Layoff logic

[46zilzal]

Backing a layoff horse is an "iffy" proposition since you are depending upon past performances that are not recent. You have to "fill in the blanks" when considering just WHY the layoff was undertaken and what has the trainer done to get his charge back to the game today. What WAS that horse like, and what WILL it be like today. At Keeneland today (10/08), similar layoff logic in projecting to today's pace totally BOMBED in the 6th (Bwana Charlie) but was successful in the 8th (Host).

Anytime that one is considering a layoff horse it has to be at least 4 or 5 to 1 to make that "iffiness" worthwhile.

I want to ask the group what guidelines they use to consider these horses.

Here are some of mine: 1) has done well after a layoff before 2) blade runners (turfers) do better than dirt horses 3) it helps that the trainer is a one of the better ones and 4) sprinters don't do as well as routers.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I try tro find the reason for a layoff, usually looking for a physical problem that has been corrected. If the horses does not workout the same way as prior to the layoff I am suspicious.

[Tom]

1. The horse was a debut winner.

2. No other horses intoday's race have recent, sharp races that are better than par

3. The horse is not comprimised by running style ( front runner who figures to duel wtih other fit horses) I really like closers who are fresh of a layoff and who face a hotly contested pace today - that one late run is not as hard on the horse as a prolonged on pace race.

[cnollfan]

It all depends. I thought Bwana Charlie was an easy elimination today. Not just because he was coming off a layoff, but because he had done nothing all year. Breeders Cup, layoff, loss, layoff, loss, layoff -- a horse talented enough to run in the Breeders' Cup who earns virtually no purse money the following year has problems.

OTOH, at Hawthorne, I liked True Honor in the 8th, a 5000 N3L claimer. He was 0 for 12 the last two years and hadn't run since May, when he got beat 20 lengths twice in a row at this class. But he had four sharp workouts in a month, noteworthy for this cheap an animal; had the rail, there wasn't much speed in the race, and was a big price. Lost a heartbreaker.

[BetHorses!]

Layoffs don't bother me if the horse exceeds my oddsline. Before I made a line I liked to see at least one 5/8 or longer workout.

[DrugSalvastore]

I have two sayings that I ALWAYS use regarding thoroughbred handicapping, and they are very corny sounding sayings.....they are...

#1. Circumstances dictate outcomes.

#2. Each horse is it's own entity.

BELIEVE THEM BOTH!!!

Here is what I look for when evaluating a layoff horse.

#1. How well does this horse run fresh? I simply want to know how well the horse ran in his debut and how well the horse performed in other starts off of similar layoffs.

#2. How does the trainer perform with layoff types? If you have a trainer like Justin Nixon, who according to Simulcast Weekly, is 16-for-32 (50%) off of a 120+ day layoff, I think you have to feel pretty good about the horse's chances. If you have a bad layoff trainer, it's hard to feel as upbeat.

#3. How ambitious is the horse being spotted? If we are talking about a claiming race...I am very discouraged when they are dropped steeply in class. It's really a very positive sign when a layoff horse is spotted ambitiously. The single most exciting individual performance I've seen from a horse in my lifetime actually came in 1999 when Mazel Trick won the Grade 2 Triple Bend Handicap, off a seven month layoff, in blowout fashion. He ran the seven furlongs in a track record 1:19 and change and the performance was visually AMAZING! The fact he was entered in a Gr.2 by Bobby Frankel off that long layoff, was a tip of the hand that this horse was ready to run.

#4. What might have caused this kind of layoff? It's a much more positive sign when the layoff was planned in advance by the horses conections. But, most layoffs are the result of injury or setback. It would be nice if we could always find out what kind of injury or setback the horse is coming back from.

#5. Is the toteboard providing any clues as to how well the horse might perform? If a horse is taking an alarmingly high amount of money real early on in the betting---someone probably knows something positive about this horse. He may have really impressed his connections or clockers with strong workouts, or people close to the horse are so confident that the horse is healthy and will fire his best shot, that they are willing to bet their own money to find out. If a layoff horse is alarmingly dead on the toteboard, than I take that as being a negative sign.

#6. Does the layoff horse fit the "Sheet Player" pattern of being a first time 4yo off a long layoff? I've heard from "respected" sheet players that this angle is one of their favorites, and while I'm not a fan of any kind of "angles", after researching this angle, I've found, in general, that new 4yo's off a layoff do tend to perform better than 3yo's or older horses entering a race off a layoff. I'll include this one on here because if I am going to bet a layoff horse, I might marginally increase the size of my bet if he fits this pattern.

After this process--you should have a pretty good guess as to how well the horse might perform--at that point, it's now a matter of comparing him with the other runners in the field.

[plainolebill]

"#2. How does the trainer perform with layoff types? If you have a trainer like Justin Nixon, who according to Simulcast Weekly, is 16-for-32 (50%) off of a 120+ day layoff, I think you have to feel pretty good about the horse's chances. If you have a bad layoff trainer, it's hard to feel as upbeat."

I think this is the key. Some trainer's horses run their very best races after a layoff. Baffert's horses fire hard first after layoff and are sometimes very good to bet against 2nd after lay.

In the Ancient Title today, Bilo, who had run a very strong comeback race predictably flopped. Jones does very well with a comebacker and not nearly as well 2nd time. Bilo did run a big new top last out but Jones' stats reinforced my opinion that the horse was vulnerable.

[ezpace]

I think a fairly good job is done with trainer layoff statistics EXCEPT E- types... They can find the right pace scenario where the trainers instructions to the jock we're break good and see what we got ..he'll probably need one. ..and he catches a couple speed types going out of form..and cruises home winner...butt until he catches the right pace scenario it flaws the L/O record IMO.. A trainer who develops a lot of colts with E type such as Baffert ,Lukas. and many others can have lousy layoff records.because of this factor. IMVHO....

[CapperLou]

OTOH, at Hawthorne, I liked True Honor in the 8th, a 5000 N3L claimer. He was 0 for 12 the last two years and hadn't run since May, when he got beat 20 lengths twice in a row at this class. But he had four sharp workouts in a month, noteworthy for this cheap an animal; had the rail, there wasn't much speed in the race, and was a big price. Lost a heartbreaker.[/QUOTE]


Looked like money in the bank until deep stretch!!! Darn, a tough one to lose, but you were not the only one around here on it--still can't believe it, but that's how they turn out sometimes.

All the best,

CapperLou

[Tom]

CapperLou said: "Looked like money in the bank until deep stretch!!! ..."


Do you realize what a rich man I would be if they moved that damned finish line 20 feet either direction? :eek:

[Geekyguy]

I see a lot of the usual advice, a lot of it good.

My two cents:

1. Is the horse entered properly? If the race looks like a prep, odds are it is.

2. Is it competitive? Often related to placement (see above), I want a horse who can win off of its best effort.

3. Has it done well in or won its debut or other races off a layoff?

4. If it is a young horse (3 or 4), is it expensive, with good connections, and entered on a "big day" undercard? (these can be very dangerous since the trainer often unveils them when the pools are huge). Also, if it figures to mature off the layoff (especially on turf), watch out, especially if the trainer is a turf specialist (who will often school the horse at 2 or 3 and get serious a year later).

5. Is the trainer competent with layoff types?

6. Is the horse the obvious choice? (I usually throw it out if it is).

[lsbets]

With long layoffs, I primarily look at

1) Who is the trainer, and

2) What type of race is the horse entered in. If its a claiming race and the horse had been competitive in allowances before the layoff, I figure the horse got injured, is healthy enough to run again, and the trainer wants to lose the horse. If the horse comes back at the same level, I figure the horse took a break to freshen up and is probably ready to race with similar ability to before. If the horse was running in stakes and comes back in an allowance, I figure the trainer wants to see how the horse does and plans on heading back to stakes races.

To me, it really comes down to the trainer and if he has a history of getting horses to fire off a layoff and what it appears his goals for the race are.

[Tee]

Dates

First thing I look at is when was the horse's last race.

What is today's date(how long has the horse been away.)

Now for the in btwn date. When did the horse start working again?

Next I look at the worktab. Has the horse been working steadily? Are there any gaps in the pattern?

I don't pay much attention to the times unless something jumps up that is out of the norm for the particular trainer or horse.

A steady, consistent work tab is much more important imo than the clockings.

Now with that information processed - I handicap just like any other race.

[Geekyguy]

With long layoffs, I primarily look at

1) Who is the trainer, and

2) What type of race is the horse entered in. If its a claiming race and the horse had been competitive in allowances before the layoff, I figure the horse got injured, is healthy enough to run again, and the trainer wants to lose the horse. If the horse comes back at the same level, I figure the horse took a break to freshen up and is probably ready to race with similar ability to before. If the horse was running in stakes and comes back in an allowance, I figure the trainer wants to see how the horse does and plans on heading back to stakes races.

To me, it really comes down to the trainer and if he has a history of getting horses to fire off a layoff and what it appears his goals for the race are.

Sometimes the trainer wants to make the horse eligible for starter handicaps, like they did with Bolting Holme at Mountaineer Park off a three year layoff in 1989, entering him for $5,000, where no one claimed him, and he went on to dominate the starter ranks for the next year or so.

[Blackgold]

In '99 I was fortunate enough to enjoy a year's severance from a company I worked for most of the '90s.

I devloted much time to the Layoff runner and everyday looked for such opportunities in both the then, AM and PM edition of the form.

I believe I posted about this before and probably in greater detail as I can't find my old records today, still unpacking from the hurricane evacuation.

Anyway, here are a couple keys I found successful.

1. The runner must have some back class. With that in mind, I was most successful at claiming and ALnw1 and 2. I think I was most successful here, because it is much easier to understand the "class" of the runners in these events. Of course, MDN to MCL is a class drop, yet I could only get 20% winners here.

2. I looked for 3 workouts within 15 days. I waived this for MDN to MCL if it was 2nd lifetime race and found trainers sometimes work these runners on the farm.

3. Success at the distance was another thing I looked for. And on the subject of distance, I did better in routes than sprints. I've read it's easier for a runner to have their first after a layoff in a route because they don't need that early burst to be competitive as in a sprint.

4. My best ROI was in turf claiming, then ALnw1. My worse ROI was in maiden races.

You can serch this forum for my earlier post and it is probably more detailed.

ATM magazine did a series of articles on Layoffs and I think you can order them seperately. It broke it down by sprint, route, turf, filly, etc.

Still today, the publc let's layoff runners go off at much higher odds than their true odds.

[JohnGalt1]

I agree with the above suggestions.

Another one I find helpful is after a long layoff to look up breeding for first time starters. A long layoff is like a first time starter. It's definately not a primary factor but if a high % trainer and a horse sired by Storm Cat combined with strong races after layoffs are stonger plays. A horse sired by an F sire like Free House is down graded

I use Sire Stats.

[BIG49010]

Breeding that's interesting, I may check that out I have a database with sire, I will check with layoffs how they do. Thanks for idea

[falconridge]

I like young horses, especially fillies, returning in maiden special-weights or high-priced maiden-claimers following up-the-track losses in their career debuts. Some might call this an angle, though I believe it to be based on sound handicapping logic. Here's why: a common ailment among two- and even three-year-olds is bucked shins--usually not a serious or career-threatening condition, but painful enough to compromise the performance of any horse so afflicted. Usually, recovery requires only time away from the racing wars--anywhere from several weeks to a few months. If the work tab of the comebacker shows a logical conditioning pattern--regularly spaced, frequent workouts (say, every six to ten days, with no "gaps"; speed doesn't matter--in fact, I prefer no "bullets") over at least three to four weeks--or one that is consistent with the trainer's past successes with other charges, there is no reason to believe the freshened youngster won't return as good as, if not better than, ever. In fact, once the young'uns get over their childhood maladies, they often show apparently dramatic reversals of form--and at prices lush enough to warrant your risking a little green.

I wouldn't take too much to heart the trainer stats that appear beneath the work tabs in the Form, as these are often based on short samples or don't allow for the kind of distinctions I've described in the paragraph above. That minus ROI for horses returning from layoffs of 90+ days might include older, infirm drop-downs; horses being legged up for a next-out effort under conditions more suitable than today's; or animals with other "red-flag" markers in their PP's. Nor would I put too much stock in the "well backed in debut" angle, as this may indicate only that the horse hails from a betting barn that sent it in on a small-pool race. What's more, it will likely hurt your price, and may just be "I'm a big shot" action rather than genuinely "smart" money.

I don't see any reason this approach shouldn't be just as successful with returning colts or geldings, but for some reason I've always had more luck with fillies. In any event, good hunting and good 'capping.

--Falcon "Buck" Ridge

[BetHorses!]

Good Post Falconridge

[twindouble]

falconridge; Excellent post.

It does border on an angle only because that type of information is tough to be had. Workouts, trainers is basic handicapping and I liked what you said. " risk a little green on the young ones." There's no question one can if they are lucky enough cash a nice ticket on under those conditions.

"I wouldn't take too much to heart the trainer stats that appear beneath the work tabs in the Form, as these are often based on short samples or don't allow for the kind of distinctions I've described in the paragraph above."

The above is another good point.

I have to admit long layoffs have been a thorn in my side right along but I've learned not to toss these horses out of hand, ESP today. Lightly raced seems to have caught on as a trend in graded races where the money is but when these horses have any kind of success they retire from racing. That sucks to no end.


Good luck,

T.D.

[toetoe]

Marc Cramer has a way to whittle down the any-second-timer-period angle --- now a 3-y-o, first start was as a 2-y-o, decent trainer, or spec. at this, well-bet in first start. Sometimes I wonder, when a fave is beaten in his debut, whether it will work out for the best, as he will be a lock next time, and who knows? ... he may key a serial 'killing'. Just a thought.

[Overlay]

The type of real-world, what-is-he-doing-in-this-race analytical approach contained in Falconridge's last post gives an indication of why I valued his insights so highly on our mutual sojourns to the SoCal tracks in our college days, before I started down the more quantitative road I've taken over the last twenty-five years. It's obvious his skills haven't dulled with time.

[JackS]

My simple adjustment for layoffs is to up their tote odds or ML.
For the "can't be beat" type (which are beat half the time by my estimation), I always make the odds 1-1. But since todays horse has been layed-off, I double this and make him 2-1.
If a contender in a contentious race, a little "mental" boost in acceptible odds based on contention ranking among the other contenders.
The advantage of doing it this way, it eliminates time pondering "should I ?,shouldn't I ?" which when you think about it, is a total waste of time. Take your wins and accept your defeats as normal and hopefully that in the long run ,profits exceed investments.