Valuist
10-27-2005, 10:10 AM
Horses that are 10-1 or higher (morning line) that I think can be a part of the tri or exacta:
Juvie Filly- Ex Caelis- hasn't done much wrong. At Kee, she was trying to run down a loose pacesetter. 14 lengths from 3rd to 4th in that race. At AP, she was part of a 1:09 4/5 6f fraction; much faster than the males 1:11 6f fraction in the Futurity later that day. Knights Templar? Last two on dirt have been tremendous. Don't think she has to have the lead to win.
Juvenile- There's two colts in here out of champion mares. One has already run on dirt (Dr. Pleasure) and the other hasn't (Ivan Denisovich). Ivan is a Grade 2 winner and Gr. 1 placed on grass and at double digit odds, I'll take my chances that this colt out of Hollywood Wildcat might be as good or even better on dirt. Even if he can't get by First Samurai, the exacta will be decent.
F & M Turf- I thought the top F & M grass race this year was the Beverly D and Angara won it and it was on soft turf. There will be give in the turf this Saturday. 20-1 is a joke. I see Mike Watchmaker is writing her off due to a poor last race. That's fine. I want the bandwagon empty. While I think Wonder Again and Ouija Board are probably the two to beat, Angara is the value in the race.
Sprint-- I ripped on Elusive Jazz thinking his Phoenix Beyer was about 5-6 points too high. Maybe it is but he didn't do it the conventional way at Kee; he made a 4 wide move on the turn which usually is death there. He's certainly sharp right now. Gygistar could be interesting as he's the "power sprinter" of this group.
Mile- Valixir is listed at 10-1 but I suspect he will go off lower than that. See DrugS's thread on him. Gorella may end up as the best value. She was really hurt by a slow pace last time and closed up the inside, which some riders said wasn't the place to be on Kee's lawn. Ran behind some monsters in Starcraft and Divine Proportions.
Distaff--still undecided here. It seems like the Distaff, save for Spain and One Dreamer, is usually chalky.
Turf--Gun Salute is a little interesting at a giant price. He likes it soft, and ran a big race running down English Channel. If he was 10-1, I wouldn't use him but 30-1 or so makes him intriguing for exactas and tris. Ace has had some good form in Europe but really no visible excuse last time. I expected him to run better last time. The price will be big this time, so maybe he's worth tossing in your gimmicks.
Classic- Surprising lack of speed in here makes Flower Alley a legit threat. He could have Pomeroyitis, that condition in which a horse runs its best races at Saratoga. Oratorio has to be considered; the connections could've went in the turf as a strong contender. One other price: Choctaw Nation. His last was pretty much a paceless race and he was finishing decently. Sometimes Mullins strikes when you don't expect it. Would not be shocked if he hit the board.
Juvie Filly- Ex Caelis- hasn't done much wrong. At Kee, she was trying to run down a loose pacesetter. 14 lengths from 3rd to 4th in that race. At AP, she was part of a 1:09 4/5 6f fraction; much faster than the males 1:11 6f fraction in the Futurity later that day. Knights Templar? Last two on dirt have been tremendous. Don't think she has to have the lead to win.
Juvenile- There's two colts in here out of champion mares. One has already run on dirt (Dr. Pleasure) and the other hasn't (Ivan Denisovich). Ivan is a Grade 2 winner and Gr. 1 placed on grass and at double digit odds, I'll take my chances that this colt out of Hollywood Wildcat might be as good or even better on dirt. Even if he can't get by First Samurai, the exacta will be decent.
F & M Turf- I thought the top F & M grass race this year was the Beverly D and Angara won it and it was on soft turf. There will be give in the turf this Saturday. 20-1 is a joke. I see Mike Watchmaker is writing her off due to a poor last race. That's fine. I want the bandwagon empty. While I think Wonder Again and Ouija Board are probably the two to beat, Angara is the value in the race.
Sprint-- I ripped on Elusive Jazz thinking his Phoenix Beyer was about 5-6 points too high. Maybe it is but he didn't do it the conventional way at Kee; he made a 4 wide move on the turn which usually is death there. He's certainly sharp right now. Gygistar could be interesting as he's the "power sprinter" of this group.
Mile- Valixir is listed at 10-1 but I suspect he will go off lower than that. See DrugS's thread on him. Gorella may end up as the best value. She was really hurt by a slow pace last time and closed up the inside, which some riders said wasn't the place to be on Kee's lawn. Ran behind some monsters in Starcraft and Divine Proportions.
Distaff--still undecided here. It seems like the Distaff, save for Spain and One Dreamer, is usually chalky.
Turf--Gun Salute is a little interesting at a giant price. He likes it soft, and ran a big race running down English Channel. If he was 10-1, I wouldn't use him but 30-1 or so makes him intriguing for exactas and tris. Ace has had some good form in Europe but really no visible excuse last time. I expected him to run better last time. The price will be big this time, so maybe he's worth tossing in your gimmicks.
Classic- Surprising lack of speed in here makes Flower Alley a legit threat. He could have Pomeroyitis, that condition in which a horse runs its best races at Saratoga. Oratorio has to be considered; the connections could've went in the turf as a strong contender. One other price: Choctaw Nation. His last was pretty much a paceless race and he was finishing decently. Sometimes Mullins strikes when you don't expect it. Would not be shocked if he hit the board.