Great value at Belmont!!! 8-1 goes off at 50-1

[HolyBull29]

The horse goes first time turf. The horse has Forty Niner on the Sires side and Danzig on the dam's side. The horse is put at 8-1 morning line(2 of the 3 handicappers in the paper have it second) The public lets it go off at 46-1!!! When I saw that at OTB,I said I have to put 10 dollars to win on it and throw it over the field in a 2 dollar exacta. The horse rolled by the field to pay $95.00 over a $569.00 exacta. The horse was 8-1 morning line!!! The guy next to me goes"these races are so rigged,the horse has shown nothing,then he wins at 44-1!!" Obviously he didnt see that the horses races were run on dirt, not turf. BIG oversight in his handicapping.

[Fastracehorse]

Congratulations!

I notice alot of longshots shouldn't be as long as they are as well.

There is usually a factor or two that THE PUBLIC doesn't like ( jockey or trainer ) - and the horse keeps drifiting up in value.

fffastt

[JustRalph]

wow, a 44-1 shot brings you out of the lurker wing of the board huh? Nice price.......

[Tom]

If I had a 44-1 shot, I'd be on ALL the boards! :ThmbUp:

Nice hit!

[Jeff P]

posted by Tom - If I had a 44-1 shot, I'd be on ALL the boards! Sometimes I follow what Pittsburgh Phil wrote: Keep quiet as a mouse and bet em for all they're worth.

-jp

.

[Tom]

posted by Tom - Sometimes I follow what Pittsburgh Phil wrote: Keep quiet as a mouse and bet em for all they're worth.

-jp

.


I'd be on them all AFTER the race! :D

[andicap]

The horse goes first time turf. The horse has Forty Niner on the Sires side and Danzig on the dam's side. The horse is put at 8-1 morning line(2 of the 3 handicappers in the paper have it second) The public lets it go off at 46-1!!! When I saw that at OTB,I said I have to put 10 dollars to win on it and throw it over the field in a 2 dollar exacta. The horse rolled by the field to pay $95.00 over a $569.00 exacta. The horse was 8-1 morning line!!! The guy next to me goes"these races are so rigged,the horse has shown nothing,then he wins at 44-1!!" Obviously he didnt see that the horses races were run on dirt, not turf. BIG oversight in his handicapping.

Reminds me of the time I was at the Yonkers Raceway OTB in the general public section (as opposed to where there used to be a restaurant) and I hit a $36 horse -- long but no bumb -- and some lout is screaming at the top of his lungs, "There is NO WAY you could have that horse!!!!" over and over again. I wanted to show him my printout (and winning tickets) where the horse's race three back was the best in the field but figured he was a bit too high strung to listen -- :D

My theory on those surprise 44-1 shots is that people assume that an 8-1 ML horse who is dead on the board at say 15-1 in the early -mid betting has no shot and they just ignore it. That's a much different situation than a 3-1 ML horse (legitimately) is 6-1 at the open, stays there much of the race before the public -- thinking it has a good thing -- pounds it down to 7-2 in the final minutes.
Was there a real hot "steam" horse in the race people were jumping on?

[nobeyerspls]

Congratulations HolyBull29, that's the king of hit that makes any future losing day bearable. On another board they would have crucified you for redboarding as that is held to be right below setting an orphange on fire and picking of the kids in flames with an assault rifle as they exit the building.

I'm glad that this board is open to posts that explain longshot winners even if some are after the fact. If you find one like this again, let us know in advance. We promise not to drop the odds more than twenty points

[kingfin66]

There are several people on this board that red board. It really isn't a big deal. There was actually a thread started by Andicap quite a while back for the very purpose of red boarding big bombs like this one and then explaining, as Holy Bull did, the reasons for betting the bomb.

In my opinion, a bad red board is one where somebody simply gloats about their pick. A good red board is one where somebody gloats about their pick and explains why they were inclined to bet on a 44/1 shot.

Congrats Holy Bull!

You can check out thread I referred to here:

Bombs Away (www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=18924)

[andicap]

I'm glad that this board is open to posts that explain longshot winners even if some are after the fact. If you find one like this again, let us know in advance. We promise not to drop the odds more than twenty points

Uh, I thought you were "gone" after Sunday -- we are after all just a bunch of intolerant jackasses -- so what good would it do for someone to post a good thing here in advance if you're not around to read it?
Unless of course you plan on just lurking here and withholding from us the advantage of your expansive racing knowledge. Or you were just being tongue-in-cheek -- ah....that must be it.

[rokitman]

The horse goes first time turf. The horse has Forty Niner on the Sires side and Danzig on the dam's side. The horse is put at 8-1 morning line(2 of the 3 handicappers in the paper have it second) The public lets it go off at 46-1!!! When I saw that at OTB,I said I have to put 10 dollars to win on it and throw it over the field in a 2 dollar exacta. The horse rolled by the field to pay $95.00 over a $569.00 exacta. The horse was 8-1 morning line!!! The guy next to me goes"these races are so rigged,the horse has shown nothing,then he wins at 44-1!!" Obviously he didnt see that the horses races were run on dirt, not turf. BIG oversight in his handicapping.

Congrats HB! Redboard all ya want. It may be 10 years before you get to do it again! :ThmbUp:

[HolyBull29]

Yeah I didnt mean to gloat. I was just reporting something I thought was un believable. A 8-1 morning line horse and the public sends him off at almost 50-1. I had to put money on it,just on principle. Had to be 8-1 ML for a reason,and when I saw his odds right before the race,I said to myself,"What Value". Thought it was crazy.

[rokitman]

Gloat until your heart's content. If you can't gloat when you hit a 50-1 shot, when can ya? Fock the wet blankets :eek:

[Fastracehorse]

We know you liked that horse - I was wondering why you think the public didn't like your horse.

Great job.

fffastt

[46zilzal]

Statred following the ponies about the time of Tim Tam and NEVER heard the term redboard until coming here. What is the origin of that title?

[Overlay]

My guess would be that it would have arisen from touts selling tip sheets outside racetracks, and using red boards to post their "winners" from previous days' races (which had all been doctored to reflect the actual winner after the races were run, or which had been printed up before the race, but with every horse running mentioned on different sheets, so the tout could always say he had had the winner, and have a sheet to prove it). The color red would have been used as an attention-getting device. (Either that, or the touts would have highlighted or circled their "winning" picks on the sheets in red to draw attention to them.)

[kingfin66]

I don't think the tone is at all negative about your post. I think everybody is happy for you. As for gloating, go for it!

[Geekyguy]

The horse goes first time turf. The horse has Forty Niner on the Sires side and Danzig on the dam's side. The horse is put at 8-1 morning line(2 of the 3 handicappers in the paper have it second) The public lets it go off at 46-1!!! When I saw that at OTB,I said I have to put 10 dollars to win on it and throw it over the field in a 2 dollar exacta. The horse rolled by the field to pay $95.00 over a $569.00 exacta. The horse was 8-1 morning line!!! The guy next to me goes"these races are so rigged,the horse has shown nothing,then he wins at 44-1!!" Obviously he didnt see that the horses races were run on dirt, not turf. BIG oversight in his handicapping.

The horse was a Mr. Prospector-Northern Dancer cross then, so grass shouldn't have been an issue. The ML seemed to reflect the pedigree.

I saw in a book once a warning about the "outcast," or a horse who is more than double or triple its morning line (double if the ML is under 10-1 or triple if over it).

In the 1999 Belmont, Vision And Verse was 20-1 on the ML and 54-1 on the board, btw.

Figure if you're an owner and see 44-1 on your 8-1 shot you'd be telling the jock to kill the horse if he had to in order to win.

[toetoe]

HB,
Good hit.

Andicap,

Your first post reminded me of something we don't have anymore -- the winners' line. A separate window for cashing tickets. Of course, the average 'winner' felt the right to redboard. He might not be in this line again for weeks and, by God, he was gonna give his crackpot rationale for the bet.

Also, I'll have you know I'm a TOLERANT jackass. And having followed nbp's methods, I'd call his knowledge expensive, not expansive.

Disclaimer: Last sentence just another feeble joke.

[JustRalph]

The first time I was in Vegas (82-83 maybe) a buddy hit a jackpot deal on a slot machine. He had about 800 bucks in quarters if I remember right. An employee of the casino came over and asked him if he wanted to cash it in. He said yes..........she pointed him at a certain window at the cashier cage. She called it "the winners line" the one thing I remember about the winners line.......as soon as you left the "winners line" and walked ten feet away across the casino you would be approached by a couple of the most beautiful women in the world. They would ask you "do you want to party" Not sure ......what they meant? :eek:

[betchatoo]

as soon as you left the "winners line" and walked ten feet away across the casino you would be approached by a couple of the most beautiful women in the world. They would ask you "do you want to party" Not sure ......what they meant? :eek:

If I remember right they were talking about joining a local political party. It had some strange initiation rites that included making a large campaign contibution and everyone getting naked

[RaceIsClosed]

Another one of these won today at Philadelphia Park: 8-1 in the program, 39-1 on the board.

Gotta love any angle that gives one a reason to bet an $80 horse. Too bad I didn't know he was 35-1, but I probably wouldn't have had it anyway. Very logical contender too. The ML was accurate, but the public just fell asleep.

[point given]

"In the 1999 Belmont, Vision And Verse was 20-1 on the ML and 54-1 on the board, "

Thanks for the memory of the '99 Belmont. It seems that that was the last time I cashed a nice ticket, :D on that exacta which paid $1500. The reason I bet it was that I absolutley hated the favorites in the race and was fishing and then realized that they had skipped the other triple crown races and prepped him at Belmont for the race. BTW; I remember that I was at the Meadowlands that day and that the track handicapper Brad Thomas gave out the horse on air(unbenownst to me) at Monmouth which had their own pool for the Belmont. The on track bettors at Monmouth pounded Brads picks in their pool and it only paid about $500 there !

[toetoe]

PG,

Remember the two separate pools that day? CD had the Belmont Stakes carded as CD Race 11, or something, and the prices at CD, if I'm not turned around here, were much higher than at BEL, for Vision And Verse. It was something like a $30 difference in the place price. How to check these things, I wonder.

[GeTydOn]

"In the 1999 Belmont, Vision And Verse was 20-1 on the ML and 54-1 on the board, "

Thanks for the memory of the '99 Belmont. It seems that that was the last time I cashed a nice ticket, :D on that exacta which paid $1500. The reason I bet it was that I absolutley hated the favorites in the race and was fishing and then realized that they had skipped the other triple crown races and prepped him at Belmont for the race. BTW; I remember that I was at the Meadowlands that day and that the track handicapper Brad Thomas gave out the horse on air(unbenownst to me) at Monmouth which had their own pool for the Belmont. The on track bettors at Monmouth pounded Brads picks in their pool and it only paid about $500 there !

Most oddsmakers don't go over 20-1 on the morning line except in extreme cases. In really extreme cases MLs will go over 30-1. But rarely. I've never understood that.

[BIG RED]

Sat. 2-18, SH 8-1 ml., Brick Flight, wins and pays $85.40 :confused:

I was watching this because I was interested in a certain horse that ran in this race.

[toetoe]

I think the Saul Arias horse that paid $183 at Santa Anita was at 50-to-1(!) on the morning line. Wild stuff. :jump:

[the little guy]

I think the Saul Arias horse that paid $183 at Santa Anita was at 50-to-1(!) on the morning line. Wild stuff. :jump:

That horse was a standout....a total lock.

[toetoe]

By now, I think he's changed his name to Paul Arias.

[Niko]

I wonder if there's more of this happening nowadays because of the late
co-mingled money coming in and computerized betting? Maybe this answers a way to take advantage of computerized betting which Paceadvantage was looking for in another thread. Maybe the right horses in the right places that appear to be dead on the board will turn into super overlays?

[RaceIsClosed]

I wonder if there's more of this happening nowadays because of the late
co-mingled money coming in and computerized betting? Maybe this answers a way to take advantage of computerized betting which Paceadvantage was looking for in another thread. Maybe the right horses in the right places that appear to be dead on the board will turn into super overlays?

The name of the angle is the Outcast, for obvious reasons. From what I can see, almost all of the horses on this angle try hard, indicating that the connections just decide to go for it once they see the odds.