Breeders Cup Analysis

[DrugSalvastore]

Here is my analysis for the Breeders Cup races. It's done in kind of a newspaper tout style.


Juvenile Fillies. DrugS selections: 10-1

#10 WILD FIT was visually impressive while scoring a sharp maiden win, and Grade 1 score, in her two starts at Del Mar. She suffered a defeat at the hands of perfect trip Diamond Omi in the Oak Leaf, which was her first start around two turns. Looked unpolished in the Oak Leaf, and should really appreciate the one turn 8.5 furlong distance. Drawn nicely.

#1 FOLKLORE is probably the most talented filly in the race. She is unfavorably drawn for her first start beyond seven furlongs---but a big threat regardless. I really think this is a two horse race...and I'll side with Wild Fit.

* Pedigree Notes- #4 Diamond Omi is a half sister to 1996 BC Juvenile Fillies champion Storm Song. #5 Knight's Templar's dam won the 1986 Prioress Stakes over this track.

Juvenile. DrugS selections: 9-12-1

This is such a treacherous race---it's the kind of race that inspires you to try to do something clever...so I feel like such a total loser for picking #9 FIRST SAMURAI. Why in the name of God, would me of all people, want anything to do with a horse stretching out, who ran a 14 flat final 1/8th in the Hopeful, and a trotter like 27 3/5 final quarter in the Champagne??? On top of that, the entire female family of First Samurai is very Sprint oriented. You can't take a short price on this horse---but I think he's the most likely winner because, just like in the Hopeful and Champagne, there isn't anyone to pick him up late.

#12 STEVIE WONDERBOY thrived closing into a very fast pace in the Del Mar Futurity, BELIEVE me when I say he will have a similar pace setup here! This is the kind of horse that makes his own trouble though, and in a 14 horse field, jockey Garret Gomez is going to have to ride an excellent race here.

#1 SUPERFLY desperately needs to be taken back off-the-pace. Trainer Nick Zito moronically praised Coa's ride in the Champagne after he had this horse relatively close to an absurdly fast pace. With a jockey switch to Ramon Dominguez and a Zito comment saying he would take this horse back and make one-run, I would have got brave and picked this horse. This full brother to the painfully one-paced plodder Andromeda's Hero needs a change in tactics to be effective here.

Pedigree Notes- #1 Superfly is a full to Belmont runner-up Andromeda's Hero, #2 Ivan Denisovich is a half brother to Breeders Cup Mile winner War Chant, and his dam is 1993 Breeders Cup Distaff winner Hollywood Wildcat. #4 Set Alight is a half to 2001 Shuvee winner Apple of Kent. #8 Sorcerer's Stone is a half to Grade 1 winning multi-millionaire Dramatic Gold. #9 First Samurai's dam is a half sister to top filly sprinter Sky Blue Pink. #10 Henny Hughes's 2nd dam is top filly sprinter Shortly. #14 Dr. Pleasure is out of champion mare and 1999 Breeders Cup Distaff winner Beautiful Pleasure. BP is also a half sister to Grade 1 winning multimillionaire Mecke.

FILLY & MARE TURF. DrugS Selections: 2-13-10

#2 FILM MAKER consistently finds trouble and is almost as difficult to ride as fellow lunatic Intercontinental. P.Val gets a 2nd shot with her, she drew a favorable inside post, and she figures to offer excellent value. Was 2nd in this race last year, and may turn the tables on Ouija Board this time.

#13 OUIJA BOARD is the defending champion. Her best moment came also came around left-handed turns when she won the English Oaks by 7 lengths. But, she's had to suffer through physical problems this year, and post position 13 and a short price don't excite.

#10 INTERCONTINENTAL can't stay 10 furlongs unless she makes the lead. If Bejarano gets her an un-pressured early lead---she might surprise.

SPRINT. DrugS Selections: 4-7-6

#4 BATTLE WON is very quick early, and can finish when he is on his game. He's the best alternative when it comes to beating Lost in the Fog. Exited a similar turf loss to score an impressive win on the Ky Derby undercard. Taking a stab.

#7 LOST IN THE FOG is 10-for-10 so far, and since his maiden win at Golden Gate, he's never been a bigger price than 3-to-5 odds. He didn't exactly catch an honest group of sprinters by Breeders Cup standards---and he may take this field to school as well.

#6 WILDCAT HEIR is wickedly fast. Impressive six furlong scores in his last two outings, the latter a Grade 1 score in Maryland, and the most recent, a razor sharp, stalk-n-go, big figure victory in a stake at Monmouth. BUT, only having raced once all year bothers me.

MILE. DrugS selections: 2-10

#2 ARTIE SCHILLER is simply going to win this race. His last start was better than it looks, when he gave 8lbs to a very good horse, and narrowly lost to him. He's very well prepared for this race, he drew a favorable post, and gets an excellent style-fitting turf jockey in Gomez. I'm really excited about betting him.

#10 VALIXIR is a Euro raider who deserves a long hard look. He should ADORE North American Style racing. He's two-for-two lifetime in races run around a left handed turn, including an upset of Europe's best miler Starcraft in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes. His dam is a half sibling to 2001 Breeders Cup Mile winner Val Royal. Val Royal won his Mile over this same course. Gets top French jockey for this.

DISTAFF. DrugS selections: 2-1-9

#2 STELLAR JAYNE loves Belmont Park and should have this field at her mercy. She finished 3rd in last year's Distaff, but I really felt she was best that day, and she will make amends in here. Lightly raced this year, but she's been healthy, and this race has been her only goal all along.

#1 SOCIETY SELECTION can't get a break to save her life. Since her win in the Shuvee, she's had to suffer through three miserable trips, and a loss at Saratoga that resulted in a throat operation. She's due for some luck.

#9 HOLLYWOOD STORY was up against it from a pace standpoint last time out. She ran two sneaky good races around one-turn to start her career, and I think she will appreciate a one-turn nine furlong race. P.Val is named to ride.

TURF. DrugS selections: 3-7-5

#3 BAGO is the horse for me. He's on a four race losing streak, and his record at the distance is weak---but, watching film on him, I think this is the kind of horse who will adore a fast paced, 12 furlong, North American turf race. I like him here.

#7 SHAKESPEARE is a real exciting horse. He's capable of winning this race, but I think he's much better suited for 10 furlongs than he is for 12. I love his talent, but I'll beat him here

# 5 AZAMOUR won his first three lifetime starts around left-handed turns---all of them in Group 1 races! Two time Breeders Cup Turf winner High Chapperal is another horse from these same connections who thrived around left-handed turns in Europe. I found his last race disappointing though...and I'm willing to play against him in here.

CLASSIC. DrugS selections: 1-9-3

#1 ROCK HARD TEN has always looked like he will be a great horse. He was a monumental disappointment for trainer Jason Ormen, but since moving to the Dick Mandella barn, he's four for four with a pair of Grade 1 and 2 wins. The problem is that he hasn't exactly looked super brilliant in any of his four wins for Mandella. Sadly, he may never turn out to be the Great horse he looked like he had to be, but you don't need to be great to beat this field.

#9 Flower Alley got cooked by his own rabbit in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. There is much less early pace in this race than what was in the JCGC. This horse ran a deceptively strong race in the Kentucky Derby, and his win in the Travers at this distance was pretty solid. I wouldn't at all be surprised if he rebounded with a victory.

#3 Choctaw Nation is live at a price. He's run a few better than looked races, and I really like the prep he got in the Goodwood. He has one big sustained run, and he might get by everyone with it if the race sets up for him.

[toetoe]

DrugS,

We differ on F/M Turf, Sprint and Mile, which pick-three I will try for.

Wonder Again is my pick despite wide post.

Battle Won and Artie Schiller may get perfect trips and still lose. They're not throwouts, and I know Artie got jostled big time in last year's BC, but I like Lion Tamer and Gorella, respective. LT is not a ton of horse, but I think Pletcher has him ready to run out of his mind. Imperialism I have downgraded to backup, if not complete throwout. Gorella is not a single, but I think she's a key. The question is which Europeans really like it boggy. I think we assume they all do, and they never have firm turf over there, but it's not so simple as that.

[DrugSalvastore]

DrugS,

We differ on F/M Turf, Sprint and Mile, which pick-three I will try for.

Wonder Again is my pick despite wide post.

Battle Won and Artie Schiller may get perfect trips and still lose. They're not throwouts, and I know Artie got jostled big time in last year's BC, but I like Lion Tamer and Gorella, respective. LT is not a ton of horse, but I think Pletcher has him ready to run out of his mind.

I don't want to say that Wonder Again is a decripit old has been, but she's now deep into her six year old season, and she hasn't won a race in like one and a half years.

The same could have been said for Riskaverse, who upset the Flower Bowl at 35-to-1 odds last time. So.....

I see in the fixed odds at Pinnacle that Lion Tamer is the 2nd choice in the Breeders Cup Sprint. The horse has never won a stake race at six furlongs, he's one-for-five over the track, and he got a great pace setup in a weak Vosburgh, and still couldn't cash in. In any other year I'd trash Lion Tamer's chances in the Sprint---but this year, that division is kind of a joke, and he wouldn't surprise me. I just got quite turned off when I saw he was installed as the 2nd favorite for the race by Pinnacle yesterday night.

I'm in love with Artie Schiller. If he loses to someone other than Valixir, I will be in a state of shock.

[Valuist]

I thought I was the only one who checked European's records around LH turns. I like both Valixir and Artie in the Mile. Leroid has had a number of very good trips. Both Leroid and Artie beat Silver Tree by similar margins recently, but Leroid had the benefit of saving ground setting a nice comfortable pace while Artie had to run down a loose, slow paced Silver Tree.
Agree on Lion Tamer. He's been over-hyped and overrated ever since the 2003 Hutcheson. Disagree on Wonder Again. I think she's the one to beat in the F/M Turf.

[BarnieClockerbigal]

Artie a stone cold toss just like last year cepting that he ain't gonna be fav like he was last year.

mile--whipper is the hoss. If you Like Valixir, Whipper beat him straight up
in France. Loves the off going.

turf--If you Like Bago, you should also like Shirocco. 20-1ML is the laugh
of the day. arc runners up have a big history at Belmont and the BC.

FM turf--Ouija Board ain't losing take that to the bank.

[DrugSalvastore]

I thought I was the only one who checked European's records around LH turns. I like both Valixir and Artie in the Mile. Leroid has had a number of very good trips. Both Leroid and Artie beat Silver Tree by similar margins recently, but Leroid had the benefit of saving ground setting a nice comfortable pace while Artie had to run down a loose, slow paced Silver Tree.
Agree on Lion Tamer. He's been over-hyped and overrated ever since the 2003 Hutcheson. Disagree on Wonder Again. I think she's the one to beat in the F/M Turf.

Yea, a lot of horses who run strong in Europe, in races around left-handed turns, seem to really take to North American turf racing. I'm very surprised that so few people pay attention to that.

I agree 100% about the difference in trips and similar result regarding Artie Schiller and "Leroi" beating the common opponent Silver Tree.

As for Wonder Again--because of the weather conditions, she may become a very trendy pick for the Distaff. I'll concede that she can win on her best, but she's been consistantly losing to these horses for a while, and I just want no part of her at all. I wish you and Toetoe good luck with her.

Of the 8 Breeders Cup Races, I only picked the morning line favorite in one race, it was First Samurai, and I tried like hell to build a case for someone to beat him. The Juvenie is going to fall apart late, but even so, I don't think anyone can pick FS up.

The main thing is that we win a lot of money---this BC card was a very easy card to handicap....they typically are.

[DrugSalvastore]

mile--whipper is the hoss. If you Like Valixir, Whipper beat him straight up in France. Loves the off going.

turf--If you Like Bago, you should also like Shirocco. 20-1ML is the laugh
of the day. arc runners up have a big history at Belmont and the BC.

FM turf--Ouija Board ain't losing take that to the bank.

Whipper was 10th with a near perfect trip in last year's Mile. He's also a course specialist at Deauville...so narrowly finishing ahead of Valixir there is pretty unimpressive to me.

[BarnieClockerbigal]

He did finish ahead of Artie, did he not. :cool:

[Valuist]

Valixir was under even money against Starcraft, Whipper, Gorella and Majors Cast. I agree w/DS on this one.

[toetoe]

I personally hate Lion Tamer, but if he beat Pico Central, granting it was at a mile, he can beat these, PROVIDING:
1) he's better than ever, and
2) the field is shaky and subject to a meltdown. LITF can make the point moot.

[DrugSalvastore]

He did finish ahead of Artie, did he not. :cool:

Come on now!!!

Go back and watch the trip Artie Schiller got in that race! It was, to quote Randy Moss "an abysmal trip!"

I'm not talking about the Oakland Raider wide reciever either---even though he is my hero, I'm referring to another guy who shares his name.

[BarnieClockerbigal]

>Go back and watch the trip Artie Schiller got in that race! It was, to quote >Randy Moss "an abysmal trip!"

ah there lies the rub. a lot of horses get "bad trips" during the running
of the BC mile. either they get caught wide losing ground or they get caught
inside rounding the turn. Artie needs a perfect trip and hope that all the Euros
and the king get poor ones to get the money. I just don't see a scenerio where artie wins.

[DrugSalvastore]

ah there lies the rub. a lot of horses get "bad trips" during the running of the BC mile. either they get caught wide losing ground or they get caught nside rounding the turn. Artie needs a perfect trip and hope that all the Euros and the king get poor ones to get the money. I just don't see a where artie wins.

He doesn't need a perfect trip like you suggest---and he will be much more forwardly placed this year than last year.

[NoDayJob]

Play the 3 longest shots on the "ironman" [tote board] to win.

NDJ [AKA Troll # 1]

[BetHorses!]

DS

Good write up. I enjoyed that. Out of your top picks I only have Wild fit as a non contender (not in my top 4) so I respectfully disagree with that pick.

Good Luck though :ThmbUp:

[BetHorses!]

FM turf--Ouija Board ain't losing take that to the bank.



Funny, I think Ouija Board ain't winning and i'm going to the bank for that race.

I already gave my friend double the mutuel on him which means if Ouija wins and pays $7 my friend is getting paid $14 :p

[Valuist]

The only time getting "caught inside" is bad on the turf is if there's front runners stopping in front of you. The vast majority of the time a hole will open up. I'll take that trip on grass over the wide trips. If Artie has anything going against him, its the possibility of a soft or good course. His best races have been over very firm turf.

[BarnieClockerbigal]

I would say normal in everyday turf racing, yes you want to save ground and be on the inside. but it hard to look past 56% of trifecta finishers have
come from the 8 hole and beyond in the past 10 years of the BC mile.

[depalma13]

mile--whipper is the hoss. If you Like Valixir, Whipper beat him straight up
in France. Loves the off going.



Whipper only runs well in races run in a straight line.

Around a turn: 5 - 0 - 0 - 1 - 2

Straight line: 13 - 6 - 2 - 1 - 1

[BarnieClockerbigal]

Whipper only runs well in races run in a straight line.

Around a turn: 5 - 0 - 0 - 1 - 2

Straight line: 13 - 6 - 2 - 1 - 1

I see his turn races.

Group 1 Longchamp--2 length loss

Grade 1 BC mile--5 length loss

Group 2 Muguet--2 length loss

Group 3 Fer du Nord--3 length loss

Group 1 Longchamp--3 length loss

not too good but not too bad either since in three of those races
he was running against the best in the Nothern Hemisphere.

I take my chances with him over an way overbet Artie every day of the week
including Sunday.

Allan

[kenwoodallpromos]

Thanks for the rundown.

[toetoe]

DSal,

Kudos to you for a marvelous pick. Perfect trip, but I'd say he was entitled to one. My injured-jockey angle gets another winner.
I had Gorella as a main, Artie and King-o'-Beasts as backups. In fact, I was a nose away from a gut-wrenching loss --- Intercontinental, Taste Of Paradise and Artie Schiller were ALL backups, and I needed only one main to win. Silver Train made it academic. Of course, I took one main, Wonder Again, and 6 or seven backups, and then needed 'Fog. 'Tamer, Gorella or Valixir to win. If I listened to DS, I would have Artie on top and suffer the aforementioned beat.

Sal ... se puede!

[keilan]

Here is my analysis for the Breeders Cup races. It's done in kind of a newspaper tout style.


Juvenile Fillies. DrugS selections: 10-1

#10 WILD FIT was visually impressive while scoring a sharp maiden win, and Grade 1 score, in her two starts at Del Mar. She suffered a defeat at the hands of perfect trip Diamond Omi in the Oak Leaf, which was her first start around two turns. Looked unpolished in the Oak Leaf, and should really appreciate the one turn 8.5 furlong distance. Drawn nicely.

#1 FOLKLORE is probably the most talented filly in the race. She is unfavorably drawn for her first start beyond seven furlongs---but a big threat regardless. I really think this is a two horse race...and I'll side with Wild Fit.

* Pedigree Notes- #4 Diamond Omi is a half sister to 1996 BC Juvenile Fillies champion Storm Song. #5 Knight's Templar's dam won the 1986 Prioress Stakes over this track.

Juvenile. DrugS selections: 9-12-1

This is such a treacherous race---it's the kind of race that inspires you to try to do something clever...so I feel like such a total loser for picking #9 FIRST SAMURAI. Why in the name of God, would me of all people, want anything to do with a horse stretching out, who ran a 14 flat final 1/8th in the Hopeful, and a trotter like 27 3/5 final quarter in the Champagne??? On top of that, the entire female family of First Samurai is very Sprint oriented. You can't take a short price on this horse---but I think he's the most likely winner because, just like in the Hopeful and Champagne, there isn't anyone to pick him up late.

#12 STEVIE WONDERBOY thrived closing into a very fast pace in the Del Mar Futurity, BELIEVE me when I say he will have a similar pace setup here! This is the kind of horse that makes his own trouble though, and in a 14 horse field, jockey Garret Gomez is going to have to ride an excellent race here.

#1 SUPERFLY desperately needs to be taken back off-the-pace. Trainer Nick Zito moronically praised Coa's ride in the Champagne after he had this horse relatively close to an absurdly fast pace. With a jockey switch to Ramon Dominguez and a Zito comment saying he would take this horse back and make one-run, I would have got brave and picked this horse. This full brother to the painfully one-paced plodder Andromeda's Hero needs a change in tactics to be effective here.

Pedigree Notes- #1 Superfly is a full to Belmont runner-up Andromeda's Hero, #2 Ivan Denisovich is a half brother to Breeders Cup Mile winner War Chant, and his dam is 1993 Breeders Cup Distaff winner Hollywood Wildcat. #4 Set Alight is a half to 2001 Shuvee winner Apple of Kent. #8 Sorcerer's Stone is a half to Grade 1 winning multi-millionaire Dramatic Gold. #9 First Samurai's dam is a half sister to top filly sprinter Sky Blue Pink. #10 Henny Hughes's 2nd dam is top filly sprinter Shortly. #14 Dr. Pleasure is out of champion mare and 1999 Breeders Cup Distaff winner Beautiful Pleasure. BP is also a half sister to Grade 1 winning multimillionaire Mecke.

FILLY & MARE TURF. DrugS Selections: 2-13-10

#2 FILM MAKER consistently finds trouble and is almost as difficult to ride as fellow lunatic Intercontinental. P.Val gets a 2nd shot with her, she drew a favorable inside post, and she figures to offer excellent value. Was 2nd in this race last year, and may turn the tables on Ouija Board this time.

#13 OUIJA BOARD is the defending champion. Her best moment came also came around left-handed turns when she won the English Oaks by 7 lengths. But, she's had to suffer through physical problems this year, and post position 13 and a short price don't excite.

#10 INTERCONTINENTAL can't stay 10 furlongs unless she makes the lead. If Bejarano gets her an un-pressured early lead---she might surprise.

SPRINT. DrugS Selections: 4-7-6

#4 BATTLE WON is very quick early, and can finish when he is on his game. He's the best alternative when it comes to beating Lost in the Fog. Exited a similar turf loss to score an impressive win on the Ky Derby undercard. Taking a stab.

#7 LOST IN THE FOG is 10-for-10 so far, and since his maiden win at Golden Gate, he's never been a bigger price than 3-to-5 odds. He didn't exactly catch an honest group of sprinters by Breeders Cup standards---and he may take this field to school as well.

#6 WILDCAT HEIR is wickedly fast. Impressive six furlong scores in his last two outings, the latter a Grade 1 score in Maryland, and the most recent, a razor sharp, stalk-n-go, big figure victory in a stake at Monmouth. BUT, only having raced once all year bothers me.

MILE. DrugS selections: 2-10

#2 ARTIE SCHILLER is simply going to win this race. His last start was better than it looks, when he gave 8lbs to a very good horse, and narrowly lost to him. He's very well prepared for this race, he drew a favorable post, and gets an excellent style-fitting turf jockey in Gomez. I'm really excited about betting him.

#10 VALIXIR is a Euro raider who deserves a long hard look. He should ADORE North American Style racing. He's two-for-two lifetime in races run around a left handed turn, including an upset of Europe's best miler Starcraft in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes. His dam is a half sibling to 2001 Breeders Cup Mile winner Val Royal. Val Royal won his Mile over this same course. Gets top French jockey for this.

DISTAFF. DrugS selections: 2-1-9

#2 STELLAR JAYNE loves Belmont Park and should have this field at her mercy. She finished 3rd in last year's Distaff, but I really felt she was best that day, and she will make amends in here. Lightly raced this year, but she's been healthy, and this race has been her only goal all along.

#1 SOCIETY SELECTION can't get a break to save her life. Since her win in the Shuvee, she's had to suffer through three miserable trips, and a loss at Saratoga that resulted in a throat operation. She's due for some luck.

#9 HOLLYWOOD STORY was up against it from a pace standpoint last time out. She ran two sneaky good races around one-turn to start her career, and I think she will appreciate a one-turn nine furlong race. P.Val is named to ride.

TURF. DrugS selections: 3-7-5

#3 BAGO is the horse for me. He's on a four race losing streak, and his record at the distance is weak---but, watching film on him, I think this is the kind of horse who will adore a fast paced, 12 furlong, North American turf race. I like him here.

#7 SHAKESPEARE is a real exciting horse. He's capable of winning this race, but I think he's much better suited for 10 furlongs than he is for 12. I love his talent, but I'll beat him here

# 5 AZAMOUR won his first three lifetime starts around left-handed turns---all of them in Group 1 races! Two time Breeders Cup Turf winner High Chapperal is another horse from these same connections who thrived around left-handed turns in Europe. I found his last race disappointing though...and I'm willing to play against him in here.

CLASSIC. DrugS selections: 1-9-3

#1 ROCK HARD TEN has always looked like he will be a great horse. He was a monumental disappointment for trainer Jason Ormen, but since moving to the Dick Mandella barn, he's four for four with a pair of Grade 1 and 2 wins. The problem is that he hasn't exactly looked super brilliant in any of his four wins for Mandella. Sadly, he may never turn out to be the Great horse he looked like he had to be, but you don't need to be great to beat this field.

#9 Flower Alley got cooked by his own rabbit in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. There is much less early pace in this race than what was in the JCGC. This horse ran a deceptively strong race in the Kentucky Derby, and his win in the Travers at this distance was pretty solid. I wouldn't at all be surprised if he rebounded with a victory.

#3 Choctaw Nation is live at a price. He's run a few better than looked races, and I really like the prep he got in the Goodwood. He has one big sustained run, and he might get by everyone with it if the race sets up for him.

Drugs -- your pre-race analysis is as good as it gets, haven’t seen many better than maybe a couple of my own. :p

Hope you made some good coin today, you were certainly deserving :)

[DrugSalvastore]

DSal,

Kudos to you for a marvelous pick. Perfect trip, but I'd say he was entitled to one. My injured-jockey angle gets another winner.
I had Gorella as a main, Artie and King-o'-Beasts as backups. In fact, I was a nose away from a gut-wrenching loss --- Intercontinental, Taste Of Paradise and Artie Schiller were ALL backups, and I needed only one main to win. Silver Train made it academic. Of course, I took one main, Wonder Again, and 6 or seven backups, and then needed 'Fog. 'Tamer, Gorella or Valixir to win. If I listened to DS, I would have Artie on top and suffer the aforementioned beat.

Sal ... se puede!

Thanks Toetoe, sorry to hear about your tough beat.

I was so confident in an Artie Schiller victory, that I was utterly annoying a lot of the people I talked with today!...before the race. After the race, you shake a little and get all giddy and worry about the money you get to collect. When I really love a horse from a betting standpoint, on a day when the pools are large, I really talk him up to the sky!!--the way I see it, if you're going to run the risk of losing a lot of money with a very large bet---you might as well as run the risk of subjecting yourself to extreme humiliation as well.

Like you said, he did get an excellent trip from 24-karat Garret, but going into the race, it looked like he was a lock to get that very trip.

This horse had repeatedly been the victim of some very bad trips, pace setups, race circumstances, weight imposts, and in the Manhatten Cap, he got so hot and worked up before the race, that I literally canceled my tickets on him, with minutes to post, before the race, that day.

As we all know, some horses make their own trouble and bad luck---I was very convinced that this horse isn't one of them--and that he's just been GENUINELY VERY UNLUCKY...that bad luck was no fault of his own.

He beat a great Turf miler!--who didn't figure to get the best of trips going in. Leroidesanimaux is a total freak...he hadn't lost in nearly two full years, he had won six consecutive Graded Stakes races with Beyers ranging from 109-to-115, and he is the only horse in history to ever run a negative Turf figure on the Ragozin Sheets. I'm still over the moon about the finish of this race!

Races like this make it a little to hard to give up the game for selling cars.

[DrugSalvastore]

Drugs -- your pre-race analysis is as good as it gets, haven’t seen many better than maybe a couple of my own. :p

Hope you made some good coin today, you were certainly deserving :)

Thanks for the kind words Keilan!!

I really clobbered three of the eight BC races at the betting windows!! (The F&M Turf, the Juv Fillies, and especially The Mile!!)

I got a great run for my money in the Classic with Flower Alley as well! Saint Liam was just too much horse for him though.

I think I might even have won The Pace Advantage Board Breeders Cup Contest that Bubble's was running. I turned my $1,000 mythical bankroll into $6,250. That should be a pretty tough number for someone to beat.

I made a big mistake by mentioning the fact that I bet Giacomo in the Derby when I first came to this board, and talking about all the success I've had as a bettor.

Even if not quite everyone here called me a liar, no one really wants to hear about that stuff---gloating about the past is pretty lame....but it's hard to resist doing it when you're an ego maniac like myself! :)

Looking back though, I made a few mistakes in my handicapping of this card, and in one race, I didn't bet as smartly as I should of. As much fun as it is to want to pat myself on the back and do cartwheels everytime I have a good day..., I learned long ago that it really proves nothing. I always make it a point to study the mistakes I make every day...you learn from them and you'll get better overtime.

[toetoe]

Yeah. And I know turf has one winner and 11 excuses, but don't forget Gorella flying at those two freaks late. What's great about a pick-three or -four with huge fields is that you can be close to a big one without too much trouble, and one leave-out moved up to a backup (S. Train) and a backup moved up to a main (Artie S.) can put you over the top. The mains cost more, of course. And BC Day, it's rarely chalk-chalk-chalk, paying less than the investment. But I DID accomplish something remarkable. I lost with Garrett Gomez. Very rare. He didn't even get the DQ, either.

[BetHorses!]

Yeah. And I know turf has one winner and 11 excuses, but don't forget Gorella flying at those two freaks late.


Don't want to take anything away from Artie and great bet at 5-1 but she was by far the best. Did you see how much traffic she was in. From the far turn to the wire. She has a big heart and I am a big fan now even though I needed her to get at least 2nd for my lungs

[BarnieClockerbigal]

Gorella was flying late? what was whipper doing?
artie won and Ouija lost, I gonna jump off the nearest building.

Oh wait I bet Shirocco and his 19.60 Mutual.

I think suicide will have to wait for another day. **LOL**

[Tom]

Looking at Bubbles results, I'd wish I had prointed out Drugs's analysis and read it more carefully!:eek:


Nice day, Drugs, nice day. :ThmbUp:

[BetHorses!]

Gorella was flying late? what was whipper doing?
artie won and Ouija lost, I gonna jump off the nearest building.

Oh wait I bet Shirocco and his 19.60 Mutual.

I think suicide will have to wait for another day. **LOL**


I don't recall any traffic problems for Whipper?

[BetHorses!]

DS

Good write up. I enjoyed that. Out of your top picks I only have Wild fit as a non contender (not in my top 4) so I respectfully disagree with that pick.

Good Luck though :ThmbUp:


Good pick. I was wrong about her. :ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

I hate to do this, cause I know I'm gonna get flamed, and maybe rightfully so, but why all the hoopla over DrugS' picks/analysis? One top choice winner for a flat bet loss, and if you bet his top two, you lost money as well....

I know, I know, I'm one to talk...I put one set of picks out there for the classic, and I didn't do much with it....but....

What am I missing here?


PS. Kudos for the strong rating on Artie Schiller, your best bet.

[dav4463]

You could have bet ALL of my picks and shown a solid profit with ZERO winners on top.

I only played the last six races though.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Race 5.....8 Megahertz
9 Favourable Terms

Race 6.....11 Gygistar
3 Silver Train---------------------WIN $25.80

Race 7.....6 Funfair
10 Valixer

Race 8.....7 Happy Ticket
1 Society Selection

Race 9.....4 Better Talk Now
10 English Channel
2 Shirocco-----------------------WIN $19.60

Race 10....11 Borrego
9 Flower Alley
14 Starcraft
__________________

[PaceAdvantage]

Hey look, I'm the last person to criticize playing your 3rd or 4th choices. I do it all the time based on the tote action.

But lots of guys on here post picks and/or analyses and get hammered when they don't pick profitiable horses in the first or second slot (the most recent being WHOBET). It was just curious to see DrugS get heaps of praise for picks that did not return a profit in the first or first/second slot....

[toetoe]

My sole reason for slobbering all over him was the commitment to Artie. Hey, that sounds like what Al Davis will give when he hires Mr. Gigantino as coach. DrugS bet his whole wad on Artie in the contest; and why give out an entire card of picks, anyway? I mean, as real wagering advice. If we're going to play EV-ry FRIG-gin' RACE (spoken in Chris Russo voice) then that's just shopping for action. Artie showed up bigtime, and DrugS can be forgiven for thinking the price was skimpy. Maybe $20 or more was foreseeable, but he was bet the whole way.

[DrugSalvastore]

It was just curious to see DrugS get heaps of praise for picks that did not return a profit in the first or first/second slot....

If I was a Public handicapper, and my job was simply to manufacture winners with my top pick...yes, I would be 1-for-8. But, I'm a bettor and not some dope from a newspaper---so I think the analysis gets judged differently. Here's what I mean PA.

In the Juv Fillies, I aggressively called it a two horse race between Wild Fit and Folklore. Didn't even bother to pick a horse 3rd. They run 1-2, and the exacta pays $54. Even though the "top pick" didn't win....I think it's pretty clear I crushed the 26-to-1 exacta.

In the F&M Turf, I pick the race 2-13-10. It comes in 10-13-2 and the Tri pays $1,167.00. Once again though, top pick doesn't win, but it's pretty clear I make good money betting the race.

In the Mile, my best bet wins at $13.20.

I think that's why a few people had some kind words for my analysis.

[toetoe]

One last thing. The newspaper guys have to pick every race, and they have to beat the deadline, sometimes 48 hours ahead of time, I think. DrugSal, if you knew, and maybe you did, that a ton of European money was on Shirocco, starting early in the week, you'd throw him in, wouldn't you?

[cj]

Nice job DrugS, it is tough to go out on the line like that in every race. Here were mine, some good, some bad, some really bad, but I did it anyway as much as I hate it!

I feel bad I didn't post it here, but I figured most from this site know where my stuff is by now:


http://www.pacefigures.com/bcanalysis05.html

[DrugSalvastore]

One last thing. The newspaper guys have to pick every race, and they have to beat the deadline, sometimes 48 hours ahead of time, I think. DrugSal, if you knew, and maybe you did, that a ton of European money was on Shirocco, starting early in the week, you'd throw him in, wouldn't you?

I also did pick every race---and I posted it 72 hours in advance.

I honestly did know that Shirocco was taking a flood of money in Europe---and still I didn't like him one bit. So, to answer your question honestly, No, I wouldn't have thrown him in. I was DEAD wrong about Shirocco, and all the Euro wiseguys turned out right.

[BarnieClockerbigal]

Whipper was going the best of anybody at the finish. Clearly.

[BetHorses!]

Whipper was going the best of anybody at the finish. Clearly.


Clearly meaning the only one in the clear. Many had traffic problems here but not Whipper.

You also stated Ouija Board could not lose the Filly and Mare Turf and she ran better than I thought (if Film Maker gets 2nd I score) but let me ask you this--What kind of a statement is that? What can you possibly gain by saying that? The horse was $6 if she wins. I used to try and educate people at the track but no more. I just keep my mouth shut and when I do say something its THANK YOU

[BarnieClockerbigal]

Hey I was wrong about Ouija board. I been wrong before.
I had her at 5-2. took a shot and lost. congrats to the connections of Intercontinental.

Just like I took a shot with Whipper and Shirocco. (love my euros)

[ezpace]

Had a big Breeders CUp.. I had a lot of sentiment ..which i normally don't bet ((know better))((Artie Shiller -connections.. and a few Garret Gomez mounts.)) You're analysis helped,, along with CJ and a some others here. I bet the largest double i ever bet in the late double COLD and hit ..after having a nice day early..

Anytime ANYBODY makes selections ..especially a day or many hours before knowing what the bias of the track is ..including seeing what their doing with the "WATER TRUCK" it's tough.. congrats to any that do that.

CJ * iit's
really appreciated having those EUROPEAN HORSES FIGS .. to cool!!!! thx.

[kingfin66]

Hey look, I'm the last person to criticize playing your 3rd or 4th choices. I do it all the time based on the tote action.

But lots of guys on here post picks and/or analyses and get hammered when they don't pick profitiable horses in the first or second slot (the most recent being WHOBET). It was just curious to see DrugS get heaps of praise for picks that did not return a profit in the first or first/second slot....

There is absolutely no comparison between what DrugS did and what Whobet does. DrugS gave his BC picks with analysis and then put an exclamation point on them by winning Bubbles' BC contest. Whobet, on the other hand, simply spams the selections section everyday. Big, big difference.

[keilan]

Nice job DrugS, it is tough to go out on the line like that in every race. Here were mine, some good, some bad, some really bad, but I did it anyway as much as I hate it!

I feel bad I didn't post it here, but I figured most from this site know where my stuff is by now:


http://www.pacefigures.com/bcanalysis05.html

cj I totally agree that's it's tough doing this kind of write up on such a big day, somehow it weighs on most any of us that do it. At times I'd almost rather be right about what I've posted than cash a decent size ticket. Not sure why that is?

For me Drugs was decisive and he didn’t wavier/hedge in his opinion, I respect that but most importantly his rational and thought process were clear.

What I’ve learnt from posting here before the race, that the payoff is ZILCH if you’re right and embarrassment/lose creditability if you’re wrong. There was a thread last year about the BC sprint and how the race would run, which garnered a lot of attention etc … I inevitability got caught up in the discussion and cap/analyzed the race for all to see. I called the exactor cold and anyone following should have had the superfecta (I cashed it here), not only that the race unfolded exactly as I had called it. When I returned home from the track some hours after the races not a single guy from this board came forward and said a word. I vowed at that minute I’d never put myself out there again on this board.

Most guys here aren’t talented enough nor have the balls to write what the kid wrote and be mostly right. I have him bang-on 4 of the 8 races, anyone that’s not spreading only slightly knows absolutely nothing about wagering. Drugs earned some points with me Saturday and I only wish I’d have read his post more closely cause I stunk for the 1st half of the card then lit it up the last 4 races.

Really all of us play our own horses but when someone from our group has a good day I have no problem acknowledging that talent. Honestly how many guys can stand up and say they had a better collective grasp of the card than Drugs did?

[twindouble]

Hi Keilan;

I stated in another thread, "give credit where credit is due." Why some people find that hard to do, I don't know. This is a public forum, so anyone who steps up and give their views on handicapping, wagering or doing a complete analyisis on a whole card has my respect, regardless of how many winners he or she had. Besides one card don't tell all when it comes to making money playing the horses, we all have bad days and good days as you know. So, I agree with you.

What your hitting on is, we all bring who we are to the game as someone said here and I've said in different words. We do the same on this forum, my position is and always has been to throw out some advice here and there, that's who I am. Not only that, I'm not equipped to do a 10 paragraph analyisis on any card, it's painfull just to respond to simple posts. :bang: Some here can just bang it out off the top of their head in one tenth the time it would take me. On the other hand, if you were sitting next to me at the track with form in hand, I could make a case for my picks with no problem and I can assure you I would rub my winning tickets in your face and make a seen for everyone around us and I would expect the same from you. Then we can go have a beer or two and talk about the right and wrong things we did and prep for the next day. :cool: Got to love it!


Good luck,

T.D.

[PaceAdvantage]

Oh God, where is my barf bag? This place ROUTINELY criticizes public handicappers when they can't put together a WINNING RECORD with their TOP CHOICE for the entire meet.

The ONLY public handicapper to get ANY respect on this board recently has been Nick Kling, and he has to have a positive ROI for something like a YEAR to get any positive mention....so don't give me crap about "having the balls to put it out there" and having a "collective grasp of the card" baloney.

I've known and seen plenty of public handicappers "put it out there" and have a VERY GOOD "collective grasp of the card," but if they didn't have the positive ROI with their top pick (or top two, if the crowd in question was being generous), they got HELL from folks on message boards just like this one.

Sorry if I'm ruffling a few feathers here, but I call 'em like I see 'em. If you guys care to point out on this or any other message board, a post where someone praises a public handicapper for having a negative ROI on their top picks, but a good "collective grasp of the card," I'm dying to see it....

[cj]

I have to say PA, I don't recall too much discussion about public handicappers at all, good or bad. Did I miss a few threads?

[Jingle]

PA and CJ

I don't know about the Public Handicappers but I am amazed at how the New York Morning-Line Oddsmaker fared on Breeders Cup Day.

Out of the entire 10 race card, 1 the TOP THREE M-L FAVORITES (there were some ties) won 8 of the 10 races!! The 2 races not having a top 3 M-L Odds were the 8th and the 9th.

I don't know how others feel but I think this is amazing with the large fields in 10 races. I'm curious if others feel the same or was it just business as usual.
Nobody who attended with me that day, including myself, even came close to that!! Well, back to the drawing board I guess or should it be M-L Odds!!

Jingle

[PaceAdvantage]

I have to say PA, I don't recall too much discussion about public handicappers at all, good or bad. Did I miss a few threads?

Probably not. I wasn't limiting the discussion to this board.

Perhaps my use of "this place" was a bit overzealous.

[twindouble]

PA and CJ

I don't know about the Public Handicappers but I am amazed at how the New York Morning-Line Oddsmaker fared on Breeders Cup Day.

Out of the entire 10 race card, 1 the TOP THREE M-L FAVORITES (there were some ties) won 8 of the 10 races!! The 2 races not having a top 3 M-L Odds were the 8th and the 9th.

I don't know how others feel but I think this is amazing with the large fields in 10 races. I'm curious if others feel the same or was it just business as usual.
Nobody who attended with me that day, including myself, even came close to that!! Well, back to the drawing board I guess or should it be M-L Odds!!

Jingle

There's lots a ways of looking at the morning line, one way not to look at it at all. Your example don't do it for me when it comes to top 3 picks, I'd say I did as good if not better and still didn't cash a darn ticket, so I can't make a case for myself or take a bow on my top 3. The bottom line is what you bet and how you bet it.

Here's another example. I had a pick 6 picked in the morning, after scratches and changes I move one horse up and elimiated the winner. The horse that won was 4-1 ML, went off chalk and it still paid good. When asked how I did, I said I lost it but no one heard me say I could have had it. ( it's history now). The pick 5 did put me on the plus side some. So the ticket you hold in your hand tells the story. I stated I needed $8,192 to make a play with my early picks to hit the 6, (to rich for me), even if I stuck to what I had I would have ended up with 5 but who the heck knows how I would have actually played it if I could afford it? There's a big difference in my opinion. I know one thing, Pleasent Home wouldn't have been on the tickets regardless. Intercontinental was in my top 3 at one point, thinking he could steal the race, well in the gimmicks, I use the sucker just just second, third and forth. Just another example. :bang: Anyway, like I said I do respect those guys that but it out there every day and those that post there picks here.

Good luck,

T.D.

[DrugSalvastore]

Oh God, where is my barf bag? This place ROUTINELY criticizes public handicappers when they can't put together a WINNING RECORD with their TOP CHOICE for the entire meet.

The ONLY public handicapper to get ANY respect on this board recently has been Nick Kling, and he has to have a positive ROI for something like a YEAR to get any positive mention....so don't give me crap about "having the balls to put it out there" and having a "collective grasp of the card" baloney.

I've known and seen plenty of public handicappers "put it out there" and have a VERY GOOD "collective grasp of the card," but if they didn't have the positive ROI with their top pick (or top two, if the crowd in question was being generous), they got HELL from folks on message boards just like this one.

Three things PA. #1. I'm not a public handicapper. #2. 8 races isn't an entire meet. and #3. The object of a bettor is simply to just make money.

I don't see why you are so firey about a few people saying "nice job." ? I assume it's because I annoy you a little bit...and you're a bit argumentive. So, you need to argue that my handicapping was really mediocre because I didn't produce a 'top pick flat bet profit.'

It's kind of cute how you neglect to mention the giant profit my picks generated with exactas and trifectas. A simple $2 ex box on every race would have cost $72 and returned $186 back. A simple $2 trifecta box on every race would have cost $60 and returned back $1,167.

The point of the analysis was to just post my feelings of how I saw each Breeders Cup race. It wasn't to try and produce any kind of profit or to try and gain respect and cred from fellow posters.

It was hardly my best display of handicapping....but I thought I did a nice job overall. And a lot of people were very kind to say I did. I don't know if PA would be so fired up about it, if a less annoying person than me was the one recieving a few props from people.

[PaceAdvantage]

Three things PA. #1. I'm not a public handicapper. #2. 8 races isn't an entire meet. and #3. The object of a bettor is simply to just make money.

Actually, the scope of the thread has moved beyond your analysis and into the realm of public handicappers and others who post picks on the net. I never said you sucked, or that your analysis sucked. All I said was your top pick, and your top two picks failed to return a profit. When others post picks (and yes, you provided picks along with your analysis) that fail to return a profit, they tend to catch static from the people that bother to check whether or not the picks did any good. I wondered aloud why that did not happen in this case....in fact, quite the opposite happened.

I WANT to see the kind of response you received from your analysis on this board!! Believe me, it's much nicer than reading somebody say "well, your top pick didn't make any money....you suck"

Yes you have gotten under my skin once or twice, and that's probably the reason I'm busting your balls a little bit here, but I did throw you some props in my original reply concerning Artie Schiller......

My reason for posting what I did, in all honesty, was less about you DrugS, and more about the general reaction to publicly posted selections and analyses.

[DrugSalvastore]

My reason for posting what I did, in all honesty, was less about you DrugS, and more about the general reaction to publicly posted selections and analyses.

Well that's cool than PA.

I'm not a neophyte with internet horse racing message boards...so I know some people can be very harsh critics....I remember when I took a stab and picked Snuck In to win the 2000 Preakness---he finished in mid-pack at 25-to-1 odds and a few people teased me mercilessly after the race....and that was just two weeks after the 2000 Derby, where I picked Fu Peg to win, Aptitude to come in 2nd, and China Visit to come in 3rd. They finished 1st, 2nd, and 6th respectively. The exacta paid over $60 as I remember.

I boldly picked Invisible Ink to win the 2001 Derby, and Giacomo to win the 2005 Derby....both of them ran lights out races, and fellow internet posters still give me all kinds of flack about the subsequent poor results of those two horses after the big Derby efforts. They still insist I'm the "luckiest bettor alive when it comes to big race days."

Honestly though, I really don't care all that much if people want to knock me for bad picks after I had a bad day---losing money hurts a lot worse than people picking on my "picks." But, if I have a nice profitable day betting, and I felt my analysis of the race or races was good....than it really bugs me if people want to knock me.

Last year, I ended up in a national radio interview with a former NFL (LA RAMS) running back...insisting that Rock Hard Ten was going to beat Smarty Jones in the 2004 Belmont Stakes. I took A TON of crap after that race...and in my opinion, it was all 100% justified.

If you are going to go out on the limb and do picks and analysis (I only do on big race days) you are certain to catch some flack from the Redboarding types if you perform poorly...that's just how it goes.

[Light]

PA

Does your sensitivity with public handicappers have anything to do with someone you know?

[Tom]

I always compliment the big winners - they usually buy a round when I do! :D

Really I though Drugs wrote a nice analysis, and the total he posted was impressive. I seperate our own from pro pickers.

Don't worry, we'll be flaming him again by next weekend! :bang:

[PaceAdvantage]

PA

Does your sensitivity with public handicappers have anything to do with someone you know?

More than just public handicappers, of which, I've known more than a few. It's also regular folk who post right here on this board.