Beyer Speed Figs: Did You Know...?

[xfile]

Beyer Speed Figs were actually the creation of Sheldon Kovitz, a mathematician at Harvard in the 1960's. Andy Beyer learned the method and refined it 10 years later. This factual info is found in a Davidowitz book. :cool:

[Buddha]

yea, i believe that it has been discussed here before.

[cj]

I think it was in the original Beyer book as well, he didn't keep that a secret or anything.

[xfile]

I think it was in the original Beyer book as well, he didn't keep that a secret or anything.
As you probably figured out I'm not a big Beyer fan. Everybody and their brother looks at the figures so how can they be of value. I focus on horses who go to post at 8-1 or higher. Obviously these are not horses with the best beyers yet my ROI is there every year. I just don't believe in the figures. :cool:

[the little guy]

As you probably figured out I'm not a big Beyer fan. Everybody and their brother looks at the figures so how can they be of value. I focus on horses who go to post at 8-1 or higher. Obviously these are not horses with the best beyers yet my ROI is there every year. I just don't believe in the figures. :cool:You don't believe the figures.....I don't believe your " ROI is there every year " unless of course " there " is somewhere around .67 on the dollar.

[kev]

Your silly, I don't know one person who plays the highest beyer in its last race, everyone knows it won't make you any money, they will win about 26% of the time. You say everyone knows about them, right and what ever your using for capping everyone knows about also. I use The sheets and Thorograph, alot of people know about those two compaines and there are some serious players from those two. It's not what you use it's how you use it. The winner of the past big capping contest was a Thorograph user and last time I checked they use figuers (form cappers ).

[Fastracehorse]

What makes speed figures so awesome is that the Beyer is not always a fair reflection of the horse's true ability.

A large majority of players love Beyers - and hand-crafted figs can differ markedly.

fffastt

[kev]

Here's a question to all..........I don't go out to the OTB anymore, but when I did I didn't see alot of people using the DRF, most had in house programs. Do you guys/gals see many people using the DRF in which the Beyers are in there?? From what I read on here alot of people use bris or some other form of PP's.

[Overlay]

As you probably figured out I'm not a big Beyer fan. Everybody and their brother looks at the figures so how can they be of value. I focus on horses who go to post at 8-1 or higher. Obviously these are not horses with the best beyers yet my ROI is there every year. I just don't believe in the figures. :cool:


In my opinion, Beyers have not lost their effectiveness as an indicator of winning potential. It's just that so many bettors key on them, and use them to the exclusion of other fundamental handicapping factors, that (as xfile notes) they've lost their pari-mutuel value. But if you give the figures their proper weight as part of an appropriate combination of other correctly-proportioned basic variables, they are still very useful in locating instances where a horse is being sent off at odds which are higher than they should be, based on the horse's actual likelihood of winning. And this also provides you with the added bonus of no longer having to continually keep searching for new or better handicapping information or angles in order to stay one step ahead of the public.

[xfile]

Your silly, I don't know one person who plays the highest beyer in its last race, everyone knows it won't make you any money, they will win about 26% of the time. You say everyone knows about them, right and what ever your using for capping everyone knows about also. I use The sheets and Thorograph, alot of people know about those two compaines and there are some serious players from those two. It's not what you use it's how you use it. The winner of the past big capping contest was a Thorograph user and last time I checked they use figuers (form cappers ).

I meant beyer figures. I agree with your choice of figs. I believe the sheets are great figures. I use the Yeast program. Only a handful of people bought the program before the creator passed away. Too bad because he was a genius.

[kev]

When you say things like that about the Beyers, are you talking about people just looking at the last race?? They need to read books like speed to spare and the Odds must be crazy, and learn form reading and you could do alot better I bet doing that than by betting just on a horses last race. Then again it's a lazy way of capping by just looking at one number.

[Turntime]

xfile:

Sheldon got the idea from Arnold T. Howe who gave him a series of articles written by Pat Cabell in the late 60's for ATM. You can read the details from my old post titled 'Beyer Speed Figures'. Beyer did no such refining, the numbers are an almost exact copy of Pat Cabell's. What Beyer did was popularize the method and change the course of handicapping history.

[Valuist]

I would say its a mistake to totally dismiss the Beyers. First off, its not only about the last race. When I did a study on them 10 years ago, the "back Beyer" plays were outperforming the last race Beyer plays. The back Beyer plays were showing a profit in sprints and a fairly sizable profit in dirt routes. Their only unprofitable area was on the turf.

[xfile]

xfile:

Sheldon got the idea from Arnold T. Howe who gave him a series of articles written by Pat Cabell in the late 60's for ATM. You can read the details from my old post titled 'Beyer Speed Figures'. Beyer did no such refining, the numbers are an almost exact copy of Pat Cabell's. What Beyer did was popularize the method and change the course of handicapping history.

So, in a sense, Beyer is a hack???? :confused:

[PaceAdvantage]

The Beyer bashing is getting old....filled with repetitive tones and monotonous voices....

[NoDayJob]

The Beyer bashing is getting old....filled with repetitive tones and monotonous voices....

:lol: Aw jeeeez, that's too bad, because Andy bashing is fun, fun, fun. Besides he and his buds could care less. They laugh all the way to the bank, while most poor slobs who use his numbers are slowly going broke. :lol:

NDJ [AKA Troll #1]

[kenwoodallpromos]

I agree! Any chance of a discussion how to better use them?

[Turntime]

PA:

Who's bashing Beyer?

xfile:

I wouldn't call him a hack, more like a genius.

[midnight]

The Beyer numbers are just as indicative of a horse's winning potential as they were 10 years ago. And just like 10 years ago, they're overbet. There hasn't been any value in Beyer figures since they were in the DRF, and there wasn't much when they were exclusive to Racing Times.

It's like anything else. If it's any good, enough people are going to get hold of it and bet enough money to negate its value as a standalone.

[Suff]

Do you guys/gals see many people using the DRF in which the Beyers are in there?? From what I read on here alot of people use bris or some other form of PP's.

When I go to Suffolk I see about 35%-40% of the people using the DRF. How many of them use Beyers, or to what degree, is anyone's guess.

The main tool I see people use at the track is the $3.00 equibase program that has 20ish tracks in it.

[Valuist]

That's what I mostly see; when I'm not at home betting. People love those simulcast programs with a zillion tracks, with a whole 4 past performance lines and print so small that even people with 20/15 vision need a magnifying glass.

[Suff]

That's what I mostly see; when I'm not at home betting. People love those simulcast programs with a zillion tracks, with a whole 4 past performance lines and print so small that even people with 20/15 vision need a magnifying glass.
:D

I look at a race in that thing it and looks like a field full of lightly raced Three year olds. 2,3 or 4 running lines. Then I look at the Lifetime stats and see they are all 11 for 53!.

They put 12 horse's on a page sometimes and it looks like a field of 2nd time starters.

[dav4463]

I agree! Any chance of a discussion how to better use them?


Here is a way. Circle the top 4 last race Beyers, top 4 last three race Beyers, and the top 4 back Beyers (more than three races back) in each race. Then circle the top 4 trainer/jockey combos. Look for a horse that ranks first or second in any one of the categories and you have narrowed the field down quickly to contenders. Try to beat the #1 last race Beyer and look for value. The whole key is value and the Beyers or any other good speed figure can help you win. There are many top last race Beyer horses that win also and many at odds over 4-1, so pick your spots if you play any of them, but try to beat the top last out Beyer if possible. Most longshot contenders won't even rank top four in last race Beyer, but will probably rank first or second in last three Beyer or back Beyers. There are numerous ways to use them properly, this is just one that I use a variation of and it puts me on plenty of decent winners, most over 4-1.

Here is another way. Rank the horses same as above, trainer/jockey combo top 4, last race Beyer top 4, last three races Beyer top 4, back Beyer top 4.....add the rankings, if a horse does not rank top 4 in one of the four categories, give him a 6. Example: 2nd best last race Beyer=2, best last three races Beyer= 1, back Beyer unranked=6, trainer/jockey combo fourth best=4...horse would get a total of 13......

Most playable horses (oddswise) are those that score at least 12 points. Try to find a couple of key horses at 12 points or higher, second key horse should be 15 or higher, real longshots you think have a chance can be considered with 19+ points. The key is to avoid races that have a couple of horses that score less than 10, one of them will probably win. Borrego scored 11 points and was an almost-play...value on the top Beyer horse could have made him a play since I didn't see a 15 point horse that looked like a win possibility so there are exceptions. Avoid playing horses that score 10 or less for sure though, they are usually the favorite. Pass if you think a horse is just too good to be beat and he scores 10 or less.

The key is value as in all handicapping, but the Beyers can be useful in this approach.

[Light]

You guys are talking about something that doesn't exist. I don't know anyone in the country that uses Beyer figs and no other handicapping factor(s) exclusively to make a bet day in and day out.That discipline would elude a buddhist monk let alone a beer drinking,pot bellied,no IQ,smelly ass capper.

[Speed Figure]

I think the best way to use the beyers is. If you don't like them don't use them. :rolleyes:

[andicap]

You guys are talking about something that doesn't exist. I don't know anyone in the country that uses Beyer figs and no other handicapping factor(s) exclusively to make a bet day in and day out.That discipline would elude a buddhist monk let alone a beer drinking,pot bellied,no IQ,smelly ass capper.

I think they're talking about some easy down and dirty ways to use them for basically fun, not real serious wagers. Who hasn't gotten caught sometimes at an OTB or track with just a DRF and no other info to go on -- you use the Beyers and some common sense handicapping, although I would prefer in that instance to at least have a pace figure that a few programs (like NYRA's) give you.

I'll never forget the day my wife and I got our times wrong for our trip (we thought it was 11 a.m., it was 11 p.m.) at JFK and had a whole day to kill. Aqueduct!! All I had was Post Parade with its pace/speed figs. I actually won because I concentrated super strong on those races and found key overlays to build bets around.

[toetoe]

Okay, Light. How about in the city. Anybody?

Your humble asscapper,
TT

[JackS]

Perhaps the Track rating plus Variant has now surpassed the Beyer number in terms of profit or less loss due to the over use of the Beyer's?
Even if the Beyer (should) is more predictive of eventual winners, isn't it possible that more attention should be paid to these two numbers instead of the Beyer ? Does anyone have stats on these factors?

[JackS]

As Andi noted, a couple of years ago I was attempting to cap a turf race that was taken off the turf and would be run on the dirt.
After a few attempts to put some meaningful dirt numbers on these turfers, I finally gave up.
Determined to play the race anyway, I started looking for the highest Beyer dirt rating and caught a $37 dollar horse.

[DrugSalvastore]

You don't believe the figures.....I don't believe your " ROI is there every year " unless of course " there " is somewhere around .67 on the dollar.

I can't believe I've actually went 231 posts here without doing a free-style rap post. Probably because I really don't know anyone here yet. Here's my freestyle rap post in honor of The Little Guy. I'll do a little '2Pac I Hit Em Up' theme to it.


Grab your glock when ya see Little Andy......
Call the cops when ya see Little Andy......
Ya punks knocked him five times but ya didn't finish.....
Now ya bout to feel the WRATH of a menace!.....

Now I'ma break it down and tell you a story, about a little Jew from New York who dines with Migliore. 'Lil Andy is the name he goes by, and he's quick to call you on your lie, about your so called "sky-high ROI." Boy, you should know by now, no one screws with The Little Guy.

AKA....The czar of the seminar, the spoken word of Little Andy goes far. But when he takes a big stand against the chalk...they tend to win by the length of a city block. He thinks he's spotted a trap, but the next thing ya know, he's wearing the dunce cap. But that's okay, because he plays the game the right way, you can't beat the game if you're always on the short priced underlay.

Grab your glock when ya see Little Andy......
Call the cops when ya see Little Andy......
Ya punks knocked him five times but ya didn't finish.....
Now ya bout to feel the WRATH of a menace!.....

Trips to France for the Arc, you had to figure him the type to mingle with the likes of Jacques Chirac. But, with Little Andy it's all expenses paid from the winning horses he's played, gold trophies in his house for all the girls that he laid.

Yet, they say he's getting old, going bold, losing a step, looking like Elvis Costello.....but it's never wise to underestimate the little fellow. He's not quite yet another decrepit old has-been...that veteran war horse still has some run.

TLG, that's the acronym...and the dude's still whacken em, just like John Gotti but with a much more anorexic looking body. Peace!!

Grab your glock when ya see Little Andy......
Call the cops when ya see Little Andy......
Ya punks knocked him five times but ya didn't finish.....
Now ya bout to feel the WRATH of a menace!.....

[NoDayJob]

You guys are talking about something that doesn't exist. I don't know anyone in the country that uses Beyer figs and no other handicapping factor(s) exclusively to make a bet day in and day out.That discipline would elude a buddhist monk let alone a beer drinking,pot bellied,no IQ,smelly ass capper.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

NDJ [AKA Troll #1]

[Fastracehorse]

I think Joe Takach's ( sp? ) notes on the use of speed figures is enlightening.

If you haven't read the article here on PA give it a try.

fffastt

[kenwoodallpromos]

You have given me a lot of food for thought. I was thinking about last 3 Beyers so your post has given me a real start, especially in using Beyer numbers to look at longshots!
I do not any angle or method alone. I would miss too much, but sometimes a limited number of variables show themselves to be very powerful.
I look at trainer/jockey angles much more in the turf than dirt, and early speed and figures to take a stab at sprints of less than 6f.

[PaceAdvantage]

Now I'ma break it down and tell you a story, about a little Jew from New York who dines with Migliore. 'Lil Andy is the name he goes by, and he's quick to call you on your lie, about your so called "sky-high ROI." Boy, you should know by now, no one screws with The Little Guy.

Your talent has no boundaries.

[dav4463]

Another good way to use the Beyers is to PICK ONE HORSE from the top 4 last race Beyers as Horse A, Horse B,C, and sometimes D MUST come from the other horses. Use the non-picked top 4 Beyer horses underneath in exotics only unless you can toss one or more with a negative class move, poor jockey or trainer, etc.. Make an odds line on your three or four choices. Most longshots come from horses that are not ranked top 4 last race Beyer. Your D horse should be a major longshot only.... if you have four contenders.

[Tom]

I think Joe Takach's ( sp? ) notes on the use of speed figures is enlightening.

If you haven't read the article here on PA give it a try.

fffastt


fffasttt - which article is that?

[v_d_g]

Yet, they say he's getting old, going bold, losing a step, looking like Elvis Costello.....but it's never wise to underestimate the little fellow. He's not quite yet another decrepit old has-been...that veteran war horse still has some run.

.....

Yeah, definitely Elvis Costello rather than Phil Collins (my original choice).

[DrugSalvastore]

Yeah, definitely Elvis Costello rather than Phil Collins (my original choice).

lol...Phil Collins! Both Phil Collins and Tupac had songs called Against All Odds. I'm much more of a Tupac guy personally...atleast of those two choices.

[turfbar]

That's what I mostly see; when I'm not at home betting. People love those simulcast programs with a zillion tracks, with a whole 4 past performance lines and print so small that even people with 20/15 vision need a magnifying glass.

Those are the same people who watch NASCAR races
:D
Turfbar

[Fastracehorse]

If you cannot find it I'll try.

One of Takach's articles: On speed figs and pro players.

Takach isn't 100 % sold on turf figs - it's a good read.

fffastt