My Detailed Breeders Cup Analysis For All 8 Races

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JUVENILE FILLIES

POST ODDSHORSE TRAINER JOCKEY1 5-2FOLKLORE D. Wayne Lukas Edgar Prado2 6-1ORIGINAL SPIN Anthony Mitchell Jerry Bailey3 20-1ALONG THE SEA Ralph Ziadie Javier Castellano4 12-1DIAMOND OMI Bob Baffert Victor Espinoza5 12-1KNIGHTS TEMPLAR Danny Vella Gary Stevens6 3-1ADIEU Todd Pletcher John Velazquez7 8-1SENSATION Stanley Hough Eibar Coa8 15-1SHE SAYS IT BEST Vickie Foley Eddie Martin Jr.9 15-1EX CAELIS D. Wayne Lukas Rafael Bejarano10 6-1WILD FIT Jeff Mullins Alex Solis


Runner Assessments

No1 Folklore - Very well bred by Tiznow out of a Storm Cat mare and comes in here as a winner 3 of 6 starts and 2nd at other 3 starts. Last start showed true class when annexing the Group 1 Matron Stakes over 7 furlongs by an amazing 14 lengths. Gets the inside alley and will prove hard to hold out on the back of that very strong last start win. Form references out of the race look very strong to boot. Was with leaders who race, got to front on its own 3 furlongs out and was driven out over the last 2 furlongs showing a superb turn of foot.

No2 Original Spin - Decently bred by Distorted Humour out of a Home At Last mare and comes into this having its 3rd career start as a winner 2 from 2. Last start stepped up to Group 3 company and won by 4.2 lengths with horse finishing 2nd subsequently finishing 2nd at Group 2 level next start franking the form out of the race. That day sat 4th into the stretch and got clear with a furlong to go and went away with superior late race pars.

No3 Along The Sea - By a son of Unbridled in Anees out of a Siberian Express mare and has started 4 times in short career. Broke maiden at 1st start then last 3 starts has placed each time twice behind Adieu (also engaged here) and once behind Folklore when beaten 14 lengths 3rd. Form references suggest will find hard work of it this field.

No4 Diamond Omi - Superbly bred by Giants Causeway out of a Fappiano mare and comes into this having 5th start for the Baffert camp after breaking maiden status 2 back at 3rd start and then last start stepped up in class to Group 2 company when it won to make it two on end. That day defeated Wild Fit who finished 2nd and the start prior was a Group 1 winner which provides a strong form reference for this. Also put a decent 4.7 length margin between 2nd and 3rd winning last start further indicating the overall stregth of the performance.

No5 Knights Templar - By decent type of sire in Exploit from an Irish Tower mare (was an $80K yearling purchase) and is having 7th start today. Last start saluted in Group 3 company at Woodbine defeating Sudsy Baby by 13 lengths (2nd) but the form out of the race does not look as strong as some of the others engaged here.

No6 Adieu - By El Corredor out of an At The Threshold mare (was a $300K 2yo purchase) and is having its 6th career start here. From the very astute Pletcher yard and comes into this on the back of winning at Group 1 level on sloppy ground in The Frizette Stakes at this track. The form references out of that race are not as strong as those produced by Folklore but has to be respected all the same.

No7 Sensation - Very well bred by Dixie Union (Dixieland Band) out of a Mr Prospector mare and comes into this having its 5th career start. Only defeat was 2 back behind Adieu when beaten by 8.7 lengths at Group 3 level but last start came good again winning at Group 2 level defeating Swap Fliparro and Unobstructed View 5.7*5lengths and form reference through Unobstructed View rates it 2 lengths infront of Adieu on that run. Definite hopes here.

No8 She Says It Best - Decently bred by Stormy Atlantic out of a Marsayas mare and is a winner 4 from 6 starts coming into this. Last start saluted at Group 2 level defeating Ex Caelis by 2.5 lengths but form reference from that run suggests still rates 1.8 lengths below Original Spin. Needs to lift again to figure here.

No9 Ex Caelis - Superbly bred by Fusaichi Pegasus out of a Nijinsky mare and is a half sister to Fantastic Look a high class miler from 2-4 years of age in The USA. Winner only 1 of 4 in short career and last 2 starts have seen it beaten by She Says It Best and Original Spin at Group 2 and Group 3 level. Needs to improve considerably to figure here on that exposed form.

No10 Wild Fit - Decently bred by Wild Wonder out of an At Full Feather mare and comes into this a winner 2 of 3 starts. 2 back won at Group 1 level when came from last making headway 5 wide at the top of the stretch unleashing a high class closing par to overhaul the leaders in The Del Mar Debutante. Form reference through Miss Norman who finished 4th that day beaten 9.7 lengths suggests it is well below Adieu and Folklore. Will get back in this field and be ridden for luck hoping for a fast speed on pace to create a good closing opportunity.

Final Betting Assessment - Folklore does look very hard to beat here and shapes as the deserved pre-post favorite at 5/2. Likely to be shorter than that in betting and anything better than 7/4 represents good value and it should win. Sensation at 8/1 pre-post looks the danger. Adieu at 3/1 pre-post looks the next best but is way too short at those odds. For those interested in laying in this race Original Spin is the value lay at 6/1 pre-post.

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JUVENILE

POST ODDSHORSE TRAINER JOCKEY1 30-1SUPERFLY Nick Zito Eibar Coa2 12-1IVAN DENISOVICH (Ire) Aidan O'Brien Kieren Fallon3 20-1LEO (GB) John Gosden Frankie Dettori4 20-1SET ALIGHT Criquette Head-Maarek Rafael Bejarano5 50-1JEALOUS PROFIT Doug O'Neill Corey Nakatani6 20-1DAWN OF WAR Dale Romans Javier Castellano7 30-1STREAM CAT Patrick Biancone Gary Stevens8 12-1SORCERER'S STONE Pat Byrne Mark Guidry9 8-5FIRST SAMURAI Frank Brothers Jerry Bailey10 5-1HENNY HUGHES Kiaran McLaughlin Edgar Prado11 8-1PRIVATE VOW Steve Asmussen John Velazquez12 8-1STEVIE WONDERBOY Doug O'Neill Garrett Gomez13 20-1BROTHER DEREK Dan Hendricks Alex Solis14 20-1DR. PLEASURE John Ward Jr. Jose Santos
Runner Assessments

No1 Superfly - Superbly bred by Fusiachi Pegasus out of a Storm Bird mare. Broke maiden 2 back at 3rd career start then last start finished 12.5l 3rd in Group 1 company when pressed leaders until top of stretch and was one one paced from that point but held on for 3rd. Merit in performance but may need to lift to figure here

No2 Ivan Denisovich - Superbly bred by Danehill out of a Kris S mare and is a half brother to Breeders Cup mile winner War Chant (Danzig). Comes over from Ireland for this from the all powerful Aiden O'Brien yard. Winner 2 of 5 including 3 back at Group 2 level when winning The July Stakes defeating Northern Empire by 2 lengths. 2 subsequent runs have been at Group 1 level finishing 2nd and 4th including 2 back when it finished 2nd beaten 2 lengths by Silca's Sister in France. Group 1 form from those 2 events does not seem as strong as past years and could find it a hard task here again.

No3 Leo - Well bred by Pivotal out of a Primo Dominie mare and is over from The UK for this for the John Gosden camp and gets the services of Dettori. Winner 2 of 6 so far including last start at Group 3 level when it defeated Palace Episode 3rd who 2 starts later annexed the Racing Post Trophy at Group 1 on a heavy track. Form references stand up and carries a minor hope on that form. Sire has a 12% record on AW in The UK so should handle the surface.

No4 Set Alight - Very well bred by Hennessy out of a Mr Prospector mare and is a half brother to high class milers Apple Of Kent and War Zone so bred for this trip. Winner 3 of 6 so far in France and last start annexed the Group 3 Prix Thomas Byron. Form references out of the race seem OK with Fenice who finished 2 lengths fifth start prior getting beat 4l by Horatio Nelson at Group 1 level. Keep safe.

No5 Jealous Profit - Averagely bred by Trippy (End Sweep) out of a Tejano mare. Still a maiden after 3 starts including third at last two starts in Group 3 company convincingly beaten each time. Really needs to lift to figure here and hard to have on that basis.

No6 Dawn Of War - Well bred by Cateinus (Storm Cat) out of a Chimes Band mare and is a full brother to former good juvenile Lisa's Cat. Winner 3 of 6 and has finished 2nd at other 3 starts in short career. Last start won at Group 1 level when defeating Catcominatcha and Stream Cat 3.5*3.3 lengths at Keeneland. Form references out of that race do seem strong with Stream Cat a Group 3 winner the start prior. In top form now and holds chances here on that basis.

No7 Stream Cat - Decently bred by Black Minnaloushe (Storm Cat) out of an Irish River mare. Winner 2 of 4 in short career and 2 back won at Group 3 level before finishing 6.7lengths 3rd last start to the smart Dawn Of War at Group 1 level. Will need to lift on that effort if it is to figure here.

No8 Sorcerer's Stone - Well bred by Gulch out of a Slew O' Gold mare and is a half brother to very smart juvenile Holiday Thunder. Winner 3 from 3 in short career including last start at Group 3 level when it improved again on its ratings to win by 8.5 lengths defeating Charlie Tango. Charlie Tango next start was beaten 22 lengths by Dawn Of War putting a query over the form references. Needs to lift to figure here.

No9 First Samurai - Superbly bred by Giant's Causeway out of a Dixieland Band mare and so far has won 4 from 4 in short career. Winner at group 1 level last 2 starts including last start at this track when produced a commanding performance to win 3.7*9.7 lengths defeating Henny Hughes and Superfly. Form through those 2 does make this a very strong contender and hard to stop if it is in the same frame of mind today.

No10 Henny Hughes - Well bred by Hennessy out of a Meadowlake mare and is a half brother to 6 other sprint winners. Won first 3 career starts including a Group 2 at Saratoga before last 2 starts finishing 2nd to the very smart First Samurai both times at Group 1 level. Well placed here but seems to be well below First Samurai on exposed form and should finish behind it again here but capable of getting on the board for 2nd or 3rd.

No11 Private Now - Decently bred by 1st season sire Broken Vow (Unbridled) out of a Deputy Minister mare and was a $180K yearling purchase. Has won 3 from 4 in short career including last start at Group 2 level 9*4.3 lengths. Form reference out of that race does seem strong with Union Course beaten 14 lengths 4th and the start prior was only 7 lengths behind Henny Hughes. This gives Private Now a 2-3 length margin on form over First Samurai the pre-post favorite here. Definitely worth including and could be the boilover horse and shapes as good value on that basis.

No12 Stevie Wonderboy - Well bred by Stephen Got Even (A.P Indy) from a Summer Squall mare. Comes into this after winning 2 from 4 in short career so far. Last start won at Group 2 level at Del Mar by 5 lengths in what shapes as an average Group 2 form race. Has minor claims and keeps on improving but needs to lift considerably to win this.

No13 Brother Derek - OK bred by Benchmark (Alydar) out of a Siyah Kalem mare and was a $275K purchase as a 2yo. Winner 2 of 3 in short career including last start in a weakish type Group 2 from Santa Anita. Form references out of the race suggest ratings below Stevie Wonderboy and will struggle with that assessment.

No14 Dr. Pleasure - Well bred by Thunder Gulch out of a Maudland mare. Winner 1 of 2 in short career and on exposed form looks to be merely making up the numbers her.

Final Betting Assessment - This shapes as a good quality betting race value wise and have decided to lean the way of Private Now who has exposed form references suggesting it can defeat the hot pot favorite First Samurai who must be included for 2nd as the exposed class runner in the field. Private Now is 8/1 pre-post and that is good value and is more likely a true 13/4 chance. First Samurai at 8/5 pre-post does seem short and is probably a true 7/2 chance so is under the odds. Dawn Of War makes for good value at 20/1 pre-post as the likely third here. For those interested in laying the value lay in this race shapes as Henny Hughes who is the 5/1 2nd favorite pre-post but could easily finish off the board.

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FILLY & MARE TURF

POSTODDSHORSETRAINERJOCKEY115-1LUAS LINE (Ire)David WachmanChristophe Soumillon212-1FILM MAKERGraham MotionPat Valenzuela330-1SUNDROP (Jpn)Saeed bin SuroorFrankie Dettori415-1RISKAVERSEPat KellyJose Santos510-1WENDBill MottJohn Velazquez620-1FLIP FLOP (Fr)Ben CecilGarrett Gomez78-1WONDER AGAINJames TonerEdgar Prado85-1MEGAHERTZ (GB)Bobby FrankelAlex Solis920-1FAVOURABLE TERMS (GB)Sir Michael StouteMichael Kinane108-1INTERCONTINENTAL (GB)Bobby FrankelRafael Bejarano1115-1MONA LISA (GB)Aidan O'BrienKieren Fallon1215-1KAREN'S CAPERJohn GosdenRobby Albarado135-2OUIJA BOARD (GB)Ed DunlopJerry Bailey1420-1ANGARA (GB)Patrick BianconeGary Stevens
Runner Assessments

No1 Luas Line - Superbly bred by Danehill out of an In The Wings mare and is half sister to Dames Blanche. Having 3rd start in The USA here after coming over from Ireland with David Watchman. Won 1st start here at Group 1 level 2 back but then finished 6th of 7 as favorite last start also at Group 1 level when it pressed leader and pulled hard. Probably better off to forget that run but 2 back seems only an average type of Group 1 contest. Sute to be stronger engaged in this race.

No2 Film Maker - Very well bred by Danformer out of a Mr Prospector mare. Consistent Group 1 performer in 20 start career but has been beaten consistently by Riskaverse, Ouija Board and Wend who are all engaged here. Capable of sneaking onto the board but needs to be at absolute best in this high quality field to do so.

No3 Sundrop - Very well bred by Sunday Silence out of a Night Shift mare and is having 3rd USA start here after earlier campaigning in Europe for the all powerful Godolphin yard. Beaten 3 lengths each of last 2 starts by Riskaverse and Angara and also behind Ouija Board in Europe so needs to lift on exposed form.

No4 Riskaverse - Very well bred by Dynaformer out of a Seeking The Gold mare and caused a boilover last start winning at Group 1 level at 35/1 when got the run of the race held up behind the leaders under a fast tempo which suited it. Was fluked and flattered that day and will have to get everything go right for it here to win again in this event, unlikely to happen.

No5 Wend - Well bred lightly raced improver by Pulpit (A.P Indy) out of a Topsider mare. Won at Group 2 level 3 back at this track in a relatively strong type of Group 2 form race. Last 2 starts at Group 1 level have seen it be beaten by Angara and Intercontinental who are both engaged here and likely to suffer the same fate again here today. Capable of getting into the minors but needs to keep on improving again to do so.

No6 Flip Flop - Averagely bred by Zeiten out of a Vernon Castle mare and is having 5th start in The USA over from France. Showed its true class last start finishing 2nd at Group 1 level when behind the smart type Megahertz beaten 1 length at Santa Anita. Rates on a par with Intercontinental through that form reference but still comes out well below the likes of Angara and Ouija Board.

No7 Wonder Again - Very well bred by Silver Hawk out of a Danzig mare and comes into this a proven Group 1 performer. Consistently thereabout behind the likes of Angara, Wend, Ouija Board and Riskaverse and on those exposed form references does need to lift slightly to win here but can't see it improving enough to get home over the top of all of them.

No8 Megahertz - Well bred by Pivotal out of a Rahy mare and comes into this as a winner 4 of last 5 including 1* Group 1 and 3 * Group 2. Very strong form references for this but still have to say that it will struggle on those exposed references to beat home the likes of Angara and Ouija Board.

No9 Favourable Terms - Well bred by Selkirk out of a Private Account mare and is over from The UK for this. Winner 6 of 10 in short career including 3 back at Group 1 level defeating Silence Is Golden and Chorist. Form references through Chorist put it on par with proven type Alexander Goldrun and only 2 lengths behind Haafhd. Repeat of that form will see it figure prominently here.

No10 Intercontinental - Very well bred by Danehill out of a Kayhasi mare and is a full sister to top class Banks Hill. Winner 5 of last 7 starts all at Group 1 and 2 level and form referfences from last start suggest it is 1-1.5 lengths infront of Megahertz here but still well below Ouija Board.

No11 Mona Lisa - Superbly bred by Giant's Causeway out of a Shirley Heights mare from the family of Kayf Tara. Comes over from Ireland for Aiden O'Brien with Fallon booking a big plus for this turf event. 3 back finished 6 lengths 7th to Angara in only other USA start when it seemed to have no excuses. Rates 2 lengths below Alexander Goldrun and therefor comes in below Favourable Terms aswell but worth keeping safe all the same with Fallon engaged.

No12 Karen's Caper - Very well bred by hot young under rated sire War Chant (Danzig) out of a Caerelon mare. Having 2nd start in The USA for Gosden after last start finishing 2nd in a 3yo Group 1 which was a good lead up for this. Form references through Gorella who finished 3rd that day put it only 1.5 lengths behind the French super filly Divine Proportions. With slight improvement inevitable it comes now right into this with a major chance.

No13 Ouija Board - Decently bred by Cape Cross out of a Welsh Pageant mare. Comes into this race 3rd up this season as the defending champion after winning it last season at Lone Star Park. Fitness will be the query as is only having its 3rd start for the season after going amiss early on in the year. Won at Group 3 level at Newmarket last start but didn't beat much that day. If it is at it's top it will be right in the mix but prefer to take for a place as Karen's Caper does look ready with the right form and is going better than it at present on exposed form references matching the two up through Bago, Divine Proportions and Cherry Mix.

No14 Angara - Well bred by Alzao out of an Alleged mare and comes into this after winning at Group 1 level 3 back over Megahertz but form has since tailed off last 2 starts. A repeat of that run 3 back can see it figure here but prefer to just keep it safe especially on the back of last 2 runs.

Final Betting Assessment - The European contingent look to have the edge over their USA counterparts here as is so often the case on turf. Decided to leans towards the lightly raced improver Karen's Caper on top and at 15/1 pre-post represents superb value as it is true chance is more like 4/1 in an open race. Ouija Board has to be taken for 2nd as the defending champion and if right will prove hard to hold out but that is the query, has it come back as good as last time in when winning this race last season and at 5/2 pre-post it is probably slightly under the odds and more like a 4/1 to 9/2 chance for mine. I have decided to include another European raider for 3rd and that is Favourable Terms who at 20/1 pre-post is well over the odds and should be more like a 9/2-5/1 chance in this. For those interested in laying Megahertz looks the value lay at 5/1 pre-post as it is under its true price and should be more like 7/1 or 8/1 here.

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SPRINT

POST ODDSHORSE TRAINER JOCKEY1 12-1TASTE OF PARADISE Gary Mandella Garrett Gomez2 30-1ATTILA'S STORM Richard Schosberg Pat Valenzuela3 8-1SILVER TRAIN Richard Dutrow Jr. Edgar Prado4 10-1BATTLE WON Charles Simon Ramon Dominguez5 12-1LION TAMER Todd Pletcher John Velazquez6 10-1WILDCAT HEIR Ben Perkins Jr. Stewart Elliott7 evenLOST IN THE FOG Greg Gilchrist Russell Baze8 12-1ELUSIVE JAZZ Bobby Barnett Robby Albarado9 30-1LIFESTYLE Wesley Ward Alex Solis10 15-1IMPERIALISM Kristin Mulhall Victor Espinoza11 12-1GYGISTAR Mark Hennig Javier Castellano
Runner Assessments

No1 Taste Of Paradise - Well bred by Conquistador Ceilo (Mr Prospector) out of What Luck mare. Comes into this after winning at Group 1 level last start in a career best performance by 2 lengths defeating Tiger Heart and Lion Tamer. Came from off the pace that day with a sensational stretch par. Repeat of that effort will see it figure prominently in the below average Group 1 type sprinting affair.

No2 Atilla's Storm - Decently bred by Forest Wildcat out of a Magesterial mare. Showed best form last start winning an Allowance race at Monmouth Park 5.5*2.5 lengths but this is a big step up in class on that last start win. Will need to improve again to figure here against some of it's more credentialed rivals

No3 Silver Train - Well bred by Old Trieste (A.P Indy) out of a Cormorant mare and last start annexed a Group 2 3yo sprint at this track 5*2.7 lengths defeating High Fly 2nd. Form references out of that race are very strong for this with High Fly only 7 lengths off the smart Giacomo and also a prior winner of different races over Bandini and Noble Causeway at Group 2 and Group 1 level respectively. Definite high hopes on that form.

No4 Battle Won - Above average breeding by Honour And Glory out of a Caller ID mare. Has finished 2nd at Group 1 level twice this season behind Mass Media and Greg's Gold on each occassion. Definitely capable of figuring on that form but needs to overcome last start failure.

No5 Lion Tamer - Average breeding by Will's Way out of an Olympio mare. Was beaten 3.5 lengths by Mass Media back in October 2004 putting it 3 lengths behind Battle Won and last start was beaten 2 lengths by Taste Of Paradise. Need to improve a fair bit to figure here.

No6 Wildcat Heir - Well bred by Forest Wildcat out of a Pentcelius mare and comes into this as a Group 1 winner in November 2004 at Pimlico and last start found career best form when tuned up winning by 5.7 lengths at Monmouth in the Teddy Drone Stakes. Form references from it's Group 1 win at Pimlico in Nov 2004 suggest it will be a major force in this.

No7 Lost In The Fog - Decently bred by Lost Soldier out of a Dr Carter mare. Undefeated in short career so far and this is the acid test for it. Tuned up for this with a 7 lengths romp at the start of October and back on 27 August won at Group 1 3yo level in The Kings Bishop Stakes at Saratoga 4.7*0.7 lengths in what looks a good form reference for this. The query is the form around Afleet Alex and it does suggest that this one will have its work cut out to beat Silver Train who looks to have its measure through Afleet Alex form references and at the short quote does not appear value here.

No8 Elusive Jazz - Very well bred by Elusive Quality out of a Kentucky Jazz mare and comes into this after annexing a Group 3 sprint at Keeneland on 8 October defeating Wild Tale and Premium Saltline 3*1.3 lengths. Needs to keep on improving here to worry the top few but breeding suggests is well above average so keep safe all the same.

No9 Lifestyle - Average breeding by Indian Charlie (In Express) out of a Gold Seam mare. Last start was 4 lengths 2nd to Bilo in an Optional Claimer and then Bilo was beaten 3 lengths by Captain Squire at Group 1 level. Definitely needs to lift on that and only making up the numbers here.

No10 Imperialism - Well bred by Langfuhr out of a Pass The Tab mare. High class multiple Group 1 placed 4yo colt who's best form is over the routes but on 21 August annexed the Group 2 Pat O'Brien Breeders Cup handicap over 7 furlongs at Del Mar. Taste Of Paradise finished 3rd that day and then won at Group 1 franking the form out of the race. Imperialism was held up in the rear that day and came from off the pace with a high class closing par to win. Back to 6 furlongs today is a query but right in this on a repeat of that run.

No11 Gygistar - OK breeding by Prospector's Music out of an Ogygian mare and comes into this as a runner who is consistently there abouts in Group 2 and Group 3 company. May struggle to match it with the best of these on its exposed form but very consistent all the same as mentioned earlier.

Final Betting Assessment - Another good value event if we have it correct. Decided to go with the pre-post 2nd favorite on top here Silver Train. Is 8/1 pre-post but should be a lot shorter than that but with the 2nd pick Lost In The Fog having such a boom on it there is good value created. At stated have decided to include the boom youngster Lost In The Fog for 2nd. For 3rd we will include Imperialism who also hold major claims in this event. For those interested in laying there is real no sure fire good lays in this event.

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MILE

POST ODDSHORSE TRAINER JOCKEY1 12-1HOST (Chi) Todd Pletcher Rafael Bejarano2 6-1ARTIE SCHILLER James Jerkens Garrett Gomez3 12-1WHIPPER Robert Collet John Murtagh4 20-1SAND SPRINGS Bill Mott Jerry Bailey5 20-1AD VALOREM Aidan O'Brien Kieren Fallon6 12-1FUNFAIR (GB) Graham Motion Edgar Prado7 15-1MAJORS CAST (Ire) Jeremy Noseda Frankie Dettori8 20-1GORELLA (Fr) Patrick Biancone Gary Stevens9 8-1SINGLETARY Don Chatlos Jr. David Flores10 10-1VALIXIR (Ire) Andre Fabre Christophe Soumillon11 7-5LEROIDESANIMAUX (Brz) Bobby Frankel Jon Velazquez12 20-1LIMEHOUSE Todd Pletcher Jose Santos
Runner Assessments

No1 Host - Very well bred by Hussonet out of a Roy mare and comes into this after last start winning the Group 1 Shadwell Turf Mile in impressive fashion defeating a top class field including Vanderlin, Ad Valorem and Alinghi amongst others. As a 3yo won The Chilean 3yo Guineas at Hippodrome. Form references out of that race look strong but still rates well below Leriodesanimaux on that form form reference.

No2 Artie Schiller - Very well bred by El Prado out of a Majestic Light mare. Comes into this as a dual Group 2 winner over its last 5 starts and also placed all other of those starts at Group level. In April won the Group 2 Maker's Mark Mile Stakes at Keeneland by 2 lengths over Gulch Approval and form references out of that race put it 1 length behind Host here. Has claims but not the best of these.

No3 Whipper - Very well bred by Miesque's Son out of a Saddler's Wells mare and is from the family of Shirley Heights. Having 1st start in The USA over from France and comes into this with solid claims after 2 back finishing 1.3 lengths 2nd to Dubawi at Deauville in a Group 1 when 3rd and 4th home that day were the very smart pair Valixir and Divine Proportions. A very strong form reference for this. Last start was not disgraced when beaten 3 lengths by champion European miler Starcraft in the Prix De Moulin alos in France over 1 mile. Form references suggest still not in the class of Host through Ad Valorem and Three Valleys.

No4 Sand Springs - Very well bred by Dynaformer out of a Storm Bird mare and comes into this winning at Group 1 level 2 back over 9 furlongs at Saratoga. Rates 1 length in front of Alinghi through Que Puntal on that form reference and may struggle against the likes of Leriodesanimaux and Host on repeat of that effort.

No5 Ad Valorem - Superbly bred by Danzig out of Relaunch mare and last season won the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket but this season that form reference has lost some of it's glitter with those finishing behind it that day not measuring up in The UK to top class company as 3yo's. Proven further with Ad Valorem not winning this season and last start was beaten 5 lengths 6th by Host. Thereabouts but not up to winning this on what it has shown this time in.

No6 Funfair - Well bred by Singspiel out of a Mr Prospector mare. Having 4th start in The USA after earlier racing in The UK against much weaker company. Has won all 3 starts so far in The USA and kept on improving each time culminating last start in a Group 2 win at Belmont in the Kelso Breeders Cup Handicap. Defeated Artie Schiller 2nd that day putting it just behind Host but another form reference suggests it is 3-4 lengths below the likes of Singletary and still has a lot to make up on Leroidesanimaux. Place chance at best.

No7 Majors Cast - Decently bred by Victory Note out of a Taufan mare and last start finished 2 lengths 3rd to Starcraft and 0.5 lengths in front of Whipper. There abouts but yet to win at Group 1 level and hard to see it breaking the duck egg here despite the booking of Dettori.

No8 Gorella - Below average breeding by Grape Tree Road (Caerleon) out of a Loup Homme mare but is a winner 3 from 10 career starts and is 3 times placed at Group 1 level including 2.5 lengths 2nd to Starcraft 2 back defeating Majors Cast/Whipper and 0.3 lengths 3rd to Sweet Talker last start. Has outside claims but not on the level of Host or Leriodesanimaux.

No9 Singletary - OK breeding by Sultry Song (Cox's Ridge) out of a Star De Naskra mare. Winner of this race last year at 14/1 and then next start at Group 1 level was beaten 5 lengths by Leriodesanimaux. Tuned up for this with a strong Group 2 win last start on 8 October at Santa Anita defeating Designed For Luck 2nd and Buckland Manor 3rd and form references out of those 2 suggest it has improved to peak form again as both of those put it only 1-1.5 lengths behind Leriodesanimaux. Definite claims it if can improve again here and remember produced it last year at this time to win this race.

No10 Valixir - Well bred by Trempolino out of a Linamix mare and is from a very good French family. Has gone slightly off the boil at last 2 starts finishing 6 lengths 5th to Starcraft and 2.3 lengths 3rd to Dubawi but 4 back won The Queen Anne stakes Group 1 at York defeating Starcraft by 2 lengths. Has been freshened for this and on that basis capable of recapturing best form and is a definite chance on that basis.

No11 Leriodesanimaux - Decently bred by Candy Stripes (2nd French Guineas) out of an Ahanoora mare. This is the pre-post favorite and has somewhat of a boom on it at present after winning its last 8 starts on end. 3 of its last 4 wins have been at Group 1 level including its last start demolition of a very good field in The Group 1 Atto Mile at Woodbine where it romped home by 7 lengths albeit on a rain effected yielding surface which flattered the margins that day. Decided to go on its win from November 2004 in The Citation Handicap at Group 1 level where it defeated Three Valleys 1.5l into 3rd and then Three Valleys came out last start and was beaten 5 lengths by Host. As stated the win at Woodbine was fluked and flattered by a yielding track and with Host at 12/1 pre-post it represents much better value for that form line but all the same Leriodesanimaux is the major danger.

No12 Limehouse - Well bred by Grand Slam out of a Dixieland Band mare and comes into this after last start finishing 1 length 5th to Funfair at Group 1 level when it refound some of its old dirt form. Keep it safe as it may improve again and is from the astute Pletcher yard.

Final Betting Assessment - Another good value betting race with the short priced favorite Leriodesanimaux no good thing. Have decided to go with the big value runner and last start high class winner Host on top here. At 12/1 pre-post it represents excellent value. Realistically is more of a true 3/1 chance in this field. We will take Leriodesanimaux for 2nd after its last start romp in Canada at Woodbine and at 7/5 is well under its true value odds of 7/2. For 3rd we will include the Valixir who on its best European form is capable of winning anything and has beaten the likes of Starcraft and Rakti earlier this season. Also for multiples you can throw in Singletary who is the other chance. For those interested in laying the value lay here is Artie Schiller at 6/1PP and seems more like a true 15/1 chance.

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DISTAFF

PP ODDSHORSE TRAINER JOCKEY1 8-1SOCIETY SELECTION Allen Jerkens Edgar Prado2 5-1STELLAR JAYNE Saeed bin Suroor Frankie Dettori3 2-1ASHADO Todd Pletcher John Velazquez4 30-1NOTHING BUT FUN Michael Hushion Alex Solis5 30-1YOLANDA B. TOO Richard Violette Jr. Eibar Coa6 10-1HEALTHY ADDICTION John Sadler Garrett Gomez7 6-1HAPPY TICKET Andrew Leggio Jr. Victor Espinoza8 12-1ISLAND FASHION Marcelo Polanco Rafael Bejarano9 20-1HOLLYWOOD STORY John Shirreffs Pat Valenzuela10 20-1IN THE GOLD Nick Zito Gary Stevens11 20-1PLEASANT HOME Shug McGaughey Cornelio Velasquez12 8-1SWEET SYMPHONY Bill Mott Jerry Bailey13 30-1CAPESIDE LADY Todd Pletcher Chris DeCarlo
Runner Assessments

No1 Society Selection - Decently bred by Coronado's Quest (Forty Niner), sire stands in Japan out of a Dixieland Band mare. Has won 3 times at Group 1 level as a 2yo and 3yo but this season form has tapered off slightly with the likes of Ashado and Stellar Jayne. On those last 4 defeats at Group 1 level now rates slightly behind the best of these and hard to see it turning the tables here.

No2 Stellar Jayne - Well bred by Wild Rush (Wild Again) out of a Relaunch mare and is representing the all powerful Godolphin operation here with Dettori booked to ride. Comes into this as a triple Group 1 winner and has very solid claims on its best form including last start when it won The Ruffian Handicap at Group 1 level at this track 1.2*4lengths defeating Society Jayne 2nd. Form references through Society Jayne put it 1-1.5 lengths below Ashado and was also beaten 1.3 length when 3rd to Ashado in this race last year. The big factor playing in its favour here today is the booking of Dettori and if given a smart ride from the good gate could prove hard to hold out as one of the likely major players.

No3 Ashado - Superbly bred by Saint Ballado out of a Mari's Brook mare and comes into this race as the defending champion after annexing the event last season by 1.2l when it defeated Storm Flag Flying and Stellar Jayne. It is now a 7 time Group 1 winner after winning 3 times at the highest level this season and is currently in career best form and going better than ever before so there is no reason to think it won't figure as one of the best chances in this event as it did when winning last year.

No4 Nothing But Fun - Well bred lightly raced improver by Dixie Union out of a Theatrical mare. Came of age on 1 October winning at Group 2 level defeating Yolanda B Too and Shebelongstoyou by small margins but references out of that race suggests it is making a major step up in class to proven Group 1 company against the best of these. Can't see it winning here.

No5 Yolanda B Too - Well bred by Two Punch (Mr Prospector) out of a Lord Avie mare. Comes into this as another lightly raced improving 3yo like a few of the others but the 3yo form this season does not seem as strong as past years especially through these form references. Last start finished 2nd to Nothing But Fun and on that basis will struggle against the best of these.

No6 Healthy Addiction - Well bred by Boston Harbour (Capote) out of a Gone West mare and comes into this on the back of winning at Group 2 level last start at Santa Anita. The form out of the race through Island Fashion 3rd and Hollywood Story 4th that day suggest it rates 3 lengths below Ashado so has claims but needs to improve again to win here. Outside hopes at best.

No7 Happy Ticket - Decently bred type by Anet (Phone Trick) out of a Septieme Cel mare. Very smart type who has won 10 from 12 and is consistently improving every start. 4 back stepped up to Group 3 company for the first time and blew them away at Arlington winning by 3.5 lengths in a good form race. Went into Group 1 company for the 1st time and won again 2 back at Saratoga on a muddy track in the Ballerina Stakes once again by an impressive 5.2 length margin defeating Pleasant Home and Molto Vita. Last start ran into Ashado and finished 2nd in The Beldame Stakes over 10 furlongs. Ashado got a much better run in transit that day and the track was rated fast. Happy Ticket seems to go slightly better on rain effected ground and with the prospect of a wet track and the better run in transit over the slightly shorter 9 furlong trip it is every chance of getting home over the top of Ashado here as Ashado will face much more pressure up on pace in this larger field today than it did in that last race with only 7 runners engaged.

No8 Island Fashion - Well bred by Petionville out of A Danzig's Fashion mare. Comes into this as a there about proven Group 1 type but is consistently outdone by a few that seem better than it. Ran 4 lengths 5th in this race last year and today comes into this on a similar form level as last year so very hard to see it turning the tables on Ashado this time around who had 4 lengths on it last year.

No9 Hollywood Story - Well bred by Wild Rush out of a Dynaformer mare and was beaten 10.5 lengths by Ashado in this race last year. Form references this time in suggest it is going no better and last start was 2 lengths 4th to Healthy Addition so that puts it 5 lengths below Ashado and that sound right as when it was at the top of its game in April 04 Ashado beat it by 5 lengths in the Group 1 Kentucky Oaks.

No10 In The Gold - Decently bred by Golden Missile (A.P Indy) out of a Groovy mare. Winner 4 of 12 in short career and shapes an improving and likely type of 3yo filly. Last 4 starts have all been at Group 1 level and finally broke through last start at this track defeating Leave Me Alone and Yolanda B Too 2.2*1 lengths. Form references out of that race seem very strong with Leave Me Alone the start prior romping home by 7 lengths at Group 1 level. That form reference provides a proven line back to Happy ticket through Smuggler that suggests In The Gold in on a par with Happy Ticket or slightly better. The minor query is though the fact that it is not an absolute positive scenario that Leave Me Alone was at the top of its game when 2nd to In The Gold. All in all on that form In The Gold has every chance here on a repeat of its last start big win.

No11 Pleasant Home - Superbly bred by Seeking The Gold out of a Pleasant Colony mare. Comes into this as a lightly raced improver who seems to be handling the step up in company OK after finishing 2nd at each of it's last two starts at Group 1 level. Tuned up for this last start when finished 2nd at Keeneland in the Group 1 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes beaten 1.7 lengths by Pampered Princess. On those form references rates below Stellar Jayne and Ashado on proven form references so hard to see it figuring in the top 3 here.

No12 Sweet Symphony - Superbly bred by A.P Indy out of a Distinctive Pro mare and comes into this as another of the lightly raced improving 3yo's engaged. Prepared to forget last start when beaten 6.3 lengths by Ashado at Group 1 level as it didn't seem to close off the race in the stretch and obviously was not at the top of its game that day. Go on huge effort 2 back when bolted in by 6.2 lengths defeating Spun Sugar in the Group 1 Alabama stakes. Form references through Sis City 4th give it a big pull over In The Gold and form references through Spun Sugar 2nd put it also slightly in front of In The Gold through a Smuggler form line. On that basis at 8/1 pre-post it does seem very good value here and shapes as the one to beat if it can repeat that big win 2 starts back and turn the tables on Ashado which is very likely.

No13 Capeside Lady - Well bred by Capetown out of a Zen mare and comes in here with a good dirt record of 7 from 14. 3 back was a Group 2 winner at Monmouth in impressive fashion by 5 lengths but two starts since have exposed that form for its true worth with it being 9 lengths by Stellar Jayne (had excuses that day) and 2 lengths last start by Pampered Princess when 3rd, both those runs were at Group 1 level so hard to see it figuring here.

Final Betting Assessment - Once again another likely good value betting race greets us here which seems to be the order of the day so far. Ashado is likely to be sent out a prohibitive quote as 2/1 pre-post favorite but I feel there is 3 horses capable of lowering its colors here which is enough for me to oppose it with some confidence. For 1st I have decided to lean towards the lightly raced and superbly bred improver Sweet Symphony who at 8/1 pre-post represents excellent value as it should probably be 4/1 in this field as true assessed odds. For 2nd I have included the 4yo mare Happy Ticket who at 6/1 seems slightly over the odds and should be closer to 9/2. For third and the biggest value of all three I have included In The Gold from the Zito camp and at 20/1 pre-post it is well over the odds and should be 9/2-5/1 in this field. This means we have left Ashado out of the top 3 but it has to come in for 4th but at 2/1 pre-post is well under its true price of 9/2-5/1. On assessment it is an even type of field but one must go with the value around the top 3. For those looking to lay in this race Stellar Jayne is the best value lay at 5/1 as its true price should be closer to the 10/1 mark and is also well under the odds but has much less chance that Ashado so it is the value lay. For exotic players there is very good value around boxing up the top 4 mentioned in a tri as it is hard to see that 4 horse combination missing out and it will provide some decent type of value if Ashado gets rolled which is likely.

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TURF

POST ODDSHORSE TRAINER JOCKEY1 99-1SHAKE THE BANK Graham Motion Tom Turner2 20-1SHIROCCO (Ger) Andre Fabre Christophe Soumillon3 5-1BAGO (Fr) Jonathan Pease Thierry Gillet4 8-1BETTER TALK NOW Graham Motion Ramon Dominguez5 7-2AZAMOUR (Ire) John Oxx Michael Kinane6 12-1ACE (Ire) Aidan O'Brien Kieren Fallon7 3-1SHAKESPEARE Bill Mott Jerry Bailey8 30-1SILVERFOOT Dallas Stewart Rafael Bejarano9 15-1FOURTY NINERS SON Neil Drysdale Corey Nakatani10 10-1ENGLISH CHANNEL Todd Pletcher John Velazquez11 20-1LAURA'S LUCKY BOY Richard Mandella Gary Stevens12 20-1LEPRECHAUN KID Mike Mitchell Garrett Gomez13 20-1GUN SALUTE Bill Mott Cornelio Velasquez
Runner Assessments

No1 Shake The Bank - Averagely bred type by Sandpit out of a Strike Gold mare and comes into this event on the back of failing dismally in Group 1 company at its last few starts with no excuses. Merely making up the numbers and cant figure here.

No2 Shirocco - Lightly raced improver by leading high class German sire Monsun out of a The Misntrel mare. Winner of 3 out of 8 career starts so far and last 3 starts have been in Italy & France. Last start showed its true class when 4th in The Prix de l'arc de Triomphe beaten 4 lengths by Hurricane Run which is a very strong for reference for this. 3 back defeated Electrocutionist at San Siro in Italy when annexing the Group 1 Gran Premio del Jockey Club. Electrocutionist then went to The UK 3 starts later to win The Juddmonte International Stakes defeating the likes of Zenno Rob Roy and Ace (also engaged here). A top class form reference for this event and on that basis Shirocco rates a serious chance here if at the top of his game.

No3 Bago - Superbly bred by Nashwan out of a Nureyev mare and comes into this race as the winner of The Prix de l'arc de Triomphe last year and finished 3rd in the same race last start behind Hurricane Run. Beat Shirocco by 0.7 lengths that day and rates slightly infront of it here and on that basis also has major claims.

No4 Better Talk Now - Averagely bred type by Talkin Man out of a Baldski mare and last start saluted in Group 1 company when he annexed the Man O' War stakes at this track. Two starts back he was beaten 3 lengths by Powerscourt and that form reference suggests he is not up to the best of these through the proven European turf formlines held by Powerscourt.

No5 Azamour - Well bred by Night Shift out of a Lear Fan mare. Has been freshened for this hoping to find its best form again after last start finishing 5th in The Irish Champion Stakes behind Oratario and Motivator. 3 back put in a career best performance to beat Ace by 1.5 lengths in The Prince Of Wales Stakes Group 1 at York but even a repeat of that effort here will see it rate right up with the best of these. Ace is a proven type who at its last 3 starts was beaten 1 length each time by Shakespear, Oratario and Electrocutionist.

No6 Ace - Superbly bred by Danehill out of a a Sassafras mare and is a full brother to high class miler Hawkeye. Rates 1-1.5 lengths below the best of these after last 3 starts finishing on the heels of Shakespeare, Oratario, Electrocutionist and Azamour. Definitely a high class animal but will find a few of these two good and the only way it can figure is with an absolute gem ride by Fallon but Fallon is not at home on the tighter USA tracks as has been proven by his past journeys here where he has been well below his best.

No7 Shakespeare - Well bred by Theatrical out of a That's A Nice mare and comes into this undefeated in 5 career starts so far. Looks the best of the older locals on exposed form and last start stepped up to Group 1 company at this track annexing The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational. The form out of that race does seem strong with Ace finishing 3rd and Meteor Storm 4th. Interesting to note that Shakespeare is potentially 2 lengths better through the Meteor Storm for reference as it beat Meteor Storm by 3.7 lengths the start prior but that was also in a small 4 horse field where the pace was not true making it potentially slightly flattered on that day. All the same carries a major hope but might find a few of these too good and is a risky proposition as the 3/1 pre-post favorite.

No8 Silver Foot - Decently bred by With Approval (Caro) out of a Silver Ghost mare and last start won a Group 2 race at Kentucky Downs by 6.7 lengths on a firm track and the run was full of merit. Other references from earlier career starts put it well behind Better Talk Now but that last run suggests it jumped out of it's skin and rated higher than Better Talk Now through Rochester who finished 2nd to it that day in Kentucky. So all in all it does make this a minor query runner at odds.

No9 Fourty Niners Son - Well bred by Distorted Humor out of an Alleged mare and comes into this in very good form at present after last start winning against Group 1 company at Arlington. Form references out of that race do suggest though that there was no improvement in the performance from when it finished 3 lengths 3rd to Powerscourt the start prior also at Group 1 so prepared to dismiss it here.

No10 English Channel - Well bred 3yo colt by Smart Strike out of a Theatrical mare. Keeps improving each start and is a winner 5 of 8 in its short career and 2 back finished 1.7l 2nd to Gun Salute in 3yo Group 1 company at Arlington in The Secretariat Stakes with a further 5*4 lengths back to 3rd and 4th indicating good depth in the quality of the first two across the line albeit on a a rain effected yielding track. Interesting to note that Grand Central from Europe finished 4th that day beaten 9 lengths by English Channel and 4 starts earlier Grand Central was beaten 1 length under similar conditions at Leopardstown by the Watchman trained Fracas and Fracas was then beaten 9 lengths 4th next start by Motivator in the Vodafone Derby at Epsom thus putting English Channel only 1 length behind Motivator when he was at his best. It is a removed form reference but one to note all the same especially when considering the chances of another 3yo also engaged here Gun Salute as mentioned above.

No11 Laura's Lucky Boy - Averagely bred by Theatrical out of a Corridor Key mare and comes into this 1 length 3rd to Fourty Niners Son who is also engaged here. Has only started once in Group 1 company when it failed and no other performances of note. Merely making up the numbers.

No12 Leprechaun Kid - Averagely bred by Alphabet Soup (Cozzene) out of a Persian Bold mare and comes into this off basically the same form references as Laura's Lucky Boy at its last few starts. Realistically hard to see it figuring in this company and looks also to be merely making up the numbers in this field.

No13 Gun Salute - Well bred 3yo colt by Military (Danzig) out of a Roberto mare and is definitely bred for turf racing. Is a lightly raced improver who seems to be consistently measuring up when asked in tougher company each time and is a winner 6 of 10 career starts so far. Winner 4 of last 5 including last 3 on end at Group 3, 2 & 1 level inc 2 back when in Group 1 company annexed the Secretariat Stakes at Arlington defeating English Channel by 1.7l with a further 5*4 lengths back to 3rd and 4th on a yielding surface in a very dominant performance against top class opposition. Looks very well placed here on that form reference through Grand Central who finished 4th and could be the knockout horse at 20/1 pre-post. Another form reference through Embossed 5th that day also suggests the same as the Grand Central form reference back through Sharmardal and on that basis am prepared to include it here as the big value is hard to pass up.

Final Betting Assessment - Once again another big value betting race greets us here. Have decided to take the value runner Gun Salute who is in fine form and at 20/1 pre-post represents huge value in this and should be much shorter but has been overlooked by market framers for the more proven types. We will include the proven Azamour for 2nd on his top class European form and for 3rd we will include Bago. Also worth mentioning is the other value 3yo runner English Channel who could easily figure and should be included for exotic players. For those interested in laying we would suggest taking on Shakespeare in this, although his form is first class and solid he is yet to prove himself against absolute top class Group 1 company as he meets here and at 3/1 pre-post favorite is well under his true chance odds.

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CLASSIC

POST ODDSHORSE TRAINER JOCKEY1 7-2ROCK HARD TEN Richard Mandella Gary Stevens2 30-1SUN KING Nick Zito Rafael Bejarano3 15-1CHOCTAW NATION Jeff Mullins Victor Espinoza4 10-1ORATORIO (Ire) Aidan O'Brien Kieren Fallon5 12-1PERFECT DRIFT Murray Johnson Mark Guidry6 20-1SIR SHACKLETON Nick Zito Javier Castellano7 30-1SUPER FROLIC Vladimir Cerin Eibar Coa8 20-1SUAVE Paul McGee Edgar Prado9 10-1FLOWER ALLEY Todd Pletcher John Velazquez10 50-1JACK SULLIVAN Gerard Butler Frankie Dettori11 9-2BORREGO Beau Greely Garrett Gomez12 30-1A BIT O'GOLD Catherine Day-Phillips Jono Jones13 3-1SAINT LIAM Richard Dutrow Jr. Jerry Bailey14 12-1STARCRAFT (NZ) Luca Cumani Pat Valenzuela
Runner Assessments

No1 Rock Hard Ten - Superbly bred by Kris S out of a Mr Prospector mare and is a winner 7 of 11 in it's short career to date. Has won last 4 starts on end at Group 2 and Group 1 level and has really came of age of late. 2 starts ago annexed the Santa Anita Handicap at Group 1 level defeating Congrats and Borrego 1.7*1length with Saint Liam (pre-post favorite for this) back in 6th. Definitely rates a big chance here as one of the best local hopes on those exposed form references.

No2 Sun King - Well bred by the now Japan based sire Charismatic out of a Clever Trick mare. Is a dual Group 3 winner and also 2 back annexed the Group 2 Pennsylvania Derby by 4.5 lengths but last start was beaten 10 lengths 3rd by Borrego giving it a rating well below Rock Hard Ten who is a 2 length better horse than Borrego. Hard to see it figuring here on that exposed form.

No3 Choctaw Nation - Averagely bred by Louis Quatorze out of a Well Decorated mare and comes into this with consistent form but slightly below the best of the local hopes after finishing 3rd beaten 2 lengths by Rock Hard Ten last start and 2 back beaten 1 length by Borrego. Can't see it winning this on exposed form references.

No4 Oratorio - Superbly bred by Danehill from a Vaguely Noble mare and is over from Ireland as part of the Aiden O'Brien camp for this. Interesting to see that Oratorio has been engaged here with such strong European turf form but O'Brien is a master conditioner and does know what he is doing. His last 9 starts have all been in Group 1 company and is a triple Group 1 winner including 2 starts back at Leopardstown over Motivator in the Irish Champion Stakes. A form reference of importance to line up the Europeans against the USA contingent can be taken through Rock Hard Ten beating Grand Reward by 3 lengths in The Santa Anita Handicap and earlier in Grand Rewards career when in a similar vain of form it was beaten 6 lengths by Bachelor Duke in the Irish 2000 Guineas with Azamour rating 5 lengths in front of it and Grey Swallow 4 lengths in front of it and they finished a minimum 2 lengths behind Oratorio in the Irish Champion Stakes giving Oratorio a rating 3-4 lengths in front of Rock Hard Ten. As noted this is a dirt to turf form reference that can be somewhat skewed but the dirt margin to turf margin for Grand Reward is smaller on the dirt so I am prepared to take it along with the fact that O'Brien is a very astute mentor as previously mentioned. Oratorio shapes as a very major chance here on that basis.

No5 Perfect Drift - Very well bred by Dynaformer out of a Naskra mare and comes into this 2 starts ago finishing 0.5 lengths behind Borrego and has also been beaten convincingly by Saint Liam twice in recent starts so hared to have here on that exposed form basis.

No6 Sir Shackleton - Very well bred by Miswaki out of a Star De Naskra mare. Last start was 2 lengths 2nd to Saint Liam at Group 1 level and over its last 6 starts all at Group 1 and 2 level has failed to win so hard to see it figuring here in its strongest test to date.

No7 Super Frolic - Well bred by Pine Bluff out of a Mt Livermore mare. 2 starts ago took on Group 1 company for the first time and was beaten 5.2 lengths at Del Mar by Borrego and Perfect Drift in the Pacific Classic. Last start found best form winning at Group 2 level but the form out of that race seems suspect with no noted improvement so prepared to dismiss here.

No8 Suave - Superbly bred by A.P Indy out of a Citidancer mare. Consistent type who has always been there abouts in Group 1 and 2 company since it's 3yo year but always seems to find a few better than it. Has been beaten between 2-4 lengths consistently of late by Borrego, Saint Liam and Rock Hard Ten. On that basis hard to see it getting past all 3 of those that are also engaged here. Prepared to dismiss.

No9 Flower Alley - Well bred 3yo lightly raced colt by Distorted Humor out of a Lycius mare. Seems to have found career best form 2 and 3 starts back winning at Group 2 level then 2 back repeated dose winning at Group 1 level when annexing the Travers Stakes at Saratoga. That day defeated Roman Ruler 3rd by 5.2 lengths and next start Roman Ruler finished 2nd to Rock Hard Ten beaten only 1 length thus giving Flower Alley a 4 length better rating than Rock Hard Ten through the Roman Ruler form reference. Both horses had every chance that day and Flower alley's win was full of merit especially considering top liner Bellamy Road finished 2nd making the form out of the race even stronger. Another form reference from that race through Don't Get Mad who was 4th suggests that Flower alley rates 4 lengths better than Giacomo for the run and earlier in Flower alley's career it was beaten 9 lengths by Giacomo so it further enhances the point that Flower Alley's win was full of merit with no excuses for the others in The Travers Stakes. If Flower alley is a true 4 lengths better horse than Rock Hard Ten which we are prepared to accept than that brings it in equal to 1 length in front of Oratorio and on that basis is a very serious contender here.

No10 Jack Sullivan - Well bred by Belong To Me out of a Devil's Bag mare. Has been sent here for this race on the basis of its 9 length 4th to Roses In May when racing in Dubai before the English flat season. Roses In May rates 3 lengths below Saint Liam so it is hard to see Jack Sullivan playing any major role here and is only Group 2 to Group 3 quality in Europe as well on the turf. Prepared to dismiss it chances on that basis despite the booking of Dettori.

No11 Borrego - Very well bred by El Prado out of a Strike The Gold mare. Has found career best form at its last 2 starts winning both times at Group 1 level including last start in the Jockey Club Gold Cup on this track defeating Suave and Sun King by good margins and through the Suave form reference rates just in front of Saint Liam and Rock Hard Ten. In top form at present and on that basis has minor claims to the prize here.

No12 A Bit O' Gold - Decently bred by Gold Fever (Forty Niner) out of a Corporate Report mare. So far has raced exclusively at Woodbine and comes into this as a winner at 3 of its last 4 starts in Group 2 and 3 company. Form references out of those races do look weaker than this and will have to improve considerably to figure hear against the best of these. Prepared to dismiss its chances.

No13 Saint Liam - Superbly bred by Saint Ballado out of a Quiet American mare. Has won 4 of last 6 career starts including 3 at Group 1 and 1 at Group 2 level. Bolted in last start at this track against a small field with Sir Shackleton chasing it home but the run to look at was it's win 3 back when it won the Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs also at Group 1 level. That day won 2.7*2.7 lengths defeating Eurosilver and Perfect Drift. Form references through Perfect Drift suggests it has the measure of Borrego quiet comfortably and on that basis rates a big chance as the best placed of the older local brigade here.

No14 Starcraft - Averagely bred by Soviet Star out of a Pompeii Court mare. Originally raced in Australia where it won the Australian Derby as a 3yo and also finished 3rd in The Cox Plate as a 3yo behind Savabeel. Has campaigned in Europe this flat season winning its last two at Group 1 level. 2 back ventured to France winning over 1 mile at Longchamp defeating Whipper who was 4th that day 3 lengths behind Starcraft and the start prior Whipper was beaten 1.3 lengths by Dubawi. Starcraft then won again last start in The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Newmarket over a mile defeating Dubawi 0.7 lengths franking the form out of the French win the start prior through the Whipper form reference. That form reference gives Starcraft a 0.3 to 1 length better rating than Oratorio which puts it right in this with a major chance. Connections are very confident it will handle the surface and there is no reason to doubt them. On that basis it has to be included in the major chances here.

Final Betting Assessment - Once again another very good quality betting race and because the thoughts are around that the Europeans won't handle the dirt good value is available right across all of our major chances. We have decided to lean with lightly raced local colt Flower Alley on top here and put it in for 1st and it rates equal with Starcraft who gets in for 2nd but Flower Alley should get the better run in transit and that may be the telling factor. Flower Alley is 10/1 pre-post and well over the odds and is more like a 9/2 chance in a very open wide betting race. Starcraft is 12/1 pre-post and is more like a 5/1 chance so you can back both for a result across the two of them. Oratorio looks the next best and gets in for 3rd pick and at 10/1 also represents good value. Next best are Saint Liam and Borrego who are both shorter than their real value and should be 6/1 between each on the 4th line of betting. For those looking to lay in this race the value lay is Rock Hard Ten who is 7/2 2nd favorite pre-post and looks more like a 8/1 to 9/1 chance in this field. For those interested in playing the exotics box the top 3 picks for 1st and add in Saint Liam and Borrego for 2nd and 3rd and you should score a very nice trifecta (first 3 to the post in correct order).

Good luck and happy punting, a lot of big value winners could be found on what shapes as a great day of betting in general.

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Juvenile fillies winner at 6.70 and Sprint winner at 25.90 so far on top with 3 events left to run!!!! Definite level stakes profit achieved.