Simple Systems

[Molock]

Okay, I know the word "system" is anethama, but for some reason, some part of me thinks that there may be an automated way of doing things for at least some races, such as when having a 100,000 Stakes or Allowance race picking the overwhelming favorite (20% profit during one year). I'm looking for other "systems" that while not black box or completely automated, don't require a degree in mathematics to carry out. Anyone know a place on the Net that discusses "systems" without charging you for their own? :-)

[John]

If you cannot find it on this board you will not find it at all.....Most any angle [ stake race favorite ] or what have you will be a discussion here.

[ranchwest]

I suggest you start finding other people's ideas and also contribute your own and keep detailed, accurate records of the success or lack thereof of each method.

[Tom]

Here's and old one that has been profitable for many years -
1. Horse is dropping in class
2. Rider change to a leading ride or a rider who has won with
the horse before
3. Horse showed improved early speed last time out

This get a lot of winners at FL evey year. Penn has not been to bad, either.

[alyingthief]

tom, you are a good guy.

[NormanTD]

Try this one. No long term results to verify but it should be easy to test with Equibase charts...

Bet the first horse of the day that goes off at less than even money to place. So only one bet per track per day at the most.

I've spot checked this from time to time and it has generally broke about even. I have no real documented results so YMMV.

Steve (AKA NormanTD)

[Molock]

Yep, these are the kind of systems I'm looking for. The above is similar to one I read where you look for the horse that is going off as the odds on favorite and is the consensus among two different columnists (the system was developed in the 60s and the columnists aren't around anymore), but I was thinking it could be modified a bit.

[Foolish Pleasure]

Simple system, toss all favorites.

After years of outperforming the market by a robust 7%, they now underperform by 3%. Given that folks still use dated garbage information, there will always be legions of book buyers, thinking and betting just the opposite.

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by Foolish Pleasure
Simple system, toss all favorites.

After years of outperforming the market by a robust 7%, they now underperform by 3%. Given that folks still use dated garbage information, there will always be legions of book buyers, thinking and betting just the opposite.


Is that true? My recent analysis of toteboard data shows the favorite taken from the 2 minute to post mark winning more often than he should by a few percentage points at least.

Also, I doubt there are "legions" of book buyers, at least relative to the total size of the betting public. I bet that a VERY small percentage of people bet the way they do because they read it in a book. Now a book like MODERN PACE HANDICAPPING is probably quite influential, but how many people at the track have actually read it?

[Tom]

Originally posted by GameTheory



I bet that a VERY small percentage of people bet the way they do because they read it in a book. Now a book like MODERN PACE HANDICAPPING is probably quite influential, but how many people at the track have actually read it?

We got us a special secction at Finger Lakes where we put the "readers!"

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by GameTheory



Is that true? My recent analysis of toteboard data shows the favorite taken from the 2 minute to post mark winning more often than he should by a few percentage points at least.

Also, I doubt there are "legions" of book buyers, at least relative to the total size of the betting public. I bet that a VERY small percentage of people bet the way they do because they read it in a book. Now a book like MODERN PACE HANDICAPPING is probably quite influential, but how many people at the track have actually read it?

I'm sure that only a very small percentage of those wagering on the races have even read one book on handicapping. However, I do often wonder how many of the big players use a developed strategy. I suspicion quite a bit of the money goes down based on trainers, jockeys and morning line, but I don't know how much.

[so.cal.fan]

FP strongly suggests:

"Simple system, toss all favorites".

I like that!

Seriously, I'm sure no math wiz, but wouldn't you almost guarantee yourself of value this way? Not every instance, of course, but over the long haul?
I have a simple rule: If I select the favorite, I turn the page....next!

[Foolish Pleasure]

Yes it is true. At least upto 5/31/02-going 45000 races back.

As far as legions, people that even just have a fringe knowledge of racing have quoted that book at least three times in the last year to me, that is an undefined quanity more than it should be.

Toss in the infininte queries and virtually zero +ROI angles come out and even your sim. pace guys say look for 4/1 and up.

[Tom]

OK, toss the favorite. Now what. What does that db tell you too do now? Turf speed is underbet, uh......OK, so who do you bet?
Every odds category shows a long term loss if you bet every horse. The idea of handicapping is to find reasons to like certain horses, not every non favorite of turf speed horse. You say you have 45,000 races to base these ideas on. Ok, other than Dick Schmidt <G> who would bet all 45,000 of them? If you are using races for tracks you will never play, what good is the statistic? Favs and second favs win about 50%of all races, so that is pretty good chunk of ponies to be throwing out just becasue they are low odds. 20-1 shots don't pay when they don't win and they don't win nearly as often as you would like to think. am no ttrying to start an argument, but I think databases have limits and just throwing out lone stats doesn't get you the winner. I am not a big fan of db handicapping, even though I use HTR. I prefer to handicap, and use trends and things observed in the db as a bit of knowledge, not a a rule. I have read posts about people that enter all the tracks everyday into a db and then spit out proven profitable plays. But they don't put in the scratches, so the rankings are not wight to start with.
Last night, I had a major problem - somewhere in my db, I somehow got a line added in the column for the Beyer speed figure. Every race after that error was one line off, so evey Beyer was wrong! I caught it when I was updating my pars and found a $20,000 claimer that earned a 25 Beyer. I had to look in to the error and when I realized what had happedned, I had to go line by line until I found the error. Hours and hours of checking with past issues of SW and Charts Weekly. The error happened in mid 2000, so I looked at a lot races before I found it. Must have happened during a recent sort, I don't know - it was once correct and then it wasn't. Much like like at the track....good one day, bad the next and no idea what went wrong.
Just MHO. Good disccussion, though.

[Dick Schmidt]

Regarding Books,

I believe it's true that very few bettors actually read racing books. They for damn sure don't buy very many. However, the people who influence the crowd do read. The guys who make the morning lines, the columnists, the touts and pickers in the Form. When I first printed Pace Makes The Race, I took a bunch down to the Racing Form and gave them out to all the writers as a thank you for allowing us to use their PP's and charts. I heard back from many, including both the then current "Sweep" and "Trackman" (for SoCal) telling me that they were now using pace in their selections. Even Andy Beyer now accepts pace as having some impact on a race. For years he not only ignored it, but proclaimed that it didn't matter at all. Tom Brohamer convinced him otherwise.

Call this the trickle-down theory of handicapping knowledge.

Dick

[Lindsay]

Dick: Was it Brohamer who convinced Beyer that pace was important, or was it the 1981 Kentucky Derby?

[Dick Schmidt]

As late as 1990, Beyer told me to my face that pace was a crock. Somehow I didn't ask him to review our book.

Dick

[Lindsay]

You should have asked him to review your book, Dick. He wouldn't have been able to call pace a crock without disavowing the book he wrote in 1983.

[Foolish Pleasure]

Database Nonsense
OK, toss the favorite. Now what. What does that db tell you too do now? Turf speed is underbet, uh......OK, so who do you bet?

FOR SOME REASON THE POSTER ASKED A SIMPLE QUESTION AND YOU FELT A NEED TO RIDICULE DB HANDICAPPING, WHICH IS ABOUT AS FAR FROM HOW I HANDICAP AS POSSIBLE, THE FACT THAT I HAPPEN TO USE BROAD BASED TRENDS AS A BASIC GUIDELINE GIVES ME AN EDGE VS THOSE THAT DON'T.

Every odds category shows a long term loss if you bet every horse. The idea of handicapping is to find reasons to like certain horses, not every non favorite of turf speed horse.

OK GENIUS, I'VE SEEN MORE RACES THAN ANY OTHER HUMAN ON EARTH, PERIOD. SAVE YOUR REHETORIC FOR THE NEXT GUY LOOKING TO BUY A BOOK.


You say you have 45,000 races to base these ideas on.

NO I SAID OF THE LAST 45,000 RACES, PLUS AN INABILITY OF BOTH PACE SIMULATOR GUYS AND DBASE GUYS TO CONSISTENTLY PRODUCE AN OBJECTIVE SYSTEM THAT SHOWS A POSITIVE ROI FOR BETTING FAVORITES.


Ok, other than Dick Schmidt <G> who would bet all 45,000 of them? If you are using races for tracks you will never play, what good is the statistic?

INTERESTING, I'M AN ACTUARY, THINK I HAVE A CLUE AS TO RELEVANCE, BEYOND THE FACT, THAT I CAN BET MORE TRACKS THAN I HAVE ACCESS TO STATISTICS FOR.


Favs and second favs win about 50%of all races, so that is pretty good chunk of ponies to be throwing out just becasue they are low odds.

OK, SO THERE SHOULD BE NO BIAS TOWARDS ANY PARTICULAR PRICE, WELL FUNNY THING IS THAT THERE IS, DENY IT AS MUCH AS YOU LIKE.

20-1 shots don't pay when they don't win and they don't win nearly as often as you would like to think.

HEY POMPOUS ASS, YOU KNOW WHAT I THINK? BE REAL, WHO EXACTLY DO YOU THINK YOU'RE EDUCATING HERE? FACT IS FAVORITES LOSE MORE THAN THE MARKET, PERIOD. ARGUE TILL YOUR BLUE IN THE FACE, THIS IS NOT NEW, IT HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR AT LEAST THE LAST SEVEN YEARS.

am no ttrying to start an argument, but I think databases have limits and just throwing out lone stats doesn't get you the winner.

ok tOM, YOU TELL ME HOW i THINK, THENi TOSS OUT A PERTINENT STATISTIC AND YOU ASSUME YOU KNOW HOWQ I HANDICAP, THE GUY ASKED FOR SYSTEMS, FAVORITES HAVE BEEN OVERBET FOR AT LEAST THE LAST SEVEN YEARS, YOU ANSWERED TRHE ORIGINAL POST WITH WHAT????

I am not a big fan of db handicapping, even though I use HTR. I prefer to handicap, and use trends and things observed in the db as a bit of knowledge, not a a rule.

DID THE ORIGINAL POSTER ASK HOW DO YOU HANDICAP? HE ASKED FOR A SYSTEM, YOU'VE CONTRIBUTED ABSOLUTELY ZILCH THUS FAR OTHER THAN PERHAPS STATING THE OBVIOUS.



I have read posts about people that enter all the tracks everyday into a db and then spit out proven profitable plays. But they don't put in the scratches, so the rankings are not wight to start with.

I AM NOT AN DB BETTOR, SO I GUESS I WOULDN'T BE ONE OF THOSE PEOPLE EVEN THOUGH I USE A DB, WHY? ONLY BECAUSE MY ROI WENT UP ABOUT 1.5% SINCE I STARTED USING IT.


Last night, I had a major problem - somewhere in my db, I somehow got a line added in the column for the Beyer speed figure. Every race after that error was one line off, so evey Beyer was wrong! I caught it when I was updating my pars and found a $20,000 claimer that earned a 25 Beyer. I had to look in to the error and when I realized what had happedned, I had to go line by line until I found the error. Hours and hours of checking with past issues of SW and Charts Weekly. The error happened in mid 2000, so I looked at a lot races before I found it. Must have happened during a recent sort, I don't know - it was once correct and then it wasn't. Much like like at the track....good one day, bad the next and no idea what went wrong.
Just MHO. Good disccussion, though.


THE BOTTOMLINE, THE POSTER ASKED FOR A SYSYTEM, YOU CHOSE TO BLAST DB 'CAPPERS, MY POST IN PARTICULAR, THEN YOU YOURSELF, CONCEDED YOU USE HTR, WHY? YOU'RE JUST RETROFITTING TRENDS? WE ALL KNOW WHY, BECUASE THE INFORMATION HELPS THE BOTTOM LINE.

THE POSTER IS STILL WAITING FOR USEFUL INFORMATION FROM YOU TOM, THINK TRENDS AREN'T IMPORTANT, NO HARD RULES? DO YOU BET FIRST TIME STARTERS GOING TWO TURNS ON THE DIRT EVER? HAS ONLY BEEN ONE OF THE BIGGEST FLAT BET LOSERS AT THE TRACK SINCE 1978, BUT IN YOUR WORLD, AT SOME POINT THERE MAY BE ONE THAT WOULD BE A GOOD BET, AS YOU DON'T HAVE ANY HARDENED RULES. IT'S CALLED DENYING REALITY, BEST OF LUCK WITH IT.

JUST SO THERE ARE NO MORE MISTAKES GOING FORWARD, I AM A PACE/TRIP HANDICAPPER, I USE A DB JUST LIKE ANY OTHER INFORMATION.

[Foolish Pleasure]

The idea of handicapping is to find reasons to like certain horses

REALLY? THE IDEA OF HANDICAPPING IS TO MAKE MONEY, IT HAS SO LITTLE TO DO WITH LIKING/DISLIKING HORSES IT'S PATHETIC.

[Foolish Pleasure]

You also seem fixated on my posts regarding speed on the turf.

Funny thing, as even the rankest beginner DBer, will inevitably discover this within' the first day of acquiring a DB.

But you're right Tom, why care afterall on a race by race basis any given closer could be a good bet.

ROTFLMAO at you!

[Tom]

Did we forget our meds this weekend?
You should seek some professional help before it is too late.
And remember these two words of wisdom.......

SHIFT key!

(please see my Avatar)

[Foolish Pleasure]

Good job, way to yet again address the original post. I expected nothing less.

The caps obviously are there to denote my response to your snide post.

[Rpd]

Tom,

I have been debating whether the avatar was a man with a curly lock on his forheard or a horse's ass. Now I know :)

To be serious, FP, just because a poster gives his opinion and may not relate to the orginal post does not mean it is not valuable food for thought. The give and take and opinions on this board makes us all think deeper into the issue.

If you don't agree with someone, just say so in a logical and well stated manner. Going off on incepid tangents serves no one.

I for one, enjoy Tom's witty insites. Maybe since I cut my handicapping teeth at the Thumb too.

Thanks,

[Tom]

Rpd....

Do you still play the "thumb?" Finally, they offer simulcasting and should have slots later this year. That should help the turn-over of the Zweigler's a bit <G>.

BTW, the Avatar is not just any horse's *ss, it is War Emblems's
*ss. Had he won the triple crown, I would have had to pay royalties on it! <G>

[Rpd]

Tom,

Yes I still play the Thumb along with Penn Nat. Guess I'm hooked on that type of class horse. Am also a ex-Sartin devotee, went to all the seminars in NY & NJ when he had them there.

Does Chuck Mangione still show up at the track?

Keeping to the post though, here is a simple system using the Belmont as an example. Add the best Bris Fig (last 6 weeks) to the Bris Dist Fig and factor in some elementary form analysis to get your contenders. Total-BrisSpeedFig-BrisDistFig

Proud Citizen 220-108-112 injured? Preakness effort too much?
Sunday Break 219-107-112 3rd - 14 days too soon after big effort?
Perfect Drift 219-108-111 too long away?
Sarva 216-104-112 1st weak class but improving?
Med. D'oro 216-108-108 2nd if we liked him in the Derby and Preakness as low odds, should have loved him at 16-1
War Emblem 215-113-102 12F distance? Preakness effort too much?
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Dubai 214-99-115
WFerry 213-105-108
Like A Hero 210-95-115
Magic W 202-108-94
Artax 195-94-101


I guess my point is all I heard before the race was that War Emblem could make the distance. His Bris distance rating was 102. I believe he was ahead at 10. Not withstanding his start and his trip, maybe 12 was just too much.

This is just something I've been looking at. No substantial data to back it up yet. I didn't bet the Belmont, was totally confused. I should qualify that I am looking at this when distance is an unknown. When most have raced the distance than the Bris distance rating is not applied.

[Amazin]

I think that if anyone out there has a really good system that works really good,they're not going to post it.If you found a goldmine,would you go and tell everyone where it is?No brainer.I am reluctant to post my good stuff until it turns blasee(as the french would say).Then you write a book or become a system seller.

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by Rpd
[B]
Does Chuck Mangione still show up at the track?


Does he do the bugling too? That I'd like to see.

AD