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View Full Version : Hurricane Wilma--Florida residents please monitor


BetHorses!
10-18-2005, 01:20 AM
Six weeks left of this record breaking season and although currently a trop storm Wilma will become a Hurricane. The historic Hurricane Season of 2005 now has the distinction of being the busiest ever. Wilma's formation Monday morning gives 2005 21 named storms, equaling the mark set in 1933.

Here's what the models Early predictions say:

Candian model: Friday, Sarasota
GFS model: Saturday, Florida Keys
NOGAPS model: Saturday, Florida Keys
GFDL model: Sunday, Tampa
UKMET model: Wilma stalls out over the Yucatan at day 6; eventual track after that not known.

Alpha next, additional storms will take names from the Greek alphabet: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, and so on.

BetHorses!
10-18-2005, 11:23 PM
16 mb pressure drop in last 3 hours. Looks like it will become CAT 4 or CAT 5 very soon. However, eye is very small and should go thru replacement cycle and it probably will weaken to a CAT 3 (still Major) before hitting Florida due to shear.

Reminds me of Rita

BetHorses!
10-19-2005, 08:13 AM
16 mb pressure drop in last 3 hours. Looks like it will become CAT 4 or CAT 5 very soon. However, eye is very small and should go thru replacement cycle and it probably will weaken to a CAT 3 (still Major) before hitting Florida due to shear.

Reminds me of Rita


I posted this last night before bed and when I woke up she is now the most intense storm ever in the Atlantic.....882 mb wow!

Now we better pray she weakens

lsbets
10-19-2005, 08:21 AM
It looks like they are projecting it to take a big right turn in the Gulf and hit Florida. What are the chances that it just continues going north?

BetHorses!
10-19-2005, 09:17 AM
It looks like they are projecting it to take a big right turn in the Gulf and hit Florida. What are the chances that it just continues going north?


It looks like the Upper level High will weaken and she will begin to move more Northwest, then North and then NorthEast. So I say the chances are less then 10% she will continue to move North.

She is a very small storm. Hurricane winds only extend out 15 miles compared to 70 miles for Rita and 105 miles for Katrina.

CryingForTheHorses
10-19-2005, 07:35 PM
Living in Hollywood Florida, I just spent 45 minutes at the propane place to fill my cylinder for the BBQ in case the power goes out,The Home Depot man is making big bucks at this moment selling wood and whatever, Gas lines this evening were long,Going to the grocery store is also taxing, Mandatory evacuations will start tomorrow for the keys, All tourists and non-residents were asked to leave today...Schools will be closd tomorow in Momroe county I hate to think of what may happen at Calder and to the new grandstand at Gulfstream,I sure hope it weakens!!

kenwoodallpromos
10-19-2005, 08:46 PM
Good luck on missing it Tom! How is the weather affecting your horse training?

BetHorses!
10-20-2005, 12:20 AM
Here's my take on this right now

Some models have been flip flopping which means unreliable to me. She is forcasted to be over warm waters for at least 36 hrs and is completing eye wall replacement cycle (weakening) so restrengthening can continue. It looks like Florida but nobody knows where right now and even if she weakens to Cat 3 there still can be a cat 5 storm surge which is very bad news.


Interesting note, a couple of the consistant models have her racing off towards Long Island and New England at Cat 2 strength after crossing Florida

BetHorses!
10-21-2005, 12:03 PM
I will not be able to post any more updates on this storm the rest of the weekend but depending how much time it spends over land is crucial to Wilma's next path. I feel it can be anywhere from a CAT 3 down to a CAT 1 storm due to dry air and shear it will encounter as it turns to the East. If it stays over land in Mexico and stalls it can miss Florida totally to the south.

My prayers for the stranded people on Cozumel Island and I think this will be Mexico's worst hurricane disaster ever.

Tom
10-21-2005, 11:10 PM
It's battering Mexico (Cancun) tonight. Could be there a while.
Sustained winds over 145 mph!
Looking at Tuesday now for Florida.


Maybe it will blow a few of our jobs back north! :D

CryingForTheHorses
10-23-2005, 02:52 PM
Here we go again, Looks like Naples is going to get the eye, The rest of South Florida onthe backside of this Hurricane, Racing cancelled at Calder tomorrow,They are going to run Mondays card of fri with a couple of extra races from fridays "in the book" races.Hate these things as they do a lot of damage,Calder still havent got some of the barn roofs fixed from Hurricane Katrina, I myself put a 50lb bag of oats and a 5 gallon bucket of water on my roof to keep it from flapping in the wind,Cant nail steel roof into steel beam!! spooking my horses and others in my barn.Wish us luck guys as Im sure the power will be out here in Hollywood in the morn!!

Tom
10-23-2005, 04:43 PM
Good luck, Tom.

BetHorses!
10-24-2005, 12:27 AM
Here we go again, Looks like Naples is going to get the eye, The rest of South Florida onthe backside of this Hurricane, Racing cancelled at Calder tomorrow,They are going to run Mondays card of fri with a couple of extra races from fridays "in the book" races.Hate these things as they do a lot of damage,Calder still havent got some of the barn roofs fixed from Hurricane Katrina, I myself put a 50lb bag of oats and a 5 gallon bucket of water on my roof to keep it from flapping in the wind,Cant nail steel roof into steel beam!! spooking my horses and others in my barn.Wish us luck guys as Im sure the power will be out here in Hollywood in the morn!!

Good Luck

Forward speed is increasing so it will blow out fast but Tornadoes AHEAD of the eye is what to watch out for. Storm surge along west coast especially Key West will be bad.

She is intensifying and eye is contracting which is bad news

boxcar
10-24-2005, 01:50 AM
The wind is starting to pick up where I am. Mayfield is saying that the storm will exit West Palm Beach -- but I'm thinkin' that's just a tad bit too far north. It appears the eye will hit slightly south of Naples on the west coast, and I'm thinking it will exit north Broward County or South Palm Beach County on the opposite coast.

Thankfully, it's moving fast, so we shouldn't get too much rain, nor very much wind damage usually associated with a lingering storm.

Boxcar

CryingForTheHorses
10-24-2005, 04:36 AM
Whowee!!..Wind is howling like I have never seen it, Rain is starting to come down, Still have power so far!!...Have to get in my truck to go feed and look after my horses, Have to get there fast, Hope everybody in this path makes it out safe, I have 3 horses to run on Sunday, Hope they make it safe, Ill keep posting as long as I have power..120mph winds...Glad it is moving fast..

boxcar
10-24-2005, 06:49 AM
Whowee!!..Wind is howling like I have never seen it, Rain is starting to come down, Still have power so far!!...Have to get in my truck to go feed and look after my horses, Have to get there fast, Hope everybody in this path makes it out safe, I have 3 horses to run on Sunday, Hope they make it safe, Ill keep posting as long as I have power..120mph winds...Glad it is moving fast..

Right now, as I type this, the eyewall is about 8 miles SSW of Marco Island, and the storm is at a hefty Cat 3 strength. The winds have really picked up here, also, even though I'm a good hour and a half or so north of you. I just hope my friends in Naples and Marco Is. make it through safely, as I'm greatly concerned seeing what's going on right now in the Keys.

Keep safe, Tom. Will keep you and yours and your horses in my prayers.

Boxcar

boxcar
11-04-2005, 11:08 AM
Glad to see that all is well in cybersapce, generally, but particularly here on this forum.

Wilma did a number on the utility and phone infrastructure, and have been without power for 9-1/2 days (thank God for generators!), and even longer without DSL "networking" capability. However, I came through unscathed, as did my "hurricane-resistant" home. Damage was minimal. Lost my favorite large tree, one solar panel plastic enclosure is history (good riddance!), and the 4" diameter steel pole that supported our basketball hoop and that was reinforced with concrete thoughout its length was snapped like a twig close to the ground.

As I find time later, I will put together a commentary on my observations of human behavior before, during and after the storm. Some unbelievable stuff.

Boxcar

chickenhead
11-04-2005, 11:17 AM
Glad to hear that you and yours are OK Box.

lsbets
11-04-2005, 11:40 AM
Glad you're okay Boxcar, I've been wondering how you are. Jump back in the fray, I think Sec has missed you.

PaceAdvantage
11-04-2005, 01:08 PM
Good to see you escaped the storm relatively unscathed....

Tom
11-04-2005, 10:34 PM
Boxcar.....glad to hear from you.

I am sooooo mad at Bush for doing this to you! :bang:

hcap
11-05-2005, 02:19 AM
Box,

Glad to hear from you. Thought for a moment you were called up for a divine review Then I checked the rapture index.
Not peaking yet. ;) ;)

BTW, if bush did send wilma, it would really make me anti bush

boxcar
11-06-2005, 01:58 PM
Boxcar.....glad to hear from you.

I am sooooo mad at Bush for doing this to you! :bang:

You bet! Doesn't that yo-yo know that Florida is a red state!? :mad: :mad:

Boxcar

boxcar
11-06-2005, 02:08 PM
Box,

Glad to hear from you. Thought for a moment you were called up for a divine review Then I checked the rapture index.
Not peaking yet. ;) ;)

Thanks, 'Cap.

No, I wasn't "raptured". And there was no need to check that index 'cause if I had been, none of us would be here -- according to my understanding of end time events in the eschatological teachings of the bible. ;)

BTW, if bush did send wilma, it would really make me anti bush

I was never pro-bush in any meaningful way to begin with. Furthermore, how do you know that Rove didn't act unilaterally and wasn't the real force behind this storm? (bad pun intended). :)

Boxcar

boxcar
11-06-2005, 08:03 PM
I sensed by early Monday morning of 10/24 that my area could get smacked pretty good by a Cat 3 storm. I even shot off a short post that morning to the effect that the winds were already picking up while the storm was still approaching the west coast of the peninsular.

I actually retired around 2:30 that morning, but woke up around 5:30, so decided to stay up a while to watch the reports on the tube. But as the winds picked up speed, I decided to stay awake until the first flicker of lights, which would signal me to power down all my sensitive equipment, including my old roof-top mounted A/C. That first flicker came around 7 A.M., and being exhausted, I decided to finally call it a "day". I think when my head hit the pillow, I was out like a light.

The next thing I knew, I woke up somewhat startled -- not because of any noises or thumps or bumps in the night, but because of the utter lack of any sound. The silence was deafening!

Still being half asleep, I, at first, thought the storm had passed. But then I began to wonder: Was it already noon time or past it, since this is when most meteoroligists forecasted the storm's exit from the east coast of Florida? So, I hurriedly got dressed and my wife and I went outside to see what was going on in our little corner of the world. Once we saw the devastation and even the sun trying to peek through the cloud covering, we realized that we were right smack in the middle of the eye! In fact, I experiened one of the most surreal moments in my life when I heard and saw birds flying overhead in the eye! These little creatures decided to spread their wings, just like we decided to stretch our legs during this momentary "time out.

Debris was everywhere! My favorite, large orchard tree was very close to laying flat on the road, making it virtually unpassable for any vehicle. Metal, foam, wood fencing, tree limbs, shingles, etc., etc. was strewn about everywhere.

The neighbor to the back of me had a tree about 3 times the size of my orchad tree, and the wind cut it (literally) in half! All of the large pieces were either laying in her yard or on top of her roof. (I'll have more to say about this woman later.)

At any rate, after being out for about a half hour in the calm before the second half, the winds started to pick up again. This was our cue, of course, to go back inside our house and hunker down for the back part of the hurricane, which is usually worse than the first half.

Once again, being very tired, I had no problems falling asleep immediately. And this time around, my wife did, also. (She was unable to sleep for the first half).

When we woke up around 1 P.M., the wind was still blowing strong, but not with anywhere near the force it had earlier. So, we ventured outdoors once again. To my amazement, my beautiful orchad tree was no longer laying on the road. The back side of the storm flipped it over 180 degrees back onto my front yard! (To give you a little perspective: This tree's trunk is about 2-1/2' in diameter and at least 20' tall.)

And the back side of the storm, did the damage to my solar panel. It not only ripped off the plastic cover that was bolted down, but tore up the plastic undersiding, as well. All that sits up there now for that one panel (we have two) is the water tank that is bolted down to the roof.

The storm itself moved very fast through the area, which I have to believe spared our neighborhood from even more damage. Not only did it move rapidly, but it was a very dry storm. By 4 or so in the afternoon when we went up to the roof to cut away the remaining plastic from the damaged solar panel, we were amazed to see hardly any water on our flat roof which covers a good portion of our patio.

All in all, we felt very fortunate and very blessed that we didn't suffer more damage than some of our less fortunate neighbors. For example, most of our neighbors lost their screened-in patio enclosures. We suffered no damage to our patio.

Another neighbor with an L-shaped flat roof like ours over her patio, lost the entire L! No damage to ours.

The vast majority of our neighbors lost fencing -- even the shadow-type that the wind can blow through. We have this type of enclosureon two sides for our water treatment equipment and pumps (when we were on well water), and the fencing survived nicely.

I count my losses as nothing compared to others. I'm very thankful to the good Lord above for sparing us further damage from a storm that had gusts up to 140 m.p.h.

When I find some time, I will devote a post to some unbelivable human behavior associated with this storm. These kinds off disasters bring out the best and worst in us.

Boxcar

CryingForTheHorses
11-15-2005, 03:43 PM
Whowee!!..Wind is howling like I have never seen it, Rain is starting to come down, Still have power so far!!...Have to get in my truck to go feed and look after my horses, Have to get there fast, Hope everybody in this path makes it out safe, I have 3 horses to run on Sunday, Hope they make it safe, Ill keep posting as long as I have power..120mph winds...Glad it is moving fast..

FINALLY BACK ON-LINE!!!!!!

Hurricane Wilma....

She moved in with a fury. We awoke Monday morning KNOWING that Wilma was making her debut. She would make landfall at 6:30 am.

We arrived at the racetrack at 5am--- all's well--- to sparking power lines and on-again-off-again power. Needless to say, we were worried.

We left the track and arrived home at 6:15am to no power. Already the weather was blustery and windy. We laid down for an hour, and awoke to Mother Nature's Wrath! We bobbed from window to window watching massive trees snap like toothpicks and horizontal rain so thick we couldn't see. We thought for sure the windows would break from the winds' strength. Mother Nature a her finest. Surprisingly, the neighborhood was quiet. no one ventured out and no noise but the wind could be heard. All the while, visions of loose horses and severe destruction at the racetrack played through our minds, unable to change the events or be instrumental in altering anything. This is an occurance everyone should experience once in a lifetime to gain the respect for Mother Nature and realize we are at the Lord's mercy.

By one o'clock, the storm had passed. The eye passed right over us, and the registered wind was 127 mph in Hollywood FL not including the tornadoes that aren't registered by Doplar Radar (and they are forces that cause most of the damage).

We surveyed our property, assessed the hours of labor it would take to clean it up, and proceeded to the racetrack instead. That is where we met complete devestation.

Although our four horses in Barn 24 were unscathed, and the roof was still intact, 80% of the barns were unroofed. There it was, 3pm in the sunny afternoon after Wilma made her presence just hours before, many a horse was standing in his stall the ears perked forward, looking out into the battlefield with no roof over his head. How would Calder ever come back??? Alas, the clean-up was in order all day Tuesday, and we resumed training on the training track Wednesday morning. It will be at least a week until the main track opens. There are any rails down and the Toteboard was demolished. Vans are lined up taking horses out of Calder. Jockey agents are meeting secretly discussing plans of staying or leaving. Sheet metal line the streets of Calder.

Seven foot high piles of tree limbs and debris line the streets in Hollywood. Access on many roads is limited to one lane from the overflow on sidewalks and downed trees. The destruction will take weeks to rid, and with 95% of South Florida without electricity, it will take weeks to get the pwer restored. And there's still a month left of Hurricane Season.

Hurricane Season. You hear the skillsaws before the storm, and the chainsaws afterwards. We'll be hearing alot of both in the next few wekks, especially in this eerie silence with no electricity and a 7pm til 7am curfew. Nobody will be going anywhere shortly if the gas stations don't get pumping soon. And while we sit outside in these glorious sun-filled days of clear skies, we wait endlessly in hope that help is on the way.

written October 25, 2006
but couldn't post.
We got our power back November 6th and the telephone line connected today. Yeah! I'm back on-line.

lsbets
11-15-2005, 03:49 PM
Welcome back McShell. Glad you, the family and the horses are all okay!

PaceAdvantage
11-15-2005, 06:20 PM
Wow! Welcome back McSchell!

Tom
11-15-2005, 10:52 PM
Close one, Tom....you must live right!

Glad to see you back safe and sound. :jump:

Zaf
11-15-2005, 11:07 PM
Welcome back Tom !!! Glad your O.K. , Now are those Canadian winters really that bad ?

ZAFONIC

boxcar
11-16-2005, 11:32 AM
I was wondering what happened to you, Tom. Very glad to see that you made it through and that all your stock is okay.

My wife is a professional musician and the day before yesterday, she had a gig in Broward County where you live - but slightly to the north of you. At any rate, she said that Broward, even now, still looked like a "war zone" compared to Palm Beach County where we live. She witnessed numerous debris piles still laying on the side of the streets and roads. Most traffic lights where she was were still out, etc.

One of her colleagues, who was within earshot of listening to my wife's expression of astonismhment at conditions that still prevail in Broward, said that she thought that Broward looked pretty darn good --- compared to Dade County to the south where she lived!

Even though the eye passed right over us, it appears that we were, nonetheless, spared from the worst of this powerful storm.

Boxcar