spitthebit
09-30-2005, 05:27 PM
I have been lurking on this board for a couple months, and decided it's time to jump in. I've really enjoyed the insight I've seen here.
The question that prompts me to join the party is to determine what size bets will start impacting the pari-mutuel exacta pools at medium-sized tracks? Here is a little background to provide the context for my question: I decided to jump back into this game at a serious level last year after a 15 year absence. I was intrigued by all these "New Age" developments I was hearing about, such as internet wagering, computer software programs, and particularly rebates. I thought it worthwhile to attempt applying my favorite angles and spot plays of the previous era on a grander scale. Thought maybe I could develop some sort of "black box" angle that would produce a big enough volume of wagering to grind out a small but steady ROI, and use the rebates to make my bottom-line worthwhile. I envisioned myself as a small-time version of these whales with their computer programs that I was reading about.
Of course I realized immediately how difficult this is to do. Didn't have the bankroll or the stomach for it. But a funny thing happened along the way... I started becoming a pretty good handicapper. No rocket science, and I certainly didn't re-invent any wheels. Just read alot of the classic handicapping books and started developing a more intuitive feel for what I was doing. Most important, I kept meticulous records, and through some trial and error began learning the classes, conditions and race shapes in which I was achieving my best results. In particular, I've become a decent exacta player by focusing on the old theory that believes the exacta often consists of the best early running and best late-running horses, and then incorporating the other conventional factors in narrowing the contenders.
I'm currently playing $20 exactas as either ab/abc or abc boxes, for tickets of $80 or $120. I'm getting a strike rate in the mid-30s, with hits mostly in the $25 to $40 range. I catch a handful of $60 to $80 hits each month, and once or twice a month I'll catch a $90-to $110 exacta. Along with these, I have my fair share of chalky $16 to $24 hits. Nothing to retire on with all this, but I'm having fun again. Don't mean to imply that I've got this game figured out, and I've probably just jinxed myself. There's no arrogance here, just an excitement level that my hard work is showing signs of paying off.
So this brings me back to my original question. I'm gradually building my bankroll, and hope to start building the unit sizes of my exacta wagers. My goal is to start playing $50 ab/abc= $200 tickets, and I have this crazy dream of someday graduating to $200 ab/abc's = $800, or maybe $200 abc boxes at $1,200. Based on everything I've digested recently from the more experienced players on this board, I understand that if I have any success at all at offshore books such as Pinny or CRIS, they will ultimately lay off my action into the pools, and maybe piggy-back. So if my action at these levels goes into the pools, perhaps I'm better off playing at the legitimate onshore books such as AmeriTab or Brisbet. Or heck, I can always play at my neighborhood OTB like the old days. Regardless or where I play, I'm trying to determine how my wagers at these levels will impact the prices at the tracks I play most, which are the medium-sized places like Charlestown, Mountaineer, Philly and Canterbury, and a few smaller ones like Penn National, Beulah and Sunland. If the typical Charlestown exacta pool on a weeknight is $22,000, what will start happening to my bread-and-butter $32 hits based on the unit sizes I've just described? Do they start falling to $28 or $22? Or am I fooling myself by thinking I will even make an impact at these levels?
As much as I've learned about handicapping in the past year, I'm still mystified by the mathematics of the pari-mutuel pools. Hoping some of the more knowledgeable players on this board can enlighten me so that I can figure out the ideal betting unit size to aspire to. Thanks.
The question that prompts me to join the party is to determine what size bets will start impacting the pari-mutuel exacta pools at medium-sized tracks? Here is a little background to provide the context for my question: I decided to jump back into this game at a serious level last year after a 15 year absence. I was intrigued by all these "New Age" developments I was hearing about, such as internet wagering, computer software programs, and particularly rebates. I thought it worthwhile to attempt applying my favorite angles and spot plays of the previous era on a grander scale. Thought maybe I could develop some sort of "black box" angle that would produce a big enough volume of wagering to grind out a small but steady ROI, and use the rebates to make my bottom-line worthwhile. I envisioned myself as a small-time version of these whales with their computer programs that I was reading about.
Of course I realized immediately how difficult this is to do. Didn't have the bankroll or the stomach for it. But a funny thing happened along the way... I started becoming a pretty good handicapper. No rocket science, and I certainly didn't re-invent any wheels. Just read alot of the classic handicapping books and started developing a more intuitive feel for what I was doing. Most important, I kept meticulous records, and through some trial and error began learning the classes, conditions and race shapes in which I was achieving my best results. In particular, I've become a decent exacta player by focusing on the old theory that believes the exacta often consists of the best early running and best late-running horses, and then incorporating the other conventional factors in narrowing the contenders.
I'm currently playing $20 exactas as either ab/abc or abc boxes, for tickets of $80 or $120. I'm getting a strike rate in the mid-30s, with hits mostly in the $25 to $40 range. I catch a handful of $60 to $80 hits each month, and once or twice a month I'll catch a $90-to $110 exacta. Along with these, I have my fair share of chalky $16 to $24 hits. Nothing to retire on with all this, but I'm having fun again. Don't mean to imply that I've got this game figured out, and I've probably just jinxed myself. There's no arrogance here, just an excitement level that my hard work is showing signs of paying off.
So this brings me back to my original question. I'm gradually building my bankroll, and hope to start building the unit sizes of my exacta wagers. My goal is to start playing $50 ab/abc= $200 tickets, and I have this crazy dream of someday graduating to $200 ab/abc's = $800, or maybe $200 abc boxes at $1,200. Based on everything I've digested recently from the more experienced players on this board, I understand that if I have any success at all at offshore books such as Pinny or CRIS, they will ultimately lay off my action into the pools, and maybe piggy-back. So if my action at these levels goes into the pools, perhaps I'm better off playing at the legitimate onshore books such as AmeriTab or Brisbet. Or heck, I can always play at my neighborhood OTB like the old days. Regardless or where I play, I'm trying to determine how my wagers at these levels will impact the prices at the tracks I play most, which are the medium-sized places like Charlestown, Mountaineer, Philly and Canterbury, and a few smaller ones like Penn National, Beulah and Sunland. If the typical Charlestown exacta pool on a weeknight is $22,000, what will start happening to my bread-and-butter $32 hits based on the unit sizes I've just described? Do they start falling to $28 or $22? Or am I fooling myself by thinking I will even make an impact at these levels?
As much as I've learned about handicapping in the past year, I'm still mystified by the mathematics of the pari-mutuel pools. Hoping some of the more knowledgeable players on this board can enlighten me so that I can figure out the ideal betting unit size to aspire to. Thanks.