A New DRF Book I will Buy

[andicap]

Steve Klein has long been one of the writer/handicappers at the DRF that I respect and enjoy. Now he has a book coming out soon from DRF Press --nothing on the DRF website but the hard copy had an ad "Coming This Fall," which of course means anytime between now and Dec. 20.

It's about early pace and 162 pages...that's all I know. Stil, I'll be one in line to check it out.

[Tom]

Andy, he is a good writer. I have a tape of a presentation he gave at an earlier Handicapper's Expo....well worth the money.

I'll buy this one.

[Overlay]

Which fairly recent Derby was it (they all seem to run together more and more as the years go by) where Steve Klein got a lot of post-race buzz for having written an especially accurate forecast in the Form of how the race would unfold, including the winner at long odds? War Emblem? Charismatic?

[blind squirrel]

charismatic.....he was the only DRF handicapper to have him.

[headhawg]

Overlay,

Klein picked Charismatic to win. I remember it well as I was tempted to put him on top based on Klein's comments, but chickened out because of that damn claiming race Lukas had him run in.

HH

[ezpace]

I had the pleasure to meet him moons ago. A PRO and a solid guy.fwiw .

THanks for the thread.

[cj]

Here is a link:

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/1932910980/qid=1129759246/sr=8-1/ref=pd_bbs_1/104-2668860-8974325?v=glance&s=books&n=507846

[trying2win]

CJ,

Any link to Amazon.com for some reason doesn't work here in Canada. When I click on the one you listed, an error message comes up on my computer screen that reads..."NOT FOUND". I guess here in Canada we have to look up info on Amazon.ca.

No one has mentioned the name of Steve Klein's new book. However, while I was at our local racetrack recently, I read some of the ads in the DRF. One of the ads was for a Steve Klein book. If I remember correctly, the title was something like 'THE POWER OF EARLY SPEED', or something close to that. Is that the book everyone's referring to in this thread? If so, I'll just check out some more info at the Amazon.ca site.

Thanks,

T2W

[cj]

Yes, that is the title.

[trying2win]

CJ,

Thanks for the confirmation.


T2W

[iggy]

CJ,

Any link to Amazon.com for some reason doesn't work here in Canada. When I click on the one you listed, an error message comes up on my computer screen that reads..."NOT FOUND". I guess here in Canada we have to look up info on Amazon.ca.


T2W

When I got up this morning I was in Canada and the link worked for me. To suggest amazon.com is not available here is nonsense.

[trying2win]

Iggy,

For some areas in Canada, obviously the Amazon.com link works. In my area it doesn't. Oh well, whatever.

T2W

[OTM Al]

It looks good. Exerpt in Saturday's DRF.

[cj]

Here is the excerpt:

http://www.drf.com/misc/poes_excerpt.pdf

[cj]

In the 1,671,627-horse sample,
the first-call leaders won 28.4 percent of the time, and
returned a $3.12 ROI.

Now, I hope the book shows us how to figure this out in advance. (Or bet after the bell! :lol: )

[BillW]

Now, I hope the book shows us how to figure this out in advance. (Or bet after the bell! :lol: )

I'd be interested to know how he calculates ROI :eek:

[cj]

I think he is basing it on a $2.00 bet.

[aaron]

The 1st call leaders is a misleading statistic in my opinion.The horses that make the statistic show a positive roi are longshots that in many cases don't give an indication of early speed.

[First_Place]

"In the 1,671,627-horse sample, the first-call leaders won 28.4 percent of the time, and returned a $3.12 ROI."

Hmmm...sounds familiar. I've got a book here--an excellent book I must add--written by William L. Quirin, Ph.D called Winning At The Races [1979] that examines this subject in-depth. In fact, it's the topic of his very first chapter in this most excellent tome and entitled The Significance of Early Speed. In the very next chapter, entitled Identifying The Pacesetters, he introduces to the world his now famous (and overused) Quirin Speed Points.

I surely hope that Steverino is not going over old territory. It would be a big disappointment.

FP

[Overlay]

In the very next chapter, entitled Identifying The Pacesetters, he introduces to the world his now famous (and overused) Quirin Speed Points.

I'd agree that profits dried up long ago for anyone blindly betting all speed-point leaders based solely on that fact. But to me, the more relevant question is: are speed points still effective in identifying who the early pace-setters in a race are likely to be? I believe that for that purpose they are as valid now as they have ever been.

[speculus]

If you and I see 9 virgin schoolgirls helping a pregnant lady cross the street, the statistician sees it thus:

A set of 10 females of the human species crosses the street.

Each of them is 10% pregnant.

And of course, the one with the big belly is 90% virgin.:lol:

[Turntime]

Aaron is spot on. Unpredictable early speed is what makes the ROI so fat. Predictable early speed is a big loser. Look back at the PP's from Kee on Thursday 10-20 (a day dominated by ES types). In the 4th race, how many people predicted the #4 It's No Joke would get a clear early lead? Or the #7 Emmy's Storm in the 5th race? Another ES winner that day was #5 French Park (race 9), a first timer. It's these types of horses that fuel the positive ROI and it's a misleading stat at best. Some of the biggest underlays are horses that the public can easily spot as 'lone speed'.

[Tom]

You can't talk to anyone at HTR very long without "F1" coming up. Suprise early speed is not always a suprise if you have the right tools. It is the best predictaor of longshots I have ever seen.

[Tom]

Early speed v late speed v favorites


All tracks, dirt races, all distances, Jun-Sept

Number races = 36,083



F1 20% wins .87 roi 496 longshots
F3 17% wins .80 roi 484 longshots
Fav 37% wins .86 r oi 0 longshots

Longshot-$20.00 or higher

[Houndog]

After reading the excerpts from the book, I think it will be a worthwhile read. I do not think Klein would do a rehash of Quirin's concepts. In the table of contents he talks about Klein speed-points, how speed plays at different tracks, speed-jockeys, etc.

As Tom has pointed out the people at HTR have been researching this for some time with their F1 readings. Tom Brohamer may not have emphasized F1 as much in MPH, but I am sure he considered it in his own handicapping. I have been told by people more knowlegable them me that the race starts when the gate opens not at the second call. The challenge is if Klein can show us to a greater degree which horses will get the early lead.

[RXB]

It will be interesting to see what happens if/when Polytrack sweeps through North America.

I know that in England, Lingfield was a frontrunner's paradise (at least by their standards) until the introduction of Polytrack. Not so anymore, especially in the coldest months. Wolverhampton is the other Polytrack surface, and it also favours off-the-pace animals.

I will be paying close attention to Turfway's winter meet.

[Wizard of Odds]

Now, I hope the book shows us how to figure this out in advance. (Or bet after the bell! :lol: )

cj is exactly right.

Here is the title of my new book "THE POWER OF TOTAL SPEED". This book will show you how the horse that was ahead at the finish line was the Winner almost 100% of the time* with an astonishing 424% Rate of Return.

*Disqualifications and 'no contests' are the extremely rare exceptions.

Get this book now, you cannot consistantly win without it.:D

All the best,
Wizard

[Secretariat]

Aaron is spot on. Unpredictable early speed is what makes the ROI so fat. Predictable early speed is a big loser. Look back at the PP's from Kee on Thursday 10-20 (a day dominated by ES types). In the 4th race, how many people predicted the #4 It's No Joke would get a clear early lead? Or the #7 Emmy's Storm in the 5th race? Another ES winner that day was #5 French Park (race 9), a first timer. It's these types of horses that fuel the positive ROI and it's a misleading stat at best. Some of the biggest underlays are horses that the public can easily spot as 'lone speed'.

Your post is quite interesting. Can you define "predictable early speed" versus "unpredictable early speed"? I agree with your assessment anecdotally, but to quantify it and explore what factors lead to "unpredictable early speed" may lead to something not yet in print.

What criteria defines "predictable early speed"?

1. Top Qurin Speed Points?
2. Top Bris Early Pace figure?

I guess one would have to look at horses that obtained the lead in races that were NOT one of the above, and look at their performance versus those who were one of the two above and look at their performance.

Anyone have that breakdown?

[Overlay]

Quirin provided a breakdown of horses from a 700-race sample (400 sprints and 300 routes) that actually did show early speed (by running third or better at the first call), grouped according to their pre-race speed point totals. Of the 2,100 horses in question:

114 had zero speed points, of which 24 won, with an overall ROI of $2.47 on a $2.00 wager (23.5%), and an impact value of 1.79

129 had one speed point, with 29 winners, $3.16 (58%), and 1.92
161 had two speed points, with 38 winners, $3.16 (58%), and 2.01
256 had three speed points, with 52 winners, $2.35 (17.5%), and 1.73
278 had four speed points, with 56 winners, $2.13 (6.5%), and 1.72
416 had five speed points, with 77 winners, $2.57 (28.5%), and 1.58
300 had six speed points, with 54 winners, $2.06 (3%), and 1.53
174 had seven speed points, with 35 winners, $1.98 (-1%), and 1.71
272 had eight speed points, with 57 winners, $2.21 (10.5%), and 1.79

His comment on these statistics was: "In these 700 races, the three early leaders combined to win 422 times, for a win percentage of 20.1%. and an impact value of 1.67. They returned their backers an average payoff of $2.39, nearly a 20% profit. But, as the tabulation indicates, the bulk of this profit can be attributed to horses that showed surprise early speed -- horses in the 0, 1, and 2 speed-point categories."

The bottom line for me is that speed points are still a useful predictive tool as long as I give them proper weight when considered with other fundamental handicapping factors, and view them from a probability standpoint, rather than as an absolute measure or guarantee of either early-speed performance or a winning effort.

[midnight]

DRF has always listed their ROI's on a 2.00 base (a $2 bet), rather than a base of 1.00.

The early speed/Fr1 had its day of profitability, but it's been beaten to death. I have stats for the past ten years, and at one point in time it showed almost a 1.10 ROI (10% profit). It's currently hovering around 0.88 to 0.91, depending on the time of year.

CJ: some people CAN bet after the bell, in my opinion, and while many tracks have closed off this flaw, I still see it happening (or think I see it happening) at certain tracks.

[Secretariat]

Overlay,

thanks for post on Quirin. So the key is can one find ways of determing "surprise" early speed. Obviously, one of these categories is horses with low speed point totals from Quirin's data which leads to the largest ROI's in those who get to the top 3 at the first call, but obviously most horses with low speed point totals don't get to 1,2,3 at the first call.

So what conditions allow a horse with low speed point totals to suddenly develop "surprise" early speed.

Some possiblities for low speed point total horses -

1. Drop in Class with moderate early speed
2. New conditions
3. Previous wins at high odds
4. Trainer, Rider or Equipment shift.

Seems like the "surprise" early speed angle with the horse with low quirin speed points may be worth some development.

[Tom]

Track switch, class drop.
Plow horses from NYRA often shoot out and speed pop the field at Finger Lakes.

A think I use is to look for the horse's best two first call postions at tody's distance or shoter and add them together (Fred Davis).
Low is best, and it works well with class drops, jock changes, to better gate boys, equipment changes, first lasix, blinkers, etc. It is something the crowd is not using, so it has some value.

[Overlay]

Seems like the "surprise" early speed angle with the horse with low quirin speed points may be worth some development.

Quirin provided a past-performance example involving an eight-year-old gelding named Wopeedah, which showed surprise early speed and won, after at least nine losing races where he had never been in the hunt in the early going. The only comment Quirin offered as far as a possible tipoff that Wopeedah would have a sudden change in running style was a jockey switch from Jorge Velasquez to Wally Blum, whom Quirin called a "noted speed rider". However, I'm not sure that it would be that easy to characterize jockeys for purposes of applying this angle (if you can call it that). It would seem to me that any competent jockey would be able to gear his riding style to the horse in question or to the race as it unfolds, and wouldn't be locked in to always requiring a particular kind of trip in order to be competitive. (And, by the way, Wopeedah paid only $10.40 for the race that he finally won.)

[Overlay]

Incidentally, the reference in my previous post to Walter Blum as "Wally" was Quirin's wording, which I typed without giving thought to it. I don't think I ever heard him referred to as "Wally" in his heyday, nor can I find any mention of him as such on the web.

[andicap]

I ordered this book from Amazon a month ago -- is it out yet?

Marc from DRF? Any info on its release?

Randy Giles has been taking on Steve Klein in his blog at www.paceappraiser.com lately so I'm curious to read this book. I respect both of them so that should be interesting. Nothing like a clash of ideas on pace from two respected handicappers to get the blood going. Klein's one of the few writers I look forward to reading.

[cj]

The book is not out. I posted about the same article Randy is talking about a while back, it was pretty weak.

[Tom]

I heard it was due out in December.

[Secretariat]

Quirin provided a past-performance example involving an eight-year-old gelding named Wopeedah, which showed surprise early speed and won, after at least nine losing races where he had never been in the hunt in the early going. The only comment Quirin offered as far as a possible tipoff that Wopeedah would have a sudden change in running style was a jockey switch from Jorge Velasquez to Wally Blum, whom Quirin called a "noted speed rider". However, I'm not sure that it would be that easy to characterize jockeys for purposes of applying this angle (if you can call it that). It would seem to me that any competent jockey would be able to gear his riding style to the horse in question or to the race as it unfolds, and wouldn't be locked in to always requiring a particular kind of trip in order to be competitive. (And, by the way, Wopeedah paid only $10.40 for the race that he finally won.)

I decided to run the "surprise early speed angle" through the Angle Maker program.

I limited it to horses with 0-1-2 Early Speed Points at BEL in 2001

All 0-1-2 ESP horses won 9.74% of races and an ROI of 0.73.

But since I was looking for "surprise early speed", I limited it to those 0-1-2 ESP horses who were "E" Run Style only.

WOW. That pushed the win% up to 13.22% and a 1.31 ROI or 31% profit.

Since "surprise early speed" shoudl provide a price I added a 4/1 Morning Line and up. This actually pushed the Win% down to 10.53%, but the ROI up to 1.49.

As a longshot method, it warrants investigation.

There's another subset worth looking at, but I'll keep that one to myself.

So the rules are:

1. 0-1-2 Early Speed Points.
2. An "E" Run Designation
3. 4/1 ML up.

Go to it database boys. I imagine it might crack under further analysis, but the logic is there. A surprise early speed horse who is actually an early horse, but most likely has been running over his head pushing his ESP down, and you're getting a price today.

Good luck, and if it hits, thank the Angle Maker program. If it doesn't curse the Angle Maker program.

[Tom]

Aqu/Bel 2003 - 2005

RS = F or E (Htr)
QSP = <4
ML>3.9
All burger

NH 772
NW 69 8.9%

Bet $1544.00
Ret $1550.30 1.004 roi avg price = $22.47

Still looking good....ore research is at the top of my list.
Thanks, Sec.

[ryesteve]

This success must be track-specific, because the results I'm seeing across a couple dozen tracks between June and October of this year are pretty disastrous:




Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 4308.50 4409.30 4578.80
Bet -6768.00 -6768.00 -6768.00
Gain -2459.50 -2358.70 -2189.20
Wins 185 442 790
Plays 3384 3384 3384
PCT .0547 .1306 .2335
ROI 0.6366 0.6515 0.6765
Avg Mut 23.29 9.98 5.80

[xfile]

I heard it was due out in December.

Anyone have any info when this book is due? I'm a book junkie...lol...I'm currently reading Dan Illman's maiden book. Some decent insights in there. He's one of the few public handicappers that I enjoy reading/listening to. Klein is another one. Any info on TPOES is appreciated.

[First_Place]

"Anyone have any info when this book is due?"

From what I understand sometime (early?) this month. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong. Having said that, I stopped by my local Barnes & Noble bookstore yesterday evening to check their less-than-extensive horse race handicapping book section to see if Steve's book was there. It was not.

I'm anxious to thumb through it (and buy it if it's any good). I'll check at Borders Books & Music this weekend (which has a slightly more extensive handicapping book section) and usually stocks DRF's latest offerings as soon as they're available. I'll report back to the group if I find it. Then it's up to you to find it in your area or order it online.

FP

[First_Place]

Checked there yesterday. Nope, nyet, nada...not there yet.

FP

[Tom]

It appears to have disappeared from the DRF website bookstore - no mention of it anywhere. I suspect it might not be coming out this month - or else why wouldn't they be touting it in their Christmas packages?

[railjunkie]

Just received an e mail from DRF and this book is now available. Got caught up in the excitement of a few posters anticipation for this book and ordered it. Hope it's a good read.
Happy Holidays,
Tim

[cj]

You can find it here (http://store.drf.com/acb/showdetl.cfm?&DID=7&Product_ID=15746&CATID=18&objectgroup_ID=460&af_id=37).

[Tom]

Shows you what I know! :blush:

[sjk]

I had a copy of the book show up on my doorstep yesterday. Included within were some materials relating to one of the account wagering services which I have used for years so I suppose that they sent it out to some of their regular customers.

Most of the book is devoted to tables of information. Not that much actual reading material.

Klein defines a measure which he uses to help predict which horse in the race will make the early lead. The measure uses only positional information and not the raw or adjusted fractions that the horse ran in the past. I would expect one could make a better measure by looking at how fast the horse had actually run in the past.

He had a large database at his disposal so what I would expect is for him to define a process of horse/bet selection in the races in his database using the speed points measure as a tool and then to test this process against the races in his database. That would seem like the proper way to validate his measure.

I have not finished reading the book but have flipped throughit looking for such a test and have not found it as yet.

Nice to get a free book anyway; hope to find something useful as I read the rest.

[peakpros]

Just got it from amazon...along with a copy of "horseplayers"

Nice reading material while sitting by the yule log....(channel 11 that is!)