Am I nuts?

[anotherdave]

Okay, perhaps the subject line will encourage responses I don't want, but I can take it.

The reason I think I may be nuts is tomorrow I am planning on betting a horse in a maiden race who is 0 for 24. Now at first glance I kicked this horse out mostly because of that fact. But after I ran my figures I realized he was my top choice. And he should be decent odds (ML 6-1).

It scares me, but I think I have to bet him. Hell, it looks like I'd bet Zippy Chippy if I had the chance.

AD

[GR1@HTR]

When I was playing daily dB created spot play for longshots, one of the angles I had was an O'fer type situation similar to what you are looking at tomorrow. It was based on the "blind squirrel eventually finding the nut" theory. Good luck...

[alyingthief]

yes you are nuts.

by the way, my experience with these mc repeat losers has been, you need something to indicate a shakeup in the usual routine, a new barn, a layoff, a great veterinarian :-). but hey, every time i make comments like this, the horse wins. well, when my advice is taken and you dont bet on the nag, it wins. before horse racing entered my life, i had many friends. now i employ a bodyguard.

[kingmambo]

when i was reading "SEABISCUIT",i discovered he broke his
maiden in his 17th start!after that i started betting some 0-10
0-12 horses,using them in pick3's,when they fit on speed figures.

you know what,i cashed a couple of "nice" PICK 3'S.

YES YOU ARE NUTS,HOWEVEVER:even a blind squirell will bet
0-17 maiden"s now and then.

[ranchwest]

Just from memory, most of the oh-fers I've seen win had good speed ratings relative to the field and usually had at least some indicators of being "live".

[keilan]

Adave

If I to were playing this race I would be looking to play against the favourite DD. I expect the horse to regress off her only start 10 days ago. Your selection is a 6yo mare still without a win, her race pattern is slightly encouraging. A repeat of the wf race makes her a HUGE contender. The #5 horse is more constant sort and the two FTS look awfully good to me. The # 6 is first in breeding and pedigree in this field at this distance and surface. Breeding shows a decent win percentage first time out. I expect if she breaks cleanly and doesn't get too far back she could be right there.

I think if your selection is sitting just off the pace from the gate she will give you, your money's worth. That's from where she seems to do her best running.

Good Luck and like Alyingthief I to have someone watching my back.

[GR1@HTR]

Speaking of being nuts, I recall last year at Calder hitting a $80 winner on a horse that was something like 1 for 75ish life time. And the horse was only 3 years old...

But records are in the past. It is all about the todays matchup and how the granimal will react to it's next competition....

[anotherdave]

Well I was nuts and bet the mutt. Not even in the money. But I did barely cover with the FTS. Seemed to me if that horse was my top pick, none of the other horses that had already ran can be that good. An, keilan, excellent analysis. the big favourite did regress and one of the FirstTimeStarters won at 5-1. You said they looked good.

AD

[keilan]

Adave

Nice to hear you made a small profit on the race.

Quick story - My wife and I were on our way to Northlands to visit with some friends play the horses and spend the evening taking in Klondike Days. On the way to the track we stopped at her hair salon, I waited in the car reviewing my selections and noticed that I had chosen a horse that was 0'fer 21 in the pick 4 and immediately tossed the horse and added another in it's place. The horse won and paid something like $8.60. The pick 4 paid a little better than $6200.00 for a $1.00 wager. Wish I hadn't noticed that statistic, sometimes the pig is the best bet in the race.

Continued Good Luck

[Bob Harris]

Originally posted by anotherdave
Okay, perhaps the subject line will encourage responses I don't want, but I can take it.

The reason I think I may be nuts is tomorrow I am planning on betting a horse in a maiden race who is 0 for 24. Now at first glance I kicked this horse out mostly because of that fact. But after I ran my figures I realized he was my top choice. And he should be decent odds (ML 6-1).

It scares me, but I think I have to bet him. Hell, it looks like I'd bet Zippy Chippy if I had the chance.

AD

Many, many years ago, this board's very own Dick Schmidt made a comment in a workshop that has just stuck with me over the years. When a gentlemen commented that he was going to toss his top rated horse because he was 0-17, Dick quickly asked him "What is this horse's record when he has the top number in the field?"

A hush fell over the room as everyone pondered the answer to his question...the truth was obvious after a moment: We just don't know! Maybe the animal has *never* even been in the top 3 ratings before today's race (not that uncommon late in the year when the better animals on the grounds have won and moved on).

The key to your post was the comment "he should be decent odds". These no/low win horses are certainly higher risk bets but at the right price they certainly can be profitably played.

Bob

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by Bob Harris

The key to your post was the comment "he should be decent odds". These no/low win horses are certainly higher risk bets but at the right price they certainly can be profitably played.

Bob

Well, she lost, but at 10.50-1, so at least I got odds on her.

AD

[MarylandPaul@HSH]

Originally posted by anotherdave
The reason I think I may be nuts is tomorrow I am planning on betting a horse in a maiden race who is 0 for 24....
AD

My first thought after reading this was that it depends on what the 0-24 looks like. Is this a horse who's rarely close at the end, who's maybe been running over his head? Or is this a horse with a boatload of 2-3 place finishes.

I'd be more inclined to bet the former, given a good reason. Those "Jacques Who" types will find another reason to run 2nd or 3rd until the finish line hits them before they can back up.

Paul