NFL week 8

[Valuist]

Its Breeders Cup week, so did most of my NFL capping already. 22-16-1 on the season now. I like to bet early, especially if they involve key numbers:

SAN DIEGO -6 over KC. SD may be the best 3-4 team I've ever seen. So far the schedule has been brutal: Dallas, Denver, NY Giants, New England, Pittsburgh, Oakland and Philly. Their 4 losses were by a combined 12 pts. Both teams run well but this year SD has the edge in pass O, run D, and pass D.

Wash/NYG OVER 41--I expect this number to rise off the key number. Last week I detailed the change in offensive philosophy for the Redskins and the linemaker hasn't caught up. The Giants can move the ball both ways and teams move it well on them; 23 first downs a game given up. I'd have made this total 44 1/2 to 45.

Baltimore +9 over PITT. Just a simple fundamental play. A big spread (9) in a low totalled game (33). I won't use that with SF because they are just too horrific but Baltimore still has one of the top defenses in the game and should keep them close, even if the Ravens offense is lousy.

[Valuist]

adding CINCINNATI -9 over Green Bay. The Packers are completely decimated by injuries offensively. The top 2 RBs are out for the year and the 1st and 3rd wide outs are out injured also. I think Favre is going to have to try to carry them on his back and that's not good against a defense that leads the NFL in turnovers forced (23) and interceptions (15).

[toetoe]

Lions versus anybody. JGar is back, BAY-BEE! He's no Chaz Batch, and maybe that's ... a GOOD thing. Apologies to MStew. Toetoe, y'FYE-yud.

[Valuist]

One negative about betting early: sometimes additional injury info comes out. Baltimore is really up against it this week, and SD has several key players who may play but at less than 100%.

Jacksonville -3 over StL. I like the rested Jags to stop the Rams O here. If Martin starts, the Jags will be all over him. If Bulger plays, he may be rusty and likely far less than 100%. Both Holt and Bruce are listed as questionable and the Rams learned their coach will not be back. Then again, maybe thats a positive but players don't usually view it that way.

[BetHorses!]

One negative about betting early: sometimes additional injury info comes out. Baltimore is really up against it this week, and SD has several key players who may play but at less than 100%.



One of my theories about a star player being out in any sport (Ray Lewis of the Ravens in this case) is the rest of the team wants to prove they can win without the star and they tend to play a little harder with some pride. I have done well with this in the past and I feel the Raven defense will surprise some people without Lewis but on the other hand i haven't figured out how they will score yet :)

You do get more value with the line as public tends to always bet against the team missing the key player.

[Valuist]

I agree 100% although Ed Reed is also hurt as well. Actually on the IR report I saw, both were listed as questionable, and I thought both were supposed to be out. I'm not going to cancel out my play but I also wonder how they will score. Maybe a turnover and some good special teams.

One instance where I disagree would be multiple injuries at a position or two, like what Green Bay is going thru now at RB and WR.

[freeneasy]

my totals give the giants 24 wash 21.50 for 45.50
i get san diego 25.30 kc 23. kc can make this game a close one no doubt but sd's 3 wins have been by 13 points once and more then 20 twice
i got
dallas over arizona 28-15 giving 9
cleveland over houston 23 -15 getting 2
carolina over minn 27.30 -16.95 giving 7 1/2
tampa bay over sf 28.55 - 14 giving 11
new england over buffalo 28 -17 giving 9

[Valuist]

adding 2 more:

NO/Miami OVER 41--NO leads the NFL in first downs per game; they just have shot themselves in the foot w/mistakes. Maybe that wont be the case in their Louisiana home opener. Can move the ball on both defenses (both give up over 19 FD a game). Defensive QB rating against in the high 80s for both teams

Houston -1--yes, the Texans. They have some talent but Carr has been sacked so much he can't throw. But Cleve has one of the weakest pass rushes in the NFL. Houston finally gets off the schneid.

[Valuist]

3-4 on the week

25-20-1 on the season