95% of everything is crap

[GameTheory]

I believe it was a Harlan Ellison essay where I first came across the idea that "95% of everything is sh*t", and I took it to heart. It actually helps me be optimistic.

What am I talking about? Music, movies, art, household products, everything. If you just take it as a given that 95% of any given ANYTHING is garbage, then when you look around and seem to see nothing but garbage, you just have to remember you should only expect 5% of the stuff (at best) to be worthwhile.

For instance, there are lots of good books in the world, but there are a gazillion more bad ones. Same with everything else.


So let's look at horse racing. As has been previously theorized, probably only 5% of bettors make money consistently. Coincidence?

Now let's look at the world of handicapping books, magazines, software programs, etc. In absolute numbers, there aren't that many of them to begin with. Why, I've got to have 20 pieces of software just to be able to have the expectation that one of them is any good.

And how many periodicals are dedicated to horse racing, and handicapping in particular? Two? One and a half?

What about books? A few hundred? And since the game changes over time, how old can a book be and still have value, even if it WAS good? 20 years? 10 years? Less? How many new books do we get every year? Two?

OF COURSE THEY ALL SUCK.

So, when I hear things like, "You can't beat the races with <blank>." or "You can't beat the races AT ALL." my first thought is, well, you know, the jury is still out. Compared to other human endeavors like the stock market, or even playing baseball, not very many people have tried. In terms of software, it is a MIRACLE that any of it works. If you get one good idea out of book, you should be grateful.

I'm not sure what my point is, but I just thought I'd share that. I sure am happy there is a place like this where the 5% gather...

[superfecta]

I adhere more to the 80/20 rule....as in 20 % of the people in the world do the most work,the other 80% enjoy the benefit.Maybe in racing it would be something like 20% of bettors have a clue,the other 80% think they do......

[ranchwest]

God made it all and it all has merit. Sometimes we just have to look more closely and be more open to find the good.

[Amazin]

RW
Amen
GT
Scientist speculate we only use 5% of our brain.I think that has something to do with it

[Lefty]

Amazin, I always thght it was 10% but the more I see of people in my neighborhood and other places, well, maybe we are down to 5%

[alyingthief]

wait, are you telling me my dollar's only worth a nickel?

[so.cal.fan]

GT writes:

"95% of everything is crap
I believe it was a Harlan Ellison essay where I first came across the idea that "95% of everything is sh*t", and I took it to heart. It actually helps me be optimistic. "


How can any of us be pessimists, Game Theory? We DON"T KNOW ENOUGH!!!!!!!



;)

[Lefty]

I like Harlan Ellison's fiction but after seeing him on the now defunct Politically Incorrect show a few times i've come to the conclusion that just about 100& of what he says is crap.

[Handle]

GT,

A good rule of thumb, perhaps, but I don't think its that black and white. Before proceeding, I do admit to a 95% skepticism ratio whenever buying any sort of house hold goods.

Out of the 95% of crap, which percentage of the crap was generated with the intention of being in the other 5%? When I taught university classes, I was constantly confronted with two (of many) "types" of students. Those that could perform if they tried, but they were content to produce crap. And those that tried like hell, but could only produce crap (which, with help, became less stankful crap).

Of each piece in the set of crap and non-crap pieces, what percentage of that piece is crap, and what percent is worthy? Does the 95/5 rule apply recursively ad infinitum down to the atoms that make up each piece? Is this a crappy electron, whereas this other one is not?

Since "nothing under the sun is new", our daily lives are full of more "pieces" that are put together from manifold other pieces. In doing so, I like to think that, even within the crap there is non-crap that can be salvaged to create a more crap-free piece.

-Handle

[Molock]

Actually it was sci-fi writer Theodore Sturgeon who said it, and it even earned the honor among propellor heads of being affectionately labelled Sturgeon's Law.

[GameTheory]

Yes, it wasn't actually Harlan's thought -- I just read about it there. I couldn't remember because I haven't read any of that stuff in at least 10 years.

Does that make me a propellor head?

[alyingthief]

after reading these posts, guess what? i gotta go take a crap.

now, to the refutation of the 95% of any given thing is crap, and 5% is not. as it is a universal, nothing can exist that is not 5% not crap. however, crap itself is 100% crap. therefore, the principle is not a universal, and something is 100% crap (on the basis of this, one must allow that somethings are less than 95% crap, but that's neither here nor there, it's still a bunch of crap).

QED.

[freeneasy]

I dont know Burt

I dont know either Ernie

[Tom]

Originally posted by Amazin

Scientist speculate we only use 5% of our brain.I think that has something to do with it [/B]

You mean if I used 6% of mine, I could rule the world????
In high school, my guidence couselor told me that in a class of 100, I was ranked number 96!
I found 97-98-99-and 100 became their leader!
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