ncaaa football

[freeneasy]

1) a 6 star team is a game where the total score for the two teams i handicapped was equal to the 'total' that is the over/under line that vegas puts out for that same game and
2) the team that is capped as the vegas line favorite and is also capped as my favorite and
3) that team is also capped as my team to win and cover the spread

1) a 5 star team is #1 and
2) is the team that is capped as the 'vegas' dog but
3) is capped as my favorite to win and/or get the spread

1) a 4 star team is #1 and
2) is the team that is capped as the vegas dog and
3) is also capped as my dog but
4) is capped to get the spread

1) a 3 star team is the vegas fav and my fav capped to win and cover the spread
2) a 2 star team is the vegas dog but is capped as my favorite to win and/or get the spread
3) a 1 star team is the vegas dog and my dog capped to cover the spread

its all new the seasons young


boston c +2 1/2 **
minn -3 ***
iowa +7 **
s florida +20 *
maryland +2 1/2 **
georgia -15 ***
duke +24 1/2 ****
ohio -4 ******
tcu +3 1/2 **
alabama -15 ***
colorado +14 *****
n carolina +11****
e carolina +22 *
marshall -3 1/2 ******
no. illinois -7 ***
tennessee +6 1/2 *
wyoming +2 1/2 **
wisconsin +2 1/2 *
san jose +14 *
troy +20 *

tell you what, take all the 2 star teams and up and play em in a $2 14 team parlay. you like action? you want action? well your gonna get it dog right here cause when this puppy dog pops its gonna bite your book for a whole bunch of dollars, 1800 to be exact, go on shoot a buck or two. oh and take the 4,5 and 6 star games and play em in a 5 teamer. 20 to 25-1 odds. :faint:

[kingfin66]

Okay, so there's no such thing as a lock. My very strong opinion, however, is that Notre Dame is going to destroy Washington. I'll take ND and give whatever the sportsbooks want.

[BetHorses!]

Okay, so there's no such thing as a lock. My very strong opinion, however, is that Notre Dame is going to destroy Washington. I'll take ND and give whatever the sportsbooks want.



The line right now is 12.5. I agree with you and gave the points.

[freeneasy]

i put each team thru two processes
first i calulate all the road games that the visiting team has played and all the home games that the home team has played and compare this set against each other to get my first 'final' score
next
i calulate an accumilation of all the games both home and away that each team has played and compare this set against each other to get my second 'final' score.
so with notre dame's road games compared to washingtons's home games i came up with the score
notre dame 33.40
washington 18.55
nd by 14.85
with the total at 51.95

and after comparing all games for n.d. and all games for wash. i came up with a score of
n.d. 33.10
wash 21.84
n.d. by 11.25
with the total at 54.95

the vegas total is 53 1/2 and if you adjust the totals that i have to equal the vegas total then i come up with
n.d 34.40
wash 19.10
n.d. by 15.3 for the first set and

n.d. 32.20
wash 21.25
n.d. by 10.95 for the second set

the road to home game comparison beats the spread but the overall comparison of all games to all games does not

i have a list of 6 professional handicappers who all list n.d. to win this game by 10, 28, 10, 11, 18 and 27 for an avg of n.d. to win by 17.33.
all in all n.d will win the game and i think can get a good cover in this as well

[kingfin66]

free,

I wish I had seen your post before the game was actually played. For the record, Notre Dame covered. What I really wanted to point out, however, is that coming up with 'final scores' in the manner that you do leaves out a lot of vital info. For instance, in Washington's first three games, they played Air Force "on the road," Cal at home and Idaho at home. In the case of the game with Air Force, although it was a road game for the Huskies, it was actualy played in Seattle. Notre Dame played Pitt (away), Michigan (away), and Michigan State (home). There is quite a bit of difference in these schedules making the numbers highly unreliable.

[kingfin66]

I should add, free, that I like the way that you apply a quantitative approach to handicapping. I recall that you do it for college hoops to. There is a lot to be said for handicapping in that manner, especially if you are trying to look at a lot of games.

[freeneasy]

i realize exactly what your saying, taking into account injuries, home field, coaching and all the things that can and do make a difference in allowing and not allowing certain types of points to take place during a game and before the ball is even kicked off, that again, can and do influence the final margin of a football game or any game for that matter.
i just like numbers, and thats one of the reasons i like that tv crime drama "numbers'
those games i put up are by the numbers only, nothing else taken into account simply by the numbers.
just recently a concept came to mind that if the 'total' on my projected score was equal to the o/u 'total' for the vegas line then it would seem ive come to a game where the vegas line is giving the same balence that my number is giving me for that game without doing all the research work that vegas put in to come up with a final score for each team in order to come up with their o/u 'total'. but that didnt fare to well as i went 1-4. its a new concept and at first glance it makes sense. might be worth keeping track of