Post Time Solutions Pace and Advanced Speed Figures

[mhrussell]

Hi all...

Dan Serra’s new program, TPH, has me rethinking my approach to the point where I am investigating the possibility of developing a companion version of my Excel based TMM program (which uses BRIS data) that would use the PTS files and corresponding pace and speed figures. I wanted to ask if any of you out there have used the PTS pace/speed figures and what are your impressions?

Also, in a more technical bent, I need to know the relationship between beaten lengths and the respective PTS speed and pace figure point scales as a function of race distance. (like 2 BRIS pace points = 1 length for all distances; 1 BRIS Speed pt = 10/d lengths, where d is race distance in furlongs). And I also would like to know if there is a mathematical equation fit (or lookup table) that relates the PTS Adv. Speed Fig to the Beyer number or other Speed Figures? I have ‘conversions’ between the other main “flavors” of speed figures from literature/web sites I’ve found over the years, but I never found a similar relation for the PTS Adv. Speed figure.

Any help or comments are appeciated.

Thanks,
Matt

[NoDayJob]

http://www.chef-de-race.com/pfs/comparative_speed_figs.htm

[mhrussell]

Thanks NoDayJob, but I already have this information. And there is no conversion data provided for the PTS (old ITS) Speed Figures.

[Niko]

Personally I've had better luck with Bris and CJ's numbers. PTS (ITS) points me to some longshots that others don't but puts me on a lot more losers also, which doesn't nearly compensate for the few winners.
Some people use them succesfully but it's my own conclusion that it's because they use LP and race shapes to come up with the winners. In my studies LP raw par times were a lot more consistent track to track but they could vary quite a bit in the early part of the races.
So if you're going to use PTS I'd highly suggest using it in conjunction with TMM and read the back posts on the ITS version of the program.

[xfile]

Personally I use figures as a guide instead of number crunching. Number crunching tends to land me on short price horses. Using figs just as a guide lands me on some fantastic overlays.

[First_Place]

mhrussell wrote:

"I have ‘conversions’ between the other main “flavors” of speed figures from literature/web sites I’ve found over the years..."

You wouldn't happen to have a conversion chart that translates Beyer speed figures to Equibase speed numbers would ya? I'd like to use it to convert Beyer speed figure pars to Equibase speed numbers. If not, anyone out there??

Thanks.

FP

[Tom]

Do a search here - someone posted a formula for Beyer to Bris or vice versa a while ago.

I'll look to see if I saved it somewhere.

[Dave Schwartz]

First Place,

I have a Beyer Conversion chart (in Excel) I made a long time ago. If you would like a copy just send me an email. (Not a PM, please.)


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Longshot]

Bris Speed Fig = 39.6 + (0.612*Beyer Speed Fig)

[garyoz]

If Beyer numbers are hand-adjusted after the race, how can you have a constant relationship to Bris speed figures which are computer-generated?
Or am I missing something?

[Dave Schwartz]

Gary,

I know that the conversion I referrred to would convert the current Beyer to a one-point equals one-length system.

I can only assume that Longshot is saying it converts a Beyer number to a number on the BRIS scale.


Dave

[Tom]

Yes. It is a formula that describes the general realtionship beween Beyer and BRIS. There will be variation, but overall, it gives you a close enough number.

If you have a race par of 85 in BRIS, you could get a ball park par in Beyer using this. Good stuff.

Dave - I still use the chart you gave me a while ago - I convert CJ figs with it so I can have my familiar Quirin numbers. :ThmbUp: