DrugSalvastore
10-28-2005, 01:56 AM
The past two years, I've done what I like to call 'My Breeder's Cup Losers List'
Basically, I just trash horses who I think figure to be the most overrated plays in each race. Horses on my Loser's List have gone 1-for-16 over the last two years, and 1-for-7 when the Loser List horse was a post time favorite. Only Sweet Catomine has won off my Loser List the last two years. So, I'm probably due to humiliate myself this year!!!
JUV FILLIES- Adieu is 4-for-5 lifetime, a Grade 1 winner over the track, a very honest and consistant type, and a Pletcher/JRV horse. She'll take a lot of money because of that---but I think Folklore and Wild Fit will drowned her at this distance.
JUVENILE- Henny Hughes has consistantly run big figures, and has been talked about as a top 2yo ever since July. He set a ruthless early pace, and finished a game, big figure 2nd in the Champagne. He will take money. But, this race is absolutely loaded with other speed types...and he will get totally fried this time.
F & M TURF- I guess, because of the high probability of soft ground, Wonder Again is becoming a very trendy pick to win this race. Newsflash, Wonder Again is a decrepit old has-been who hasn't won a race in a very long time. She's lost each of her last six races by only three lengths or less--but that's because she's lacked the knockout punch in the lane. She's a much better finisher at nine furlongs--and because of that, I'll be stunned if she wins. I look for her to be in a threatening position off the far turn, but once again, get out kicked through the lane.
SPRINT- As much as I want to go after Lost in the Fog, he's genuinely the most likely winner of this subpar BC Sprint race, so that's out of the question. Taste of Paradice won the Vosburgh with a 110 Beyer, he'll take money because of that, but he's a strong play against. This horse has a history of jumping up and winning as a stunning longshot. He won the Grade 2 San Diego Cap at 37-to-1 odds, the Grade 3 Vernon Underwood at 26-to-1 odds, to go along with his win in the Grade 1 Vosburgh at 26-to-1 odds. He's a wonderfully neat horse who jumps up when you least expect it, but this 6 year-old has never ran back-to-back triple digit Beyer's in the same season. He also has failed to hit the board after each of his last 5 wins. not for me!
MILE- Leriodesanimaux is a horse I was gushing praise over after his SIZZLING and DAZZLING win in the Inglewood Handicap in the Supersonic final time of 1:38.40 for 8.5 furlongs. Since that win last year, he's captured five consecutive Graded Stakes races, and he derservingly holds the crown as "best miler in the land." It's kind of silly to pick against such a talented freak who hasn't lost in nearly two years---but this horse is going to get taken to school by Artie Schiller in the Mile.
DISTAFF- Ashado is a very tactically gifted horse, who has a very tactically gifted rider. The jockey/horse combo has teamed up for several perfect trip victories in many big races over the past three years. This is a 7 time Grade 1 winner with impressive victories ranging in distances from 5.5 furlongs-to-1 1/4 miles--it's hard not to like this filly....BUT, pretty darn easy to play against her in this Distaff. She's not quite as sharp this year, and her three Grade 1 wins this year....well, all of them were performances much less impressive than looked. I'm sure she'll give herself another perfect trip in this race--but, I don't think the current version of Ashado is good enough to win this race, even with that perfect trip.
TURF- Shirocco is 20-to-1 on the ML, but he's being bet more aggresively overseas, so he figures to go off at much less than that---and I hate his chances. He's run twice in races around left-handed turns, one of them he lost as a 1-to-20 favorite, the other time, he finished 3rd in a German Group 1. It's horses like him who typically struggle when they come to America.
CLASSIC- I hate the chances of a lot of horses in this race. I actually bet Borrego in the Big Cap against Rock Hard Ten and Saint Liam--but his last two wins are mirages. Old 'hard luck' Borrego, finally found two races that collapsed for him, he's still the same old horse. St. Liam is a Dutrow Jr. miracle horse, he has VERY suspect breeding for this distance, and the 13 hole isn't exactly a plus. Starcraft has no dirt breeding, and to me, doesn't look like the type who will love a ten furlong dirt race. I guess I'll take Borrego as my loser list horse for this race...but others are as deserving.
Any other brave soul's willing to give the loser list a try?? Imagine how stupid I'll look if all of them run good!
Basically, I just trash horses who I think figure to be the most overrated plays in each race. Horses on my Loser's List have gone 1-for-16 over the last two years, and 1-for-7 when the Loser List horse was a post time favorite. Only Sweet Catomine has won off my Loser List the last two years. So, I'm probably due to humiliate myself this year!!!
JUV FILLIES- Adieu is 4-for-5 lifetime, a Grade 1 winner over the track, a very honest and consistant type, and a Pletcher/JRV horse. She'll take a lot of money because of that---but I think Folklore and Wild Fit will drowned her at this distance.
JUVENILE- Henny Hughes has consistantly run big figures, and has been talked about as a top 2yo ever since July. He set a ruthless early pace, and finished a game, big figure 2nd in the Champagne. He will take money. But, this race is absolutely loaded with other speed types...and he will get totally fried this time.
F & M TURF- I guess, because of the high probability of soft ground, Wonder Again is becoming a very trendy pick to win this race. Newsflash, Wonder Again is a decrepit old has-been who hasn't won a race in a very long time. She's lost each of her last six races by only three lengths or less--but that's because she's lacked the knockout punch in the lane. She's a much better finisher at nine furlongs--and because of that, I'll be stunned if she wins. I look for her to be in a threatening position off the far turn, but once again, get out kicked through the lane.
SPRINT- As much as I want to go after Lost in the Fog, he's genuinely the most likely winner of this subpar BC Sprint race, so that's out of the question. Taste of Paradice won the Vosburgh with a 110 Beyer, he'll take money because of that, but he's a strong play against. This horse has a history of jumping up and winning as a stunning longshot. He won the Grade 2 San Diego Cap at 37-to-1 odds, the Grade 3 Vernon Underwood at 26-to-1 odds, to go along with his win in the Grade 1 Vosburgh at 26-to-1 odds. He's a wonderfully neat horse who jumps up when you least expect it, but this 6 year-old has never ran back-to-back triple digit Beyer's in the same season. He also has failed to hit the board after each of his last 5 wins. not for me!
MILE- Leriodesanimaux is a horse I was gushing praise over after his SIZZLING and DAZZLING win in the Inglewood Handicap in the Supersonic final time of 1:38.40 for 8.5 furlongs. Since that win last year, he's captured five consecutive Graded Stakes races, and he derservingly holds the crown as "best miler in the land." It's kind of silly to pick against such a talented freak who hasn't lost in nearly two years---but this horse is going to get taken to school by Artie Schiller in the Mile.
DISTAFF- Ashado is a very tactically gifted horse, who has a very tactically gifted rider. The jockey/horse combo has teamed up for several perfect trip victories in many big races over the past three years. This is a 7 time Grade 1 winner with impressive victories ranging in distances from 5.5 furlongs-to-1 1/4 miles--it's hard not to like this filly....BUT, pretty darn easy to play against her in this Distaff. She's not quite as sharp this year, and her three Grade 1 wins this year....well, all of them were performances much less impressive than looked. I'm sure she'll give herself another perfect trip in this race--but, I don't think the current version of Ashado is good enough to win this race, even with that perfect trip.
TURF- Shirocco is 20-to-1 on the ML, but he's being bet more aggresively overseas, so he figures to go off at much less than that---and I hate his chances. He's run twice in races around left-handed turns, one of them he lost as a 1-to-20 favorite, the other time, he finished 3rd in a German Group 1. It's horses like him who typically struggle when they come to America.
CLASSIC- I hate the chances of a lot of horses in this race. I actually bet Borrego in the Big Cap against Rock Hard Ten and Saint Liam--but his last two wins are mirages. Old 'hard luck' Borrego, finally found two races that collapsed for him, he's still the same old horse. St. Liam is a Dutrow Jr. miracle horse, he has VERY suspect breeding for this distance, and the 13 hole isn't exactly a plus. Starcraft has no dirt breeding, and to me, doesn't look like the type who will love a ten furlong dirt race. I guess I'll take Borrego as my loser list horse for this race...but others are as deserving.
Any other brave soul's willing to give the loser list a try?? Imagine how stupid I'll look if all of them run good!