Slow paced Belmont?

[highnote]

Does anyone have an opinion about the pace of the Belmont? It seemed slow compared to other races on the card. Of course, it was the only mile and a half race on the card. But it looked like they were walking into the first turn. The pace seemed to quicken up the backstretch.

[Observer]

Despite severely stumbling at the start and getting clobbered by Magic Weisner, I though War Emblem had an opportunity to get into a nice spot as they entered the clubhouse turn, only Espinoza went to an unbelievable strangle-hold. Who knows what would have happened if War Emblem was not completely removed from his game like that by the bad start and attempted rating tactics by Espinoza.

Why, if the opportunity was there to go to the front, would a rider not let the horse run? Had Espinoza seized that opportunity going into the clubhouse turn, it is my belief that War Emblem wouldn't have gotten trapped down on the rail, either. I don't think this is the kind of horse that likes to be in and among horses, and that's why I thought the outside draw was great for him.

You never see guys like Jerry Bailey, Pat Day, Gary Stevens, Chris McCarron, John Velazquez or Edgar Prado with their feet in the dashboard like Espinoza did in the Belmont, or like he did in the Preakness.

Obviously the stumbling start didn't help, but to not let this horse settle into his rhythm was a mistake. Any horse that is inhibited from getting into a rhythm is compromised from running his best race. There is a difference between getting a horse to relax and settle, as opposed to fighting with the horse and wasting energy.

With that said, I do think the pace for the Belmont was relatively slow. And it did visually seem to pick up down the backstretch as War Emblem got through to make progress along the rail. The final time of the race was nothing exciting .. 2:29.71. Since War Emblem stumbled, then was hard-held from going after the pacesetters, there was no need for anyone else on the front to overextend. Their riders made the right call by letting their horses cruise comfortably.

[Richard]

IMHO,Espinoza saw that WE was in trouble coming out of the stretch and eased him back.He was lokking out for the horse and basically did right given the situation.

[JimG]

After stumbling at the start, had Espinoza not put a "stranglehold" on War Emblem and just let him rush up like the horse wanted to, he would have run the first quarter a second to a second and a half faster than any other horse in the race. If War Emblem had been "allowed" to do that, he would have quit even more miserably than he did. The fast pace for him would have taken its toll.

After watching thousands of races and seeing horses stumble at the break, the jockeys that rush their horses to the front always fade in the last part of the race due to running so fast to get to the front.

In my opinion, Espinoza did the right thing, it just did not work out due to the horses refusal to be rated and probable reluctance to having dirt kicked in his face..


Jim

[andicap]

Yeah, the race was over for WE when he stumbled. His natural running style is to be in front. If you rush him to be front, as JimG said, you use it too much energy. If you hold him back and try to conserve energy and gradually get him back into the race, he'll use up energy fighting the jockey, being "rank" I think it's called.
Either way the horse is a goner once it gets to the stretch especially in a 12f race.

BTW, horses were winning from off the pace all day yesterday in the longer races so WE was up against it anyway.

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by andicap
Yeah, the race was over for WE when he stumbled. His natural running style is to be in front.

Yes, that's probably right. But he did get a nice break when they let him have the inside and the lead on the backstretch. I was surprised (and disappointed) that he faded so quickly after that.

AD

[Observer]

I did not say Espinoza should have rushed War Emblem to the lead, and I did not mean Espinoza should have let War Emblem go full throttle for the lead either. I'm smart enough to know that would certainly spell disaster after such a horrendous start.

As I said, "There is a difference between getting a horse to relax and settle, as opposed to fighting with the horse and wasting energy. "

There are ways to get horses to relax and settle down into a more rhythmical stride than pull hard on their face, as Espinoza was doing, which is what typically makes a horse "rank." That is why I said you never see guys like Bailey, etc., riding with their feet in the dashboard. They have a kinder, gentler hand that coaxes the horse.

[superfecta]

This would make sense if the other logical contenders were ever in the hunt,but they were nowhere.Except for the fact DWL crippled another one,where were the others?
that was the strangest run race i've seen.Espinoza is trying to rate his horse,so he never got good stride(I began to think the horse was hurt),No pressure from PC,Sunday break comes from way back,no Perfect drift late,MDO runs like a champ and Sarava runs to the lead.The only horse than ran close to his profile was Magic weisner.Really strange....

[JimG]

The point is War Emblem could not relax. He wants to be out front. Put Bailey, Day, Stevens, or whoever on the horse and have him stumble out of the gate and the same thing would have happened. To blame Espinoza in my opinion is unfair.


Jim

[so.cal.fan]

I agree with Jim G. With that kind of a trip, he had NO chance.

[Tom]

I agree Espinoza was not to blame for the outcome. The more subtle point here, I think, is that WE is a very good horse, but not a great horse. Seatle Slew overcame a poor break during his triple crown run and still won. Triple Crowns are for champions, not good horses. WE is not a champion. Not his fault, he beat what showed up,but nothing really of any great shakes showed up this year. I think it will be a long time if ever for the next triple crown winner.
BTW, anyone hear what happened with Proud Citizen?
Has Lukas assigned the blame to anyone yet?

[so.cal.fan]

BTW, anyone hear what happened with Proud Citizen?
Has Lukas assigned the blame to anyone yet?


__________________
Tom:
I know it looked bad. Hope he is not finished.
A guy at Hollywood Park, a radio talk show host, told us
BEFORE the race Proud Citizen was SORE and should not be running. Don't know where he got his information, but he was sure right.:(

[BillW]

Tom and So.Cal,

For what it's worth BRIS handicappers edge in their race recap last night:


"Proud Citizen (Gone West), who was fifth, was pulled up afterward and vanned off for examination. Dr. Larry Bramlage said the injury didn't appear to be serious."

[Figman]

Here's one guy that had it pegged in his analysis BEFORE the race.
His name is Dick Powell and he used to be a NYRA employee before moving on to the Fair Grounds.
http://www.fgno.com/racing/dickspicks.html

[JimG]

Bet Dick Powell is smiling all the way to the bank. Thanks Figman for the link.


Jim

[andicap]

Yeah, but he missed the exacta. Ya call that handicapping?:D


On top, that's great pickin'

[rrbauer]

so.cal.fan wrote:
"BTW, anyone hear what happened with Proud Citizen?
Has Lukas assigned the blame to anyone yet? "

Crack in his shin bone. Wayne will have him ready again in no time. There were rumors flying around at Belmont that Elvis was in the building....but, I'm thinking it was Antley!

[PaceAdvantage]

Did Lukas train Imadeed, or the horse that fell over her, Pleasant County??

On Friday, the day before the Belmont, did Lukas train Renegade Warrior, or the horse that fell over him, Windsor Lodge???

The answer to all these questions is a resounding NO.

Amazingly enough, horses find many ways to kill or injure themselves on the track, with no help from the trainer at all. This sad fact was on display in all it's disgusting and gory glory this weekend at Belmont Park.

Interestingly, there was heavy, HEAVY rain on Thursday, combined with a possible Triple Crown bid on Saturday. Do you think they were messing with the track at all??? Nah......


==PA

[PaceAdvantage]

As for Espinoza's ride on Saturday....I suggest to those who feel he rode a good race, given the circumstances, think again, and watch the replay again.

He was strangling this horse so forcefully down the backstretch, that War Emblem was not only taken completely out of his game by Espinoza, BUT he had to fight the freakin' jockey to boot halfway down the backstretch. Do you guys think this was the proper way to get War Emblem to go 1 1/2 miles....tire him out by fighting with him for half the race???

Everyone including the jockey knows this horse likes to be at or near the front. What was he thinking with his feet in the dashboard like that??? I mean, watch the race again, and watch how War Emblem was fighting him!!! How can you guys say this was good for the horse??

You can't just assume that given his head, War Emblem would have tired in a worse and earlier fashion. Horse racing isn't that linear.


==PA

[Tom]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage

Amazingly enough, horses find many ways to kill or injure themselves on the track, with no help from the trainer at all. This sad fact was on display in all it's disgusting and gory glory this weekend at Belmont Park.
=PA

The NY Post featured a photo of the horse lying dead on the track with the jockey standing over him. Pretty sick, I thought. Hope that photographer is real happy with his worthless contribution to the sport. And the sports editor at the Post must be a real winner, too. I sent him my feelings about it in exactly three words.
:mad:

[highnote]

PA,
I had similar feelings about the way WE's jock rode him. Just because the horse broke poorly doesn't mean WE's style had to be changed.

You never know what Baffert told him beforehand. Maybe he told him to rate WE by any means possible. Maybe it wouldn't have made any difference to the outcome if WE had run his race? We can only speculate.

I saw Jerry Bailey strangle a horse like that and still win, so maybe it's a reasonable strategy. Of course, Bailey's horse was a closer; WE is a front-runner.

I didn't have a good feeling about the race so I didn't bet it. I didn't have a good feeling about the race the year Lemon Drop Kid won it, either, but I bet it and lost. I try not to make the same mistake twice - but it's tough not to make the same mistakes twice in horseracing. :)

I bet against WE in the KY Derby and Preakness. I didn't want to bet against him again and lose.