this game should cover, by the numbers, ncaa football

[freeneasy]

over the years ive designed numerous systems to beat the spread. its a tough game. i did a little redesigning on my latest system and i think iam going to leave it at that... at least for the time being... degenerate that i am :D
the last system got me pretty close to the vegas line and the little bit of tinkering i did with the latest i think got me even closer maybe a point or two. but iam figuring if my spread consistently lines up with vegas then ive got a very good system so much so that when a strong descrepency shows up i can expect my number to hold well.
ive only got 11 games handicapped and of those 11 games penn st. has come up good.
i got
penn st 45
illinois 18
penn st by 27
the line is penn st -18
penn st has a 9 point advantage in a situation where they should win by 18 or more

penn st is 6-1 and illinois is 2-4 and its not going to matter to ps how bad illinois is ps will run up the score as much as they possibly can plain and simple. by the end of the year they want to be 10-1 with big scoring numbers and illinois can give them some of that right here. penn st is going to win first and foremost and thats what counts most as the bottom line and joe boy really does'nt "have his job cut out for him" as far as winning this game is concerned but after some pretty miserable seasons he needs to keep penn st up there in the lights as long as he can with as much galmor as he can. and 'by the numbers' i come up with penn st to win by 27

fld st -30
nortre dame -19
tcu -2.50
tulsa -15.50
wisconsin -7
ucla -13.50
fresno st -32
oregon -12
louisvile -21
usc -38.50

[freeneasy]

i got some numbers on 29 games, came up with 10 favorites and 4 dogs.

fld st -30.30
ohio st -18
iowa -2.10
mich st -10.80
pitt -10
geogia -18.15
clemson -41.60
notre dame -19
tcu -2.65
tulsa -15.50
tenn -.50
cal -8.80
mia fld -11.65
wisc -7.40
bowling g -27.60
ucla -13.35
fresno -32
oregon -12
louisville -21
colo st -1.90
penn st -27.30
miss -11.80
texas -11.30
toledo -39.80
utah -16.50
lsu -.50
usc -38.65
boise st -29
navy -12.80

best bets by the numbers
favorites
1) navy
2) penn st
3) boise st
4) ucla
5) toledo
6) usc
7) texas tech
8) michigan
9) ohio st
10) clemson

dogs
1) tenn
2) auburn
3) texas tech
4)wash st

i rechecked my numbers on texas tech getting 17 points from texas but the numbers put out texas to win by only 11.30. still texas can turn this game into a route
usc to win by 38.65 giving up the -30 is a question in my mind. they will win and they can beat washington by more then 39 but last week and for this time in the season they had to give over 110% with the intensity level they had to bring for the notre dame game. they had to be spent, totally spent and they should probably need at least 2 weeks to completely recover. they will come out and give it 100% but with whats left after last week that 100% effort may only have an output level of 90 to 92 per cent.