For beginners

[twindouble]

I drafted this a while back, don't know if I posted it or not, could have. I know it's not ready for print, :D just a mixture of thoughts with numbers. I don't think there's much in it thats new for experienced players or if they will agree 100% or not. I would apperciate any input, might be a thread that you all can add to giving new handicappers something to think about or learn.


# 1

Handicapper is what we like to call ourselves, sounds like your a financial guru with a wealth of knowledge, your separated from the average person because you believe you've figured out how to make money in something very few can. The fact of the matter is, your a gambler first a handicapper second to be successful you have to be willing to gamble to play the horses..



# 2

Is there such a thing as sound handicapping principles void of gambling in this game? No, not in my experience. There are no mathematical probabilities that can be worked out to guarantee success. Primarily because we are dealing with living animals including all those involved that make up the game. Just that fact alone says your going to gamble. So, anyone who thinks the are above the negative implications of being a GAMBLER, doesn't truly understand the game. Take pride in the fact your a gambler, not just in horse racing but in any risky thing you do. You just have to evaluate the risks and limit the risk by getting to know the tracks you play and how to handicap.


# 3.
OK, so now we know your a gambler, the question always is, what makes a good gambler in this game? Are they lucky? Well, sometimes yes. Do they have more information then what's available to you? Yes, in some cases but in most cases no. What to do with it all that info that's out there? We live in an age of information, the problem is weeding out what is useful and what isn't. Someone could hook you into thinking they have formulated something that works and you no longer have to formulate on your own opinion. We can't extract the humanity and animals from this game, owners, trainers, jocks, when you do your doomed to fail in my opinion. Current information and old information creates another dilemma for novice handicappers. To me old information is only good when you want to check people out, for example if your going to hire them, check out the baby sitter or trust them with your money. Unless you have a book in mind. Current information as well as history on trainers, jocks and owners is helpful, but it's best to lean more on the current than historical. Just by sticking to current information with those exceptions, as a gambler you've already weeded out a lot of unnecessary info and are poised with a good wagering strategy to win.



# 4

Experienced gamblers know and understand the value of the bankroll, with a limited bankroll, your limited. Who would go to war with a handful of bullets or not enough food or water to sustain themselves for any length of time? No one in this game wins all the time. It's my contention that good handicappers fail because they lack the bankroll. Point in fact, people with huge bankrolls or syndicates fair better today with the rebates they receive and the ability to capitalize on opportunities that arise even though they may lose at comparable rates as many good handicappers with a limited bankroll. They have the edge.

# 5

I ask all beginners how serious they are about playing the horses and making money, the reason I ask is because it takes a lot time and work to play the game seriously. I'm not talking about walking around with a serious look on your face, just allowing for the necessary time and effort to do a reasonable job like you would do anything else. How much time you put in will determine what kind of gambler or handicapper you'll be, it's like gulf, you'll someday wear the green jacket or you be an also ran. What's great about horse racing is, you can be a modest player, do it part time and enjoy it immensely but it's important to understand what kind of player you are or want to be. That's a must.

# 6 strengths

Most current information is available to every handicapper in the DRF past performances, ( learn how to read it,) the question is how to evaluate it and make a wager like a gambler would that has the bankroll. Sound wagering strategies are determined by your ability to handicap, weaknesses and strengths. There's no big mystery when it comes to handicapping and picking horses. It's an accumulation of information, diligent observation and understanding the conditions that prevail. Once you learn how to read the DRF and understand the conditions, your the way to put the bankroll to work.

#7 What isn't in the the DRF can only come form what you see by watching
the races, trip handicapping is an inportant handicapping tool.

#8 All handicappers know the importance of pace and speed when it comes to handicapping, I perfer #7 to make that determination along with the racing form, others have come forth and have defined pace and variants further with the help of computers, all I can say is check it out as a potential tool. Me, I'm set in my ways but will stay tuned with an open mind.

#9 I've said and I still think it's inportant to check the ego at the door when it comes to playing the horses, I or anyone else don't have a monopoly on how to handicap or wager on this game but if there's anything that will put you under it's a big ego and a closed mind. Even if you learn to handicap better than most. Plus anyone who isn't willing to weigh concenus on the races will miss opertunities to score, it's that very concenus that make up the odds.


#10 Good luck! It does play a part in this game, sometimes more so than we like to admit.

[sparkywowo]

Gambling may mean simply playing a game of chance, but this definition is not accurate enough for my purposes and there is a big distinction in my mind between gambling and investing. And, although you can gamble on the horseraces, you can also invest in them. What is the difference between gambling and investing?

Gambling is *hoping* to win in the short run when you *expect* to lose in the long run. You may cash a bet on a 1-1 horse that has a 40% chance of winning, but if you keep it up you will be wiped out pretty quickly.

Investing is *expecting* to win in the long run when you *expect* to win in the long run. You may lose a bet on an 4-1 shot that loses to an odds-on favoritre, but, if your 4-1 shot wins 25% of the time, you show a 25% long term profit.

It is a practical mathematical impossibility to win in the long run when you expect to lose in the long run. And, although you have a long term positive ROI you are still gambling if you overbet your bankroll, placing too much emphasis on the outcome of any given race.

What does it take to win? Scott McMannis, a professional handicapper in Chicago used to say it takes three things:
1) Superior handicapping information
2) Superior handicapping skill
3) Superior Money Management
Superior to what or to whom? Superior to that possessed by the peope who bet into the same pool you do.

The other thing he used to say was "For me, a fun bet is a bet that wins. All my bets are serious and I don't throw my hard-earned money away."

[Overlay]

Amen to that. Determine when you have an edge in the odds, and then wager for the long term, rather than risking your entire stake on a single bet, as would be optimal in a game with a negative expectation.

[v_d_g]

I drafted this a while back, don't know if I posted it or not, could have. I know it's not ready for print, :D just a mixture of thoughts with numbers. I don't think there's much in it thats new for experienced players or if they will agree 100% or not. I would apperciate any input, might be a thread that you all can add to giving new handicappers something to think about or learn.

Can't say for sure as I haven't read it BUT
it definitely must be PROFOUND.

Unfortunately, too busy watching replays and probably will never get to read it. My loss.

I'm surprised at the level and quantity of scholarship that comes out of this forum.

My hat's off to all of you. PROLIFIC, to say the least.

You're clearly the handicapping intelligencia.

Keep it up.

[twindouble]

Amen to that. Determine when you have an edge in the odds, and then wager for the long term, rather than risking your entire stake on a single bet, as would be optimal in a game with a negative expectation.

Yes your right, I wouldn't suggest to anyone to bet the house on one race or empty their pockets on a whim.

Lets face it, we aren't buying government bonds here that will eventually mature. There's a lot better financial investments out there that are a lot lower in risk than gambling on the horses. Besides the majority of races are run in less than 2 min, nothing long term involved there, you end up with a win or trash in the basket, nothing tangible to cut your loss.

There's no "Amen" golden rules that apply to handicapping or wagering, basics yes.

[twindouble]

Can't say for sure as I haven't read it BUT
it definitely must be PROFOUND.

Unfortunately, too busy watching replays and probably will never get to read it. My loss.

I'm surprised at the level and quantity of scholarship that comes out of this forum.

My hat's off to all of you. PROLIFIC, to say the least.

You're clearly the handicapping intelligencia.

Keep it up.

You should add an H to your handle. Very Dam Good Handicapper. No need to learn anything here. :D

[Overlay]

There's no "Amen" golden rules that apply to handicapping or wagering, basics yes.

By saying "Amen to that", I didn't mean to imply that the point I was commenting on was the final, unchanging, revealed truth about handicapping. I was just voicing my strong agreement with the idea that betting on horses with toteboard odds which are higher than their true chance of winning is a key component of my own approach to handicapping, and a surer way of achieving consistent bottom-line success for me than concentrating only on finding and betting the one most likely winner of any given race, regardless of its odds.

[JackS]

Learn all the basic and well published "rules" then add a speed/pace method and live to the letter of these rules and methods for six months and expect losses in the 5-%10 range. Your experience should now allow you to break some of these rules at times which could possibly set you up as a winning handicapper.

[Doug3312]

Since I started handicapping my intent was to win. Not gamble. So far I have acheived a win % of over 30 and an ROI of over 30%. For me if I want to gamble, then I would shoot craps of something else. With handicapping I believe one should be in for the long haul. It is simply to complicated to do otherwise.

[twindouble]

By saying "Amen to that", I didn't mean to imply that the point I was commenting on was the final, unchanging, revealed truth about handicapping. I was just voicing my strong agreement with the idea that betting on horses with toteboard odds which are higher than their true chance of winning is a key component of my own approach to handicapping, and a surer way of achieving consistent bottom-line success for me than concentrating only on finding and betting the one most likely winner of any given race, regardless of its odds.


On my "Amen" comment it was just a statement, I really wasn't tring to pick your post apart. Anyway, can't disagree with what's in bold but the way you put it, it's kind of broad statement. It's like saying picking winners with value are a key component in my handicapping achieving consistent bottom line success. The question from any beginner would be, how do you go about that?

[twindouble]

Learn all the basic and well published "rules" then add a speed/pace method and live to the letter of these rules and methods for six months and expect losses in the 5-%10 range. Your experience should now allow you to break some of these rules at times which could possibly set you up as a winning handicapper.

Here again Jack; Your statement is to general. What are "all the basic and well published rule." I have yet to read any books on handicapping in my 45 years of experience.

[46zilzal]

It is EASIER to start out learning now than years ago, LESS TO UNLEARN!

[twindouble]

It is EASIER to start out learning now than years ago, LESS TO UNLEARN!


What book on adolescents you pull that from? Better yet what's your favorite bubble gum? :lol:

[JackS]

Twin- Guess we could start with the "don'ts
Don't play horses moving up in class
" " stretching out the first time
" " adding weight that they have never carried successfuly before
" " shortning up after routing, routing after sprinting.
" " trying turf or off track the first time
" " less than 10% in the win column, Jocks less then 10% trainers less than 10% etc etc etc.

The "do's" are also pretty general.

[twindouble]

Twin- Guess we could start with the "don'ts
Don't play horses moving up in class
" " stretching out the first time
" " adding weight that they have never carried successfuly before
" " shortning up after routing, routing after sprinting.
" " trying turf or off track the first time
" " less than 10% in the win column, Jocks less then 10% trainers less than 10% etc etc etc.

The "do's" are also pretty general.

Thanks, Jack; Lets see what the responces will be. With such low percentages some angle players are up agains't it.

[twindouble]

[QUOTE=JackS]Twin- Guess we could start with the "don'ts
Don't play horses moving up in class
" " stretching out the first time
" " adding weight that they have never carried successfuly before
" " shortning up after routing, routing after sprinting.
" " trying turf or off track the first time
" " less than 10% in the win column, Jocks less then 10% trainers less than 10% etc etc etc.

The "do's" are also pretty general.[/QUOTE

Jack; Seems like this thread died in it's tracks, would still like to know the "do's" without any etc's. :)

I'll carry on with the risk factors I mentioned realitive to gambling and how to limit the risk. Keeping in mind there's no order to what I say.

#1 one of the most exciting races are where you bet a deep closer and he makes that big closing move 20 or more back, exciting yes but I don't bet heavy on those types because to many things can happen unless they clearly out class the field, I'll use them as fillers only in the gimmicks or on the low side of my investment in the picks.

More to come.

T.D.

[railjunkie]

<The "do's" are also pretty general>

Hey Twin. Here's another "do" to add to your "do" list. Do check out what this Suff dude did at Belmont yesterday.It was an education on how a few legitimate longshots that the handicappping public missed resulted in a boxcar payday for the man. The best way to educate the novice is by picking winners and explaning your reasoning. All the rest is just idle chatter. Show us the money!
Tim

[twindouble]

<The "do's" are also pretty general>

Hey Twin. Here's another "do" to add to your "do" list. Do check out what this Suff dude did at Belmont yesterday.It was an education on how a few legitimate longshots that the handicappping public missed resulted in a boxcar payday for the man. The best way to educate the novice is by picking winners and explaning your reasoning. All the rest is just idle chatter. Show us the money!
Tim

Hey Tim, how are ya? No Saratoga for me this year, took a small job that turned into a monster plus I'm getting ready to sell my own house. There's a good possibility for Belmont though.

On Suff, I never questioned his ability to handicap and pick winners, we all have days even weeks where everything goes well and yes I hope to think all good handicappers look for value. I'm making up this thread as we go here, learning how to pick winners and reading the form is a must so I agree.
Jump in, I'm sure you have more to offer a beginner. The only problem is, I don't know if there's any beginners here. :D Why I don't know.

T.D.

[46zilzal]

This is a PARIMUTUEL game, so once the basics are ingrained, one has to become a BIT of an iconoclast, looking at subsets of information that will yield profits or one is doomed.

I tell folks that they should become experts of little understood distances (i.er 7.5 furlongs) or what makes LONG marathoners click, or go where the crowds are not: little venues. To make against the big guns and big venues is very difficult. Cut your competition.

[twindouble]

This is a PARIMUTUEL game, so once the basics are ingrained, one has to become a BIT of an iconoclast, looking at subsets of information that will yield profits or one is doomed.

I tell folks that they should become experts of little understood distances (i.er 7.5 furlongs) or what makes LONG marathoners click, or go where the crowds are not: little venues. To make against the big guns and big venues is very difficult. Cut your competition.


Had to look up iconoclast, ( one who attacks and seeks to destroy widely accepted ideas, beliefs etc. And what would that included when it comes to playing the horses?

I agree on the little venues, been doing that for years.


T.D.

[46zilzal]

that is a really harsh definition for just looking at things differently

How about heteroclite?

[twindouble]

that is a really harsh definition for just looking at things differently

How about heteroclite?

That's much better, departing from the standard or norm. :) Won't be long and I'll graduate from English 101. LOL.


I'm going to just carry on with with the risk factors and gambling for now. Maybe I'll draw in some beginners to this thread, if not I'm blowing smoke in the wind.

When it comes to 2 and 3yo races as a rule I don't like to wager big on those type of races for the simple reason these horses are in their learning and maturing stages, guessing on how they will perform from race to race is just to risky for me. Now that don't mean their isn't handicappers out there that follow their progress very closely as they go and have good reasons to wager on them. I don't follow them that close because I handicap the lower claiming ranks and just pass on them when all possable. I feel older horses are more consistant and have devloped their running stlye. Plus, they aren't likely to improve 10 or more legnths over night. So from my point of view that cuts down on the risk factor when your gambling. At given times, I like to have fun so I'll just play the card regardless.

T.D.

[DJofSD]

Had to look up iconoclast, ( one who attacks and seeks to destroy widely accepted ideas, beliefs etc. And what would that included when it comes to playing the horses?

The Breeder's Cup (oh OK, the WTC) happens in about 1 month.

Look at the hyped/over-hyped horses picked by those that tout races for a living. Then watch to see how many of those actually win.

Those icons of the handicapping world will promote the usual list of factors to predict the winner. The actual winner will not have any of those factors as a consideration.

They promote themselves as gods or the public puts them on a pedistle. Those that can find the winners will cause those icons to fall -- at least until the next race.

DJofSD

[twindouble]

Had to look up iconoclast, ( one who attacks and seeks to destroy widely accepted ideas, beliefs etc. And what would that included when it comes to playing the horses?

The Breeder's Cup (oh OK, the WTC) happens in about 1 month.

Look at the hyped/over-hyped horses picked by those that tout races for a living. Then watch to see how many of those actually win.

Those icons of the handicapping world will promote the usual list of factors to predict the winner. The actual winner will not have any of those factors as a consideration.

They promote themselves as gods or the public puts them on a pedistle. Those that can find the winners will cause those icons to fall -- at least until the next race.

DJofSD

Harvy Pack always says this is one game that will humble anyone, not an exact quote but it says a lot. That's one reason why I said check the ego at the door. If there's anything that will put a good handicapper down, it's his ego tring to show the world he's the best. I've seen many come and go. A good gambler is reserved on the outside but serious when he knows the edge is in his favor. Further more anyone who puts himself above all others in this game doesn't understand or have a handle on it in my opinion. It's like showing respect for your fellow workers and acknowledging their time and effort they put in. There's guy and gals out there that live this game day and night so anyone passing judgement should look at himself first and play the game weighing concensus. Like I said elsewhere, that very concensus determins the odds and governs your potential to make money.

Good luck,

T.D.

[toetoe]

Jack S. has a great point -- know when to break the rules. It follows that these extra 'iconoclastic' wagers will put you over the top, with any luck.l

[twindouble]

Jack S. has a great point -- know when to break the rules. It follows that these extra 'iconoclastic' wagers will put you over the top, with any luck.l

I can see stepping out when you have a good edge but I would leave the seek and destroy to the military.

[twindouble]

TTT;

This is the stuborn side of me keeping this thread going. :bang:

For beginners only;

When it comes to risking your money one of the most interesting and fascinating things I've observed playing the horses in how people handle their money along with how they wager. Some are down right funny others you scratch your head wondering how they can play the horses having no regard for their money. You can tell a lot about how a person gambles just by the way they handle their money. For example, here's a guy that has a wad of money in his pocket all crunched up, one's ten's, 5's and 20's and a couple hundred dollar bills mixed in. He goes to the window, pulls out what ever he can droping money out his hands looking for the right amount, not withstanding he dropped a twenty reaching to begin with 6 feet back. Even when he cashes, he'll scoop up the money without counting, racing to the sellers window for the next race. His wagering strategy is more than likey as sloppy as his money handling and I would venture to say, he lives the same way. Handling your money loosely invites those tellers that have the slight of hand down pat, plus you would be suprised as to who else would take advantage.

I'm not saying you have to worship the buck but at least have some respect for it while your gambling.

[46zilzal]

I help seniors groups have a Day at the Races all the time and I enlighten them to pace handicapping and tell them to just settle on the sprints as a starting point and they adapt easily. One gal came up to me and told me she "had never considered looking at the races that way before" and had a winning day, felt good about it that she had used LOGIC and not so much LUCK.

Seniors are amazing in their capacity to learn and continue to surpirse the hell out of me.

[twindouble]

I help seniors groups have a Day at the Races all the time and I enlighten them to pace handicapping and tell them to just settle on the sprints as a starting point and they adapt easily. One gal came up to me and told me she "had never considered looking at the races that way before" and had a winning day, felt good about it that she had used LOGIC and not so much LUCK.

Seniors are amazing in their capacity to learn and continue to surpirse the hell out of me.

Being a "senior", I apperciate anyone who shows that type of respect and willingness to give them the time of day and you go much further than most would. Hat's off to you.

Any new handicapper has to get a reasonalble handle on pace, that's a must and I can understand why some want to define it further with new figures. Even if these figure help, there's always the risk of leaning to much on them.

I think one of the most challenging things new handicappers have is understanding the conditions of the race and evaluating how meaningful or meaningless they are when it comes to the tracks your playing including trainer intent. Defining class is even harder than estimating pace and speed because all three are relevant.

I have found that by playing the lower claiming ranks over time I can group the majority of the horses stabled at the the track and only concern myself with shippers. It becomes allmost unnessary to read the conditions with the exception of distance, turf and purce, that's because there's not much that seperates them to begin with when it comes to class. I zero in on currant form, form cycles and trainer patterns, (intent), distance and pace along with running style. So, over time playing that track, you'll group those horses that are just marginal when it comes to class.

I personally would like to see changes on how we classify horses and standardize the written conditions at every track, nothing gets my goat more when I see sound horses win a $26,000 Alw race at one track, then drop down to a $30,000 or $20,000 claimers and not hit the board in 5 attempts, go to another track and be compitive in Alw company. Anyway that's another thread. I know I didn't cover the full written conditions on the obove example but you get the point.

Good luck,

T.D.

[twindouble]

To carry on;


For the novice attempting to limit risk while gambling, can be drawn into and influnced by many things that happen at the track. For example, the hot tip from the barn, the ower just planked down a ton of money on his horse or the groom, the jock nodded his head to someone, that guy just put a grand on the 5 horse, the only time this guy comes to the track is when he's got something good, the book laid off money on the 1 horse, the jocks girl friend makes his bets, smart money is on the 2, went from 6-1 to 2-1 the last min. Yes, this will influnce you and impact your bankroll, in time it wipe it out. As soon as you step outside your own handicapping you lose controll over everything your attempting to do.

People wagering online are less apt to fall into that trap with the exception of leaning to much on tote movements. Smart money can very well create that huge overlay on the horse you picked or validate what you see in a horse that may cause you pass for a better race with value.


Good luck,

T.D.

[twindouble]

What the heck, I'll keep going before my batteries ware out.

Just couple more thing on limiting risk, this is a little outside the box. Unnecessary pressure to win will do a lot damage to anyone's bankroll. Every good gambler knows not to cross that bridge. Anyone who feels their losses will or have effected their personal life have crossed that bridge, nothing but bad decisions will result. Your wagering strategy will also impact your risk factor so a sound one will limit that risk. By sound, I mean one that works for you that incompasses your handicapping abilities, class and the venues you elect to play.


The theme sofar has been gambling and limiting risk, of course picking winners and key horses is the most important thing but you can make money by not having key horses or a lock for a winner by imploying that wagering strategy once you figure who the compition is. (that would be in the gimmicks or picks.) Not with standing the need for a bankroll.

What's involed in picking horses vary from handicapper to handicapper, ESP today with speed figures, computer programs and pace figures. The consensus here and elsewhere is, you should use all the tools you can muster up to help you pick horses. Me, I like to keep things simple and not overload myself with all the tools, angles and stats that are out there. What works for me don't mean you won't find you won't find your own way to pick horses but there are basics in handicapping that in my opinon will never change.

I would hope to think any beginner that has been reading this thread has allready purchaced a racing form is learning or has learned how to read it. So, at this point the only way I'll know who's interested in nailing down basic handicapping and wagering strategies is for them to come forward and ask questions of me and all the knowledgeable people on this forum. Otherwise there's no need go further with this thread. Except to say, buy all the books you can on playing the horses and read them.


Good luck,

T.D.

[twindouble]

It's evident that there's no beginners on this site, so I think I'll create my own numbers, they will not only include the Beyer figures also,cj's, energy expended, energy in reserve, loss of ground, post position, wind and wind direction, post parade fitness, workouts, trainer intent, a quantitative measurement of jocks abilities out of the gate, rating ability, in hand, driving, sence of pace, and meeting weight requirements. Of course all tracks will be inclusive, biases, conditions, track configurations, materials and maintenance. These super numbers will be posted the day before the races with adjustment figures for off tracks, jocky changes, weight changes.




I will reserve the right to amend these figures in the future.





















Just kidding guys. :lol:

T.D.

[twindouble]

You know, it wouldn't be such a bad idea to put the jocks under the microscope. Apply the same in depth analyses as some do here with pace and rate their abilities like I said. Maybe with a closer look we'll see more that what meets the eye not just a win %.




T.D.

[Shuffletracker]

I guess I would label myself as a beginner and I have enjoyed this thread very much. I do know how to read the DRF. My trouble is trying to figure out with angle to go with. I do agree with a lot of the "do's" that are at the begining of this thread.

I guess I would like to know how much does bloodline and breed on a horse go into your handicapping process. I do like to play the higher priced horses and seem to have some success with them when I bet.

This is something I want to learn more about..any books can you recommend or comments on this subject?

rk

[Overlay]

Shuffletracker:

You might want to check the "Pedigree" thread currently running in the "Handicapping Library" section of the board.

[JackS]

Shuffle- Someone may disagree but I would limit bloodline research to 2-3yo's.
After horses have completed their Nw's series (if successful) they have pretty much exposed any true ability or inability regardless of breeding..
There is a lot of published info on sire ratings so perhaps acquiring one of these pubs would be of benefit o you.

[twindouble]

I guess I would label myself as a beginner and I have enjoyed this thread very much. I do know how to read the DRF. My trouble is trying to figure out with angle to go with. I do agree with a lot of the "do's" that are at the begining of this thread.

I guess I would like to know how much does bloodline and breed on a horse go into your handicapping process. I do like to play the higher priced horses and seem to have some success with them when I bet.

This is something I want to learn more about..any books can you recommend or comments on this subject?

rk

Shuffle; I don't put a lot weight on breeding for the simple reason if you think about limiting the risk (risk assessment) in your wagering breeding shouldn't be a big factor because your not wagering on first time starters (2yo's) or young horses that are maturing and inproving.

You have to decide what kind of handicapper you want to be, if it's rubbing elbo's with the elite, impressing them with your knowledge of pedigree along with the historical aspect of the game, your on your way to becoming a public handicapper, not a gambler. Nothing wrong with that because it is realivent when it comes to major stake races that draws a lot of public attention. I do wager on those races only because it's an event that every horse player should be interested in but when it comes to young horses the risk goes up, in most cases they are very competitive, lightly raced and to unpredictable so I don't go all out wagering on them.

Like I said, there's handicappers out there that follow the babies very closely when it comes to breeding, trainers and connections. How well they do gambling on them I don't know, it's just not my cup of tea. I prefer older horses, that have an established running style in their past performances and aren't stretching out for the first time. I can get my teeth into races like that ESP in lower claiming ranks. When their racing ability is known, breeding is no longer a factor, unless they are tring a different surface or running a longer distance, even then the risk goes up because it's an unknown but is reduced some if you know the trainer is successful at that type of change. The trainer is a very important factor in your handicapping so get to know them.

As far as books go, I've never read any but I'm sure there's good ones out there so I'll let others recommend them.

Good luck and thanks for responding,

T.D.

[twindouble]

Got tired of reading those 4 and 5 paragraph posts on the Steverr1 threads so I thought I'd get back into this one. So, anyone who wants to add something basic for beginners, your welcomed to do so. With all due respect, you guys with the brains try to come down a couple levels and speak to the average guy or gal or as low I you think is neccessary, after all I think they make up the majority of players. To me a well educated person can comunicate on all levels, I would hope to think. If you start with the A B C's of computer handicapping that's fine, it will give me some insight also. For example, anyone who posts abbreviations, spell out what they mean. Also, theres a lot questions that can be answered by advising someone to buy published works out there or posting links but I'm looking for your opinion not someone elses. If you feel the need to give credit to an author that's OK. So, lets play the K.I.S.S game.


I'll add as we go, maybe I'm being presumptuous but what the heck, I'm a gambler. ^ big word for me, I'm proud of that one. :)

[twindouble]

I thought this would be a good time to bring this thread to the top. Just read my prior post and mybe we can get something rolling.






Thanks,

T.D.

[mainardi]

Some lessons gleaned from a degenerate gambler (no, not me... my Dad): :p

1. Gamble with gambling money... keep your "daily life" money separate.

2. Engage in thoughtful handicapping... be intelligent about how you wager.

3. Don't chase your losses... there's always another day.

4. Learn from other handicappers... especially when they're wrong.

5. If you can't control yourself... get out NOW!

[twindouble]

Some lessons gleaned from a degenerate gambler (no, not me... my Dad): :p

1. Gamble with gambling money... keep your "daily life" money separate.

2. Engage in thoughtful handicapping... be intelligent about how you wager.

3. Don't chase your losses... there's always another day.

4. Learn from other handicappers... especially when they're wrong.

5. If you can't control yourself... get out NOW!

Joe, is that a picture of you and your sweety or your daughter? :)

Had to pack it in, was late here on the east coast. #4 cracked me up, your dad I bet is one hell of a guy, haven't met many gamblers that I didn't like. :cool:

Well, I realy don't know where I'm going with this thread at this point, I've dropped it more than once. From where I operate it cuts across the grain with with many people here that are into programs.

There are those who think anyone that offers up anything must have a motive, like something to sell or is just on an ego trip and will eventually be exposed as a fraud. I just like chewing the fat when it comes to racing and I love it. Unlike Boxcar I'll never retire from it all together, slowing down some yes. Prior to gearing down for retirement, I didn't have time to mess around on the internet, as a matter of fact I had to learn how to type. With work and the horses and all that was on my plate there wasn't much time anyway.


Anyone who shoots their mouth off when it comes to handicapping and wagering, they will eventually like most have said have to prove themselves to be taken seriously. What's a guy to do or say if he already entered the war years ago and has survived with reasonable success, I'm sure as heck not going to muster up a peanut gallery to support me in what I've done and to a lesser degree still doing it.

At given points here I was concluding it would impossable to counter the computer wizzards here when it comes to handicapping and wagering. PA said hang in, you'll find a place because this forum isn't all about computer progams. Well, try to fit in when everyone is talking about building bridges and you log for a living. :sleeping:

Anyway, getting back to putting Boxcar to the fire to pick horses prior to the race, not many here do that from what I gather. I'm not talking just posting numbers but give reasons why you like the horses or don't like them. I'd be will to do that once in a while and would also invite TLG or anyone eles regardless of what their methods are. Not to compete with them but like TLG said give the newbees a clue as to how we go about making slections and wagering.

Some have inferred that the best players keep their secrete weapons to themselves, that cracked me up because all the weapons are available are in the race as you see it but to me the best weapon is having the bankroll to follow through.

Ok, I've rambled enough,

T.D.

[mainardi]

Joe, is that a picture of you and your sweety or your daughter?
It's my daughter... she got most of her looks from Mom. She just turned 15 (no boy trouble YET!) and she loves going to the track with me... hasn't asked for gambling money yet. ;)

[twindouble]

It's my daughter... she got most of her looks from Mom. She just turned 15 (no boy trouble YET!) and she loves going to the track with me... hasn't asked for gambling money yet. ;)

She's a beautiful girl and so was mine and boy inside I was a basket case all through her teens. Just one girl and four boys. Today, I'm real prowd of her, I'm just one lucky dude. Love goes a long way so not to worry. Well, I can say that now. :)


Good luck,''

T.D.

[twindouble]

Tomorrow, if I like the conditions at Mountaineer I may post a run down on how I see a race or two. Believe me this won't be a boxcar type run down, I'll do a KISS with just basic handicapping. Just keep in mind, I lose more races than I win but I manage to fair well over the long run. As a matter of fact, the last 3 weeks I just managed to stay ahead just a few bucks and that included a 16 or 17 race losing streak. To me that's good for this old man, how does that song go? " I'm as good once like I used to be." :cool:


Oh yes, it will be posted before the race goes off and I'll welcome anyone else that want's to break the race down and give reasons. Who knows, I might like what they come up with. I'll post what race early so there will be plenty of time to handicap it.

PA might want it on the slections forum but if it's examples in handicapping, I'd like to keep it here.


T.D.

[Sean Rua]

Hi TD,

Thanks for running this interesting thread. I'm gambling for more than 40 years myself, but when it comes to American racing, I'm a newbie.

So, first, I want to pick just one track and become a specialist. I'm toying with the idea of Aqueduct, but I need advice here.

Any tips?

I picked Aqueduct because it's about the nearest to me ( just about 4000 miles away, I think!), but when the big bird delivers me safely to Kennedy, I don't think I'll be too far away.

And, anyway, I'm going to play on the Exchanges on the 'net.

OK, once you've steered me to the right track to begin, I'll start bombarding you with questions!

Best regards,

Sean Rua.

[twindouble]

Sean;

Thanks for giving this thread some validity, anyone who has been gambling for 40 years and dimwits it is surely welcomed. :cool:

What tracks will be available to you on the Exchanges? Also, do you use any handicapping software? It's important for me to know the above because all I use is The Daily Racing Form. When it comes to handicapping software I welcome those here that are into it big time, so either way your at the right place. Myself, I'm set in my ways.


T.D.

[Sean Rua]

Hi TD,

It's 10.30pm Saturday where I am, and here's a view of the markets available on an exchange I can play on

""Horse RacingUSA
http://cache.betfair.com/exchange-web/resources/betfair/standard/common/content/images/common/spacer.gif
ANTEPOSTCharlT (US) 25th FebGulf (US) 25th FebHawth (US) 25th FebOaklP (US) 25th FebSanta (US) 25th FebT Para (US) 25th FebTampa (US) 25th FebTurfway (US) 25th Feb""http://cache.betfair.com/exchange-web/resources/betfair/standard/common/content/images/common/spacer.gifhttp://cache.betfair.com/exchange-web/resources/betfair/standard/common/content/images/common/spacer.gifhttp://cache.betfair.com/exchange-web/resources/betfair/standard/common/content/images/common/spacer.gif
I'm open to suggestions.

I expect I'll be using the DRF when I get going.

No, I don't use any computer programs or anything like that; pen and paper plus observation are my way.

I didn't look into this thoroughly yet, but I expect to find a way to play on the US totes. Some people here are using Pinnacle and various sportsbooks.

Here I specialise in Polytrack in the winter ( there are only two of these tracks open at present) and flat turf March thru November.

Maybe I should consider Turfway?

Btw, if there's anything you'd like to know about the Irish and British scene, I'll do my best to find the info you require.

Sean Rua.

[twindouble]

Sean;

Thanks for giving this thread some validity, anyone who has been gambling for 40 years and dimwits it is surely welcomed. :cool:

What the hell?? I can't believe I wrote dimwits it in that post.:bang:


Sean, sure it was late and I was out bowling but dam, I only had a couple drinks. I meant to say admits. :confused: Anyway, sorry about that.


adm,adm, adm, adm adm adm adm adm adm adm adm adm adm adm adm adm adm adm adm:mad:

[Sean Rua]

No problem, TD.


I just assumed it was some term I didn't know about!

Btw, on the betfair forum -which is as crazy as an asylum - there's a section for American racing. One guy there reckons he targets the Southern California tracks at a certain time of night because he says, he can find some crazy prices arising after the players have had a good drinking session.

Sounds like a good plan, but I didn't try it yet.

Being from Ireland, I used to love drinking. It was OK when I was young.
I spent most my money on gambling, drinking and women. The rest I just wasted!

All the best of fortune,

Sean Rua.

[twindouble]

Hi TD,

It's 10.30pm Saturday where I am, and here's a view of the markets available on an exchange I can play on

""Horse RacingUSA
http://cache.betfair.com/exchange-web/resources/betfair/standard/common/content/images/common/spacer.gif
ANTEPOSTCharlT (US) 25th FebGulf (US) 25th FebHawth (US) 25th FebOaklP (US) 25th FebSanta (US) 25th FebT Para (US) 25th FebTampa (US) 25th FebTurfway (US) 25th Feb""http://cache.betfair.com/exchange-web/resources/betfair/standard/common/content/images/common/spacer.gifhttp://cache.betfair.com/exchange-web/resources/betfair/standard/common/content/images/common/spacer.gifhttp://cache.betfair.com/exchange-web/resources/betfair/standard/common/content/images/common/spacer.gif
I'm open to suggestions.

I expect I'll be using the DRF when I get going.

No, I don't use any computer programs or anything like that; pen and paper plus observation are my way.

I didn't look into this thoroughly yet, but I expect to find a way to play on the US totes. Some people here are using Pinnacle and various sportsbooks.

Here I specialise in Polytrack in the winter ( there are only two of these tracks open at present) and flat turf March thru November.

Maybe I should consider Turfway?

Btw, if there's anything you'd like to know about the Irish and British scene, I'll do my best to find the info you require.

Sean Rua.

Turfway sounds like a good idea. Here's the racing dates along with Gulfstream.


Track Info - Turfway Park
2006 Racing Dates http://drf.com/images/tplogo.gif January 1 - April 6
September 6 - October 5
November 26 - December 31



Gulfstream; Jan 4th April 23rd.


T.D.

[RaceIsClosed]

Jack S. has a great point -- know when to break the rules. It follows that these extra 'iconoclastic' wagers will put you over the top, with any luck.l

By definition, the "iconoclast" would also be ridiculed by the very people he's beating, because "everyone" disagrees with him.

[GaryG]

Jack S. has a great point -- know when to break the rules. It follows that these extra 'iconoclastic' wagers will put you over the top, with any luck.lLet's hear it for the iconoclasts among us! Otherwise we would be just another of the sheep, and you know where they are headed. :jump:

[Sean Rua]

Yeah, RIC,
I guess the Iconoclast will develop a thick enough skin to ward off any " ridicule" as he laughs all the way to the bank.

Then the ridicule may turn to jealousy. Perhaps in this game, it's better to be rich than popular. We can't please all the people all the time, so we may as well please ourselves. Let the crowd go the way they want to go.

TD,

I'll try to concentrate on Turfway. Research begins right now.

When I'm clued up, I'll be back.

Btw, here's a list a guy posted up as his favourite top US trainers:

1 - Todd Pletcher
2 - Bobby Frankel
3 - Nick Zito
4 - Bill Mott
5 - Neil Drysdale
6 - Neil Howard
7 - Rick Dutrow
8 - Troy Bainum (king of turf paradise)
9 - Christophe Clement
10 - Bob Baffert.

Will any of these race at Turfway?

Regards,

Sean Rua.

[twindouble]

Let's hear it for the iconoclasts among us! Otherwise we would be just another of the sheep, and you know where they are headed. :jump:

Why don't you guys come right out and say it? You think traditional handicapping will no longer lead to profit, and you all broke the mold so everyone else is a potential loser.

Sheep, that's a laugh because what I do has been out there for over a 100 years where as you modern handicappers, if you want to call yourself handicappers, have the burden of proof and just throwing in a dig here and there doesn't further your cause.

If I'm misinterpreting what you are saying you'll have to excuse me but take the time to explain how you come about that money making machine and why it works better than just reading the DRF and following the horses.

From what I've read here so far when it comes to handicapping software they produce just speed figures and everyone is struggling with making sense of all the other variables that are inherent in horse racing, no different than what we traditional handicappers have to master to some degree to make money. So, I don't think anyone has broke the mold even when it comes to churning with a huge bankroll, it was evident to me early on that having capital increases you ability to make money be it horse racing or any other venture. That goes without saying.

To take the position that my way of doing things no longer amounts to a rats ass is ludicrous because what I do is very much a part of any program that can be created.

Here again, I apologize if I'm in left field on what your saying.

T.D.

[twindouble]

Yeah, RIC,
I guess the Iconoclast will develop a thick enough skin to ward off any " ridicule" as he laughs all the way to the bank.

Then the ridicule may turn to jealousy. Perhaps in this game, it's better to be rich than popular. We can't please all the people all the time, so we may as well please ourselves. Let the crowd go the way they want to go.

TD,

I'll try to concentrate on Turfway. Research begins right now.

When I'm clued up, I'll be back.

Btw, here's a list a guy posted up as his favourite top US trainers:

1 - Todd Pletcher
2 - Bobby Frankel
3 - Nick Zito
4 - Bill Mott
5 - Neil Drysdale
6 - Neil Howard
7 - Rick Dutrow
8 - Troy Bainum (king of turf paradise)
9 - Christophe Clement
10 - Bob Baffert.

Will any of these race at Turfway?

Regards,

Sean Rua.

Well yes on the above trainers but I don't think you'll find them at Turfway. Just to let you know, my tracks are Aqueduct, Belmont, Finger lakes and right now I'm at Mountaineer. I picked on Mnr because it's pretty much year round racing and the low end of the claiming ranks that I've been playing for many years.

The question I have for you is, are you familiar with the Daily Racing Form?

T.D.

[Sean Rua]

I'm not familiar with DRF yet, TD, but I know it's the right place to look.

I'll google anywhere and everywhere first, before I knuckle down to proper study.

Maybe you could help me with a general query?

You mentioned the lower claiming ranks. What are the terms and conditions about these?

I'll focus on this type of race at Turfway. Right now, I don't even know the definition! Maybe "dimwit" was correct in the first place and after all?!

Sean Rua ( old-timer new kid)

[twindouble]

Yes, go to DRF.com. Home page right upper corner go to site map. On the bottom you see a help section, covers how to read the form and more. Take note you can get track info, trainer, jock and so on. Once you get started any questions can be answered on this forum.


T.D.

[RaceIsClosed]

Yeah, RIC,
I guess the Iconoclast will develop a thick enough skin to ward off any " ridicule" as he laughs all the way to the bank.

Then the ridicule may turn to jealousy. Perhaps in this game, it's better to be rich than popular. We can't please all the people all the time, so we may as well please ourselves. Let the crowd go the way they want to go.

TD,

I'll try to concentrate on Turfway. Research begins right now.

When I'm clued up, I'll be back.

Btw, here's a list a guy posted up as his favourite top US trainers:

1 - Todd Pletcher
2 - Bobby Frankel
3 - Nick Zito
4 - Bill Mott
5 - Neil Drysdale
6 - Neil Howard
7 - Rick Dutrow
8 - Troy Bainum (king of turf paradise)
9 - Christophe Clement
10 - Bob Baffert.

Will any of these race at Turfway?

Regards,

Sean Rua.

I hear Drysdale worked 4f in 46.2 bg over the polytrack.

[twindouble]

Sean;

Website: www.turfway.com (http://www.turfway.com)


T.D.

[Sean Rua]

Thanks, TD.

I have a lot to do. I need to make sure that I can access the markets for my chosen tracks.

Angeleyes has started a thread because he's having problems with Betfair.

No point becoming an expert on something that can't be used!

Sean Rua.

[Sean Rua]

It seems the jockey J. Leparoux is the man at Turfway lately.

Is he free-lance or does he ride only for certain trainers?


Sean Rua.

[twindouble]

It seems the jockey J. Leparoux is the man at Turfway lately.

Is he free-lance or does he ride only for certain trainers?


Sean Rua.

I couldn't tell you who he's contracted with or if he is at all. Maybe someone can help but I don't know of any site or published paper having that type of information. Some writers do at given times mention who jocks are contracted with but it does become evident over time who the trainers lean on once you get into following what going on at any track. That's what I do.


T.D.

[Murph]

Hi Sean,

Yeah, that Leparoux guy is riding anything with hair and moving them forward more often than not. There may be value in betting against him when his ride does not figure in the top 2 or 3 runners in the field. He started the meet here with P. Biancone's mounts and soon had more than he could ride it looks like. Beware, he is tuff to bet against, but poor to wager on as well because of the odds.

The trainers you mentioned may show up with a horse for The Lane's End Stakes near the end of the meet. It'll be interesting to note who will train for the TC preps on the polytrack too.

If you promise NOT to TELL anyone else, I'll tip you on a couple of trainers who are just starting their careers that have a hot start going at Turfway so far.

Robert Pincins 11 starts 4 wins at the meet. 74% ITM
Lori Daly 7 starts 3 wins 2 for 4 in route races
John Churchman Jr. 5 starts 2 wins 6 for 54 in sprints last 3 yrs.

Amoung established trainers at Turfway Arthur Zeis has 7 winners from 20 starters at the meet and is hitting 60% ITM. He has carved several of my exacta tickets into confetti this year. May be too late to catch him at good odds again this meet.

Hope you enjoy your experiment with American Racing. Keep us posted on your progress!

Murph

[Sean Rua]

Thanks for the replies, fellas!

I'll keep monitoring till I get a feel for what's going down. Here we keep an eye on profitable trainer/jockey combos; not necessarily the ones who get the most winners , but the ones who return the best profits!

Just in passing, here's another list some guy put up as his favourite jockeys in America:

Bejerano
Velasquez
Prado
Dominquez
Valenzuela.

I have no notion whether these guys would ever ride at TP, but I'll keep my eyes peeled, and see what develops.

Yes, Murph, I understand the point about hot jocks getting overbet and being poor value.
It's not so bad for me as I can play on betfair: this means I can bet the guy to lose if the price is real short!

Anyway, I'll take things nice and easy. I will return!

Sean Rua

[Murph]

Thanks for the replies, fellas!

Yes, Murph, I understand the point about hot jocks getting overbet and being poor value.
It's not so bad for me as I can play on betfair: this means I can bet the guy to lose if the price is real short!

Sean Rua

Not talking down to you Sean, that was kind of a general discalimer about Leproux. You obviously have a keen understanding of the odds.

Did you catch the 6th race at Turfway last Sunday?

The winner, 1 - Angel of Love, Bay Filly, 3, by Lord Carson - Filet by Full Pocket
is bred, owned and trained by John Churchman Jr. This runner gained 10 lenghts on the turn and and was just up by a neck at the wire. This in spite of Castanon losing the whip with about 200 yards to go. She paid $8 to win and she defeated the top 2 favorites this day.

Quite exciting at the finish, I thought.

Murph