exacta picks 09/28

[formula_2002]

A few rules
1. minimum field size is 8 horses
2. play no race in which there is a running entry
3.all plays are straight and reversed exactas
4. one of the picks must be the post time favorite.
5. straight exacta is the favorite pick over any other pick that is in the odds range of >=4 and <25.
5. the reverse is any other pick >=4 and <=25 over the favorite pick.

You will pass many more races than you play

The system is based upon 2100 plays, 880 races.
Exacta win % is 25%
Straight exacta profit is 24%
Reverse exacta profit is 25%
Win pool loss is 5%.






date post t TRACK race pgno horse
928 1:15 BEU 1 1 RUSSELL'S
928 1:15 BEU 1 2 E MAN
928 1:15 BEU 1 4 DARCYS FOL
928 1:15 BEU 1 5 MORNING ST
928 1:15 BEU 1 6 JOES CHARM
928 1:15 BEU 1 7 BRAGGADOOJ
928 1:15 BEU 1 8 PROUDLY WE
928 1:15 BEU 1 9 FRENCH SHA
928 1:15 BEU 1 10 STORMIN JO

928 2:55 BEU 6 3 MILITARY M
928 2:55 BEU 6 1 SISTER VEL
928 2:55 BEU 6 4 MARIA'S PO

928 3:16 BEU 7 1 DIAMOND LA
928 3:16 BEU 7 2 STACKED
928 3:16 BEU 7 4 VENTUROUS
928 3:16 BEU 7 6 SOPHIE'S M
928 3:16 BEU 7 9 QUIET DINN

928 3:37 BEU 8 1 PARAMETERS
928 3:37 BEU 8 2 NANO'S GRO
928 3:37 BEU 8 3 Z DINNER
928 3:37 BEU 8 4 RED SKY WA
928 3:37 BEU 8 6 ABDICATION
928 3:37 BEU 8 7 TEJANO HEA

928 4:08 BEL 7 5 MISTER HEN
928 4:08 BEL 7 6 JOSHUA'S J

928 4:19 BEU 10 1 STEAMBOAT
928 4:19 BEU 10 5 SUNNY CIRC
928 4:19 BEU 10 6 TIPYOURBUD
928 4:19 BEU 10 7 BLEACHED
928 4:19 BEU 10 9 PAPAGO

928 4:21 DEL 9 2 LEGENDARY
928 4:21 DEL 9 3 GOTTHARD
928 4:21 DEL 9 9 CASH B. FA

928 4:30 HAW 6 3 CHEROKEE C
928 4:30 HAW 6 4 LOVELY LOV
928 4:30 HAW 6 5 KNOCKER
928 4:30 HAW 6 7 DUCHESS OF
928 4:30 HAW 6 8 PRETTI FRO

928 4:40 BEU 11 2 MOONMASTER
928 4:40 BEU 11 4 U. S. BLUE
928 4:40 BEU 11 5 JONEQUEST
928 4:40 BEU 11 7 FIVEOCLOCK
928 4:40 BEU 11 10 TRADEWEST
928 4:40 BEU 11 11 TCHEFUNCTE

928 5:24 GLD 2 1 HILDA BROW
928 5:24 GLD 2 3 CIRCUS DU
928 5:24 GLD 2 6 DOUBLE HAT

928 5:48 GLD 3 1 AMBITIOUS
928 5:48 GLD 3 2 SEPTEMBERS
928 5:48 GLD 3 3 HEAVENLY V
928 5:48 GLD 3 4 ON A DREAM
928 5:48 GLD 3 7 LOOT TOOTE

928 8:12 GLD 9 4 HADLEY HIL
928 8:12 GLD 9 5 BALLROOM B
928 8:12 GLD 9 6 BOMER'S GO
928 8:12 GLD 9 8 BELANSO
928 8:12 GLD 9 9 ALBERTA CL

928 9:09 TPX 6 1 ROCK COUNT
928 9:09 TPX 6 5 UTAH SKY
928 9:09 TPX 6 6 BOBANDROB
928 9:09 TPX 6 7 BOLD MOVE
928 9:09 TPX 6 8 GOOD HUMOR

928 9:15 CTX 6 1 HIGH BO
928 9:15 CTX 6 4 TAMONO
928 9:15 CTX 6 7 GLORIOUS R
928 9:15 CTX 6 8 HOH HOH HO
928 9:15 CTX 6 9 TEA TIME T

928 9:15 WOX 6 1 MAN ON A S
928 9:15 WOX 6 6 BILL DANDY
928 9:15 WOX 6 8 WILD TO GO

928 10:51 CTX 10 1 WACO HALO
928 10:51 CTX 10 3 LEGAL LOUI
928 10:51 CTX 10 5 MORNING SA
928 10:51 CTX 10 8 ME TRICKY
928 10:51 CTX 10 9 K'S BOY MA

928 10:55 TPX 10 1 SAVAGE WOL
928 10:55 TPX 10 3 RIO RUCKUS
928 10:55 TPX 10 7 RUSTY TRAW
928 10:55 TPX 10 8 MUCHO SALT

[formula_2002]

Missed that $35 exacta at BEU 11th...
Figured the 10 as the favorite.
It was the fav in the pick 3 pool and the fav in the exacta pool with 3 min to post. Usually a good sign.
Turned out that the winner was the 4 horse (the favorite).

Hey if it was that easy, anyone could do it.

I wish my Bris account was doing as well as my data base!!

[formula_2002]

5 of the 15 races qualified.
15 plays x $2 strainght X $2 reverse = $60 in

1 straight exacta won for $35.20 out

[formula_2002]

5 of the 15 races qualified.
15 plays x $2 strainght X $2 reverse = $60 in

1 straight exacta won for $35.20 out

number of expected straight exacta wins=.54
number of expected reverse exacta wins= .41

When number of actual wins/ number of expected wins =1,
the dollar loss will approximate the exacta pool take-out.

When the ratio is >(1 + track exacta pool take), the excess is expected profit.