Streaking

[Rockford]

Curious to get the opinions of some here on handling winning / losing streaks. I recently had a long winning streak end sharply and suddenly. What do you do when that happens? Take a few days off? Keep plugging away but with reduced wager amounts?

I think it's an issue that's key to long term survival as a horseplayer. Any thoughts?

[sjk]

It depends on your level of confidence on your long term outcome. If you have strong confidence in your play, recent short term results should have no bearing on your next bet. Yesterday I was telling the guys in the War Room that I had lost 40 in a row and within the next fifteen minutes I won two races. No point in getting down when the next win may be minutes away.

If a bad streak goes on for weeks or months you might think about anything you are doing differently than in previous times and go back to what was successful.

Of course if the general long-term average is no good a thorough re-evaluation would seem to make sense.

[Overlay]

Along the lines of what sjk said, I've found benefits in keeping my handicapping as objective (which for me means statistically-based) and compartmentalized as possible. That way, if performance starts to suffer, I can be confident that it's not because of subjective judgments that can't be pinned down and analyzed. I can look at my handicapping model step by step and determine which component is not performing as reliably as it should, and use that as a basis for deciding what course of action to take, whether that would be giving greater weight to a specific factor, adjusting the entire end-product of my analysis (which for me is a fair-odds line), or determining that my results are within the limits of expected variance for my approach and either scaling my wagers downward or demanding a greater premium on my fair odds until more normal performance patterns begin to reassert themselves. Mainly, though, the benefit of my approach for me is that it keeps me from throwing good money after bad in a losing streak by being able to confidently pass on underlaid horses which don't justify a wager because their odds are lower than their actual winning chances.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Check previous threads on this subject.
I see the end of a winning streak as different- and better- than starting a losing streak.
Either way, reassess your methods to make sure external forces have not changed.

[Ron]

I think that its perfectly fine when women streak, but men are just too damn ugly. :D

[kev]

I only play on the weekends, so if I go cold I have 5 days off.

[twindouble]

Curious to get the opinions of some here on handling winning / losing streaks. I recently had a long winning streak end sharply and suddenly. What do you do when that happens? Take a few days off? Keep plugging away but with reduced wager amounts?

I think it's an issue that's key to long term survival as a horseplayer. Any
thoughts?

Rock; First you have to evaluate the type of loosing streak your on and that covers a few things. The most inportant is your handicapping obviously, for example, I stated in another thread I've had loosing streaks were believe it or not did some darn good handicapping, was in the hunt in many races, at the wire heads, nk's, nose's, bolted, blocked, well you name it. Just wasn't meant to be and that's not a time to back off, your still at the top of your game.

The type of wagers your making could be the very reason your on a loosing streak. For example you've got the contenders down but structured the wrong wager. A lot to be said about that.

Playing to many tracks or not knowing enough about the ones you've been playing.

Good handicapers can at a given point be ahead substantial amounts, what can I say? That's a tough decision for anyone to make but I like to take home some money.

Then theres the real downer, your horses are nowhere to be found, that's when I back off on the wagering but still continue to follow whats going on to get back on track, that can happen to anyone for different reasons. One could be overload of information, going to deep with your handicapping and over looking the obvious. Another reason could be your leaning to heavy on one or two factors. Only you know what you've been doing but like I said, back off and nail it down, dropping out of the game for a period of time isn't the answer.


Good luck,

T.D.

[Rockford]

Along the lines of what sjk said, I've found benefits in keeping my handicapping as objective (which for me means statistically-based) and compartmentalized as possible. That way, if performance starts to suffer, I can be confident that it's not because of subjective judgments that can't be pinned down and analyzed.

Apologies if I'm treading on old ground. I'm new to these forums and I find this particular subject fascinating.

As far as keeping handcapping objective and stat-based, are you actually able to do that? For a long time I thought that approach was an unattainable holy grail. I was never able to remove subjectivity completely. (and I am a figures guy (Quirin-style). I would feel naked trying to bet a race without them.)

But, the more experience I gain, the less I'm sure that it's desireable, even if it's attainable. I think there are just some aspects of handicapping that can't be quantified. Maybe I'm just rationalizing.

[Dave Schwartz]

SJK gave a great answer.

It really does depend upon your confidence level.

After a lengthy losing streak your confidence may well be shaken. You probably need to consider a few worthwhile questions:

1. Before this losing streak, did I really have confidence in my approach to the game?
In other words, did I have a reason to believe that I would win?


2. Is this losing streak a normal expectation of my approach?
Have I seen losing streaks like this before using this approach? (Even during the testing phase?)


3. Do I still feel that my approach is a winning approach?
This is a very important question and really connects up to SJK's comment.


If you address these 3 questions, then you will have a better handle on where you are. See, the real question we are interested in when we lose is, "Why am I losing?"

The really important question is, as you ask these questions, where do you get your first "no?"



If you got it at #1, then your losing streak may not really be a streak as much as it is the expected outcome.

If you got it at #2, then, unpleasant though it may be, it is a normal occurrence for your particular approach. You'll need to get at least somewhat used to it or find a different approach. (You don't have to like it, but you must learn to endure it.)

If you got a "no" at #3, then you have to ask yourself "Why not?" Is it because I never really had a winning approach to begin with (even though I thought I did) or is it because something has changed?

What could have changed? I have some clients who developed a pick-3 strategy for Southern California about 10 years ago. They were just collecting the money, making it look easy. After several months, there bankroll had grown from $500 to $7,000 and they were really beginning to get confiendet. Then a funny thing happened. They lost. Strangest thing. There win percentage on a race-by-race basis was hardly down at all - just a couple of percentage points - but their pick3 hit rate had dropped from about 15% (they played 2 x 2 x 2) to around 10%.

What had changed? We consulted and, after breaking out their race performance on a race number basis, we determined that they had a weakness: even-numbered races.

I know that sounds nuts, but look a little deeper. Back the, the 4th and the 6th race in SoCal was almost always an msw, and sometimes the 2nd race as well. Their weakness turned out to be maiden races with several first-time starters. The simply weren't very good at those races.

In closing, try to diagnose what has gone wrong. Something has changed. Either the game or your handicapping.

In the words of the immortal Michael Conrad (Phil Esterhaus on Hill Street Blues), "Hey, hey, hey - Be careful out there. It's a dangerous place."



Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Overlay]

Rockford:

I sent you a private message in response to your last post.

[speculus]

For want of a better word, I call it a "spider" approach.

Whenever my confidence is shattered either due to a series of losses or for publicly mis-handicapping an important race (I am a public handicapper), I find that resorting to the "spider" theory, at least for my personal bankroll, is a great idea that generally injects me with euphoria.

As you know the spider is an insect that weaves its own web, dead sure that it will catch an insect "some time in future", and then goes to the center of the web and rests or sleeps or patiently waits. Similarly, when faced with a losing streak of extra-ordinary nature, the best way is to give one hard, final look to your ratings file (mine is in Excel), correct obvious "errors" if you can spot them and correlate in the light of new evidnece, mark all horses that "will be a live force over a "particular" distance or with a "better" jockey, or both" (in the worst confidence level scenario, I recommed the "both" option) and like a spider simply wait for those situations "completely disregarding all other handicapping effort" (this is VERY IMPORTANT, don't try to brace your ego by trying to do something that has not been working at the moment).

You will find that soon you will have many reasons to smile and your confidence in your knowledge, methods and figures will be restored.

Frankly, I cannot overstate the importance of this method.

IT WORKS WONDERS!!!