DMR Post Positions

[Dave Schwartz]

I got a request yesterday to do a post position analysis of races at Delmar from last year. It was very interesting and I thought I would share it.

Pay special attention to PP 1.

Dave


DMR 5.5F
PP
--
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV
--------------------------------------------------------
1 34 1 2.9 $0.41 0.26 0.30
2 34 6 17.6 $4.04 1.57 1.61
3 34 6 17.6 $1.46 1.57 1.31
4 34 1 2.9 $1.34 0.26 0.24
5 34 3 8.8 $2.38 0.78 0.96
6 32 5 15.6 $2.63 1.43 1.30
7 32 4 12.5 $1.58 1.16 1.02
8 25 3 12.0 $2.25 1.21 1.03
9 22 3 13.6 $0.96 1.43 1.06
10 16 1 6.3 $0.70 0.70 0.87
11 12 1 8.3 $0.82 0.96 1.16
12 7 0.0 $0.00 0.00 0.00



DMR - 6F

PP
--
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV
--------------------------------------------------------
1 98 3 3.1 $0.37 0.26 0.27
2 98 9 9.2 $1.37 0.77 0.80
3 98 16 16.3 $2.32 1.36 1.37
4 97 14 14.4 $1.80 1.21 1.08
5 97 12 12.4 $1.47 1.05 1.08
6 95 8 8.4 $1.15 0.72 0.68
7 84 9 10.7 $1.52 0.97 0.98
8 71 15 21.1 $3.52 2.03 1.96
9 52 6 11.5 $1.47 1.20 0.97
10 39 0.0 $0.00 0.00 0.00
11 26 6 23.1 $3.62 2.64 1.93
12 12 0.0 $0.00 0.00 0.00

DMR 6.5F
PP
--
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV
--------------------------------------------------------
1 36 4 11.1 $2.31 0.87 1.05
2 36 7 19.4 $4.87 1.52 1.94
3 36 4 11.1 $0.38 0.87 0.82
4 35 3 8.6 $0.50 0.70 0.58
5 35 5 14.3 $1.28 1.17 1.07
6 33 4 12.1 $1.09 1.03 1.15
7 29 1 3.4 $0.19 0.31 0.33
8 25 2 8.0 $0.34 0.76 0.70
9 16 1 6.3 $0.41 0.66 0.49
10 12 0.0 $0.00 0.00 0.00
11 11 4 36.4 $4.25 4.16 2.68
12 5 1 20.0 $3.92 2.40 3.42

DMR 7F
PP
--
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV
--------------------------------------------------------
1 22 5 22.7 $1.82 1.86 1.76
2 22 3 13.6 $0.95 1.12 1.34
3 22 2 9.1 $1.41 0.74 0.98
4 22 2 9.1 $0.15 0.74 0.71
5 22 3 13.6 $0.86 1.12 0.91
6 20 3 15.0 $2.73 1.31 1.55
7 20 1 5.0 $0.20 0.44 0.31
8 14 2 14.3 $1.49 1.40 1.45
9 11 1 9.1 $0.62 0.95 0.82
10 8 0.0 $2.43 0.00 0.00
11 6 0.0 $0.00 0.00 0.00
12 3 0.0 $0.00 0.00 0.00

DMR 8F
PP
--
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV
--------------------------------------------------------
1 48 4 8.3 $1.60 0.61 0.70
2 48 8 16.7 $1.65 1.21 1.15
3 48 8 16.7 $2.54 1.21 1.10
4 48 9 18.8 $2.28 1.36 1.63
5 47 7 14.9 $1.20 1.10 0.97
6 41 3 7.3 $0.41 0.58 0.57
7 34 2 5.9 $0.36 0.50 0.47
8 25 3 12.0 $0.93 1.11 0.95
9 20 3 15.0 $2.66 1.44 1.28
10 13 1 7.7 $1.91 0.77 0.85


DMR 8.5F
PP
--
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV
--------------------------------------------------------
1 32 3 9.4 $0.78 0.71 0.64
2 32 2 6.3 $0.34 0.48 0.44
3 31 5 16.1 $1.93 1.22 1.08
4 32 5 15.6 $2.75 1.19 1.42
5 31 4 12.9 $1.11 1.01 0.97
6 29 5 17.2 $1.52 1.41 1.41
7 24 2 8.3 $0.60 0.73 0.79
8 18 2 11.1 $0.97 1.07 0.97
9 16 2 12.5 $6.43 1.24 1.41
10 10 1 10.0 $2.02 1.05 1.85
11 4 0.0 $0.00 0.00 0.00
12 2 1 50.0 $3.30 6.00 2.90

[Dick Schmidt]

Before everyone goes nuts and plans to mortgage the hours to play Del Mar, I might add that Dave does his ROI figures based on $2, not one. Thus a $1.80 return is a loss of ten cents on the dollar, $2 is break even and $2.40 is a return of twenty cents on the dollar.

Dick

[alyingthief]

dave:

do you know if this reflects a similar postposition bias from previous meets, or was it a one time affair? i have played dmr fairly regularly, and i don't recall a rail so pronouncedly biased. in fact, isn't dmr's oval unbanked, and aren't the turns very sharp? it would seem to promote the inside positions, would it not? unless the dirt was ungodly deep in lane one...