cnollfan
10-28-2005, 02:09 AM
Fillies
I like Along The Sea. She was close to Adieu last time and could benefit from a likely faster pace and the addition of blinkers at Castellano's suggestion. Also like Ex Caelis, who rallied into paceless race at Keeneland. Don't know what to make of Folklore.
Juvenile -- no opinions of note.
F&M Turf
I like Intercontinental :) , who looks like the lone speed. Don't like Ouija Board. Last year when she won she came into the race off a strong third in the Arc and two Group I wins before that. This year she got beat 29 lengths and then won an obscure Group 3.
Sprint
I like Imperialism :) , whose company lines are full of Borrego, Rock Hard Ten, and Smarty Jones. Maybe 6 furlongs is too short but most of his wins are sprinting and plenty of classy routers have won this race. Lost in the Fog has company lines that are mostly unrecognizable. Also, he's been able to run the first quarter in :22 or slower every time except once this year. I don't like Elusive Jazz (five tries to clear NW2X conditions), Silver Train (phony first quarter in the Jerome) or Taste of Paradise (everything was perfect last time). Don't know what to make of Wildcat Heir.
Mile -- nothing of note.
Distaff
Interested in three price horses:
Island Fashion doesn't have a padded record -- she's run in 19 Grade I races. Decent try last year under Kerwin John, who was probably overmatched as a rider in a BC race.
Hollywood Story has similarities to Borrego and Giacomo, a California closer who could never get up in time versus slow paces, then heads East and gets a faster pace.
In the Gold, although just a 3-year-old, is a Zito Grade I winner pointing for a specific race, something Birdstone showed he was good at.
Ashado has been a wonderful horse but she's getting too erratic for my taste in favorites. Happy Ticket tipped her hand last time and won't be attractive odds for a horse with so many Louisiana-bred sprints in her past.
Turf
Scirocco :) shows a pattern I like -- chases Bago across the pond despite losing to him and pays a steep supplemental entry fee to do so. Similarities to Wilko last year. Gun Salute also looks too high. Two horses have beaten English Channel recently, Gun Salute and Shakespeare, but one of them is 3-1 and the other is 20-1.
Classic
Sun King :) gets a great draw in post 2 with all the other quasi-speed horses on the outside. With the race starting in the middle of the curve, that's a significant edge. The only catch is that after the first easy quarter mile, Sun King :( has to hang on for another mile against horses that are a lot better than he is. I'll probably key him in the exotics with the logical contenders.
I like Along The Sea. She was close to Adieu last time and could benefit from a likely faster pace and the addition of blinkers at Castellano's suggestion. Also like Ex Caelis, who rallied into paceless race at Keeneland. Don't know what to make of Folklore.
Juvenile -- no opinions of note.
F&M Turf
I like Intercontinental :) , who looks like the lone speed. Don't like Ouija Board. Last year when she won she came into the race off a strong third in the Arc and two Group I wins before that. This year she got beat 29 lengths and then won an obscure Group 3.
Sprint
I like Imperialism :) , whose company lines are full of Borrego, Rock Hard Ten, and Smarty Jones. Maybe 6 furlongs is too short but most of his wins are sprinting and plenty of classy routers have won this race. Lost in the Fog has company lines that are mostly unrecognizable. Also, he's been able to run the first quarter in :22 or slower every time except once this year. I don't like Elusive Jazz (five tries to clear NW2X conditions), Silver Train (phony first quarter in the Jerome) or Taste of Paradise (everything was perfect last time). Don't know what to make of Wildcat Heir.
Mile -- nothing of note.
Distaff
Interested in three price horses:
Island Fashion doesn't have a padded record -- she's run in 19 Grade I races. Decent try last year under Kerwin John, who was probably overmatched as a rider in a BC race.
Hollywood Story has similarities to Borrego and Giacomo, a California closer who could never get up in time versus slow paces, then heads East and gets a faster pace.
In the Gold, although just a 3-year-old, is a Zito Grade I winner pointing for a specific race, something Birdstone showed he was good at.
Ashado has been a wonderful horse but she's getting too erratic for my taste in favorites. Happy Ticket tipped her hand last time and won't be attractive odds for a horse with so many Louisiana-bred sprints in her past.
Turf
Scirocco :) shows a pattern I like -- chases Bago across the pond despite losing to him and pays a steep supplemental entry fee to do so. Similarities to Wilko last year. Gun Salute also looks too high. Two horses have beaten English Channel recently, Gun Salute and Shakespeare, but one of them is 3-1 and the other is 20-1.
Classic
Sun King :) gets a great draw in post 2 with all the other quasi-speed horses on the outside. With the race starting in the middle of the curve, that's a significant edge. The only catch is that after the first easy quarter mile, Sun King :( has to hang on for another mile against horses that are a lot better than he is. I'll probably key him in the exotics with the logical contenders.