andicap
06-05-2002, 10:49 PM
In Ken Massa's May HTR newsletter, he presents an interesting method for calculating a horse's consistency and quality. The "GL8 rating" is a way of rating how good a horse's recent record is. Massa's theory is that traditional ways of judging "good" efforts are misleading.
His rules: go back 8 races. In each race, award a horse 1 point if they meet any of the following three conditions:
-- was on or within 1 length of lead at 2nd call
-- on or within 2 lengths of lead at stretch call.
-- won or finished within 3 lengths.
He then presents statistical evidence to show the validity of the method although he says it is not by itself an angle, but, like Quirin points, a way to evaluate a field.
My question: Can you judge the ability of a field by calcuating the GL 8 of each horse and arriving at a median or average, and use it as a tool to decide if a field was above or below average in quality compared to today's?
His rules: go back 8 races. In each race, award a horse 1 point if they meet any of the following three conditions:
-- was on or within 1 length of lead at 2nd call
-- on or within 2 lengths of lead at stretch call.
-- won or finished within 3 lengths.
He then presents statistical evidence to show the validity of the method although he says it is not by itself an angle, but, like Quirin points, a way to evaluate a field.
My question: Can you judge the ability of a field by calcuating the GL 8 of each horse and arriving at a median or average, and use it as a tool to decide if a field was above or below average in quality compared to today's?