New Horse racing product

[dancingbrave]

Got an e-mail yesterday from tradesports.com saying that they are launching a US horse racing pool product with 5% take out and guaranteed liquidity. Yesterday I was on and only picked the one winner but they paid $8.84 for $2 compared to $8 at the track. All returns were 10 - 12% higher than the track. I guess that makes sense if you take out 5% compared to 14 - 20% as the tracks do.

I saw there was $100k available to bet every race and a $50 bet hardly changed the odds at all.

Just think this thing has to be huge - only win pools at the moment but more to follow apparently.

[garyoz]

LOL--Another first time poster tout. How stupid.

[dancingbrave]

Hey, I'm not a tout and do the majority of my betting with Pinny and Betfair but just thought to mention a new product which should be of interest to horse players.

Take it or leave it - what do i care.

[Tom]

Must be a good thing...you ran right out and registered here after one win!:eek:

[dancingbrave]

It really doesn't matter to me how many winners i picked or not - getting better payouts does.

Till now the the best outs for horse racing were Pinnacle and Betfair (most of you can't bet with) but if a product comes along that offers better odds than the best out there - don't you think it is of interest?

If you're not open to the idea that you can get a better deal than you're getting - fine.

The product is far from perfect in that it is limited to win only at the moment but I have the foresight to see something innovative and that has value.

I was talking up betfair when it first came out too on rx because I think you guys in the US get a pretty raw deal from the sportsbooks as a whole. Your choice at the end of day.

[JustRalph]

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

[rokitman]

Thanx for the info, DB! I don't give a sh!t if you're a tout or not, that was information I want to know.

[dancingbrave]

you're welcome rokitman.

[speculus]

After studying pools collection from most parts of the world, I came to the conclusion that I thought fit to incorporate as my signature on this popular board. Your post just shows that I was bang on target. Race clubs will HAVE to HEED my signature advice if they want to survive.

[twindouble]

After studying pools collection from most parts of the world, I came to the conclusion that I thought fit to incorporate as my signature on this popular board. Your post just shows that I was bang on target. Race clubs will HAVE to HEED my signature advice if they want to survive.


speculus, I don't think the racing industry can become a Wall Mart type operation, the product isn't made in some third world country for peanuts. Have you ever done a study on what it takes to operate a track today or what kind of purce structure is needed to keep horses running? In my opinion the biggest mistake the tracks made was selling their product to cheap, if that should change then a reduction in take out just might be in order.

You'll never see a 3 percent take out, like you'll never see gas go for 95 cents a gal.

Good luck,

T.D.

[dancingbrave]

speculus - agree with you entirely - If the tracks were going 3% products like this would never happen.

However we live in the real world and know tracks will never go below 10% in our lifetimes, so for all of us that want a fair deal for our money we have to look for these opportunities.

[kenwoodallpromos]

That stands for unidentified advertising object- You jerks should be in the majors you hit and run so much!
Of course everybody wants a lower takeout- but they do not like touts that come ready-made with the ad content just like I wrote as an exercise in High School Business class!
If your only business on PA is business, you have no business on PA! Buy a banner from him like a REAL business would!

[GameTheory]

Rokitman is right, tout or not it's a great deal. Tradesports is a reputable place based in Ireland. A 5% liquid pool will beat Pinnacle's 7% rebate unless it really gets hammered so the liquidity (which mirrors the track odds) isn't having enough effect....

[JustRalph]

That stands for unidentified advertising object- You jerks should be in the majors you hit and run so much!
Of course everybody wants a lower takeout- but they do not like touts that come ready-made with the ad content just like I wrote as an exercise in High School Business class!
If your only business on PA is business, you have no business on PA! Buy a banner from him like a REAL business would!

Get em Ken!!! Right on! :ThmbUp:

[dancingbrave]

Game Theory - Just for all of your satisfaction, i am not a tout but recognise a great deal when I see it. i wouldn't have mentioned this if this was from costaracingfromhell.com or any dubious outfits. I've had an account for years and the 0-100 stuff on the horses hasn't really done too much but this is different as the liquidity is there all the time.


As for your scenario of a horse getting hammered to below track odds - can't see it happening and if it does there has to be big value on the others as the prices drift. I'm not a big player by any means but my $50 bets don't seem to do anything to the odds.

[cj]

Pretty neat stuff, do you know if they plan on offering more than New York and SoCal in the future? Also, are these like separate betting pools, independent of actual on track payouts?

[dancingbrave]

cj - they mirror the track pool for a fixed amount. Not sure, it may be $20-$30K - you can ask them. These are the virtual bets and on top of that the bets from customers are added to form the big pool with 5% take.

It is not a pool where all bets cover each other, they have liquidity providers who take the risk and put up the money available to bet which seems about $100k a race.

As for other tracks, surely they will be doing other tracks and pools too.

[Tom Barrister]

The liquidity providers will be fine as long as they stick to the bigs, NYRA, SoCal, South Florida.

Well, NYRA and SoCal....

Well, NYRA and SoCal for races with purses of $250,000 or higher....

Well, NYRA and SoCal for races with purses of $250,000 or higher and Jeff Mullins and Richard Dutrow don't have any entries in the race....

[cj]

With Pinnacle dropping NYRA rebates to 4%, there is an even bigger edge to betting this way.

[garyoz]

IMHO, they will get killed by wiseguys and the bettors will end up holding the bag. How likely will the betting mirror NYRA or any other track? If it doesn't that 5% could evaporate quickly.

This isn't the NYSE where liquidity requirements are enforced. Even then, the specialist system doesn't work that well. The investors providing "liquidity" have no reason to stay the course if the market turns against them.

[dancingbrave]

The bigger the total pool gets the smaller the risk is to these liquidity providers as the bets by customers will start to cover themselves but initially, sure they are going to take a pounding. But, hey it's not a sportsbook it's an exchange so they aren't taking the risk so there's no payment issues.

If the liquidity providers get beaten up, you'll see the available amount to bet disappear but at the moment it's $100k a race.

[JackS]

Still trying to understand. Based on DB's post the payout appears to be track odds plus 10% considering Belmonts approx 15%(?) take. Or is this a seperate pool that has nothing to do with actual on track odds?

[JackS]

I think DB answered my question. Payoffs are track odds plus 10%.( For Belmont win wagers.)

[dancingbrave]

JackS - it is not straight track odds +10-12%. They create a virtual pool which exactly matches the track but on top of that they add the bets by their customers so you get the scenario where one horse maybe track odds +8% and another is track odds +15%. People aren't going to horses below track odds as it doesn't make sense and because of the 5% take out if a horse gets to track odds others will be 20%+ better than at the track which by market forces will mean they will shorten pushing the others out.

[midnight]

dancingbrave: you certainly have a lot of knowledge about how the Tradesports pools work, after only one day in operation.

As near as I can figure, the pools will mirror true odds (odds without a takeout) minus 5% (2.5% until after the BC). The bigger the track's takeout on win bets, the better the deal is. If $100,000 is provided per race, and the liquidity providers' seeding is mirroring the track betting (by the same proportional amounts as at the track), then up to a $100,000 payout from the winner will be at the true odds minus 5%/2.5%.

As an example, suppose the true odds of a horse at Belmont are 19-1 (20 for 1). The tote odds would be 17.2-1. The Tradesports odds would be (if 5% is used) 18-1, or 5% lower. At 2.5% they would be 18.75-1. In this case, up to at least $5,000 total can be bet on this horse in the Tradesports pool before the odds will go down, since the payout on that would equal the $100,000 furnished by the liquidity providers. If, for example, $10,000 were bet on the horse, and nothing out of line anywhere else, the odds would come down to 9-1, minus the 5%, or 8.5-1.

Since the liquidity providers aren't stupid (or won't be for long), they probably have mechanisms in place to prevent getting drilled by the wise guys. One possibility would be a bot that triggers on a large bet on a longshot and bets that money directly into the mutuel pools via a rebate shop. They still have to pay the bet off, but they do so at true odds minus 5%, they get the track payout back, and they collect from the rebate shop, which minimizes the loss. Also, you can be sure that the liquidity providers are working directly with Tradesports and will be flagging accounts which are "net winners" in the pools, particularly large bets on high-odds horses. They may end up betting all the money on such horses into the mutuel pools, which would mean that they would be taking down almost everything else in that Tradesports pool, should the horse in question win.

The above is just my view on it, and may or may not be the way it's actually set up.

[Sabe]

'brave is peddlin' his wares over at e-ponies as well - must be pretty important to him to share this wealth of information!

[dancingbrave]

midnight - as i said earlier i think the virtual pool is around 20-30K with the real bets going on top of that. The $100k of liquidity provided by the liquidity providers is just the amount they are prepared to put up. No one is going to put 50K on a horse as adding that to the virtual pool will flatten the odds way below track odds so in a way the pool partly offers protection to them. It is certain IMO they will lose early on but if say the pool gets to say $200k the $170-$180k of real bets will take care of themselves virtually.

[Vegas711]

It is best to stick with U.S. based internet betting. More secure feeling that my money will not vanish.I just do not trust anyone outside the U.S. there have been too many stories of people putting money into these offshore accounts and never seeing a dime come back.

[xfile]

Got an e-mail yesterday from tradesports.com saying that they are launching a US horse racing pool product with 5% take out and guaranteed liquidity. Yesterday I was on and only picked the one winner but they paid $8.84 for $2 compared to $8 at the track. All returns were 10 - 12% higher than the track. I guess that makes sense if you take out 5% compared to 14 - 20% as the tracks do.

I saw there was $100k available to bet every race and a $50 bet hardly changed the odds at all.

Just think this thing has to be huge - only win pools at the moment but more to follow apparently.

That site looks interesting. I'm gonna dig deeper and check it out. On the surface it appears they are being very agressive with payouts. Personally I'd rather have higher payout % than a rebate....thanks for the info :cool:

[dancingbrave]

kenwood - dancing brave was a champion 3 year old back in europe when I was younger. Came over to the breeders and went off at 2/5 and got stuffed. It was an amazing beast that showed the most electryfying turn of speed for a mile and halfer that i have ever seen in the Prix de l'Arc - hence my username.

(Kenwood's post has been deleted for obvious as well as OFF TOPIC reasons.....PA)

[dancingbrave]

Vegas - if you mean youbet fine - pay your 15%+ and get a good but expensive product.

European books are much safer than your Caribbean, Central American equivalents as there is much more regulation over there and exchanges are far more secure as they are not talking the risks.

[Nickle]

I have an account there but did not try it for horses.

[dancingbrave]

It's new - they always had the 0-100 stuff - still do but that isn't very popular apart from big races. The new product has strong liquidity every race.

[ezpace]

Is a there a very early cutoff time before post time where the money can be dribbled back into the NY or SC pool??

[dancingbrave]

From what i see they have had the pools open right till the off.

[ezpace]

thanks Dancing Brave and welcome to PA forum. Best forum and Best managed Horse racing forum on the web. ......

PA will buy me a day old bagel in Saratoga next year for that plug . . ;)

[speculus]

Have you ever done a study on what it takes to operate a track today or what kind of purce structure is needed to keep horses running? In my opinion the biggest mistake the tracks made was selling their product to cheap, if that should change then a reduction in take out just might be in order.

You'll never see a 3 percent take out, like you'll never see gas go for 95 cents a gal.

Good luck,

T.D.

What we must understand is that horse racing is the ONLY industry that is mainly subsidised by gamblers' money. The stakes and purses, upkeep and maintenance, every penny that is spent by the track management HAS TO COME from gamblers' money, or from the takeout that is skimmed off from bets.

Also, you will never find exception to the "LOW TAKEOUT - HIGH TURNOVER" and "HIGH TAKEOUT - LOW TURNOVER" rule. What I have observed is that the turnover starts rising with geometrical progression when the takeout starts dipping below 10%, and literally skyrockets--grows exponentially--once it crosses the 8% barrier on the downward side. With every percentage point less (from 8 to 7 to 6 to 5 etc), the addition to the pools is mind-boggling. The rebate shops were the first to understand this principle and capitalize on it, but when Betfair came along, the tracks now have a new benchmark to compete with. And IMHO, that can be only 3% on win, place and show.

[twindouble]

"What I have observed is that the turnover starts rising with geometrical progression when the takeout starts dipping below 10%, and literally skyrockets--grows exponentially--once it crosses the 8% barrier on the downward side. With every percentage point less (from 8 to 7 to 6 to 5 etc), the addition to the pools is mind-boggling."



Speculus; Are you saying the above would bring in new money for the industry as a whole or only those tracks that drop their take out rate? If it's new money, where is it coming from?


T.D.

[mikeb]

Can anyone shed some light on why there is no trifecta payout board?
They wouldn't be robbing the public,or would they. hmmm

hwnn.:rolleyes:

[midnight]

There's no trifecta payout board because of the logistics. For example, to show it 'exacta style' in a 12 horse field would require 12x11 screens, or 132 screens (1-2 with, 1-3 with, etc.). It could be done by runner (example, 1-2, 1-3, 1-4) across columns so that one runner with all-all would display on the screen, but the display would be cramped with 12 horses or more, and since it would still require a screen for each runner, each screen couldn't be up there long enough to be analyzed, except perhaps by a computer, and even then, almost every combination would be so imprecise that a few dollars could make a big difference.

What COULD be done is something that some of the greyhound tracks do: show the total amount bet on each horse in the trifecta in the win spot. It also wouldn't be hard to have four columns with the the amounts bet on each horse for first, second, third, and cumulative (all three places) in the trifectas.

[Vegas711]

Vegas - if you mean youbet fine - pay your 15%+ and get a good but expensive product.

European books are much safer than your Caribbean, Central American equivalents as there is much more regulation over there and exchanges are far more secure as they are not talking the risks.

What country are they located in?

I was mainly talking about the caribbean.

[dancingbrave]

They are located in Ireland.

[speculus]

Speculus; Are you saying the above would bring in new money for the industry as a whole or only those tracks that drop their take out rate? If it's new money, where is it coming from?
T.D.

The money I am talking about right now is that which is going to rebate shops, sports books, betfair and outfits like that, besides illegal bookmakers (in some countries, like mine). And of course there will be more and more gambling money coming to horse racing that would otherwise be going to "other" gambling markets, especially sports like football etc.

Also, since betting is predominantly linked with psychology, you will always get more money out of the same gambler if you offer him better odds, since he views the same activity now as "less risky" and hence worth "more money". This principle we anyway see in action when there is a carried over pool. Simply by offering better odds (thanks to the brought forward amount), gamblers community as a whole shells out much more money than normal and the pool size swells considerably.

Another source of increase may come from this situation: many horses that don't receive massive action (due to unattractive odds rendered by 17% takeout) will suddenly become "irresistible bets" to many among us, and when they are bet, that action in turn will make other horses more attractive to others, and thus a clear effect of what is called "snowballing" can be seen in action.

[dancingbrave]

How'd everyone do on BC?

Folklore $7.36 and Stevie Wonderboy $12.40 were my only winners though i thought i was really unlucky on Whipper and was kicking myself that i didn't do Shirocco - that was obvious value.

[midnight]

Commercial's getting old....

[midnight]

It appears that tradesports has already gotten rid of the horse racing section. Apparently the wiseguys already scared the "liquidity providrers" away. No surprise there.

[rokitman]

It appears that tradesports has already gotten rid of the horse racing section. Apparently the wiseguys already scared the "liquidity providrers" away. No surprise there.
Gotten rid of? Why do you say that? Just went and looked and it's there.

[dancingbrave]

Midnight - I don't know what you are looking at. The horse racing pool seems to be doing very well. Generally 3 meetings daily and over a $100k available per race. I think you have looked at the wrong section. They have got rid of their 0-100 horse racing as everyone has moved over to the pool betting as the liquidity and better odds are there.

Here's the direct link www.tradehorseracing.com (http://www.tradehorseracing.com) - take a look and judge for yourselves.

[midnight]

I found out what I wanted to know. Thanks.