Belmont Stakes & SARAVA

[Derek2U]

any thoughts on #12 SARAVA. I think he's definitely in fine shape,
but is he Fast enough? 2 comeback races in the Slop, both 2nds,
& a last out Win by 4, pulling away. I say this horse will lay maybe 5th by the 6f mark then move up, but can he sustain the
move? His last 3 workouts all 4fs ... is the trainer trying to drill
some zip into him? This horses bothers me. Thoughts plz.

[andicap]

He gets very high numbers on my formulas.

[B]The big question is how weird the Preakness numbers were. Does anyone else get freaky pace figures for that race? Freaky high that is? The Preakness figs seem so distorted. Anyone not using BRIS have a clue on this. [B/]

But if I ignore the Preakness line, my key rating looks like this:
I divide my ratings into very recent lines and fairly recent lines.
(fast track only)
-Most recent:

War Emblem 226 (10f )
Sarava 219 (8.5f)
Proud Citizen 216 (10f)
Megdalia 215 (10f)
Perfect Drift 214 (10f)
Sunday Break 213 (9f)

Bit further back:

Magic Weisner 224 (the figure that qualified him for me in the Preakness) 9f
Sunday Break 221 9F
Megdalia 219 (9f)

Top 5 horses are contenders (within 1 pt is considered a tie)
WE
Magic
Sunday
Sarava
Megd 219
on the cusp -- Proud Citizen and Perfect Drift since they are tightly bunched, consider at longer odds/exotics.

I qualify this rating with another formula the horse has to be competitive under. Magic doesn't qualify here unless you use the very iffy Preakness number. He is also a bounce candidate. Megdalia has 1 excellent number but several medicore ones.

Bottom Line: after WE this is a very tightly bunched field of horses. Who can get the distance of course is the key question.

Form is critical here and Sarava has a nice line although 21 days might be a bit soon (or not) from the big last race. And the horse is cheap compared to these. Proud Citizen is due for an off race (but then again so is WE). For some reason Proud reminds me of Sham chasing Secretariat.

Perfect Drift has a nice rest (isn't there some angle about horses who dont race between the Derby and the Belmont?) A good line, constantly in an upward direction. Ran well in the Derby, but got beat by a monster. I like this horse.

Sunday Break is also ready to pop a big one, but will be 2nd favorite.

So what am I doing? Beats me but I'll use Perfect Drift heavily if the odds are right. He should be 4th choice.
With such a strong legitimate favorite, I won't cover too heavy since its very possible the payouts will be low. I'll bet that Proud Citizen is tired and toss him and if Magic is a long price again, I'll use him a bit in exotics.

[Tom]

Originally posted by Derek2U
any thoughts on #12 SARAVA. I think he's definitely in fine shape,
but is he Fast enough? 2 comeback races in the Slop, both 2nds,
& a last out Win by 4, pulling away. I say this horse will lay maybe 5th by the 6f mark then move up, but can he sustain the
move? His last 3 workouts all 4fs ... is the trainer trying to drill
some zip into him? This horses bothers me. Thoughts plz.

Well, it is 10 minutes BEFORE the race (hehehe) so I think I'll make my pick......Sarava looks like a winner to me! <G>

Derek, hope you bet him.

Andi, your number two ranked horse? Tell me you used him?
(My exacta ran 2-3, my key horse was Medaglio-whatshisname, for the third time, but only get place money. Bet him one unit win three units place. Glad there was a nice exacta so I could really limit my winnings <G>. No problem, I like hot dogs for dinner.

[Derek2U]

yeah i put $12/WIN on Sarava & did a $1/Wheel on TOP hehe ...
thank you Buddha ,,,

[boxcar]

Nice call, D2U, on a 70-1 shot. They don't grow on trees. (The best my selection did was take the 3rd slot.) Congratulations.

Boxcar

[Derek2U]

TY BoxCar and the many other accolades ... of course, my pals
have already planned my evening & I'm paying .... I hope they
restrict us to maybe 5 bars ... any rate, Kudos to AndicaP who not
only responded to my Sarava post, but whose NUMBERS put
Sarava in the hunt only behind WE i think. It's amazing that
any Numerical System could pick the Belmont champ .... geez I
love this game (and this room is cool2) ...

[andicap]

I bet the race very lightly and had a little bit on the winner. I've had such bad luck (read "lack of skill") picking Belmont winners in the past I was a bit gun shy. Still that and the $115 exacta I hit made for a nice day.

[JustRalph]

I think the Belmont Card was pretty awesome all together. Very Competitive races.

[PaceAdvantage]

Derek2U,

NICE HIT!! And Andicap, nice numbers!!



==PA