yes, there is a true overlay in the pool….But my point is that a small players chances scoring a larger hit are much better on non carryover days. It is a strange phenomena that I witness playing the pic6 for almost 60 to 90 continuous days. What happens is that most of the sharp and well financed betting syndicates who plunge $10K into the P6 stay out of the non carryover days creating opportunities for skilled less financed players to take advantage of under bet combinations. Perhaps a contrary view…Monitor the total odds of all 6 winners on a carry over days non carryover day (for several sessions) and what I state above will become evident. That is all I have to say….

[David McKenzie]

//But my point is that a small players chances scoring a larger hit are much better on non carryover days.//

A one day carrover can be advantageous to the small bettor. It's usually too little of a financial reward for the syndicates to extend themselves, but there's enough money in the pool for a disproportionate payoff, even with mostly chalk, for the small guy.

[rrbauer]

With all of the non-carryover P6's becoming carryover P6's (because nobody got 6) suggests to me that the "skilled less financed" players that benefit from non-carryover pools should either get more skill; or, get more money. :)

You can make the case that because there isn't "syndicate" or "group" money going 4- and 5-deep in every race on non-carryover days that there is less competition in the pool for winning combinations with large payout potential. That seems correct to me although I don't know for sure.

But, regardless of which days you play; and, which days you don't play you need to have identified the right horses and get your tickets assembled, such that, somewhere in the mix you have a combination with 6 winners.

I know two guys from different parts of our economic spectrum. One works at a bus company for an hourly wage. The other is president of a medium-size corporation. They both have the same objective with the P6: Take down the whole pool. The bus-company guy goes to great lengths to build very intelligent P6 plays in the $100 to $200 range. He's been at it for about 15 years. The prez can afford 4-figure tickets and loves to single longshots (why he doesn't just bet the longshots to win escapes me). He's been at it for 6 or 7 years. Same objective, different approach, same result: Number of whole-pool scores. Zero!

It speaks to the elusiveness of the proposition.

[David McKenzie]

To seriously play the Pick 6 you need a bankroll of at least $100,000 dedicated solely to that investment. Hence, that wager is best left to syndicates.

If you can't resist the action, there's nothing wrong with "taking a flyer" for $16 or $20, especially on one day carryovers.

Any wager between $20 and $1,000 is an imprudent use of money. All you're really doing is subsidizing the larger investment outfits. You'd have a better chance pooling your resources with some other players. I'd rather have 1/5 of a group $1000 Pick 6 than $200 of my own tickets.

The only groups I personally know that win Pick 6's more than once or twice a year bet a lot more than $1000 when they dip into the Pick 6 pools.

[GR1@HTR]

I think we would all agree when there is a carryover, generally speaking...the more "higher Skilled" players will play the P6. Look at all the folks who say they will not play when there is not a carry over. So we can assume the following.

-->No Carrover=Most of the money in there is from Avg Players (still $100K pools in So Cal).
-->Carry over day=Most money is from the higher skilled players, guys willing to shell out $5K to $20K tickets.

If you are looking to compete and take other peoples money (paramutual game), against which competition would you have the best chance money taking from? That is part of my point...

[ranchwest]

The last time I played a P6, I played one ticket and hit the consolation. $12.30. That was several years ago. I guess I figured that if I hit 5 winners in 6 races and all I got was $12.30 then it just didn't seem like a good proposition.

[pic6vic]

The pick 6 is not for everyone, in fact it's not for most of this
board(myself included). However, tonight's pick 6 at HP. I like one horse in 5 of the pick 6 races. I will play under those circumstances. The prices are not gigantic which does not warrant straight bets. I have a few partners and we will play about $360.00 on different combinations. I feel that I will hit 3 of these keys. Therefore by playing 42 tickets I will have more coverage if my keys win. If i do not hit 3 keys I lose. I also will key
someone in the race I don't like and use plenty of alternates.

leg 1 1x1
leg 2 1x2
leg 3 1x5
leg 4 1x2
leg 5 1x3
leg 6 1x1

The cost is $334 and covers 20 horses. The first number is the key
the second is the number of alternates.

[rrbauer]

Vic
I think what you're saying is that every ticket will have 3 singles on it and those singles will be keys. Is that correct? And your ticket construction strategy will be to utilize all of the possible sets of 3-key singles along with the other horses. And, I assume that you will allow for the possibility of all 6 keys winning.

The reason for my questions is that if I build a play using that formula, identifying a key in each race, and then build tickets using all of the possible 3-key sets and up, and using the alternates in the non-key races, I get 297 possible combinations or a play of $594 using 20 tickets.

Send me an email rrbauer@directvinternet.com and I'll return the ticket file to you.

[pic6vic]

rrbauer

Not quite correct.

The way I play this ticket is what I call a miss 3 ticket.
I'll play 42 tickets to get all the combinations I want.
The first ticket will be all my key horses, I call this the main ticket.
Next I play a miss 1 which means I use all the mains except I substitute the alternates in each of the six races. To simplfy this
if I have 2 alternates in each race each of the six tickets will cost 4
dollars, and I have to hit 5 keys and any alternate.

Next I play the miss 2 where I susstitute 2 races with the keys,
in other words I'll substitute leg 1&2 leg1&3 leg1&4 leg1&5 leg1&6. Then leg2&3 leg2&4 leg2&5 leg2&6.Then leg3&4 leg3&5
leg3&6. Then leg4&5 leg4&6 leg5&6. There are 15 tickets ithis sequence. Thats 1 plus 6 plus 15 or 22tickets so far. Then I sustitute 3 legs with the mains this is 20 tickets. there are 167 combinations and at lest any 3 mains must win and of course you must have the alternates also win.

There are many variations we used to play. If I increase the main ticket I then play only a miss 2 or miss 1 according to the races.

Tonight we played a modified miss 3 and 3 keys hit and we got back 4500 before taxes. If you play the pick 6 and would like to
go over these strategies they work. However they will not work if you cannot pick keys. You can e-mail me at pic6vic@onebox.com.

Are you based in Southern Cal?.

[rrbauer]

Vic
I emailed the stuff to you.


You had a carryover.

You had a card that you could get your arms around from a handicapping perspective.

You had a strategy to maximize your handicapping vis-a-vis your bankroll constraints.

You played.

You won.

Good job!