Betting Smartly & Precisely

[DrugSalvastore]

One big mistake that a lot of bettors make--in my opinion--is that they rely to much on betting wheels and boxes and they don't bet their opinions with nearly as much precision and aggression as they should.

I think people look at races with a ''how can I make money on this race" mindset. That outlook leads to a lot of careless wheels and boxes--and horses that should never be included, get included into bets. People are more likely to profit on a race with that approach--but in a game with a barbaricly high takeout--that is just the wrong way to look at things.

I've always believed that you should bet your opinion with a "If I'm dead on I want to be rewarded nicely, but if I'm a little off or a lot off I'll accept losing" mindset. I bet a lot of one-way exactas, and it's not any fun losing when your two horses come in the wrong way, but I know I'm making it easier on myself to show a long term profit. You leave yourself open to losing streaks this way, and losing streaks are a tough part of this game, but if you can build up your ego as high as I've built up mine, I think you will be able to fight through any kind of losing streak, and all the negativity that comes from losing won't get to you as much.

My best betting advice to other bettors would be to bet your opinion with aggression and precision much more often--and to try to aviod betting a lot of boxes and wheels simply because you are more likely to profit on a race by doing so. If you don't think you have the character to deal with longer losing streaks, than maybe it's not the best thing for you. Just my take on that.

[DrugSalvastore]

I should add something to this. If your opinion involves loving a longshot, you really don't need to be very precise and aggressive. An example would be Giacomo in the Kentucky Derby--you don't need to get real cute with a 50-to-1 shot. I played wheels all over with Giacomo in the Derby, but I really hurt myself by not using Closing Arguement on any tickets.

I thought it was a waste of money to include CA because he really had no shot to hit the board on paper. If he would have run 12th instead of 2nd I would have made a SUPER killing on the race. The ALL button is very over-used. This is the only situation I ever remember where using the all button would have helped me a great deal.

I made my Derby bets for my mother, through my Pinnacle account, before I left for the races. Here is how I invested her money on the race---my bets were similar, but I just bet more money.

39297148-1
21http://www21.pinnaclesports.com/images/ps_minus_sign.jpg10:47am
7-May-057-May-05Horses
Win/Place/ShowChurchill, Race #10
10.Giacomo18.00 486.60(3 x 6.00)10.Giacomo

39297192-1
22http://www21.pinnaclesports.com/images/ps_minus_sign.jpg10:47am
7-May-057-May-05Horses
ExactaChurchill, Race #10
10.Giacomo/ 3.Sun King, 11....5.00-5.00(5 x 1.00)10.Giacomo
with
3.Sun King, 11.High Fly, 12.Afleet Alex, 15.Bandini, 16.Bellamy Road

39297239-1
23http://www21.pinnaclesports.com/images/ps_minus_sign.jpg10:48am
7-May-057-May-05Horses
ExactaChurchill, Race #10
15.Bandini, 16.Bellamy Road...12.00-12.00(2 x 6.00)15.Bandini, 16.Bellamy Road
with
10.Giacomo

39297301-1
24http://www21.pinnaclesports.com/images/ps_minus_sign.jpg10:49am
7-May-057-May-05Horses
ExactaChurchill, Race #10
3.Sun King, 7.Flower Alley,...10.00-10.00(5 x 2.00)3.Sun King, 7.Flower Alley, 11.High Fly, 12.Afleet Alex, 14.Wilko
with
10.Giacomo

39297587-1
26http://www21.pinnaclesports.com/images/ps_minus_sign.jpg10:52am
7-May-057-May-05Horses
TrifectaChurchill, Race #10
11.High Fly, 12.Afleet Alex...20.00-20.00(20 x 1.00)11.High Fly, 12.Afleet Alex, 15.Bandini, 16.Bellamy Road
with
3.Sun King, 11.High Fly, 12.Afleet Alex, 14.Wilko, 15.Bandini, 16.Bellamy Road
with
10.Giacomo

[Valuist]

In Beyer's second book, "The Winning Horseplayer", he devotes a chapter to exotic wagering. He goes into detail about "constructing a situation". This is basically having a negative opinion or two on the favorite(s) or horses getting overbet then plotting out different exacta or trifecta combinations to take advantage of these negative opinions, with the heavier bet "crusher" combos as well as some small savers. The chapter alone makes the book worth reading. IMO, its his best book but for some reason seems to be forgotten behind the others.

[Fwizard]

I also used to box and wheel all the time and since I stopped and played more one way tickets I have increased my bottom line, yea it hurts when you play a $30 exacta one way and it comes out the other but it feels great when you nail it perfectly--The only place where I still wheel is on trifecta in third place--always a saver with my top pick, my contenders and then all for third because anything can run third.

The reason I changed was that I got tired of wheeling pic 3's , and exacta only to have the favorite win and lose money or break even on the bet.

[oddswizard]

Excellent information. I agree too many handicappers use too many horses re wheels. It is vital to be prepared prior to attending the races. Develop a wagering strategy that makes sense & doesn't cost a fortune. Bet a little to win a lot and stick with it. Best advice: Think like an investor not a gambler.

[Valuist]

In terms of spreading out, I have contrasting views re: exactas/trifectas and Pic 3s. I do believe in spreading out in the exacta and trifecta. Have done quite well using those, but I don't like to spread out a lot in the Pic 3. When the Pic 3 first came out, the tracks I played only had one or 2 a day. Back in those days, there was a greater urgency to "stay alive", and I would play many more combinations. Now, with rolling Pic 3s, why bother spreading too deep? If you're out after leg one, just start again with the next race. Now I never go more than 4 deep in a race, and usually no more than 3 deep in the deepest race of the sequence.

[twindouble]

I also used to box and wheel all the time and since I stopped and played more one way tickets I have increased my bottom line, yea it hurts when you play a $30 exacta one way and it comes out the other but it feels great when you nail it perfectly--The only place where I still wheel is on trifecta in third place--always a saver with my top pick, my contenders and then all for third because anything can run third.

The reason I changed was that I got tired of wheeling pic 3's , and exacta only to have the favorite win and lose money or break even on the bet.


Fwizard; I agree it isn't a good idea to dilute your wager when you think it isn't necessary and that boils down to how you see the race overall. Yes, it's a good feeling when we come up with that cold 1,2 wager and it is a confidence builder. Who here wouldn't put a feather in their hat when they post the order of finish, esp when there's value involved regardless of their handicapping methods.

It can be exausting reading all the input here and other forums as the what's the best way to approach this game and be successful at it for long term. Wagering strategies are inportant but within that there has to be flexability including an open mind when it comes to your handicapping. There's no absolute rules anyone can apply on either. What works for you or others may very well have nothing to do with the guy that made that huge score on a given day. My thoughts have always been drilling home the basic common sense handicapping and wagering principles that to me have held up for many years. Many of those have been discussed here, not only by me but many other experienced players. Not withstanding all the books that have been written on the subjects.

I will say straight up, anyone who follows the horses on a regular bases and applies all the basics and has a reasonable bankroll has the edge over the majority of players. What consitutes success is a personal thing and will vary from player to player.

I'm no longer confused about so-called pace handicappers, from what I gather they don't ignore the basics or any other handicapping factors we triditional handicappers rely on. Lets face it all we can do is guess at what the pace will be, if those figures can further define it, they should become part of your handicapping. Right?

I'm not going to revist what I think are the basics or common sense factors when it comes to handicapping or wagering, they will come up again when beginners post questions.

Good luck,

T.D.

[skate]

drugsal;;


well i was about to post before i read your second post, and that (2nd) post covers me, even to the bank.

the odds will finalize my bet.

when things get boring, i may bet the chalk (9/1 or less) to win, but when i find my price horse, i'll bet him every way till sunday. (whatever that means?)

[Fwizard]

Twindouble,

I agree with what I think was your main point--be flexible and have no rigid rules-find out what works for you by keeping records of your bets and seeing what you do best--I have a friend who swears by pic-3's and always wheels races in where maidens races have any FTS. He has hit a ticket or two that were monsters so he assumed that was the best method for him. Since he bets at winticket we did research on his pic3 results and saw he actually was losing money because on many of those tickets he hit were small pays when chalk came in --he was showing a profit though on three number exacta boxes(which I dont play but he loves) so now he plays that more and has had more success.

Of course knowing what to play when helps too...two weeks back I liked a horse at Saratoga that won at $28.80..but of course instead of playing him to I played exacta combo's with four horses and when a 17-1 ran second I didn't have it..so I outthought myself...and that is horse racing!!

[how cliche]

I suggest we players go contrary to human nature from time to time and look inward for answers. Here is what's central to DrugS' post, imo. We're all gamblers, who put our money in the pools often enough on marginal opinions. It doesn't matter what your method of prognostication. We all do it. On those every day wagers, sure go ahead and hedge w/ wheels, boxes, the ALL button, place bets, whatever. Manage your money to yeild a minor profit or loss over a long period of time. BUT, from time to time each of us will gather information that makes us KNOW our horse is a winner. If you've played this game long enough, you understand what I'm talking about. Again, it matters not your method of handicapping. In those moments, we are right to combat the doubts inherrent in human nature, and really GAMBLE. One must be introspective to know the difference between a marginal opinion and an opinion of the year. I think you all know what I mean. The level of confidence prior to the race doesn't come about all that often, so make it count. Time to go all in...with a swagger...because you won't lose.

[twindouble]

I suggest we players go contrary to human nature from time to time and look inward for answers. Here is what's central to DrugS' post, imo. We're all gamblers, who put our money in the pools often enough on marginal opinions. It doesn't matter what your method of prognostication. We all do it. On those every day wagers, sure go ahead and hedge w/ wheels, boxes, the ALL button, place bets, whatever. Manage your money to yeild a minor profit or loss over a long period of time. BUT, from time to time each of us will gather information that makes us KNOW our horse is a winner. If you've played this game long enough, you understand what I'm talking about. Again, it matters not your method of handicapping. In those moments, we are right to combat the doubts inherrent in human nature, and really GAMBLE. One must be introspective to know the difference between a marginal opinion and an opinion of the year. I think you all know what I mean. The level of confidence prior to the race doesn't come about all that often, so make it count. Time to go all in...with a swagger...because you won't lose.

how chiche; I take it you play poker as well as the horses. I like what you had to say, ESP " we are all gamblers," (risk takers). Handicappers should understand their goal is to limit the risk involved and that applies to all aspects of their financial condition as well as the horses they wager on.

There's a lot to say on the subject of gambling and limiting the risk factor but I have head off to work, will add to it tonight.


Good luck today,

T.D.